Punters Diary: Week 1
As of this week, I shall be writing a new feature for the site. An honest punting diary of my exploits from the previous weeks events, a little like Dave Nevison’s in style, but a little varied in content with the intentions of it being fairly light hearted, honest, and thus more losses!
A little bit about me before I begin. I’d say I have a fair understanding of the form book, particularly on the level. I am extremely good with numbers and analysing situations, but I have about as much discipline as a pissed-up suicide bomber. This is probably the main reason why I sit behind a desk everyday under another man’s whip, in frustration of how some clowns can make the game pay. Or at least that is their claims. Serial bullshitters are the Bain of my existence, as are compulsive whingers. Bad rides go on, bad information gets passed on, it’s part and parcel of the game. But, if you have an inkling of sense between your ears you can profit from these in the future!
My punting is predominantly based around novices in both spheres, and unexposed horses in general. But at the other end of the spectrum I appear to profit in top grade races so increase stakes at top grade tracks and meetings. Whether or not this is a wise idea I’m yet to fathom, but I’m a strong believer that the form stands up more at these top meetings. I’m not a fan of handicaps over the sticks in the slightest, and avoid at almost all costs! Flat handicaps for unexposed horses however are a totally different ball game! Here goes…
Monday 22nd Dec: Probably not the finest week to begin my punting exploits. I had three bets lined up at lunchtime, all of which I was super confident about! 2:30 Lingfield, Theatre Street of Noseda’s. Reportedly a very good filly, but today wasn’t her day. 5/1 in the win market and 2.2 in the place. Lovely price to lay a place!! Unfortunately my problems began at around 2:15. Just as I stuck up my place lay at 2.3, the thing began to drift like a turd in a kiddie’s paddling pool… 2.4…2.6…2.8…3.2…!!! Come 2:28 I still hadn’t been accommodated. Being the genius I am, I chased the price out all the way to 3.4, fully matched… relief…!! All for 30 fucking seconds!! As soon as the gates were opened it was one way traffic and she was unlucky not to win!! Sitting at my desk shaking my head… I should have known it was going to be one of these days… weeks… lives!!
A fair bit lighter after backing a 2/5 loser, my next bet was only 30 minutes away in the next at Leafy. 3/1 Epsom Salts. I had been given the heads up two runs back, knew the form with Chris Wall’s was good, and believed the step up in trip would bring the required improvement to defy the handicapper. Backed into 9/4 on the off I was confident. The in-running market didn’t look too hot, before a quick surge back into Evens, 1.6, the infamous 1.3 which I love to get past… the 1.1 which basically signifies your jockey has just weighed in. Close Betfair mobile. It wasn’t until Betfair failed to top up my Available To Bet Balance, I bothered checking the result. Sick!
Now 3.5 points down, with one left to play. Thankfully Mr. Keniry managed to steer Musical Script home for another course victory. Dead level on the day, but what could have, and what should have been! At least I’ll get my money back on Theatre Street next time in the win market, was my only consolation!
Tuesday 23rd December: With renewed confidence and more ‘winners’ to back, I was ready for the Tuesday affair. I hate Southwell. Shit hole of a place. The form only stands up at … Southwell. Some may say this is good and easy to analyse form, but… whatever, I never get on the right side of one there! Off to Fontwell it was… first things first, Or Jaune v. Chiaro looked a match in the betting, however not to me! At a combined price of near on 1/5 they were scandalously short, and had to be apposed. I backed No Panic at 5/1. After beating both favourites off relatively early in the race it was a ding-dong up the run in. ‘1st, Number 6, Radetsky March’ 25/1 winners… ya don’t need it!! Towel thrown in for the day.
Wednesday 24th December: Bored senseless. Pointless day in the calendar bar the piss up. Didn’t get into club. Home by 1. Not happy.
Thursday 25th December: Missed a winner here. Was frantically ringing round for a price on my uncle being an absolute cunt. No one was prepared to lay 1 banana to 12 bananas. Alas he was.
