Champion Hurdle - Betting Market - OHR

**The Duke** · **27-02-09**, **01:32 AM**

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**Palmersears** · **03-03-09**, **09:54 AM**

A potential winners must have:

Won it’s last start. (With the exception of Hardy Eustace when beaten by a head)

Had it’s final run before the festival within 51 days (Middle of January at the earliest).

Won at least one race this season.

Finshed at least fourth at a previous Cheltenham Festival (10 from 10 have)

A good Cheltenham record. The past ten years have seen all winners of this race win at least 50% of their starts at Cheltenham if they have had 2 more runs at the course before this race.

**Palmersears** · **03-03-09**, **10:12 AM**

With the above considered (Can you tell I'm taking a statistical approach to the Festival this year?!) it leaves me with two contenders; Celestial Halo and Ashkazar. Whilst you could argue that Katchit and Binocular should be in the melting pot as well both have strong negatives against them for me. Whilst they will run well they don't fall into my statistical considerations.

As for the two contenders, Ashkazar stacks up well stats wise. He won lto at Wincanton, a preperation race which also falls well inside the 51 day bracket (14th February to be precise). That win also ticks the 1 win in a season box, and his second in the Fred Winter Juvinile Novices' Handicap Hurdle behind Crack Away Jack at last year's frestival ticks stat box four. He can't really be judged on the last box, as the above second was his only previous visit.

Celestial Halo has all the stats on his side as well. A winner of his final race before coming here (A race which also falls within the 51 day period), he's ticked three boxes with one race. His win in last year's Triumph Hurdle goes some way to qualifying him for stat four.

Overall we have two evenly matched horses to chose from. Both tick four of five boxes stat-wise, but my preference is for Celstial Halo, whose second behind Binocular at Ascot in December, coupled with his win here last year, can see him pick up the win.

**Portman Square** · **05-03-09**, **06:34 PM**

SENTRY DUTY - winner of his last two outings for this canny trainer and has beaten Celestial Halo (albeit Feb 08!). Strong and determined, he will be stalking the frentic pace and if Mr Geraghty takes the ride again on him would expect his SP to be a lot shorter than the 16s above. Has form on all types of ground from Firm to Heavy so that wont be an excuse.

**broadsword** · **07-03-09**, **09:57 AM**

Down with the Binoculars and up periscope as i'm taking the Sub to sink them all. Sublimity been there,done it got the tee-shirt he is going to need good ground hopefully they won't water too harshly.Won it in 07 travelled like the winner and just faltered up the hill last year after troubled preperation and on ground too soft for him. Ive already backed him outright and without Binocular and if I believe its truly good ground on the day and 20/1 available I will back him again on the day.Also if the grounds good i'd give a shout for Harchibald I've had bits antepost at massive prices but I'll wait to see the ground on the day before having a serious stab at him.If the grounds soft I'm out of Ideas but I'll lay Binocular what ever,not that he can't win just that on what he has done he is miles too short IMO he is nothing better than a 3/1 shot.Got too give a little shout to Won in the dark aswell as nobodys talking about him and I think he is a decent little horse on the upward kerf.

**Thommo** · **07-03-09**, **10:14 AM**

Whoever backed Harchibald, PLEASE RETIRE from this game.

**curlycov** · **08-03-09**, **03:40 PM**

Seems to me to be as solid as a rock. Has comfortably beaten Celestial Halo twice. He was only a 4yo when finishing 2nd at last years festival when in hindsight A.P may have held on to him a bit longer. With a strongly run race assured due to Celestial Halo and Osana, he can sit behind them and his crisp hurdling will take him to the front at the last and sprint clear.

**kidoncricketer** · **08-03-09**, **10:03 PM**

this is a fascinating race, the young verse the old, and last years winner to prove he still has it ??

i have went in on brave inca. cant believe the price on a horse who has shown his well being.

a great yardstick, if katchit comes back, i`ll be chuffed, but i would rather see this old boy stay on best

**daresaints** · **08-03-09**, **10:48 PM**

Can't see past Binocular - will have ground to suit and can take this for the Henderson camp

**bucharest** · **09-03-09**, **03:27 AM**

Binocular

The rest will need Binoculars to see this one,without doubt the banker bet of the meeting 6 runs over hurdles and 5 wins has got all the hallmarks of a horse with that touch of class needed to win a race like the champion hurdle.

