It has been a while since my last offering on this blog, but tomorrow at Southwell presents an opportunity too good to miss despite the low grade nature of the race.
The Alan McCabe trained Il Battista returns to the fibresand after a string of poor efforts on both turf and polytrack off what looks a very feasible mark of 70 to conduct business with.
He has run some huge speed figures at this track last year on my ratings, and he should be capable of going in off this mark of 70, over his favourite trip of 7f. His course form reads 122 and his final start here when second to Fred Willets produced a big speed figure for the grade.
Equipped with first time blinkers (with eye-shield) he has the services of Declan Cannon who is good value for his 3lb claim and I can’t see him being out the frame tomorrow off what is a good draw.
Sadly I have already missed the 10/1 offered early by Bet365, but the current 7/1 still being offered by both Bet365 and William Hill represent significant value in my eyes, and I’ll still be getting involved (I have priced him up as around a 7/2 chance).
2pts win – Il Battista @ 7-1 with Bet365 or William Hill
This post was written by The Duke
Owner of OHRacing; and one of many racing enthusiasts around the world. Try to specialise in the art of speed figures, growing increasingly interested in Australian racing. Hates the winter and generally dislikes National Hunt racing (apart from the Cheltenham Festival). Spend far too much time burning the midnight oil inputting ratings into spreadsheets and generally trying to make the game pay.
Can be seen on Twitter @OHRacing, and marauding through the OHRacing betting community.
Ricky fairbank
Posted on Tuesday 4th October, 2011, 12:01am
When do you stop forgiving horses for bad runs and just except that they may never return to previous form?? Would like your feed back
James Milican
Posted on Tuesday 4th October, 2011, 5:02pm
Fantastic tip once again The Duke.
Matt Sharp
Posted on Wednesday 5th October, 2011, 1:50am
Congrats with this one, thought we were in trouble early but did it well in the end – Matt
The Duke
Posted on Wednesday 5th October, 2011, 1:57am
It depends really Ricky, some horses like Il Battista are pretty much one surface horses and thus I’d be looking to give them one, maybe two more tries back on a surface they’ve created big ratings on before dismissing them, despite poor figures elsewhere.
Horses aren’t machines and I usually find when a horse clocks a massive speed figure they wont reproduce it next time, but will return to a similar level of form when it next runs, this was evident with Frankel between Newmarket and Ascot, and he returned to form at Goodwood (just an example).
Usually i’d give them around 2 runs, but it depends on what sort of tracks/ground they are running on and where they clocked their best ratings. Majority of horses begin to show a pattern where they perform best (which is how I picked out Prince Of Johanne) and if you build up a profile you can use this to your advantage.