Tuesday - Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle

[The Duke]

Thoughts to follow...

[Thommo]

What does everyone think about Binocular and Kasbah Bliss double?

Seen William Hill were offering 4/1 for both to win. Looks attractive to me...

[The Duke]

Dont think Binocular will win myself, and my reasoning will follow before the end of the week.

[FMH]

Firstly 5 year old don't win this race so thats enough for me to discount it straight away.

Even money is just stupid for any horse at Cheltenham.

Horses with less than 9 career starts have a poor record.

There are many negatives surrounding Binocular, although he looks good on the face of it and Timeform have said he's 1/2 stone better than anyhting else in the race.

I'm personally lumping on Osana which I think is a good thing.

[del boy]

If there is any chance of soft ground then i think Brave Inca has a chance of running a big race. I am also against Binocular, dont think it will get up the hill. Osana could run a big race, expecially with Andy Mc aboard.

[Thommo]

Sorry am I missing something or didn't Katchit win it last year as a 5yr old???

The first in a long time ok but it just shows stats mean nothing on the day.

I have never been a fan of Binocular but it seems crazy to take him on judging on the way he won last time out... 6/4 available aswell.

[FMH]

Originally Posted by Thommo

Sorry am I missing something or didn't Katchit win it last year as a 5yr old??? The first in a long time ok but it just shows stats mean nothing on the day. I have never been a fan of Binocular but it seems crazy to take him on judging on the way he won last time out... 6/4 available aswell.

Sorry Thommo, my stats dont take last year into account. Like I've always said, stats are good, but if the horse is good enough, it'll win. But 1 5yo winner in 37 years is a strong statistic as is the under 9 runs one.

You can back him at 6/4 if you want, I'll look forward to your rant about how it was the jockeys fault it got beat or that racing is fixed. Osana hacks up mate, simple as.

[The Duke]

Originally Posted by del boy

If there is any chance of soft ground then i think Brave Inca has a chance of running a big race. I am also against Binocular, dont think it will get up the hill. Osana could run a big race, expecially with Andy Mc aboard.

I second that, and we know he loves Cheltenham, 33-1 is ludicrously large.

[Thommo]

Osana rates the only danger in my opinion so I agree with you there.

I don't see why you can say it will hack up though. Binocular has the potential to be a superstar and Osana had every chance last year behind Katchit, a 5yr old who doesn't have the potential of an even better 5yr old this season... if you know what I mean.. lol..

Anyway, Osana's ran last time out caught my eye, not pushed about and I do agree it will be on the premises.

[del boy]

Originally Posted by The Duke

I second that, and we know he loves Cheltenham, 33-1 is ludicrously large.

I was speaking to one of the Syndicate lately and they think hes as good as ever.

[FMH]

Originally Posted by Thommo

Osana rates the only danger in my opinion so I agree with you there. I don't see why you can say it will hack up though. Binocular has the potential to be a superstar and Osana had every chance last year behind Katchit, a 5yr old who doesn't have the potential of an even better 5yr old this season... if you know what I mean.. lol.. Anyway, Osana's ran last time out caught my eye, not pushed about and I do agree it will be on the premises.

Im just being optimistic mate. I'll be lumping on e/w, Binocular will be hard to beat on what its shown, but I've lost count of all the Cheltenham bankers that have got beat and then you look at them afterwards and think 'oh yeah, it was a 5yo so maybe I shouldn't have backed it'.

I see wot you're saying, but with so many negatives around it I reckon it will get beat especially with AP on board who I personally don't like backing at Cheltenham, but Henderson is IMO the best trainer around and if anyone can get this horse to win it's him.

Osana has the perfect statistic profile (and I mean perfect) so it looks a fantastic bet to me. I'll also be having a dabble on Brave Inca. Maybe an Osana/Binocular/Brave Ince STC.

[Thommo]

I do like Osana myself now mate and I will be on EW at 10's

Just seen his run last time behind Celestial Halo and he wasn't trying, simple as that.

[Hexham VIP]

I think he is worth taking on as well, I have already backed Jered and Muirhead ante post.
It will be interesting to hear what Alan King says about how Katchit has been training, I know he hasnt run well this season but his course record is great (5 wins out of 6 races and 1 second place).

[Salmon Spray]

First off I have been backing Binocular since March 15th 2008 for this years renewal so you could say I am biased.

Those opposing him continually bring up the same argument:-The Cheltenham hill.

This stems back to his defeat by Captain Cee Bee in last season Supreme but those who harp back to it are forgetting or unaware of a couple of important factors. He was a fairly inexperienced horse taking on his elders and 3-4 days before the meeting Nicky Henderson thought he was to miss the meeting altogether.

