Tuesday - Supreme Novices' Hurdle - OHR

**The Duke** · **20-01-09**, **07:49 PM**

Thoughts to follow...

**Hexham VIP** · **18-02-09**, **03:57 PM**

Does anyone think Hurricane Fly will run in this race and if he does do they think it will win??
His sire(Montjeu's) record at Cheltenham is 0 wins out of 21 runs.
I dont think it is worth backing any of Mullins horses till the day now.

**The Duke** · **18-02-09**, **05:08 PM**

Mullins horses are always underpriced at Cheltenham and thus there's no real value backing them on the weeks up until Cheltenham, especially for the bumper.

I think Hurricane Fly may be aimed to the Champion which he holds very strong claims in my eyes - and would pave way for Cousin Vinny to launch his assault at the Supreme?

Surely Mullins wouldn't run them against each other would he? I know he did in Ireland but Cheltenham is a whole different ball game.

**Hexham VIP** · **18-02-09**, **06:58 PM**

He might send Cousin Vinny for the Ballymore and Hurricane Fly for the Supreme if that splint injury has healed in time.

**FMH** · **18-02-09**, **07:49 PM**

Mullins horses are underpriced no matter where or when they race, they have to be respected though. Especially in the Bumper.

Interesting stat about Montjeu's record at Cheltenham HVIP, I like stats and stuff but as I always say, if the horse is good enough, it'll win. Isn't montjeu more of a flat sire than anything? This might explain something.

I tend to avoid any horse that has ever ran on the flat at Cheltenham as overall they have a poor record. Hurricane Fly falls into this category.

**talkingspeedway** · **18-02-09**, **08:04 PM**

Michael Flips is strongly fancied by connections, but I'm more inclined to side with Red Moloney at the moment. I backed Karabak earlier in the season, but after impressive victories at Cheltenham and Ascot he's clearly Ballymore bound.

Hurricane Fly has serious potential, but we still don't know a) what he beat last time out, and b) whether he will travel as strongly in a top class race. Concerns aside, Mullins won't risk him unless he's 100% so backing him ante-post for any race has to be risky (though the injury rules him out of the Champion Hurdle at the very least in my opinion).

As for Cousin Vinny, I'm just not a fan.

**The Duke** · **18-02-09**, **08:37 PM**

I think Michael Flips has a great chance in the race and you are quite correct he is held in high regard. I'm sure I've nibbled him at 25-1 with one firm, need to locate which one it is though but it's only few a few roubles at most.

**Salmon Spray** · **19-02-09**, **06:03 AM**

If Hurricane Fly runs in the Supreme then Sunnyhillboy will most lilkely go for the Balmore leaving AP McCoy free to ride Michael Flips. It would be a bit over the top to say connections fancying him strongly with the Irish entries but he must have a fair chance.

I have severe doubts about Hurricane Fly going for the Champion, they would have to be stone mad to take on Binocular. It's far more likely he will run in the Supreme and Mullins will go double handed in the Balmore.

**talkingspeedway** · **19-02-09**, **08:42 AM**

It isn't over the top, Salmon Spray, because, apparently, they do.

If I've been mildly mis-informed, him winning at 25/1 will sooth the pain

**Salmon Spray** · **20-02-09**, **03:46 AM**

My worry with him is I was told the self same thing back in December and that the owner had a fairly ordinary EW bet on him. He was 20-25/1 then and was still the same price for a very long time.

His price only dropped the other day when the doubt about Hurricane Fly started. For a horse that is supposidly strongly fancied and supposidly is going to be ridden by AP McCoy he's still some price at 18/1.

Lotta wishful thinking going on me thinks

**talkingspeedway** · **20-02-09**, **12:32 PM**

As far as I'm aware the owner has backed him to win at 25/1, and his price started to drop long before Hurricane Run's injury was reported.

Paddy Power were offering 20/1 last week, but are now into 14/1, and he's a general 14/16s chance everywhere else (other than Sporting Odds who go 18s).

**FMH** · **20-02-09**, **08:08 PM**

Originally Posted by talkingspeedway

As far as I'm aware the owner has backed him to win at 25/1, and his price started to drop long before Hurricane Run's injury was reported.

Paddy Power were offering 20/1 last week, but are now into 14/1, and he's a general 14/16s chance everywhere else (other than Sporting Odds who go 18s).

