Wednesday -Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle - OHR - Betting Forums

Old 20-01-09, 07:47 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Wednesday -Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle

Thoughts to follow...
 
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Old 05-03-09, 08:48 PM   #2 (permalink)
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WEDS - BALLYMORE HURDLE

1- The top 6 in the betting point the way to the winner with no less than 21 of the past 23 winners coming from that range.

As it stands they look like being -

KARABAK , DIAMOND HARRY , MIKAEL D'HAGUENET , COUSIN VINNY , MAD MAX , THE NIGHTINGGALE and BENSALEM .


2- A very strong stat that must be considered is that 19 out of 20 have ran AT LEAST 3 times over Hurdles.
MAD MAX and THE NIGHTINGALE have only had 2 runs over the sticks


3- As with the previous 2 races studied , those who finished 1st or 2nd LTO have a great record and 6 of those 7 named fit the bil . The one that fialed to place 1st or 2nd was COUSIN VINNY who unseated at the last hurdle LTO but definately would have finished in either of thise positions barring losing the Jockey !!!


4- AGE ,Only 1 horse OLDER than 6 has been successful since 1974.
MAD MAX is a 7y-old.

5- 9 winners from the previous 11 had ran in a Graded race LTO .
KARABAK , MAD MAX and THE NIGHTINGALE did not run at that level last time out.


SUMMARY - Straight away i'm discounting KARABAK , MAD MAX and THE NIGHTINGALE [for all the reasons stated above + THE NIGHTINGALE has not ran fro 104 days - another neg ]

11 winners of the CHALLOW HURDLE have competed in the past 15 runnings and NONE have won which a negative against DIAMOND HARRY.

I beleive the winner will come from MIKAEL D'HAGUENET , COUSIN VINNY or BENSALEM.

A definate choice will be made nearer the time .
 
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Old 05-03-09, 08:54 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Diamond Harry should, in theory at least, run a lot better than he did when beating Bensalem last time. He looked incredibly light to my eye, something Nick Williams touched on on the day, and it came as no surprise that he was really made to work.

He should be in much better shape for next week (but he's most definitely a 'bet on the day' horse now).

He's no price after his recent sale to J P McManus, but Karabak is by far the likeliest winner for me. He was seriously impressive at Ascot last time, already has course form to his name and won't, as has been claimed, suffer without Robert Thornton on board.

I haven't been as impressed as some by Mikael D'Haguenet thus far, so The Nightingale (apparently working very well) would be the one I fear.
 
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Old 10-03-09, 07:47 PM   #4 (permalink)
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The Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race in the United Kingdom for four-year-old and above novices. It is run over a distance of 2 miles 5 furlongs (4,225 metres) on the Old Course at Cheltenham Racecourse during the Cheltenham Festival in March. There are ten hurdles to be jumped in the race.

The race was introduced in 1971 as the Aldsworth Hurdle and the name was changed in 1974 when the insurance company Sun Alliance began sponsoring the race. It became the Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle, which was altered to Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle after the merger of Royal Insurance and Sun Alliance in 1996. The race has been run under its present sponsored title since 2007 and is registered as the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle.

Theresa bit of history for you taken from Wikipedia, and now I’m going to try and find you the winner, so far we haven’t done too badly with our other previews, snaring an each-way about Kalahari King who failed by the narrowest of short-heads, and Quevega doing the business in emphatic style at our advised 3-1 price.

China Rock
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A decent second behind Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Go Native two outings ago over a trip short of his best. Despite the result only reading a 1.75L defeat by the former now Cheltenham Champion it could have been alot more given the ease of the victory, but an impressive turnout next time saw China Rock beat the respectable yardstick in Baltiman by 25 lengths, but could have been counted a little lucky after favourite Head Of The Posse fell when coming to mount a challenge under David Casey. Paddy Power has him priced up at 22-1 and looks to have about that much of a chance here, but could surprise with the conditions underfoot soft.
PaddyPower Price: 22-1

Diamond Harry
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Unbeaten in six starts to date the gelded son of Sir Harry Lewis has shown top class form to date and comes here with an excellent chance of extending that winning streak. An impressive defeat of the more experienced Junior (A horse who finished 1.5L third off 133 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.) at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle reads very well in the context of this and the race he won last time at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day is a good indicator as a rule for this race with Wichita Lineman winning in 2007 and had Tidal Bay, Massini's Maguire (first and second in that season's Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle) and Osana all behind. Trainer Nick Williams has his string performing with credit and Timmy Murphy (who has ridden him to all six victories) retains the ride on this impressive sort and he ought to go close.
PaddyPower Price: 9-2

