Longshot Betting – 16th January 2012

One selection from Plumpton, priced at 6/1. Saturday was a disappointing day with all three selections not getting in front. Diamond Vine being the one going closest, coming with what looked like a winning challenge. However, he tended to hang in behind runners at some stages and I don’t think he’s the most straightforward. Khun John stayed on towards the end of the race but wasn’t good enough. He might be worth a go over 1m4f but I doubt I’ll be backing him again. Forty Proof may well be worth another go however, as he was held-up and keen off a sedate gallop, nothing from the rear ever getting involved. I’ll likely give him another chance when a truly run race is likely.

PRETTY PENNY (15:40) could be an absolute certainty if the bare form of her point to point victory works out as she beat two horses who would be rated around 20lbs higher than her current mark. She’ll almost definitely be the sort of horse who’s suited by fences and should go really well in what really is a poor race. She actually started her career in points, finishing 2nd twice in two maidens in that sphere before running under rules with Martin Keighley over timber. She didn’t show a great deal at all, and subsequently moved to Jennifer Mason. That move seems to have done the trick though, as she won on her last start over 3 miles in a maiden point to point at Barbury by ½ a length. The two placed horses would be given far superior official ratings, something in the region of 20-30lbs better than Pretty Penny’s official rating of 70 when they next show up under rules so she looks extremely well-handicapped I feel, especially now encountering fences (which will suit) and over this kind of trip.

My one concern really is the ground, as Martin Keighley has stated in his blog in the past that he thought she’d need soft ground, and the pointing success came on soft ground. Current conditions at Plumpton are good to soft and they haven’t had any rain for a little while, so if it came up genuine good ground by post-time then she might be slightly inconvenienced. That being said, there has been a forecast of potentially dead ground today which may well suit. She’s still worth chancing though I feel and with a fair bet as well. She looks the perfect type to relish chasing and gets in off a ridiculously low-weight. She should stay the extra 2 furlongs and the Jennifer Mason horses seem to be running well (placed effort in a listed race last week). 6/1 is a big price in a poor field and hopefully the ground doesn’t go against her, but she’s well worth a bet as today is probably the time to catch her value wise.

[notification_box]Bets

15:40 Plumpton – Pretty Penny; 3pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes (bog) [/notification_box]

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