Friday 26th December: The day I’d been waiting for! My Christmas! And this year was not only spent at Kempton, but in The Royal Box at Kempton!! Just a little out of place, standing in the same room as Jim Lewis and Clive Smith all day, but had an absolutely amazing day nonetheless. An absolute punting bonanza! This really was a what-could-have-been day. I backed Fairyland each way after being given the heads up last term when finishing second behind Golan Way. Back on better ground, would take all the beating. A word was going round the box that McCoy was really looking forward to riding Michael Flips in the first, and I was the only bastard left grimacing as the champ cruised to victory. I fancied The Market Man in the next, but didn’t play. Bullet dodged, good job! But there were no dodged bullets in the Christmas Hurdle. I had it between two. Punjabi and Harchibald. Punjabi win or Harchibald each way. As soon as the race went down to 7 runners there was only one option… to back the faller which in my opinion would have won and gone second favourite for the Champion. Again, that money is only lent and I’ll definitely get it back next time!!
Next up was Kauto. I couldn’t be bothered to get out of bed early enough to get the 6/4 with Ladbrokes, so succumbed to the 2.02 on Betfair. Winners a winner et al, but the serious value was missed. In hindsight I still definitely got the value. Kauto simply loves Kempton and there wasn’t a worry turning for home, bar his standard last fence blooper. Alas the entire course erupted. In the next there was a word going around for Supreme Duke. At 25/1 it wouldn’t hurt too much to have a small financial interest. At times I thought the win money was possible let alone the place money. True to form, 4th. The only ‘away’ bet I had all day was to back Double Act each way at Wolverhampton. Absolutely mangled last time out, Kirby was heard to apologise when coming back in saying he should have won comfortably. The horse is known to have breathing problems so probably failed to go through with his effort… a drop down in trip might be required.
Saturday 27th December: An absolute punting bonanza, this time sat in my favourite place… in front of the box with the Betfair machine at the ready! Why didn’t I go out last night and get so far hammered I couldn’t wake up Saturday… or Sunday for that! Note to self for the future; never lay in running again, no matter how much value you think you’re getting!! Notre Pere, Fleet Street and The Dukes Speech effectively ruined what could have been a good day. I love my novice hurdlers, and Walkon was a moral at Chepstow. Upsides Zaynar at the last, and a clear second in what was a hot Newbury hurdle, carrying a penalty to boot. It had to win, and alas did. What was the most overwhelming thing was the price. 7/2! I had it down as a 6/4 shot, took 5/2 best odds guaranteed, and got some 7/2 in return. Thank you! Starluck was also a moral. Overpriced thanks to Mr Fleming’s reputation, 10/11 was a gift, and how this horse is not favourite for the Triumph still remains a mystery to me! The value is definitely with the two previously mentioned at 12s and 8s respectively, and although I have them at 20’s and 14s respectively, I’m not afraid to keep going in at those prices!
Original was also a good winner for me. Sadly I didn’t get the pre-race 200s on Betfair, or even 66s in the shops, but the 10/1 turning for home when travelling best of all was a gift. A sensationally timed ride from James Davies. He wasn’t scared to let the faces go off and set their own pace, then travel into it at his own accord. To then get headed and drive him back for me over the last fence was admirable. For the forgotten lad who has sadly only had 3 winners this season, it was remarkably cool to ride his own race… hopefully he’ll get some more rides in the near future off the back of that, which he richly deserves.
I had a fairly lumpy bet on Twist Magic. 2/1 was purely on the basis he might have remembered what happened at Sandown less than a month ago. Unfortunately he did remember, and was scared of every fence after his mid-air collision. My two only other bets of the day were Ingratitude and Will Be Done. Looking back, how did I lose? In-running lays, especially with Fleet Street which was an absolute skinner having laid 4/1, 3/1, 2/1, 6/4, then Evens! Ouchies!
Sunday 28th December: The day began with the intentions of having few bets, it didn’t end like that. Infact it ended rather abruptly with a few too many losers on the spin. Neptune Collognes was my idea of the winner, but was no value at 5/4. The value for me was 9/2 War Of Attrition each way. Never was worried about the place money after The Listeners early fall, but an impressive Exotic Dancer scuppered my plans for win money quite a way out. Some say Neptune had the Dancer covered, I am not in this camp but believe Neptune will come on a bundle for the run and hopefully will be priced up accordingly on his next run! Things had already got messy by this time, with a back of Siegemaster pre race, then a back of Trafford Lad in running to get back the losses. Casey Jones shocks all. Nice. A few more in running lays which didn’t go my way, resulting in another losing week. The worst thing is, I don’t think I can say I learnt anything today to get losses back! Ho hum!
