Dubai Carnival – Week 3 Times

The analysis below is for the January 29th 2009 meeting at Nad Al Sheba (Dubai Racing Carnival). Some of the horses have since run and gone well, I’ll be updating with the latest card reviews during the week.

8f – Dirt – Normal
90 – Fares
89 – Grand Hombre
88 – Fateh Field
86 – Aamaaq
85 – Art Of War
Analysis: An improvement from Fares on his last figure (77) to take this dirt handicap. Grand Hombre returned to form back on dirt and was slightly unlucky not to be given more of a chance by his pilot. The race was run at an honest pace and the time looks about right. Fateh Field was well in on his turf number(96) posted here in Week 1, but couldn’t reproduce that effort first time up on dirt and should return to turf. Aamaaq has run (86) twice now in his last two starts so this looks an honest race with solid figures.

7.5f – Turf – Good
98 – Ragheed
97 – Yamal
94 – Mojito Royale
93 – Brave Tin Soldier
93 – Seihali
Analysis: A tough and punishing early pace saw this effort appear as very quick on the clock. I’m not overly sure on the form though. As Ragheed has a very in and out profile and isn’t one to trust massively. Yamal ran a good race in the fate of defeat and the efforts of Brave Tin Soldier can be upgraded, as can Underworld. Brave Tin Solider has already been mentioned in this column before but looks more of a dirt performer to me.

5f – Dirt – Normal
96 – Change Alley
96 – Tawaassol
93 – Bounty Quest
93 – Sarissa
91 – League Champion
Analysis: A solid time for this sprint and a good performance from the lightly raced Change Alley. Tawaassol showed a rejuvination on his old UK form and could be coming back the right way and the front three were clear of the remainder. League Champion ran to (92) when fourth here to Big City Man and looks a better animal at Jebel Ali.

10f – Dirt – Normal
93 – Dynamic Saint
91 – Moonquake
87 – Trust N Dustan
81 – Bennie Blue
78 – Irish Mayhem
Analysis: A solid pace for this mile and a quarter event and the front two once again pulled clear. Moonquake posted a career best effort of 91, after posting (75) when winning here at the start of January. He looks to be improving still. Irish Mayhem showed more promise back on dirt and encountered some trouble at the top of the straight but he still ran some 20lbs below his Polytrack form in the UK.

12f – Turf – Good
98 – Age Of Reason
93 – Young Mick
93 – Love Galore
90 – Far From Old
87 – Bon Spiel
Analysis: A steady gallop which was in line with standard fractions expected around here for this distance and trip. The winner improved markedly on his re-appearance and simply looked in a class of his own here as he strolled away from his rivals. Bon Spiel looked a non-stayer in my eyes and Young Mick ran well. Sanbuch didn’t run upto form of his last run and it appears his quirkyness still remains, despite having alot of ability.

9f – Turf – Good
90 – Silver Mist
90 – Third Set
89 – Kirklees
88 – Mashaahed
86 – With Interest
Analysis: A slow pace was set early and the front three are all capable of producing higher numbers than this. The winner was a strong selection by myself to win next time and he did so here despite being all out. Third Set once again ran to solid form and clearly thrives out here and Kirklees can certainly improve upon this coming from well off the pace in a race where off this sort of pace it’s hard to make up ground.

8f – Turf – Good
94 – Strategic News
92 – Furnace
92 – Fleeting Shadow
88 – Emirates Skyline
87 – Wise Dennis
Analysis: A strong pace and without doubt the strongest gallop set on the turf course all afternoon. This went with Strategic News who made up plenty of ground in the latter stages to fire home with a late rattle. He can improve on this and should take a similar event next time. The new recruit of Mubarak Bin Shafya; Furnace ran a big race on debut in Dubai and he could pick up a similar event also.

Dubai Carnival – Week 1 Times

I’ll start with the more recent (and first) meeting of the Dubai Racing Carnival, which was held last Thursday 15th January 2009.