He must be completely mental to back it to win at 25's. Thing is, when these rich owners back their horses for instance £1000 e/w, it's the same as me having a fiver e/w on a horse. They've got so much money they aint bothered about it and it's all relative.

My bookie has an owner who bets with him and he had £500 e/w on one of his horses at 50/1 once, when asked if it had a chance the owner said he was only backing it cos it was his horse and it had no real chance. So people backing horses just because the owners had a big bet on is madness really.

I'm not saying this is the case here, but to me, if the owner has had a win bet at 25's, it sounds like he's got some spare cash he doesn't give a shit about.

Anyway, hope it goes well for ya.

**talkingspeedway** · **20-02-09**, **11:05 PM**

I don't believe I said I had backed Michael Flips, merely commented on what I had been told. The only bet I have had in the race is on Red Moloney at everything from 33/1 to 20/1.

**The Duke** · **21-02-09**, **10:17 AM**

I disagree here Paul. I'm all for backing antepost but really I'd never do anything other than win antepost anyway, simply because there's a chance your horse my not even turn up at the festival and the odds you are truly getting about a 20-25/1 shot are realistically around 11/1 in my book.

I like to lower the risk on my purchase by backing them win only and I'm sure many other do the same.

**FMH** · **21-02-09**, **05:27 PM**

Originally Posted by The Duke

I disagree here Paul. I'm all for backing antepost but really I'd never do anything other than win antepost anyway, simply because there's a chance your horse my not even turn up at the festival and the odds you are truly getting about a 20-25/1 shot are realistically around 11/1 in my book.

I like to lower the risk on my purchase by backing them win only and I'm sure many other do the same.

I see what you're saying, but surely the owner would know the chances of their horse running at the meeting? I very rarely back antepost as there are too many thing that can change.

If you got 11/1 about the same horse on the day you would back it each way though wouldn't you.....WOULDN'T YOU!

**The Duke** · **22-02-09**, **12:33 PM**

Of course, thats why theres a different in backing on the day and antepost. I must admit I much prefer betting on 'the day'.

**stocksy** · **25-02-09**, **04:14 PM**

I have just had my first bet if the festival...

Supre Nov Hurdle - Karabak 270/1 to win on BF!

Why I hear you ask? Because I wanted to back Killyglen in the RSA Chase. So I logged on to attheraces for a price search, clicked on the wrong race ie the Supreme Nov and thought Karabak was Killyglen! Schoolboy error! Oh well heres hoping!

**FMH** · **25-02-09**, **04:59 PM**

Cousin Vinny for me up to now.

**The Duke** · **25-02-09**, **07:44 PM**

Originally Posted by stocksy

Why I hear you ask? Because I wanted to back Killyglen in the RSA Chase. So I logged on to attheraces for a price search, clicked on the wrong race ie the Supreme Nov and thought Karabak was Killyglen! Schoolboy error! Oh well heres hoping!

Shrewd man. Thats the way to pick them Cheltenham winners Stocksy.

**Spook** · **02-03-09**, **04:37 PM**

Originally Posted by The Duke

I disagree here Paul. I'm all for backing antepost but really I'd never do anything other than win antepost anyway, simply because there's a chance your horse my not even turn up at the festival and the odds you are truly getting about a 20-25/1 shot are realistically around 11/1 in my book.

I like to lower the risk on my purchase by backing them win only and I'm sure many other do the same.

Jamie's absolutely right when you're talking in terms of trying to develop an ante-post position. There's no point backing for the place really (and especially if you've placed the bet on the exchanges). The objective is to get yourself into a position to maximise your drag. Let's assume he's backed £100 at 25/1 for a drag of £2,500. If he'd placed the bet e/w his drag would be £312.50 the place and £1,562 the win, and have no better chance of winning really in the wider scheme of things.

Now the novice hurdle races at Cheltenham have a history of cutting up anyway, and that's before we even bring injury into play. 4yo's can take in the Triumph or Fred Winter now, and in recent seasons we've even seen the fastest novice (Osana) routed to the County Hurdle. Knowing what the plans are can be very helpful and I'd expect Michael Flips to go off at about 8/1 and 6/1 if they can find a decent pilot. At this point Jamie only needs to lay a little bit back from his larger 'drag' to cover his place option, with another bet, or simply back the horse place only if he wants to defend the £2,500 position.

Depending on when you place the bet, you need to take about 30% off the price to give you some idea of what the 'real' price is that you're taking. As the race date gets nearer however, and your selection has stood its ground and remained injury free, then your price starts to deflect back towards the price that you actually took (if that makes sense).

