Longshot Betting – 23rd July 2012

Just the one selection for Monday, coming from Beverley. Sunday saw the first bet of July and fortunately, it was a winning one with Taajub just hanging on. He was a bit naughty in the preliminaries and jumped out to his left when coming out of the stalls and although off the bridle a fair way out, the pace around him suited and he stuck to his task very well. The runner-up, Mass Rally is a bridle merchant and was given a near-perfect ride, as he was in front yards after the post but you can’t fault Taajub and although he might find things tough off a revised rating, he’s one to bear in mind when likely to get a decent tow into the race. Selection below.

MAJOR MUSCARI (21:00) doesn’t look at all an obvious bet given that on his last four starts, he’s been beaten by 9.25 lengths or more and he comes into this contest off a 277 day absence. That being said, his best effort of 2011 came on seasonal reappearance and that was his peak effort by some way. He could well be one to catch fresh and should relish this stiff 5f if all is well, alongside coming from a trainer who does well at Beverley with older horses in handicaps, he’s value at his current odds. A fairly useful juvenile with some fair form in maidens, he was rated as high as 84 at one point and ran his best race as a three year old on seasonal reappearance off a mark of 80. That was over 5f at Doncaster and he shaped as if he was screaming out for a stiffer test at the minimum trip, given that he travelled well into the race but just took a bit of time to pick up. He was making plenty of ground up at the finish and that would suggest that a track like Beverley, with its uphill finish, would be ideal. Although not showing anything at all on his next four starts, I always think that 3yo sprinters don’t have the greatest of programmes and that it’s often worth giving them another chance when they’re a year older. This is a ‘chancy’ bet given that Major Muscari might have lost the plot completely but Geoffery Oldroyd’s record at Beverley is a good one, as he’s 3/9 since 2009 in these sorts of handicaps. Given that Major Muscari’s best form came on seasonal reappearance last year, he comes into this race off a much reduced mark, on drying ground which suits and a stiff track, that should also suit, it gives me encouragement that we might see a much improved effort today. The markets will tell us the full story but a small bet at these fancy odds won’t do much harm, especially as I’d have him at around the 12/1 mark for this seasonal reappearance. The minimum stakes will suffice, especially for a bet like this.

[notification_box]Bets

21:00 Beverley – Major Muscari; 1pt @ 25/1 BetVictor, William Hill (bog)[/notification_box]

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