Longshot Betting – 21st May 2012

windsor-racecourse

Monday’s selections for a race at Windsor this evening posted below. Friday was the last day of posting and both selections ran pretty poorly. Waldvogel was a bit of a nuisance in the preliminaries but looked to have every chance 2f out, but his effort faded and he finished well-held. There’s definitely a race in him somewhere, but he’ll likely have to go to a less competitive level than the one he ran in last time. Key Gold ran too bad to be true, able to set the fractions in front and looked to have a decent chance. She finished very poorly and it may just have be that she isn’t actually that good.

Although PURIFICATION (20:10) was well-beaten on seasonal reappearance 23 days ago, he shaped with more promise than the bare form suggests and he’s more than capable of hacking up off this mark of 85, especially as he had looked a promising sort at one time. It’s interesting that connections persevere and he’s worthy of a bet at a double figure price. He’s had five starts to date and showed a high-class level of form in two of those, finishing 2nd behind Genius Beast on his final start in 2010, which is fairly strong form and then winning his maiden over 10f quite convincingly. He shaped that day as if further would suit and was sent off the relatively short price of 8/1 in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, he looked inexperienced and faded tamely, eventually beaten 73 lengths.  He wasn’t seen from then until last month having been gelded and although beaten 14.5 lengths, it wasn’t an abhorrent run. He saw plenty of daylight, was sent wide for his challenge and was hardly given a hard time in the closing stages, over a trip that is probably on the sharp side. In theory, he should have come on bundles for that outing and I’m expecting much better today. Purification handles faster ground, the gelding operation should have improved his attitude if nothing more and he’ll be all the better for his seasonal reappearance. The 3lb drop in the handicap is of obvious benefit and it may be that today we’ll see something like the best of this one, especially as he had previously looked to have a lot of potential. Although it may be that he didn’t train on, he’s worthy of a bet at a double figure price, especially with William Buick back aboard and conditions to suit, with the slight step up in trip also of benefit.

Bets

20:10 Windsor – Purification; 2pts @ 12/1 Bet365 (bog)

This post was written by Longshot Betting

Longshot Betting   21st May 2012
I’m Josh Fletcher, a racing enthusiast/punter who specialises generally in finding big-priced selections, opposing the favourites. I’m a big fan of both the flat and the national hunt scene, alongside a fondness for the fibresand of Southwell. Apart from following Racing, I’m a Law Student in London.

Tweet me @joshfletch

Longshot Betting has written posts on OHRacing.

Wanna say something?






 

back to top