7f – Dirt – Normal

86.63 – Sos Brilliante
84.63 – India Tiberna
81.63 – Purple Sage
79.13 – Jargelle
Analysis: Less than a thorough test by usual dirt standards here but a two useful performers in both the winner and second. Both with almost identical profiles the second was backed as if defeat was out of the question and both showed their quirks, with the winning flashing her tail and the second moody in the prelims. Both horses probably capable of improving on the numbers they’ve posted here but wouldn’t be ones to be taking short odds about.

7.5f – Turf – Good To Soft

97.42 – Silver Mist
96.17 – Fateh Field
90.92 – Seihali
88.17 – King Jock
Analysis: A good performance from the front two who pulled clear off a sound pace. The Mike De Kock trained winner came from a wide draw and has the potential to win again, those in behind the front two look likely to struggle as they failed to perform under sound fractions.

9f – Turf – Good To Soft
92.43 – Third Set
90.97 – Brave Tin Soldier
89.97 – Yasoodd
89.22 – With Interest
88.97 – Heartshead Maison
Analysis: A slow early pace certainly didn’t help Brave Tin Soldier who posted a blistering effort when running here last time and he probably did too much running mid-race to have anything left at the business end. The slow gallop certainly didn’t really test these and Third Set too can also be upgraded as he’s better off a stronger gallop. Heartshead Maison ran a huge race and too will be better suited to a strong gallop and over a slight bit further, that said the second placed horse interests me more than anything and is to be followed next time.

8f – Dirt – Normal
103.96 – My Indy
98.21 – Green Coast
94.46 – Don Renato
94.36 – Frosty Secret
91.86 – Gloria De Campeao
Analysis: The performance of the evening without a doubt but the winner showed worrying signs by flashing his tail when under pressure. That said he powered away from some useful rivals and the form looks strong with Green Coast filling second place (has won a handicap off 102). That said both Gloria De Campeao and Royal Vintage failed to run upto form and can be value for abit more than figures posted.

12f – Turf – Good To Soft
94.80 – Crime Scene
93.55 – Engrupido
90.55 – Age Of Reason
89.30 – Far From Old
89.05 – Sugar Ray
Analysis: Another race with slow early fractions and one which went to the admirable Crime Scene who goes well out here. The recent spin on dirt served him well and he picked up the race at a price. Engrupido ran well considering how the race panned out and remains of interest next time. Far From Old also ran well and is worth noting.

Non Carnival Time (Notables):
Big City Man 99.30 (08/01/2009)
Brave Tin Soldier 97.48 (01/01/2009)
Ekhtiaar 95.22 (26/12/2008)

Watchout for these three especially the top two.

The Resurgent Reg Hollinshead

Reg Hollinshead
Reg Hollinshead

Aged 84 his career as a successful trainer has spanned more than 60 years and during this time he has mentored numerous leading jockeys from both the flat and jumps including Kevin Darley, who was Champion Flat Jockey in 2000, Walter Swinburn, Leighton Aspell, Fergal Lynch, Willie Ryan and Paul Eddery.

Hollinshead has been quiet in regards to winners over the last five years, but showed signs of a return to better times in 2007, and has built on that now in 2008. Sending in regular winners, Hollinshead has posted his best strike-rate to date since before 2003, showing a winning strike-rate of 11.48%. Hollinshead has shown a profit of £521.30 (to £10 Stakes) since October this year for a winning strike-rate of 20% – that’s not including today’s winner Dancing Deano whom saluted at a price of 17/2 after being backed down from 16s.

In personal experience it’s always worth noting when Russell Kennemore rides for Mr Hollinshead, as being quite a tall lad he doesn’t get as many chances as he deserves, but is a lad Hollinshead regards very highly and makes best use of his remaining 3lb allowance. Despite the stats showing a loss of over £780 to £10 stakes, of late he’s been using Russell more sparingly and is worth judging based on recent times.

Andrea Atzeni is a jockey who has caught many an eye this summer, and the young Italian looks set to make himself a big name in the sport of Horse Racing, and he too has been noticed and utilised by Reg Hollinshead – and the pairing are worth backing blind when teaming up together. Showing a LSP (Level Stakes Profit) of £270 to £10 stakes, with a strike-rate of 66.67%. Another worth looking out for is a jockey I’m not to sure on, and is pretty much unknown to me but Mr Lee Newnes is a man who can get the job done, posting an unbeaten record (3/3) when riding for Reg Hollinshead, showing a LSP of £360.00 to £10 stakes, from just three rides. So is worth close consideration when booked to ride one of Mr Hollinshead’ horses.