Junior
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse that has been firmly put in his place by Diamond Harry and Cape Tribulation on his latest two efforts, despite his respectable third off 133 in last year’s Coral Cup lacks the class needed to land this event. Will run its usual race in defeat but is likely to find almost half this field too strong.
PaddyPower Price: 33-1

Karabak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The first string from the Alan King stable and the horse that Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton would have been riding had it not been for JP McManus snaring this smart staying prospect shortly before the festival. With that it means his retained jockey Tony McCoy takes over in the saddle and he won’t find a better prospect to jump on than this. A horse that was outpointed on hurdles debut behind the class yet huge Mad Max but showed considerable promise in running a gallant second to that rival (who re-opposes here) before taking the scalps of the once highly-regarded Mahonia from the Paul Nicholls camp, en-route to further success and this time a seriously impressive one when disposing of some useful rivals at Ascot. His latest effort put 20L between him and Somersby (who since ran third in the Supreme Novices today) and has to be hugely respected. The only worry for me with this would be the ground, the ground has looked plenty soft enough to my eye and he’s been exclusively campaigned on decent ground to date, and his older half-sister run her best races on Good racing ground.
PaddyPower Price: 7-2

Knockara Beau
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A real solid chance here for small northern trainer George Charlton. The Northumberland handler has a smart improving sort here and the six year old son of Leading Counsel made eye-catching late headway to wheel away from smart opposition over 18F at Kelso last time in Grade 2 Company. He looks a horse with a bright future over fences so anything he does in this sphere can be regarded a bonus. The extra distance here looks ideal and a course like Cheltenham will play to his strengths, as will the ground and the uphill finish. He merits plenty of respect and is worth keeping on side at the current double figure odds.
PaddyPower Price: 18-1

Mad Max
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A huge stamp of a horse and well regarded by Team Henderson, this large animal is unbeaten in all four starts today and recorded his fastest postmark in soft conditions last time. I still believe he’s a horse that prefers better ground than what he’ll most probably encounter here tomorrow and looks every inch a chaser in the making. That said the Henderson team are in great form at the moment and Barry Geraghty is in top form riding two winners at The Festival so far. Holds Karabak on Ascot form when the pair last met, that rival has since progressed as has Mad Max, so it’s shaping up to be an exciting race.
PaddyPower Price: 6-1

Mikael D’Haguenet
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse which has shown impressive form since his arrival from France and another held in very high regard by Willie Mullins. The word from the Emerald Isle is that this horse is expected to collect here and after his latest effort over a trip short of his best, in despatching the fair Donnas Palm (a horse who’d earlier finished a 0.25L second to Hurricane Fly) it looks like they could be right about this one. Donnas Palm was then beaten 45L when finishing last to Hurricane Fly when they met again, he’d had a hard race the first time against that rival and his jumping went to pot. The Hurricane Fly form looks awesomely strong at present, with both Go Native (Supreme Novices) and Quevega (David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) franking it with flying colours. Mikael D’Haguenet also dispatched of the well regarded Pandorama by 7L when the pair met last, a horse who was still travelling well when Cousin Vinny departed company at the last when the latter two met ahead of The Festival, overall the form looks very strong. Add to the fact that Ruby Walsh has jumped on board this instead of the Paul Nicholls trained The Nightingale and you have a strong fancy from camp Cheltenhamtips.
PaddyPower Price: 3-1

Quwetwo
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: This will be one for the measurement stakes as to who is the biggest horse out of Quwetwo and Mad Max, I’m sure the tape measures will be out in force ahead of their intended assignment. The former Sue Smith trained gelding destroyed a moderate field in a Newcastle bumper at a rather handsome 7-1 on return from a break and it’s with a smug smile I type that because a close friend of mine had given me ‘the nod’ to get onboard that day, so he holds a special place in my heart after that bank boosting effort. He then switched hands to Howard Johnson for a princely sum and moved to new owner Graham Wylie, and despite that he was still able to go off at a backable price (9-2) on hurdles debut where once again he galloped them into the ground. He then won again at Ayr in an egg and spoon race in a fitness tune-up for this assignment. He looks to have the possibilities of going very well here for a strong team but I feel this horse will be more a chaser than a hurdler, and perhaps will get outpaced at a vital stage in this contest.
PaddyPower Price: 16-1

