Tuesday - Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase

[The Duke]

Thoughts to follow...

[The Duke]

Quote:

Report: Muselburgh, Sunday John Smith's Extra Smooth Novices' Chase 2m 4f KALAHARI KING put in a professional performance ahead of his Arkle bid when beating Howard Johnson-trained Astarador in an entertaining finish at Musselburgh on Sunday. Totesport trimmed the Ferdy Murphy-trained eight-year-old into 7-1 from 9-1 for the Cheltenham Festival. Denis O’Regan made the running on Astarador and Graham Lee introduced the 4-5 favourite with four fences to jump. It was four from home that Palomar fell, leaving the two leaders clear of the field. At three out O'Regan was hard at work on his mount but the 100-30 shot stuck to his task. The pair jumped the penultimate fence as one but Kalahari King put in a better leap at the last and eased into a two-length win. Murphy said: "The key is that the ground needs to dry up if he is to go to Cheltenham. "There are plenty of other alternatives such as Aintree, Ayr and Punchestown. "He has won over two and a half miles but he is a genuine two-mile horse. "On lively ground, he can play at the top table."

I think he has a very live chance at winning the race and his trainer appears to think so too.

[Montyspass1]

Hello all. Happy New Year - what a crap one it has been so far! Cant believe this is my first post of 09' :-

I agree; I actually think it was a very smart ride from Lee. Effectively it looked like quite a hard race to win, when in truth I think it was a very easy win... hopefully this will keep the price temptingly high. This was actually one of my considerations for the festival. Fingers crossed with regards to the ground etc.

[tommy knight]

calgary bay for me. the best jumper i have seen in novice chases this year. the faster they go the less he will pull. tatenen should set it up for him. he'll probably fall now i've picked him

[talkingspeedway]

If the ground's on the soft side, which it almost certainly will be, and he's afforded any sort of lead, Tatenen will walk this. I originally backed I'msingingtheblues, and am glad he's been confirmed as an intended runner (he still just edges Tatenen as my most potentially profitable interest), but I think he might struggle to contain his stablemate.

[skydog]

Although Palomar fell in KK's race I think he will be more at home over the Arkle trip & he won't mind what the ground is like. There was a lot to like about is 2 wins before his fall at Musselburgh (first time he'd ever fallen) & although N Richards doesn't have a great record at Cheltenham he will, if he turns up, have been well schooled after his mishap.

[Thommo]

I still fancy ForPadyDePlasterer. Seems like he needs to produced very late as he idles in front, can see him coming at Tatenen up the hill to win it.

[The Duke]

Can't have Forpady at all Thommo, I just dont think he's either quick enough or good enough. Although in recent times horses dropping back in distance over Fences from Hurdles have faired well (My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay) being two worthy of mention.

Here's something I found and posted last year which wouldn't have got you the winner as Tidal Bay was 7yo at time of victory but Kruguyrova fitted the trend and ran into a place.

Age

• A fairly recent statistic that proves very profitable is to back any five year olds each way, the useful weight allowance received in a race where perfect jumping is a must seems to have a greater advantage over the general greater experience of the older runners in this Festival race.

Recent Form and Experience

• Only back a horse that comes into the race with either a win or 2nd place last time out, the only exception to this was a F on the form and that was a fall of a horse that was almost certain to win! Previous Cheltenham form isn't such a strong stat as you might imagine but classy hurdling form is a strong plus.

Market Position

• Not a strong race for favourites though you should be looking for a horse in the top 3 or 4 in the betting and the best value comes from backing the fourth favourite over the last 10 years.

Trainers

• Pipe, Nicholls and Henderson have great win and place strike rates in the race.

Other Positives

• French bred horses have a good record in the last 15 years.

PERFECTION: Go for a French bred 5 year old trained by one of the leading English trainers, who is around 4th in the betting who has good recent form and was top class over hurdles.

This year it has to be Kalahari King for me who fits very nicely into the above criteria.