Owners money, as has been documented reflects their wealth as not all of them are punters. I'm given to understand that Graham Wylie never puts more than a few quid on a horse for instance, yet no one would suggest that Inglis Drever shouldn't be backed for it. It's always worth remembering that there's the not inconsiderable issue of prize money, so why would they need to back their own horse to win a few thousand? which for someone like Wylie, is a few pence to us. A few years back some business person put £1000 or something on Greece to win the European Championships at 100/1. The RP went into fits about it and desparately tried to get an interview with this inspired get rich punter. He declined for his part and couldn't understand the fuss. It transpired he was a billionaire who was having a lugh with £1000 - meant nothing to him.

In effect a horse is already running for them, and the sensible thing for them to do from a gambling perspective would be to find someone else to back an alternative for them. Knowing a running intention can be helpful though. A couple of years ago (and credit to Mark Winstanley for acknowledging and apologising when other journos would have gone silent and air-brushed it from history) the owner of 'Hide the Evidence' stuck Winstanley away telling him privately (and in the knowledge that he'd publish it) that the horse was heading for the Supreme. I minor gamble developed, before it went for the Ballymore!!! Winstanley did have the last laugh, as the horse was stuffed, but admitted he'd lost a small packet on it

**Salmon Spray** · **02-03-09**, **10:38 PM**

With Hurricane Fly gone this has a wide open look to it. I don't fancy Cousin Vinny and I think something will beat him. only wish I knew what.

I was going to have an EW bet on Sunnyhillboy but Jonjo is contemplating doing a Martin Pipe with him and going for the Imperial County hurdle double.

I heard last week JP other horse Ainama will wait for Aintree and AP will now ride the big tip Micheal Flips who I wish now I had backed at 25/1. AP must know the time of day with him haven also ridden Torphichen

It certainly doesn't look anywhere near as competitive as least year so good luck to those who got on.

**Chris Verner** · **04-03-09**, **09:43 AM**

You've got to be kidding about Cousin Vinny, he would have won his last race easily had he not made a little error, surely the 5's available last week was a great bit of business?

**The Duke** · **04-03-09**, **09:49 AM**

Have to agree Chris V, however there's a big difference between an egg and spoon race in Ireland than a fast pace race at Cheltenham. That said he's won the bumper here last year and has clearly shown a liking for the track, he should be around 5-2, 11-4 in my book on the day, no shorter. He's my idea of the winner if Michael Flips doesn't produce the goods.

**givemeabreak** · **04-03-09**, **11:19 AM**

Surpreme Novice.1.30pm Tuesday 10th March

General Consinsis was that this is an average Surpreme novice.

Ruby

When i first saw cousin vinny i said to myself that this one will go far, its a really nice animal, travels strongly and has a massive turn of foot.Obviously it looks like i wont be riding it but i think his improved alot recently and looks a really nice price at 3s,

Michael Flips is very good value at 14s, if he turns up he wont be far away.
Kempes is a good animal but doesnt appear to be in the same league as cousin vinny.I wont be backing him at 8s as his not an EW horse
Ainama was bitterly dissapointing last time out and will have to improve.

Davy Russell

Michael Flips has showed to be a good animal but he might want a bit of ease in the ground.
Cant have Red Moloney

Dave Nevison

For me the bet does look to be Michael Flips but only if AP is on board, if AP is on board i will be having a piece of double figure price.

Pat keane

Cousin vinny looks the best horse in the race bit im really concerned about patrick on board, he will be facing seasoned jockeys who will have their homework done but his still the horse which i want. Maybe cousin vinny might want good ground only
Torphichen cant be overlooked as if his stable start firing they always fire good.
Kangeroo Court wont make it up the hill

This is taken from notes written on a preview night by an Irish friend of mine who attended, not sure how relevant or even interesting it might be to others but thought i would stick it up anyway.
There is more if it is of interest to anyone

**FMH** · **04-03-09**, **09:32 PM**

My short(long)list consists of:

Aachen
Ainama
China Rock
Cousin Vinny
Go Native
Kempes
Medermit
Michael Flips
Mikael De Haguenet

I'll have to wait and see how the race cuts up, will probably go for something Irish, Cousin Vinny should have been discarded on stats, but would have won if he hadn't messed up the last fence last time out. Willie Mullins reported that young Mullins sent him over the last with a bit of pressure to sharpen him up for Cheltenham.