Realt Dubh
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held on form by Mikael D’Haguenet and is also held through the Cousin Vinny/Hurricane Fly line of form. Is unexposed over this trip but doesn’t look to have it in the locker to serve it up to the principles in this contest and at best could sneak a potential place.
PaddyPower Price: 22-1

The Nightingale
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Paul Nicholls has a fair sort here in The Nightingale who has shown decent form in the book to date. A good second in a Grade 2 bumper behind Mad Max he made his hurdling debut at Exeter before slipping on the run-in and awarding Shalone the race. Shalone would probably have won anyway, but it was good to see the Cadoudal gelding get back on his feet looking none the worse for that, and made light work of his opposition when next seen at Taunton – and the second has since racked up a double in Handicap Company and looks to be improving. No doubt he has plenty to find to mix it with the very best here, but he has a capable pilot in Christian Williams on board and Paul Nicholls wouldn’t throw him in at the deep end if he didn’t think he was capable of producing.
PaddyPower Price: 12-1

Verdict: Another mind-bogglingly hard race to assess but I just think it’ll pay to side with the form choice MIKAEL D’HAGUENET now that Ruby Walsh has been confirmed to ride this French bred. Willie Mullins has his string in good heart having already had a winner in Quevega running away with the Mares Hurdle. This horse represents a similar form line to that mare, and is worthy of plenty respect.

2pt win – Mikael D’Haguenet @ 3-1
0.25pt each-way – Knockara Beau @ 18-1
 
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Old 10-03-09, 08:42 PM   #5 (permalink)
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DIAMOND HARRY is a seriously impressive traveller, he must have a great chance
 
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Old 10-03-09, 08:43 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Mikael D'Haguenet looks a good thing to me. I have Realt Dubh and China Rock as place prospects.
 
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Old 10-03-09, 11:16 PM   #7 (permalink)
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What a bloody race. Hard to split Mikael D'Haguenet, Diamond Harry, Karabak and Mad Max.....

I ain't got a clue at the moment!
 
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Old 11-03-09, 10:03 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Thommo View Post
What a bloody race. Hard to split Mikael D'Haguenet, Diamond Harry, Karabak and Mad Max.....

I ain't got a clue at the moment!
7yo's have a terrible record mate (Mad Max)
And 9 of the last 11 winners ran in a graded race last time out which would rule out Karabak.

If the horse is good enough tho.......
 
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Old 11-03-09, 11:03 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Cant see past Mad Max. Think good pace and extra trip will be huge asset to him, and he beat Karabak fair and square earlier in year.
 
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Old 11-03-09, 02:13 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Geraghty never gave Mad Max a chance after the 3rd last.

Thought Karabak was slightly unlucky, McCoy came too late again it seems was getting there all the time.
 
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Old 11-03-09, 02:16 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Race just didn't pan out for Karabak, never looked like winning, Diamond Harry [who my money was on] travelled well enough but just didn't have the pace of the winner down the straight, impressive from Mikael D’Haguenet, machine.
 
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Old 11-03-09, 07:09 PM   #12 (permalink)
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My first post for a while, been to busy setting up home in sunny Spain.
Had my first bet for a few months,Mikael d,. Cheers J.
 
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Old 11-03-09, 09:25 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Thommo View Post
Thought Karabak was slightly unlucky, McCoy came too late again it seems was getting there all the time.
Considering he was pushed along miles from home, I think McCoy did bloody well getting him into second. The horse ran a totally different race to normal, he's shown an electric cut of speed when seen in previous races, yet looked a one paced plodder today.

Still, landed some tasty bets on Mikael D'Haguenet, and another winner for the Cheltenham Tips Previews.
 
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Old 12-03-09, 12:42 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Far from it, Jamie, I thought McCoy rode a terrible race on Karabak.

He lost his somewhat ideal position as the race progressed, failing to cover the moves of Mad Max, Mikael D'Haguenet and Diamond Harry. As the pace quickened he had to bring his mount right around the horses he had, only two or three minutes before, been sitting comfortably inside. As they turned into the straight Karabak went so wide that he was never likely to catch the winner. The fact he got so close is testament to the horse's ability.

I know who I'd back if the front two met again.
 
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