[talkingspeedway]

I don't think Palomar was ever really put into the race, skydog, despite his lack of fluency in jumping, and he could be a potential improver. He's always struck me as a 'thinker' though, and I don't know that a race like the Arkle is going to suit.

[Salmon Spray]

Palomar was a huge disappointment to the yard last season in the Tote Trophy. They even spoke about him as a possible Champion Hurdle horse. Nicky Richards said he wasn't going to get carried away again and give the horse plenty time. It ismost likely he will miss the Arkle and possibly go to Aintree.

I can't have Tatenen and don't consider him as any better a chaser than he was a hurdler.

Kalahari King bounced back from a loss of form last season and ran a big race in the Supreme. Ferdy Murphy has been saying he will win the Arkle every day since then up until 2 weeks ago when he said he'll win if the ground suits or he will miss it and go to Aintree. Probably just mumbling to save getting egg all over his face )He gives me the impression he will only win if he is still on the bridle late in the race. If it comes to a fight I can't imagine him finding too much.

Calgary Bay is an awesome looking chaser. Many people thought he would start favourite when turned over last time out. There wasn't a penny to be seen for him. Could that mean he was just a bit short of peak fitness? Not unusual for a trainer to leave a bit to work on so close to Cheltenham. He loves Cheltenham and will jump all over Tatenham without breaking sweat IMO but he may just lack enough speed over this trip to win it.

Phillip Hobbs has given Planet of Sound the perfect preperation. A quite run behind Free World first time out then two races he won as he liked.

I have backed Calgary Bay at 40/1 and Kalahari King 25/1 so I am hoping I am wrong when I say we haven't seen the best of this horse.

He won over 2m2f last time out so the trip won't be a problem. He normally jumps well and can stay up with the pace and has a strong finish. Calgary Bay Tatenem and Kalahari King have chinks in their armour but this horse looks good from every angle.

Now the race is just round the corner I would go for 1. Planet of Sound 2. Calgary Bay

[jtw1]

Tues - ARKLE TROPHY

1- Similar to the CHAMPION Hurdle the top end of the market usually has the winner in it's ranks although the FAVS have a poor record with only 2 winning from the past 17.
18/18 have been returned at 11/1 or under [ 17 at single figures ]

Taking Ladbrokes odds that gives us 6 to consider -

TATANEN - 9/2f , CALGARY BAY - 5/1 ,

IMSINGINGTHEBLUES 8/1 ,

KALAHARI KING - 10/1 , PLANETOF SOUND - 10/1 ,

FORPADYDEPLASTERER - 10/1.


2- Ceratinly the strongest statistic in the race is that 16/18 had won or been 2nd LTO [ 20/20 had won ,or been placed , in ALL chase races they had completed]

PLANET OF SOUND has a record over Jumps of 4,1,1 . The other 5 have all fit the win/place stat.
PLANET OF SOUND also has never won above Cl 3 grade while 10/12 winners had won at Grade 3 or above over Hurdles or Chase's

3- AGE , with 16/18 previous winners being aged 5-7 , anything older can be dropped from the equation .
Four 5y-olds have won in the past 4 times from the past 10 runnings but since last season they no longer receive a weight allowance .
KALAHARI KING is an 8y-old and also only has an Official rating of 142 and ,again , 16/18 winners were rated 150+.

From the remaining 4 it would appear that FORPADYDEPLASTERER's chances would increase with Soft/Heavy going as thats the kind of surface he has won his 4 races on.

The same could be said of TATANEN but it has won on G/S .

CALGARY BAY has won it's 2 career wins on this course on Good + G/S going.

5 of IMSINGINGTHEBLUES 6 wins have all been on GOOD while the other was on G/S.

SUMMARY - KALAHARI KING + PLANET OF SOUND are discarded while the fortune of the other 4 may be reliant on the going so i'll delay making a decision until the day .
Also the poor record of the market leader is something that has considered and that stat will not emerge till the day

[FMH]

A tough race to get right, but stats wise I'd have to go for Tatenen. Probably won't have a bet.

