Longshot Betting – 24th July 2012

Selections coming from Yarmouth, found below. Monday’s selection in Major Muscari was supported at big prices close to the off and showed decent speed from the gate, showing up prominently up until about 2f out. He weakened quite quickly and must just have been a precocious juvenile and nothing more. Disappointing nonetheless. Some fair racing tomorrow from Musselburgh but with the weather indecisive, I’ve decided to go to Yarmouth for my bets today, especially as the ground (fingers crossed) looks like it’ll be on the quick side. Selections below.

I was going to put up Kuanyao in the 16:20 at Yarmouth, but because of the non-runner I don’t quite think the current 3/1 is worth it. He should win if getting a lead (entirely possible in a race full of hold-up types) and is worth a small investment if he drifts in the betting market before the off.

DROPZONE (17:50) showed nothing last time when beaten 66+ lengths but excuses are in abundance for that effort and given that he’s likely to appreciate the going, the track and the removal of the headgear, along with his yard being in excellent form and having an excellent record in three year old handicaps at this venue, he’s far from out of this contest. His dam is a half-sister to listed winners and with that sort of pedigree, he was sent off a warm favourite on debut on the all-weather earlier this year. He was inexperienced that day but connections obviously thought quite highly of him and although he’s no world-beater, subsequent efforts in maidens provided evidence that all he needed was time, handicaps and a step up in trip to find his level. This was proved to an extent on his handicap debut, where he ran like the 1m2f trip that day was a bit on the sharp side. Upped to 1m6f on his last start and blinkered, he didn’t shape well at all. That being said, it came on soft ground and from his action, he looks quite a slick mover and testing conditions probably won’t suit on that basis. He also might have resented the blinkers, so to see them removed today is an obvious plus, as is the quicker ground conditions.

There is also a number of statistics that give Dropzone every chance today. Firstly, his sire is 3/4 at Yarmouth (from three horses, the other one came second) and although it is not a huge sample, it’s encouraging. What’s also encouraging is that Marco Botti is 5/18 at Yarmouth in three year old handicaps. That, combined with the excellent form of his stable currently, having had two winners at Ascot on the weekend and from his last 9 entries, four have won and three have finished runner-up. It’s probably a decent time to catch Dropzone now back to this extended 1m3f (which should suit) and although Martin Harley is only 1/16 when riding for Marco Botti, he’s a very capable pilot. A competitive race at this 0-65 level but Dropzone has plenty of factors in its favour, and is definitely worth a fair investment given he’s looked capable of obvious improvement just two starts ago.

Bets

[notification_box]17:50 Yarmouth – Dropzone; 2pts @ 12/1 Paddy Power (bog)[/notification_box]

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