Binocular was taken out of the Triumph and taken out of the betting for the Supreme 48 hours before the race. Then an 11th hour decision was made and Nicky Henderson was instructed to run him in the Supreme for which he opened at 16/1 before being supported into about 8/1.

The point is you have a young horse thrown in at the deep end who's trainer thought wasn't going to run. I am told he was short of a gallop which came as no surprise to me after the nonsense his trainer put up with.

Binocular is the most complete hurdler I have seen on a race course in a very long time. He 's a faster and more economical hurdler than the great Istabraq and moves with same same sort of grace. Whether he has good an engine we will have to wait and see but when AP McCoy tells you he is the best horse he has ever ridden and won't hear of defeat I suggest you listen.

There is talk of horses outstaying him if it comes up soft yet in his first race at Ascot on heavy ground he went through it very easily and won in a canter. His trainer reckons the hill presents no problem whatsoever as he will go there fitter and stronger than last year.

Obviously I think he's a good thing but our good things can be beaten or we would all be rich.

Most people expect Osana to make the running but it's not going to happen. He will be ridden off the pace just behind the leaders Ashkabar and whatever else wants to be up front. I would expect him to tray and take it up approaching the 3rd last. Ridden that way he could reverse places with Katchit.

Katchit himself is on much the same footing as last season. Trained specifically for this race he could easily bounce back and win again.

Celestial Halo: PN is wishful thinking with this one. 2nd favourite
for this despite the fact Binocular is probably a stone better horse than him. He defeated an unfit Osana 3 1/2 lengths getting 4 lbs and common sense should tell the punter this is another falsly priced PN horse. I give him no chance.

Sublimity: Wouldn't get the trip in a bus in a fast run race. Will no doubt run well until he gets to the hill then he''ll go up and down on the same spot like he does every time he runs there. The only reason he won a couple of years back was poor opposition that stopped dead. His momentum took him 4 lengths clear then he stopped and there was nothing else to challenge him. Wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.

Crack Away Jack: Given to much to do for a big horse like him too early, the penny dropped and his trainer let him down to bring him back fresh. Forget his run behind Binocular, he will love the fast pace and will be picking them off in the final stages. Exc EW chance.

Sizing Europe: Look all over the winner last season and stopped like shot when injuring his back. Huge striding horse will love the strong gallop. His run behind Hardy Eustace was excellent and looked like he was on the way back. Been under a cloud but if he bounces back toi his best and wins it would come as no surprise. Would need a lot of trust to back him.

Punjabi: Lovely horse but I can see him being placed this year. It looks a much better race to me and he will probably just miss the places.

Jered: He is a worry as he is so hard to work out. Hated the soft ground behind Hardy Eustace. Owned by JP and his trainer has been grated permission to run him. He scares me and he could well give JP a 1-2 in the race.

Brave Inca: Between Istabraq and Katchit I would consider him a better horse than Hardy Eustace but still nowhere near good enough to compete at todays standards. Won't be sighted.

Harchibald: The one horse you have to fear and probably one of the best horse not to win a CH. He may just find the pace too hot for him despite the fact he travel very well in his races. Old age doesn't come itself but like all racing fans I'd cheer him home if he won. Can't see him being a factor though.

Whiteoak: If his trainer runsd her they should retire him to stud and keep her in racing. Utter madness to even think about running her. She would be tailed off after a circuit.

1. Binocular 2. Osnana 3. Crackaway Jack.

[skydog]

I have long thought Osana would win it this year & was starting to get worried when we didn't see him out but his 2nd place return was full of promise. I think he will win,full stop. The form of the King horse's as to put Katchit back in the picture. As as been mentioned, his record at Cheltenham is fantastic. He is certainly worth a small EW me thinks.

No doubting Binocular is a very good horse but this may come a year too soon IMO. Although he as won very easily this year the races he as won haven't been overly competitive have they?

Wouldn't surprise me if Sizing Europe won it. You know how these things work out, last year talk of the town,this year the forgotten horse & 10 times the price to boot!!! Andy Mc as deserted him so could that be Denis O'Regans fortune? Time will tell. Snap Tie is another that may come good at a course where he runs well. Hobbs & Johnson know the time of day re the Festival too.

In essence & IMHO it looks very open. I don't think Binocular is the next Istabraq (get on now for the next 3 CH's ) and I think there are at least 5 in with a major shout. I think a good bet may be the winning distance being a length or less as I think it will be tight.

[Thommo]

Don't see how people can say Binocular's win last time out wasn't in a competitive race.

Didn't he beat Celestial Halo, Katchit & Crack Away Jack hard on the steel?