Above is a list of jockeys whom over the last five years have shown a nice clear profit when riding for Mr Hollinshead, and are worth watching when booked to ride for him in future. His horses are usually that of lower grade animals, and thus you will be betting in poor class races with horses holding no real secrets from the handicapper, but whatever Reg Hollinshead is currently doing with his horses is paying massive dividends – and long may it continue!

Trainer Knowledge: Top 10 Trainers who beat the system

What is it about the same trainers who beat the handicapper year in year out? Do they have a canny knack of handicapping their horses to perfection year upon year, or does the handicapper give them a chance at certain stables as opposed to others?

I mean if you had a Nick Williams horse win a maiden on debut by three lengths, and a Sir Michael Stoute horse win the same race by the same distance – would they get handicapped the same? Or would the Sir Michael Stoute horse be handicapped on his trainers’ reputation and thus run the risk of being badly handicapped?

Some trainers consistently beat the handicapper each year despite the handicapper always trying new ways to get a handle on the horse. Sir Mark Prescott is a prime example of this and in many ways the master of beating the British Handicapping System, something which he has done successfully for decades.

The only problem is now is that once your typical Sir Mark Prescott horse has had it’s three runs over a trip short of it’s best as a two-year-old, when it returns in a Handicap as a three-year-old over a more suitable trip, the cat is usually already out of the bag. The new revolution of the betting exchange or Betfair as I’d prefer to call it – now gives a more realistic interpretation of a horses price, and with one so obviously well handicapped as a Prescott handicapper first time up, a lot of people will be queuing up to hit the ‘back’ button; so you need to start looking elsewhere for better prices on less exposed masters of this handicapping shrewdness.

Therefore the aim of this article is to pinpoint 9 other trainers who beat the Handicapping system on a regular basis and show a solid profit in the process, each trainer will be presented with a list of essential stats which will give you an idea as to how often they beat the system.

10.
David Elsworth
Bets: 855
Wins: 105
Strike Rate: 12.28%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £2,114.60

9.
Tom Tate
Bets: 286
Wins: 38
Strike Rate: 13.29%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £700.96


8.

David Wachman
Bets: 402
Wins: 57
Strike-Rate: 14.18%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £650.01


7.

Chris Wall
Bets: 725
Wins: 110
Strike-Rate: 15.17%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,277.90


6.

John Long
Bets: 106
Wins: 17
Strike-Rate: 16.04%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,410.08

Jane Chapple-Hyam; former wife of trainer Peter has had plenty of experience in horse racing. Working for sixteen years as Peter Chapple-Hyam’s assistant in both England and Hong Kong and in 2005 took a huge step into the training ranks herself. Now backed up by Jim & Fitri Hay her string only look like improving and she’s a woman who knows what she is doing.

5.
Jane Chapple-Hyam
Bets: 157
Wins: 27
Strike-Rate: 17.2%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £900.66

A chartered accountant and a competent racehorse trainer, Nick Williams may not have the horses as some of the more prominent stables in racing but he certainly knows a handicap snip when he sees one. After all he did get Bulwark to win the Chester Cup, that’s an achievement in it’s self and a cracking year so far in 2008, suggests he’s only going to get better.

4.
Nick Williams
Bets: 259
Wins: 51
Strike-Rate: 19.69%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,406.60

One of the latest new wave of talent to start up training, Tom Dascombe has made racing his life for the last 19 years, and stints as a stable lad, jockey, and now trainer – this lad has made rapid progress in his first season or two at the helm, and is a talent worth keeping on the right side of.

3.
Tom Dascombe
Bets: 156
Wins: 32
Strike-Rate: 20.51%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £675.20

Tim Vaughan a relatively new trainer on the racing scene, although being involved with horses all his life. Took out a permit to train horses in 2005, and saddled a winner with his first runner. Investments in his abilities over the last couple of years have seen this mans talent come to the fore and looks one to follow for a while yet.