I'm quite keen on Mikael De Haguenet if he goes, after some upbeat reports from Ruby about him and some not so good reports about Kempes.

20-01-09, 07:49 PM	#1 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Tuesday - Supreme Novices' Hurdle Thoughts to follow...

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18-02-09, 03:57 PM	#2 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	Does anyone think Hurricane Fly will run in this race and if he does do they think it will win?? His sire(Montjeu's) record at Cheltenham is 0 wins out of 21 runs. I dont think it is worth backing any of Mullins horses till the day now.

18-02-09, 05:08 PM	#3 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Mullins horses are always underpriced at Cheltenham and thus there's no real value backing them on the weeks up until Cheltenham, especially for the bumper. I think Hurricane Fly may be aimed to the Champion which he holds very strong claims in my eyes - and would pave way for Cousin Vinny to launch his assault at the Supreme? Surely Mullins wouldn't run them against each other would he? I know he did in Ireland but Cheltenham is a whole different ball game.

18-02-09, 06:58 PM	#4 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	He might send Cousin Vinny for the Ballymore and Hurricane Fly for the Supreme if that splint injury has healed in time.

18-02-09, 07:49 PM	#5 (permalink)
FMH Back From The Dead Join Date: Sep 2006	Mullins horses are underpriced no matter where or when they race, they have to be respected though. Especially in the Bumper. Interesting stat about Montjeu's record at Cheltenham HVIP, I like stats and stuff but as I always say, if the horse is good enough, it'll win. Isn't montjeu more of a flat sire than anything? This might explain something. I tend to avoid any horse that has ever ran on the flat at Cheltenham as overall they have a poor record. Hurricane Fly falls into this category.

18-02-09, 08:04 PM	#6 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	Michael Flips is strongly fancied by connections, but I'm more inclined to side with Red Moloney at the moment. I backed Karabak earlier in the season, but after impressive victories at Cheltenham and Ascot he's clearly Ballymore bound. Hurricane Fly has serious potential, but we still don't know a) what he beat last time out, and b) whether he will travel as strongly in a top class race. Concerns aside, Mullins won't risk him unless he's 100% so backing him ante-post for any race has to be risky (though the injury rules him out of the Champion Hurdle at the very least in my opinion). As for Cousin Vinny, I'm just not a fan.

18-02-09, 08:37 PM	#7 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	I think Michael Flips has a great chance in the race and you are quite correct he is held in high regard. I'm sure I've nibbled him at 25-1 with one firm, need to locate which one it is though but it's only few a few roubles at most.

19-02-09, 06:03 AM	#8 (permalink)
Salmon Spray Selling Plater Join Date: Jan 2009	If Hurricane Fly runs in the Supreme then Sunnyhillboy will most lilkely go for the Balmore leaving AP McCoy free to ride Michael Flips. It would be a bit over the top to say connections fancying him strongly with the Irish entries but he must have a fair chance. I have severe doubts about Hurricane Fly going for the Champion, they would have to be stone mad to take on Binocular. It's far more likely he will run in the Supreme and Mullins will go double handed in the Balmore.

19-02-09, 08:42 AM	#9 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	It isn't over the top, Salmon Spray, because, apparently, they do. If I've been mildly mis-informed, him winning at 25/1 will sooth the pain

20-02-09, 03:46 AM	#10 (permalink)
Salmon Spray Selling Plater Join Date: Jan 2009	My worry with him is I was told the self same thing back in December and that the owner had a fairly ordinary EW bet on him. He was 20-25/1 then and was still the same price for a very long time. His price only dropped the other day when the doubt about Hurricane Fly started. For a horse that is supposidly strongly fancied and supposidly is going to be ridden by AP McCoy he's still some price at 18/1. Lotta wishful thinking going on me thinks

20-02-09, 12:32 PM	#11 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	As far as I'm aware the owner has backed him to win at 25/1, and his price started to drop long before Hurricane Run's injury was reported. Paddy Power were offering 20/1 last week, but are now into 14/1, and he's a general 14/16s chance everywhere else (other than Sporting Odds who go 18s).

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20-02-09, 11:05 PM	#13 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	I don't believe I said I had backed Michael Flips, merely commented on what I had been told. The only bet I have had in the race is on Red Moloney at everything from 33/1 to 20/1.