[FMH]

Had another look at this and Calgary Bay and I'msingingtheblues also make my shorlist.

[The Duke]

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is run at Cheltenham racecourse as part of the Festival In March, it is a novice race for five year olds and above.

The race distance is two miles with twelve fences to be jumped on the old course.
This race will probably be one of the toughest the contenders have run, and for many it will be the first time they have attempted the four and a half foot fences in a race.

When looking to back a horse here it can be quite a daunting task, mainly due to the lack of experience these novices have, obviously the odds will suggest which is a popular bet and which is not but it can turn into a guessing game.
Perhaps instead look at the trainer records, Alan King and the Pipe stables have dominated this race in recent years so look carefully at any contenders from their stables.

Also horses with some chasing experience that shows their ability to jump at speed, this race will test the horses’ capabilities to the full and only the very best will prevail here and go on to become top class chasers.

Key Arkle Trends
* 20 of the last 21 winners finished 1st or 2nd on all completed chase starts
* French bred horses have won 7 of the last 14 renewals
* Just one winner has started at over 10/1 in the last decade
* Only one horse over the age of seven has won since 1990


Bringbackthebiff
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Beaten behind some fair sorts over three miles two runs ago, he recorded a win over 18 furlongs last time out on heavy ground. The form of the race doesn’t have an overly strong look to it, and Willie Mullins who saddles Golden Silver in this race has a line through this via Captain Conflict who was a close second to the Edward O’Grady trained gelding.

Calgary Bay
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The Henrietta Knight trained gelding has some solid form in the book and has looked a chaser with a future on starts to date. He started off a good second to I’msingingtheblues over two miles at Doncaster before winning over 21 furlongs at Cheltenham staying on strongly to beat Kicks For Free and Tartak in a good quality contest – the form of that looks particularly strong in the context of this race. Then an outing to Ascot when second to Panjo Bere over 17 furlongs, he got outpaced at the business end of the race and was done for speed on the run to the line. Cheltenham will be more suitable for this lovely chasing type; however I can’t help but feel he’s in a similar mould to Racing Demon who found two and a half miles his best trip.

Cheating Chance
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: A once well regarded individual when trained by Nicky Richards, he made the switch to Andrew Turnell after a string of disappointing efforts and has since thrived. He collected a handicap chase and a novice chase at Ascot before being soundly put in place the last twice, most recently when behind Planet Of Sound who re-opposes here.

Cornas
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An improving sort from the Nick Williams stable who run his best race to date when a fast finishing second to Gauvain at Sandown. The line came just in time for the Charlie Mann trained individual but I feel Cornas can reverse form here with the Cheltenham hill working in his favour. He certainly is a big price for this race and is worthy of respect, although he’ll probably find one or two just too good for him on the day.

Follow The Plan
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: An Irish invader from the Oliver McKiernan stable who lowered the colours of favourite Tatenen when giving the Paul Nicholls inmate 11lbs and a beating in the Grade Two novices event at Leopardstown two runs ago. He failed to reproduce that form on heavy ground last time when soundly beaten behind Golden Silver but the forecasted better ground should suit this horse in the Arkle. He is off level terms with Tatenen who in theory he should hand out another beating to, and John Cullen the jockey of Follow The Plan has aired his confidence in doing so in a Cheltenham Preview evening.

Forpadydeplasterer
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse who I really think is seriously overrated from the Thomas Cooper stable, and has always shaped like a staying chaser in my eyes, just not particularly a top class one as expected. A good friend of mine who is respected as a judge thinks the Arkle is his race and strongly fancies him for it. It just cements how easy it can be to form different opinions about the same horse, but one of us will be wrong, hopefully it isn’t me!