2.
Tim Vaughan
Bets: 84
Wins: 19
Strike-Rate: 22.62%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £442.90

…and finally what list would be complete without the messiah himself, and straight in at number one goes Sir Mark Prescott.

1.
Sir Mark Prescott
Bets: 702
Wins: 214
Strike-Rate: 30.48%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £525.00

So there you have it, 10 trainers worth following in Handicap Company which are proven money makers. All stats date back to 2003, and thus separate the men from the boys, and in Jane Chapple-Hyam’s case, the women from the girls.

Trainer Breakdown: Chris Wall

In addition to my “The Lower Classes” article, I shall now be conducting a series of tests on various trainers over the next month and trying to look into what make them tick. I know the guys on here are big fans of Chris Wall mainly because one of our members is employed by the master of Induna Stables, so that’s my first port of call for this series.

Our first approach is; looking at what tracks Chris Wall favours against others and try and piece together a pattern to make some hard earned. From the table below, you can see that Chris Wall does well at Lingfield, Newbury, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth and Sandown although Doncaster can also be included.

As you can see Chris Wall makes a healthy profit at all of the meetings listed above, but Lingfield can be both all-weather and turf and thus needs further investigation. In the table below I’ve separated them into the turf course and all-weather and although there isn’t much of a difference it’s worth splitting up the sample.

A much better strike-rate and Profit on the Turf here at Lingfield, and if you’d narrowed it down further to backing Chris Wall horses on the Lingfield turf, with the going description as Good – you’d get the following set of results.

Following this over the last five years has proven profitable however qualifiers are few and far between which can be attributed to the general core of meetings at Lingfield now are run on there artificial all-weather surface. The stats below are linked to the above table in regards to the ground condition at Lingfield, and this is how you’d have done backing these year on year.

Another place to look for Chris Wall runners are in handicaps and the master of Induna Stables can be placed up there with the best at handicapping his horses to take advantage of their marks. I’m guessing the majority wouldn’t know but if you’d backed every Chris Wall; Handicap runner since 2003, you’d of made a cool £1,260.29 to £10 level stakes – with a strike rate of 15%.

Following Chris Wall handicappers in Class 4 Handicaps will have resulted in a profit of £830.68 to £10 level units, and a strike-rate of 18.62%. However backing his handicap entrants in Class 1 events will result in a £40 loss to £10 units, as all four entrants in this grade have all lost.

Okay so now we’ve looked at his favoured tracks, favourite type of races (handicaps) so now it’s time to take this investigation to the next port of call – Race Distances. Each trainer has the ability to train a certain type of horse; Richard Hannon is most potent with his Sprinters, but struggles to do anything with horses beyond a mile. Sir Michael Stoute does well with his classic types, mile and above but has trouble with his sprinters.

So if you’d backed every Chris Wall horse over a distance of 9F and above, you’d of lost £1,280.45 to £10 level units. With just a winning strike-rate of 10.63% – that’s quite a poor showing really for a trainer who does so well with his horses, which must suggest that his runners below 9F will show a significant profit – let’s see!

Now those figures are much better; backing a Chris Wall horse over 5F to 8.5F has produced a tasty profit of £1,153.58 to £10 level stakes. Narrowing this down to handicaps only further increases the profit and overall strike rate, these details are in the below table.

Another investigation I decided to delve into was following Chris Walls’ horses in Handicaps, over the trips between 5F and 8.5F, and then added in my initial investigation of the Prize Money (See my The Lower Classes article for more detail). This produced 367 bets, 62 winners and a profit of £1,550.11 to £10 stakes, the Prize Money use was that of £0-£8,000.

So now we’ve looked into the Newmarket handler a little more it’s clear to see that was can use some of these stats to our advantage. I’ve put together a bullet-point list of what should help us go a good way towards making some money following his horses.

  • Back Chris Walls’ horses at Lingfield, Newbury, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth, Sandown and Doncaster.
  • Especially when in Handicaps, as these show a significant profit to your original stake.
  • Have more confidence in a Chris Wall runner when the distance is below 9F, his horses below this trip appear to run much better than over longer distances and make a tasty profit in the process.