**Norton** · **09-03-09**, **10:50 AM**

Again no value in taking the favourite in my opinion - NH's concern over the missed work despite the racecourse workout tempers my enthusiasm for him. It's OSANA for me - proven in the race, high class horse, with a very good return behind Celestial Halo, giving that one 4lbs.

**del boy** · **09-03-09**, **11:27 AM**

The rain has come, Brave Inca will love it. The horse has apparently never been as well, i think it will be in the first 3 and may even win it.

**Thommo** · **09-03-09**, **01:23 PM**

Binocular - I have tried to find alternatives to this horse but the way he won last time against Celestial Halo, with Katchit and Crack Away Jack well behind, was simply far too impressive. This is a special horse in my opinion and I really think we could see a special performance with AP on board.

**fudge** · **09-03-09**, **02:17 PM**

This is such an open and excellent Champion but im going to side with Harchibald who will love the lightning gallop with all the 24 runners and will travel into the race nicely, whether he finds anything at the top of the hill im unsure about but he wont be far away.

**the knowledge** · **09-03-09**, **03:31 PM**

Ashkazar is rated very highly in the Pipe camp and at the start of the season was the stables number one choice for the Champion Hurdle in preference to Osana. After winning the Kingwell he has a very good chance of taking this (hope so as I am on 33/1)

**skydog** · **09-03-09**, **04:54 PM**

Ashkazar - Looks the real 'fly in the ointment' material here.Lots to like about his win in the Kingwell & just hope the same horse turns up here. Wouldn't be a surprise if the lesser fancied Pipe runner was to win. Interesting that both of Pipes are blinkered first time in this race which seems a bit of a queer thing to do but hell,what do I know

**wyncrg** · **09-03-09**, **08:49 PM**

Binoculor it is for me he looks one of the naps of the meeting looking back at his last two races he looked a class art my only worry is would he get up the hill but i think he has come on this season and will show his class here.

**mojo** · **09-03-09**, **09:21 PM**

Celestial Halo
I think he's over priced due to the popularity of the fav. Binocular has done very little wrong but offers no value at current odds. Nicholls says he left plenty to work on with CH and he is entitled to improve a little which will have him right there.
There is a possibility that jp has a successor Istabraq on his hands and good luck if he does but at the odds CH is a bet for me

**The Duke** · **09-03-09**, **09:28 PM**

I've plumped for Osana in this competetive affair. Has the form in the book and wouldn't mind conditions soft after his excellent Greatwood second to Sizing Europe here in November 2007 before another solid effort when second in this race last year.

Interesting that David Pipe has plumped for the blinkers on Osana which should sharpen him up for this test. They tried a similar ploy with Our Vic last season which worked a treat and I think this could have the same effect.

If Osana doesn't win, then I expect Punjabi to be thereabouts.

**Thommo** · **09-03-09**, **09:53 PM**

I don't get all this argument, Binocular won't get up the hill.

Celestial had a good 15 length lead on him at Swinley Bottom at Ascot last time and its pretty much all up hill for the last mile there.

**Hexham VIP** · **09-03-09**, **10:15 PM**

i am sticking with my antepost bet of JERED. I think if held up he could cruise up the hill behind the leaders and hopefully get a chance to use his finishing kick.

**Montyspass1** · **09-03-09**, **10:22 PM**

Osana for me. Was extremely impressed with the way it stuck to the task against celestial on its reappearence, and assuming that it needed the run as much as it looked like, I am certain that the form will be reversed. The price is also extremely favourable.

**jtw1** · **09-03-09**, **10:35 PM**

Hopefully OSANA can find the improvment promised after it 1st outing this season.
Too many niggly doubts about the fav for me , none more so is the fact that 23 are prepared to take him on .
If he was a genuine 6/4 shot in a race of this magnitude i would have expected him to have frightened most of the opposition away .

**Macca™** · **09-03-09**, **11:07 PM**

Sublimity, mainly for sentimental reasons, I love the horse, but he's not completely out of this by any means, darkhorse of the race.

**The Duke** · **09-03-09**, **11:48 PM**

Come on people! Please read the rules before making your selections - I mean really, how hard is it to get things right?

I'm absolutely amazed at the amount of people who have bet incorrectly to the terms in the Rules & Guidelines thread.

27-02-09, 01:32 AM	#1 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Champion Hurdle - Betting Market Odds provided by PaddyPower.com If you are unsure of the rules of posting in this competition, then please read the rules before doing so. You can do this by clicking here.