Gauvain
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Charlie Mann’s gelding landed the odds last time at Sandown when fending off the late burst from Cornas. He made his debut in a chase at Lingfield when winning with consummate ease before falling when going extremely well at Fontwell. The form of his latest effort when winning looks decent but I just feel he lacks the requisite class to get involved in the business end here, and Cornas will be better suited to Cheltenham.

Golden Silver
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Willie Mullins gelding won effortlessly in a standard chase at Navan before improving rapidly to take the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown latest when fighting off Forpadydeplasterer in heavy ground. Paul Townend looks set to take the ride once again and should be thereabouts but once again I can see one or two being too strong for the Willie Mullins gelding.

I’m So Lucky
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has picked up a couple of small prizes along the way and a fair second placed effort behind Planet Of Sound back in December, however other horses around him are improving and I just wonder if this horse can continue to improve on what he’s already shown. My guess is his hand is already shown and will finish midfield.

I’msingingtheblues
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Holds good chase form to date having being only of only two to lower the colours of Calgary Bay over fences thus far, and has shown a likeable attitude to fight back when under pressure in his races. Has good course form and has good form over the distance. The son of Pistolet Bleu has shown on many occasions to have a high cruising speed and that could prove vital in a fast paced race such as this and could make the frame at a large price under Christian Williams.

Kalahari King
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held in very high regard by Ferdy Murphy, a trainer who has a knack of getting his horses to peak at The Festival. This horse did well in the Supreme Novices Hurdle when fourth behind Captain Cee Bee and has shown an excellent turn of foot and alacrity in his jumping abilities. This horse has been trained to peak in this race and I really fancy this one with ground conditions to suit.

Made In Taipan
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a good level of form over fences to date and returned to winning ways in good style last time out after a defeat at the hands of the Willie Mullins trained Jayo. That was on soft ground and with the forecast rain apparent ahead of the first day of the Festival; the sticky ground could well not be to the liking of Made In Taipan despite him winning on heavy last time.

Original
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An absolutely massive horse that showed improved form on that he’s shown in France when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton when last seen. Is expected to continue that improvement but I wonder if he’ll be good enough to mix it with the big guns, especially if the rain gets into the turf. I think he’s a horse that needs good racing ground.

Panjo Bere
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Did the business at Ascot when lowering the colours of Calgary Bay but came unstuck last time out at Sandown. I think Panjo Bere is a horse that prefers a flat track and thus will come unstuck once again at Cheltenham. He’s a decent horse don’t get me wrong, but I think he’ll struggle in this.

Planet Of Sound
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a liking from the larger obstacles and has always been held in high regard by the Phillip Hobbs team. His latest effort when putting to bed some useful rivals in French Opera and Song Of Songs, the latter who has won twice since looks solid form. The ground won’t really be a problem to this son of Kayf Tara and I can see him getting involved at the finish and will be thereabouts.

Tartak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Trainer Tom George has his string firing on all cylinders at the moment and it couldn’t come with better timing heading into The Festival. Tartak has shown good form over fences and the drop back in trip should suit this French bred gelding, as will any ease in the ground conditions.

Tatenen
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Seriously well regarded by the Nicholls camp and create a big impression when destroying a fair field over C&D on chasing debut. However he came unstuck at Leopardstown when second to Follow The Plan when in receipt of 11lbs from the latter. He doesn’t get the allowance anymore here and has to face more battle hardened rivals off level weights. That said Ruby Walsh has kept faith and the money has continued to come in recent days and has to be a major player in this given his impressive show here two runs ago.

Verdict: In what looks an open and poor renewal for this race it should pay to side with KALAHARI KING each-way. The Ferdy Murphy trained gelding has been trained with this race in mind and has been kept fresh ahead of this assignment. He is quick and nimble over his fences and possesses a devastating turn of foot when needed and looks the value in the race. Of the remainder Tatenen is the obvious choice, along with Planet Of Sound but it would be unwise to count out Cornas who could run a race at a big price of around

1pt each-way Kalahari King @ 10-1 with Paddy Power
0.25pt each-way Cornas @ 33-1 with Paddy Power

[Thommo]

Good review mate.