All in all, a horrible week. The one day I did my share any kind of winning, I was too bothered about getting as much free Champagne inside me as possible! It was fairly decent plonk, but didn’t make up for a serious brains doing session. Oh well. Wouldn’t be right had I ended 2008 on a winning note. Looking back over the year, I’d say I probably just about broke even, due to a miserable December. An excellent Cheltenham as per usual, a good Aintree, a good Ascot, a good Goodwood, a few notable touches from good information, and a self produced sensational November kept my head above water. The same old faces helped contribute to red figures on my statements. Southwell, gaff national hunt tracks and shitty northern courses. Worst thing is I know full well where my losses come, but I refuse to eradicate them from the profile. Next year…. I will!!
And looking to next year…! I love an Antepost bet, whereas some don’t, I’m prepared to try and work my positions throughout the year in order to have ‘value’ on the day. In my opinion there are very few ‘value’ bets for Cheltenham at the moment.
Cousin Vinny is a ’value’ lay at the moment for the Supreme Novices in my opinion. 5/1 is awfully short, when 6s is available on Hurricane Fly. Not saying Hurricane is value, but it’s a no brainer which I’d rather be on. If I had to nail my colours to a mast, I’d say the 60s+ on Shoreacres and 25s on Michael Flips represent the only horses worth any kind of bet, but I can imagine this market will be shaken up a lot in the coming weeks.
Last week I was in the ’3/1 Tatenen for the Arkle is a joke camp’. This week I’m in the ‘5/1 Tatenen for the Arkle is cracking value camp’. Whilst I don’t believe he’s an absolute monster, a moral to win, I know that Nicholls is rarely wrong, and this will not start 5/1 on the day!
There is only one horse in the Champion Hurdle betting worth a bet now. Whilst I think Binocular is a moral, 16/1 about Punjabi is overly generous. Massive each way value! 4/1 a place is sensational, and will be seeing some of my beans in the coming days!
At the moment the Ballymore is looking a match to me between the two English horses heading the betting, in Max and Harry who are 10s and 4s respectively. I have them in doubles with Hurricane Fly (10s) for the Supreme, at 10s and 8s respectively, and expect the existing prices to contract further when Hurricane Fly is confirmed for the Supreme. I do like a cross double when a horse looks potentially ’doubly engaged’ for the Festival.
For the RSA, I think What A Friend is the most likely winner at this stage, but can’t see any value in the market at all.
I’ve been frantically searching the Champion Chase market for some each way ‘value’ to oppose the favourite with. I’m currently struggling to find any horse that will definitely turn up to take on Master Minded!!
The Ryanair… 9/2 Noland is fairly generous in my opinion considering its one of a few which is certain to run in the race, and has a leading chance on form! Voy Por at 6/1 also appeals, and at almost 2/1 the pair dutched could represent a good bet in my opinion.
Punchestowns was mightily impressive in the Long Walk a few weeks back, and to be honest 2/1 should be a fair price considering how he demolished his field. He beat most of the leading contenders that day, but the only concern was Henderson’s intentions to send him over fences this season. Did they not expect this to improve over the summer so remarkably? I can’t see any value at all as of yet. Maybe Fair Along each way at 20/1 in what looks a fairly poor field.
The Triumph. One of the only races I’ve had an interest in so far. Three bets in the race. 14s Zaynar, 14s Starluck and 20s Walkon. I’m very pleased with my book, yet still can’t believe Starluck and Walkon are considerably bigger prices than the aforementioned Henderson hope. 4/1 is a price purely on reputation.
The Gold Cup. Not a clue! Depends what condition both Nicholls horses turn up in. If Denman reappears in good form 2/1 will look massive. If he doesn’t….! Watching spectacle for me.
Until next time
YEEEEEEE HAAAAAAAAAAAA