3 Horses in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle betting...

[skydog]

Originally Posted by Thommo

Don't see how people can say Binocular's win last time out wasn't in a competitive race. Didn't he beat Celestial Halo, Katchit & Crack Away Jack hard on the steel? 3 Horses in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle betting...

Overly competitive I said. Yes he beat them but C.Halo was having seasonal debut,Katchit was totally out of form & had never ran at Ascot before & Crack Away ok I'll give you that one.
Just things to take into account when assessing everything mate

[Thommo]

Celestial Halo doesn't count anyway in my eyes. I have no idea why this horse is 8/1. Should be 20/1.

Beat an unfit Osana last time and made hard work of it and his formlines with Binocular give him no hope in hell of winning. I don't understand his price at all...

[Chris]

For once I agree with Thommo, if Celestial Halo wins I'll streak in Somerfield !!

For me Sentry Duty is the one people seem to be forgetting, he won't be far away trust me on that.

[tommy knight]

i think its safe to forget about any of last years CH runners. it was a substandard CH won by the youngest horse in the race. it will be won by another 5 year old this year, hopefully the fav, but ashkazar is a place certainty or possible winner. last years juveniles are better than their seniors.

[Salmon Spray]

Originally Posted by skydog

I have long thought Osana would win it this year & was starting to get worried when we didn't see him out but his 2nd place return was full of promise. I think he will win,full stop. The form of the King horse's as to put Katchit back in the picture. As as been mentioned, his record at Cheltenham is fantastic. He is certainly worth a small EW me thinks. No doubting Binocular is a very good horse but this may come a year too soon IMO. Although he as won very easily this year the races he as won haven't been overly competitive have they? Wouldn't surprise me if Sizing Europe won it. You know how these things work out, last year talk of the town,this year the forgotten horse & 10 times the price to boot!!! Andy Mc as deserted him so could that be Denis O'Regans fortune? Time will tell. Snap Tie is another that may come good at a course where he runs well. Hobbs & Johnson know the time of day re the Festival too. In essence & IMHO it looks very open. I don't think Binocular is the next Istabraq (get on now for the next 3 CH's ) and I think there are at least 5 in with a major shout. I think a good bet may be the winning distance being a length or less as I think it will be tight.

You make a very valid point on the race Binocular has won this season and you could extend that to last year as well. If it wasn't for the fact he just looks like a bloody good horse I would be questioning just how good he actually is. I thought last years Triumph was a dreadful race and always said Franchoek wasn't in the same class as Binocular.

It's always been on the back of my mind the form that made him favourite is based round the defeats of one horse: Celestial Halo whom I rate a less serious CH contender than most.

Like Master Minded it's not what Binocular has beat it's the way that he has done it.

At the beginning of the season I reckoned this was going to be the best Champion Hurdle since the Sea Pigeon Night Nurse days and really if you threw the recent form out the window it would be. Not a bad way to go either as it's amazing how many horses run badly all year then all of a sudden they turn up at Cheltenham and run the race of there lives.

How long has it been since we seen a Champion Hurdle like this one? Sizing Europe red hot fav last year cantering 3 out and went wrong, could win doing handstands if returning to his best. Osana runner up last year strongly fancied to go one better, Crack Away Jack a huge improving horse who loves Cheltenham and was reportedly over the top when beaten by Binocular, Punjabi 3rd last season and looks to have improved, Celestial Halo Triumph Hurdle winner and fancied by connections to turn the tables on Binocluar, three previous winners of the race in Katchit Sublimity and Brave Inca, wonder horse Harchibald, who could beat anything on his day, Jered and Muirhead both very good novices either of which could pull of a mini surprise, Blue Bajan and sentry Duty top class handicappers who shouldn't win but try telling Rooster Booster that

When you compare that lot to what was competing between Istabraq and Katchit this Champion Hurdle is in a different league IMO.

Which in short means that if Brave Inca or Sublimity win it's back to the drawing board for me.

[skydog]

Agreed Salmon Spray, it certainly looks the best CH for a long while,very open.

[jtw1]

I'm going to study the stats for the Festival all this week , as i'm off next week and therefore will be taking more interest in it than in previous season's .

First of all i'll point out that ALL of these and many other statistics for each race are available on ATR forum and every other Racing website so the first job is to clarify what are the strongest set to concentrate on.

CHAMPION HURDLE
----------------------

1- As with the majority of Championship races to be held at Cheltenham those horses with the best chance of winning the world's premier Hurdle race are normally found within the top 5/6 in the betting market .