I don't overly fancy anything in this but expect Forpadydeplasterer to run a big race. Geraghty says this horse has a big race in him and I think this could be it. Fast run race will suit and with the ground on the soft side, conditions are in his favour. Can't remember the last time he run a bad race and he should be in contention at the final fence.

Forpadydeplasterer EW at 12/1

[broadsword]

Agree with your assesment pretty much Jay but isn't the ground going to be a bit on the soft side for Kalahari? I've been praying for a decent surface as most of my strong fancies and antepost bets on the first 2 days require it.Have backed Tatenen at 6's on a couple of multiples antepost and I don't suppose the ground will bother him much but if it does dry out a bit might have an ew cover on Kalahari.

[The Fox]

Originally Posted by The Duke

Calgary Bay 6-y-o Gelding Notes: The Henrietta Knight trained gelding has some solid form in the book and has looked a chaser with a future on starts to date. He started off a good second to I’msingingtheblues over two miles at Doncaster before winning over 21 furlongs at Cheltenham staying on strongly to beat Kicks For Free and Tartak in a good quality contest – the form of that looks particularly strong in the context of this race. Then an outing to Ascot when second to Panjo Bere over 17 furlongs, he got outpaced at the business end of the race and was done for speed on the run to the line. Cheltenham will be more suitable for this lovely chasing type; however I can’t help but feel he’s in a similar mould to Racing Demon who found two and a half miles his best trip.

Agree 2 and a half is probably his best trip, but this race has a decent record for horses that stay further. Track will suit like you say, im expecting a bold run.
Will be having a little of my hard-earned.

[talkingspeedway]

I've been laying Calgary Bay for the last week, and will continue laying him until the market closes.

The racing media were absolutely raving about his defeat of Kicks For Free at Cheltenham, some publications/websites going so far as to describe the performance as 'seriously impressive'. But what race were they watching? Calgary Bay didn't win easily despite travelling and jumping well, was being caught again toward the line, had to be hard driven by Tony McCoy (of all people) and beat an absolute nutcase who has since run absimally.

Throw in the fact that he was beaten by Panjo Bere (held in some regard by Gary Moore, but yet to achieve anything of note) at Ascot and probably wants further, and I have to wonder why he is the price he is. If he were trained by anyone other than Henrietta Knight, and she hadn't described him as 'the next Best Mate', his odds would be four times what they are now.

Having said that I still think Tatenen has a massive chance, though wouldn't consider backing him at 3/1 (or thereabouts). Fortunately I've had him in my ante-post book for quite some time and am getting tired of hearing 'he only beat Straw Bear'. Admittedly Straw Bear doesn't provide the strongest form line, but Tatenen didn't just beat him, he destroyed him - and in a very good time given the conditions.

Given a lead, he doesn't lose this race.

[The Duke]

A fair and reasonable assessment there Tom, it is almost Tatenen's race to lose as you say, but I'm hopeful of a bold run from Kalahari King and Cornas.

I too have layed Calgary Bay and I'm not one usually to lay one at the festival. The last time I did was Denman in the RSA Hurdle for alot of money, and even then I feel I got a little lucky. Good luck!

[Thommo]

Calgary Bay is a lay for me aswell.

[Thommo]

Upto 20mm of rain predicted for Chelt overnight, I think the ground is going to be soft for the opening day. Couldn't fancy Kalahari King at all now.

[talkingspeedway]

Predictions have varied from 6-20mm of rain overnight, so I wouldn't be getting too nervous yet (aside from the fact that I wouldn't back Kalahari King with stolen money anyway). Besides, they have also forecast winds of up to 40mph which should have some effect on how well the course dries (Cheltenham is also, perhaps, the best draining course in the country).

[The Duke]

Hm...