21-02-09, 10:17 AM	#14 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	I disagree here Paul. I'm all for backing antepost but really I'd never do anything other than win antepost anyway, simply because there's a chance your horse my not even turn up at the festival and the odds you are truly getting about a 20-25/1 shot are realistically around 11/1 in my book. I like to lower the risk on my purchase by backing them win only and I'm sure many other do the same.

22-02-09, 12:33 PM	#16 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Of course, thats why theres a different in backing on the day and antepost. I must admit I much prefer betting on 'the day'.

25-02-09, 04:14 PM	#17 (permalink)
stocksy World Class Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Shottingham	I have just had my first bet if the festival... Supre Nov Hurdle - Karabak 270/1 to win on BF! Why I hear you ask? Because I wanted to back Killyglen in the RSA Chase. So I logged on to attheraces for a price search, clicked on the wrong race ie the Supreme Nov and thought Karabak was Killyglen! Schoolboy error! Oh well heres hoping!

25-02-09, 04:59 PM	#18 (permalink)
FMH Back From The Dead Join Date: Sep 2006	Cousin Vinny for me up to now.

02-03-09, 10:38 PM	#21 (permalink)
Salmon Spray Selling Plater Join Date: Jan 2009	With Hurricane Fly gone this has a wide open look to it. I don't fancy Cousin Vinny and I think something will beat him. only wish I knew what. I was going to have an EW bet on Sunnyhillboy but Jonjo is contemplating doing a Martin Pipe with him and going for the Imperial County hurdle double. I heard last week JP other horse Ainama will wait for Aintree and AP will now ride the big tip Micheal Flips who I wish now I had backed at 25/1. AP must know the time of day with him haven also ridden Torphichen It certainly doesn't look anywhere near as competitive as least year so good luck to those who got on.

04-03-09, 09:43 AM	#22 (permalink)
Chris Verner Well Handicapped Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Darvel	You've got to be kidding about Cousin Vinny, he would have won his last race easily had he not made a little error, surely the 5's available last week was a great bit of business?

04-03-09, 09:49 AM	#23 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Have to agree Chris V, however there's a big difference between an egg and spoon race in Ireland than a fast pace race at Cheltenham. That said he's won the bumper here last year and has clearly shown a liking for the track, he should be around 5-2, 11-4 in my book on the day, no shorter. He's my idea of the winner if Michael Flips doesn't produce the goods.

04-03-09, 11:19 AM	#24 (permalink)
givemeabreak World Class Join Date: Jul 2007	Surpreme Novice.1.30pm Tuesday 10th March General Consinsis was that this is an average Surpreme novice. Ruby When i first saw cousin vinny i said to myself that this one will go far, its a really nice animal, travels strongly and has a massive turn of foot.Obviously it looks like i wont be riding it but i think his improved alot recently and looks a really nice price at 3s, Michael Flips is very good value at 14s, if he turns up he wont be far away. Kempes is a good animal but doesnt appear to be in the same league as cousin vinny.I wont be backing him at 8s as his not an EW horse Ainama was bitterly dissapointing last time out and will have to improve. Davy Russell Michael Flips has showed to be a good animal but he might want a bit of ease in the ground. Cant have Red Moloney Dave Nevison For me the bet does look to be Michael Flips but only if AP is on board, if AP is on board i will be having a piece of double figure price. Pat keane Cousin vinny looks the best horse in the race bit im really concerned about patrick on board, he will be facing seasoned jockeys who will have their homework done but his still the horse which i want. Maybe cousin vinny might want good ground only Torphichen cant be overlooked as if his stable start firing they always fire good. Kangeroo Court wont make it up the hill This is taken from notes written on a preview night by an Irish friend of mine who attended, not sure how relevant or even interesting it might be to others but thought i would stick it up anyway. There is more if it is of interest to anyone

04-03-09, 09:32 PM	#25 (permalink)
FMH Back From The Dead Join Date: Sep 2006	My short(long)list consists of: Aachen Ainama China Rock Cousin Vinny Go Native Kempes Medermit Michael Flips Mikael De Haguenet I'll have to wait and see how the race cuts up, will probably go for something Irish, Cousin Vinny should have been discarded on stats, but would have won if he hadn't messed up the last fence last time out. Willie Mullins reported that young Mullins sent him over the last with a bit of pressure to sharpen him up for Cheltenham. I'm quite keen on Mikael De Haguenet if he goes, after some upbeat reports from Ruby about him and some not so good reports about Kempes.