03-03-09, 09:54 AM	#2 (permalink)
Palmersears Mmmmm Hayley Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester	A potential winners must have: Won it’s last start. (With the exception of Hardy Eustace when beaten by a head) Had it’s final run before the festival within 51 days (Middle of January at the earliest). Won at least one race this season. Finshed at least fourth at a previous Cheltenham Festival (10 from 10 have) A good Cheltenham record. The past ten years have seen all winners of this race win at least 50% of their starts at Cheltenham if they have had 2 more runs at the course before this race. Last edited by Palmersears; 03-03-09 at 10:12 AM..

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03-03-09, 10:12 AM	#3 (permalink)
Palmersears Mmmmm Hayley Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester	With the above considered (Can you tell I'm taking a statistical approach to the Festival this year?!) it leaves me with two contenders; Celestial Halo and Ashkazar. Whilst you could argue that Katchit and Binocular should be in the melting pot as well both have strong negatives against them for me. Whilst they will run well they don't fall into my statistical considerations. As for the two contenders, Ashkazar stacks up well stats wise. He won lto at Wincanton, a preperation race which also falls well inside the 51 day bracket (14th February to be precise). That win also ticks the 1 win in a season box, and his second in the Fred Winter Juvinile Novices' Handicap Hurdle behind Crack Away Jack at last year's frestival ticks stat box four. He can't really be judged on the last box, as the above second was his only previous visit. Celestial Halo has all the stats on his side as well. A winner of his final race before coming here (A race which also falls within the 51 day period), he's ticked three boxes with one race. His win in last year's Triumph Hurdle goes some way to qualifying him for stat four. Overall we have two evenly matched horses to chose from. Both tick four of five boxes stat-wise, but my preference is for Celstial Halo, whose second behind Binocular at Ascot in December, coupled with his win here last year, can see him pick up the win.

05-03-09, 06:34 PM	#4 (permalink)
Portman Square Group 3 Level Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Kensington	SENTRY DUTY - winner of his last two outings for this canny trainer and has beaten Celestial Halo (albeit Feb 08!). Strong and determined, he will be stalking the frentic pace and if Mr Geraghty takes the ride again on him would expect his SP to be a lot shorter than the 16s above. Has form on all types of ground from Firm to Heavy so that wont be an excuse.

07-03-09, 09:57 AM	#5 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	Down with the Binoculars and up periscope as i'm taking the Sub to sink them all. Sublimity been there,done it got the tee-shirt he is going to need good ground hopefully they won't water too harshly.Won it in 07 travelled like the winner and just faltered up the hill last year after troubled preperation and on ground too soft for him. Ive already backed him outright and without Binocular and if I believe its truly good ground on the day and 20/1 available I will back him again on the day.Also if the grounds good i'd give a shout for Harchibald I've had bits antepost at massive prices but I'll wait to see the ground on the day before having a serious stab at him.If the grounds soft I'm out of Ideas but I'll lay Binocular what ever,not that he can't win just that on what he has done he is miles too short IMO he is nothing better than a 3/1 shot.Got too give a little shout to Won in the dark aswell as nobodys talking about him and I think he is a decent little horse on the upward kerf.

07-03-09, 10:14 AM	#6 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Whoever backed Harchibald, PLEASE RETIRE from this game.

08-03-09, 03:40 PM	#7 (permalink)
curlycov Selling Plater Join Date: Mar 2009	Seems to me to be as solid as a rock. Has comfortably beaten Celestial Halo twice. He was only a 4yo when finishing 2nd at last years festival when in hindsight A.P may have held on to him a bit longer. With a strongly run race assured due to Celestial Halo and Osana, he can sit behind them and his crisp hurdling will take him to the front at the last and sprint clear.

08-03-09, 10:03 PM	#8 (permalink)
kidoncricketer soccer guru Join Date: May 2005 Location: scotland	this is a fascinating race, the young verse the old, and last years winner to prove he still has it ?? i have went in on brave inca. cant believe the price on a horse who has shown his well being. a great yardstick, if katchit comes back, i`ll be chuffed, but i would rather see this old boy stay on best

08-03-09, 10:48 PM	#9 (permalink)
daresaints Blackandwhitearmy Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Paisley	Can't see past Binocular - will have ground to suit and can take this for the Henderson camp

09-03-09, 03:27 AM	#10 (permalink)
bucharest World Class Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Phuket	Binocular The rest will need Binoculars to see this one,without doubt the banker bet of the meeting 6 runs over hurdles and 5 wins has got all the hallmarks of a horse with that touch of class needed to win a race like the champion hurdle.