I've yet to back Kalahari King as there's not much point in backing now as I don't really get any 'edge' out of doing so. The money will all be for Tatenen tomorrow and probably a couple of other market headers, thus the price drifting outwards on Kalahari.

I had heard he's been trained to the minute for this race so they obviously expect a good run and from what I've seen to date I think he'll go well. That said the forecasted rain does worry me slightly - might have a small interest on Cornas each-way and just watch the race as a spectacle as opposed to a betting race.

Will see how things pan out overnight before making a decision.

[kidoncricketer]

i beleive the plasterer isnt a 2m4 horse, and is possibly a 2m2f animal.


for that reason, chelenham 2 miles in softish conditions is absolutely perfect.


he has the form in the bank already. so looks an absolute moral ew

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Tues - ARKLE TROPHY 1- Similar to the CHAMPION Hurdle the top end of the market usually has the winner in it's ranks although the FAVS have a poor record with only 2 winning from the past 17. 18/18 have been returned at 11/1 or under [ 17 at single figures ] Taking Ladbrokes odds that gives us 6 to consider - TATANEN - 9/2f , CALGARY BAY - 5/1 , IMSINGINGTHEBLUES 8/1 , KALAHARI KING - 10/1 , PLANETOF SOUND - 10/1 , FORPADYDEPLASTERER - 10/1. 2- Ceratinly the strongest statistic in the race is that 16/18 had won or been 2nd LTO [ 20/20 had won ,or been placed , in ALL chase races they had completed] PLANET OF SOUND has a record over Jumps of 4,1,1 . The other 5 have all fit the win/place stat. PLANET OF SOUND also has never won above Cl 3 grade while 10/12 winners had won at Grade 3 or above over Hurdles or Chase's 3- AGE , with 16/18 previous winners being aged 5-7 , anything older can be dropped from the equation . Four 5y-olds have won in the past 4 times from the past 10 runnings but since last season they no longer receive a weight allowance . KALAHARI KING is an 8y-old and also only has an Official rating of 142 and ,again , 16/18 winners were rated 150+. From the remaining 4 it would appear that FORPADYDEPLASTERER's chances would increase with Soft/Heavy going as thats the kind of surface he has won his 4 races on. The same could be said of TATANEN but it has won on G/S . CALGARY BAY has won it's 2 career wins on this course on Good + G/S going. 5 of IMSINGINGTHEBLUES 6 wins have all been on GOOD while the other was on G/S. SUMMARY - KALAHARI KING + PLANET OF SOUND are discarded while the fortune of the other 4 may be reliant on the going so i'll delay making a decision until the day . Also the poor record of the market leader is something that has considered and that stat will not emerge till the day

Ok here we go , with only 2mm of rain overnight it looks like the ground will be on the soft side of good which will not help IMSINGINGTHEBLUES which has , as stated previously won 5 /6 on GOOD going but the most obvious stat it has against it is that Ruby Walsh has chosen to take the ride on TATANEN.

CALGARY BAY has the potential to onto better things but i think it will need further than a potentially fast run 2m that todays race will be.
Here's what Henrietta Knight said after winning here in a 2m5f Chase on New Years Day -

01Jan09 Cheltenham (21GS ,RPR152)
I still think a lot of him, but he is such a young horse, still very inexperienced and raw-framed. He has now won twice at Cheltenham, so I hope to bring him back in March, but I'm not very keen to go three miles in the RSA Chase, they would do him for toe in the Arkle and it would be no good going for a handicap after that - Henrietta Knight, trainer;

So the main selection is the probable Fav TATANEN with an ew on FORPADYDEPLASTERER.

Walsh has chosen to ride TATANEN , it has won over C/D , no problem with the gound and fits all the stats .
Taking a chance that it will only be the 3rd Fav to win in 18 runnings .

FORPADYDEPLASTERER would have liked a little more rain imo but it's 4th at last years Festival over hurdles on G/S and it's fitting of the other stats makes me think it could give TATANEN a fight if both survive to the last .