As it stands right now the one's to concentrate on are -

BINOCULAR - 6/4F , CELESTIAL HALO - 10/1 , OSANA 10/1 ,

CRACK AWAY JACK 12/1 , KATCHIT 14/1 and SUBLIMITY 16/1 .

2- One stat that is impossible to ignore , not just for this meeting but ANY at Cheltenham , is previous course form and if that happens to be at the Festival meeting then all the better .
So here's the Course stats for the 6 -

BINOCULAR - 2nd in one run , Supreme Novice
CELESTIAL HALO - 1st in one run , Triumph
OSANA - 4th , unp in the County Hur , 2nd , 1st , 2nd in last season's Champion Hur .
CRACK AWAY JACK - 1st in the Fred Winter Juv Hur .
KATCHIT - 1st , 1st , 1st , 1st [Triumph] , 2nd , 1st [ Champion Hur]
SUBLIMITY - 4th [Supreme Nov ] , 1st [Champion Hur] , 4th , 4th [Champion Hur]

16 of the last 20 winners of the CHAMPION were course winners and 14 of the last 17 had been placed 1st or 2nd at previous Festival's .

That statistic doesn't help us much as all 6 have previous form at the meeting .

3- AGE - Up until last year the poor 5y-old stat was brought up by many of Katchit's doubters' [myself inc ] as he was the first to win since SEE YOU THEN .
This year will see that stat put to a stronger teast as BINOCULAR , CELESTIAL HALO and CRACK AWAY JACK are all of that vintage .

SUBLIMITY is now a 9y-old and they have a similarly poor record to the younger generation - 1 win from 13 runners in the past 10 runnings .

Since the 11y-old SEA PIGEON won his 2nd Champion Hurdle there have been 2 winners aged 9 , 1 aged 5 and the remaining 23 won by either a
6 , 7 or 8 y-old .

KATCHIT and OSANA are the only 2 within the preferred range .

4- Possibly the most important statistic to consider is the fact that 22 of the past 25 winners ALL WON LAST TIME OUT .
I have looked back over thepast 15 and the 2 who had not won were placed 2nd and 3rd LTO so finishing in the the placings LTO would appear to be VITAL as far as the selection process is concerned .

That means that CRACK AWAY JACK , KATCHIT and SUBLIMITY'S chances are not as strong as the other 3 .

5- Previous winning form at Graded level is just as important with only one winner from the past 15 i've looked at having NOT won at Grade 1 , or 3.

This stat , along with age and LTO placing means that i can safely dis-count CRACK AWAY JACK'S chance in this years renewal as it has only won at Listed level over Hurdles.

SUBLIMITY may well run into a place this time but as he ages another year i feel one or two of the younger brigade may see him off .

There's no doubt that KATCHIT'S form this season has been disappointing and it's that which puts him just off the radar as far as a selection for this race is concerned .
His Course form is 2nd to none and if KING has managed to bring him on a good deal from what he'a shown this season then he could well do the double but i'm reluctantly passing him by as winning [placed form] LTO is vital .

So that leaves us with BINOCULAR , CELESTIAL HALO and OSANA .

It really is hard to fault the Favs form and he could be one that wins this 2 or 3 times with luck in running and training but he is only 5 and , although 2nd on his one and only course/festival run he has done most of his winning on flatter courses and 6/4 or under just doesn't appeal to me .

10/1 about CELESTIAL HALO , even being a 5yo , would be tempting if it weren't for the fact that he won last season's TRIUMPH Hurdle and it's been hard in past years for those that have won this to come out next season win the big one .

OSANA finished 2nd behind CELESTIAL on it's seasonal debut at Sandown back on JAN 30th and i can see the tables being reversed for that outing .
Last season's 2nd place was a great run and with another year under his belt [ now a 7y-o ] i think that the 10/1 on offer is a very good E.W bet
It passes every criteria as far as i'm concerned , although a win LTO would have been preferable i'll settle for the close 2nd place .

Therefore unless there's a drastic change in the betting for whatever reason i'm assuming that these 6 will be the first 6 in the betting and the selction is OSANA @ 10/1 Each-way.

I will take a look at the race again on Monday evening and if there's any change i'll post my though

[Thommo]

Now 9/2 Will Hill are offering about Binocular and Kasbah Bliss double.