09-03-09, 10:50 AM	#11 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	Again no value in taking the favourite in my opinion - NH's concern over the missed work despite the racecourse workout tempers my enthusiasm for him. It's OSANA for me - proven in the race, high class horse, with a very good return behind Celestial Halo, giving that one 4lbs.

09-03-09, 11:27 AM	#12 (permalink)
del boy Laying Kachina naps Daily Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: EIRE	The rain has come, Brave Inca will love it. The horse has apparently never been as well, i think it will be in the first 3 and may even win it.

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09-03-09, 01:23 PM	#13 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Binocular - I have tried to find alternatives to this horse but the way he won last time against Celestial Halo, with Katchit and Crack Away Jack well behind, was simply far too impressive. This is a special horse in my opinion and I really think we could see a special performance with AP on board.

09-03-09, 02:17 PM	#14 (permalink)
fudge Group 2 Level Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Newmarket	This is such an open and excellent Champion but im going to side with Harchibald who will love the lightning gallop with all the 24 runners and will travel into the race nicely, whether he finds anything at the top of the hill im unsure about but he wont be far away.

09-03-09, 03:31 PM	#15 (permalink)
the knowledge Selling Plater Join Date: Jan 2009	Ashkazar is rated very highly in the Pipe camp and at the start of the season was the stables number one choice for the Champion Hurdle in preference to Osana. After winning the Kingwell he has a very good chance of taking this (hope so as I am on 33/1)

09-03-09, 04:54 PM	#16 (permalink)
skydog World Class Join Date: Jun 2005 Twitter: @TonytheTyke Location: Sheffield	Ashkazar - Looks the real 'fly in the ointment' material here.Lots to like about his win in the Kingwell & just hope the same horse turns up here. Wouldn't be a surprise if the lesser fancied Pipe runner was to win. Interesting that both of Pipes are blinkered first time in this race which seems a bit of a queer thing to do but hell,what do I know

09-03-09, 08:49 PM	#17 (permalink)
wyncrg World Class Join Date: May 2005 Location: North Wales	Binoculor it is for me he looks one of the naps of the meeting looking back at his last two races he looked a class art my only worry is would he get up the hill but i think he has come on this season and will show his class here.

09-03-09, 09:21 PM	#18 (permalink)
mojo Listed Class Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Ireland	Celestial Halo I think he's over priced due to the popularity of the fav. Binocular has done very little wrong but offers no value at current odds. Nicholls says he left plenty to work on with CH and he is entitled to improve a little which will have him right there. There is a possibility that jp has a successor Istabraq on his hands and good luck if he does but at the odds CH is a bet for me

09-03-09, 09:28 PM	#19 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	I've plumped for Osana in this competetive affair. Has the form in the book and wouldn't mind conditions soft after his excellent Greatwood second to Sizing Europe here in November 2007 before another solid effort when second in this race last year. Interesting that David Pipe has plumped for the blinkers on Osana which should sharpen him up for this test. They tried a similar ploy with Our Vic last season which worked a treat and I think this could have the same effect. If Osana doesn't win, then I expect Punjabi to be thereabouts.

09-03-09, 09:53 PM	#20 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	I don't get all this argument, Binocular won't get up the hill. Celestial had a good 15 length lead on him at Swinley Bottom at Ascot last time and its pretty much all up hill for the last mile there.

09-03-09, 10:15 PM	#21 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	i am sticking with my antepost bet of JERED. I think if held up he could cruise up the hill behind the leaders and hopefully get a chance to use his finishing kick.

09-03-09, 10:22 PM	#22 (permalink)
Montyspass1 Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: London	Osana for me. Was extremely impressed with the way it stuck to the task against celestial on its reappearence, and assuming that it needed the run as much as it looked like, I am certain that the form will be reversed. The price is also extremely favourable.

09-03-09, 10:35 PM	#23 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	Hopefully OSANA can find the improvment promised after it 1st outing this season. Too many niggly doubts about the fav for me , none more so is the fact that 23 are prepared to take him on . If he was a genuine 6/4 shot in a race of this magnitude i would have expected him to have frightened most of the opposition away .

09-03-09, 11:07 PM	#24 (permalink)
Macca™ World Class Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Liverpool	Sublimity, mainly for sentimental reasons, I love the horse, but he's not completely out of this by any means, darkhorse of the race.

09-03-09, 11:48 PM	#25 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Come on people! Please read the rules before making your selections - I mean really, how hard is it to get things right? I'm absolutely amazed at the amount of people who have bet incorrectly to the terms in the Rules & Guidelines thread.