That will do me, I cannot see anything touching Binocular after looking at the race again, and also reading McCoys comments on the horse.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

I'm going to study the stats for the Festival all this week , as i'm off next week and therefore will be taking more interest in it than in previous season's . First of all i'll point out that ALL of these and many other statistics for each race are available on ATR forum and every other Racing website so the first job is to clarify what are the strongest set to concentrate on. CHAMPION HURDLE ---------------------- 1- As with the majority of Championship races to be held at Cheltenham those horses with the best chance of winning the world's premier Hurdle race are normally found within the top 5/6 in the betting market . As it stands right now the one's to concentrate on are - BINOCULAR - 6/4F , CELESTIAL HALO - 10/1 , OSANA 10/1 , CRACK AWAY JACK 12/1 , KATCHIT 14/1 and SUBLIMITY 16/1 . 2- One stat that is impossible to ignore , not just for this meeting but ANY at Cheltenham , is previous course form and if that happens to be at the Festival meeting then all the better . So here's the Course stats for the 6 - BINOCULAR - 2nd in one run , Supreme Novice CELESTIAL HALO - 1st in one run , Triumph OSANA - 4th , unp in the County Hur , 2nd , 1st , 2nd in last season's Champion Hur . CRACK AWAY JACK - 1st in the Fred Winter Juv Hur . KATCHIT - 1st , 1st , 1st , 1st [Triumph] , 2nd , 1st [ Champion Hur] SUBLIMITY - 4th [Supreme Nov ] , 1st [Champion Hur] , 4th , 4th [Champion Hur] 16 of the last 20 winners of the CHAMPION were course winners and 14 of the last 17 had been placed 1st or 2nd at previous Festival's . That statistic doesn't help us much as all 6 have previous form at the meeting . 3- AGE - Up until last year the poor 5y-old stat was brought up by many of Katchit's doubters' [myself inc ] as he was the first to win since SEE YOU THEN . This year will see that stat put to a stronger teast as BINOCULAR , CELESTIAL HALO and CRACK AWAY JACK are all of that vintage . SUBLIMITY is now a 9y-old and they have a similarly poor record to the younger generation - 1 win from 13 runners in the past 10 runnings . Since the 11y-old SEA PIGEON won his 2nd Champion Hurdle there have been 2 winners aged 9 , 1 aged 5 and the remaining 23 won by either a 6 , 7 or 8 y-old . KATCHIT and OSANA are the only 2 within the preferred range . 4- Possibly the most important statistic to consider is the fact that 22 of the past 25 winners ALL WON LAST TIME OUT . I have looked back over thepast 15 and the 2 who had not won were placed 2nd and 3rd LTO so finishing in the the placings LTO would appear to be VITAL as far as the selection process is concerned . That means that CRACK AWAY JACK , KATCHIT and SUBLIMITY'S chances are not as strong as the other 3 . 5- Previous winning form at Graded level is just as important with only one winner from the past 15 i've looked at having NOT won at Grade 1 , or 3. This stat , along with age and LTO placing means that i can safely dis-count CRACK AWAY JACK'S chance in this years renewal as it has only won at Listed level over Hurdles. SUBLIMITY may well run into a place this time but as he ages another year i feel one or two of the younger brigade may see him off . There's no doubt that KATCHIT'S form this season has been disappointing and it's that which puts him just off the radar as far as a selection for this race is concerned . His Course form is 2nd to none and if KING has managed to bring him on a good deal from what he'a shown this season then he could well do the double but i'm reluctantly passing him by as winning [placed form] LTO is vital . So that leaves us with BINOCULAR , CELESTIAL HALO and OSANA . It really is hard to fault the Favs form and he could be one that wins this 2 or 3 times with luck in running and training but he is only 5 and , although 2nd on his one and only course/festival run he has done most of his winning on flatter courses and 6/4 or under just doesn't appeal to me . 10/1 about CELESTIAL HALO , even being a 5yo , would be tempting if it weren't for the fact that he won last season's TRIUMPH Hurdle and it's been hard in past years for those that have won this to come out next season win the big one . OSANA finished 2nd behind CELESTIAL on it's seasonal debut at Sandown back on JAN 30th and i can see the tables being reversed for that outing . Last season's 2nd place was a great run and with another year under his belt [ now a 7y-o ] i think that the 10/1 on offer is a very good E.W bet It passes every criteria as far as i'm concerned , although a win LTO would have been preferable i'll settle for the close 2nd place . Therefore unless there's a drastic change in the betting for whatever reason i'm assuming that these 6 will be the first 6 in the betting and the selction is OSANA @ 10/1 Each-way. I will take a look at the race again on Monday evening and if there's any change i'll post my though

Sticking with the main selection of OSANA but this has been a good race in the past for rheining champions to keep their crown and with KATCHIT'S course from 2nd to none i'm taking a bit of the EW on offer .

BINOCULAR could potentially be the next ISTABRAQ but ,as i've said elsewhere the fact that there are 23 willing to take him on and the potential traffic problems that could cause the short odds available do not appeal .