Tuesday - David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race - OHR - Betting Forums

Old 20-01-09, 07:48 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Tuesday - David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race

Thoughts to follow...
 
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Old 05-03-09, 02:42 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Quevega
Whiteoak
Chomba Womba
 
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Old 05-03-09, 03:30 PM   #3 (permalink)
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The David Nicholson Hurdle named after the former great trainer himself, is a new race on the Festival calendar and was established last year. Last year’s winner and first winner of the race Whiteoak returns to do battle for trainer Donald McCain son of former National hero Ginger in the Mares showpiece.There has been talk of Whiteoak going for the Champion Hurdle but being honest connections would be wise to keep her to her own sex as she holds every chance of winning this after a massive comeback run in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton when a solid second to Ashkazar of David Pipes when in receipt of 3lbs from the winner. That form would see her struggle to make the frame in the big one, so if I were connections of Whiteoak, I’d keep her to this race.

There are a select bunch of horses I can see running well in this, and I’ll try to go through each one of my shortlist and weed out the potential winner of the race.

Whiteoak
6-y-o bay mare
Oscar (IRE) (15.2f) — Gayla Orchestra (Lord Gayle (USA) (10.6f))
Notes: Winner of the race last year, Donald McCain’s mare returns to do battle again. She has a high cruising speed and a top drawer change of gear, which should see her trade short for the in-running players. She doesn’t seem to find much when hitting the front though, so might be worth laying off your stake money if she does. Her comeback run in the Kingwell was an excellent one, and in this type of race, is a major player.

United
8-y-o bay mare
Desert King (IRE) (10.2f) — Una Kasala (GER) (Law Society (USA) (11.5f))
Notes: Lucy Wadhams’ admirable racemare has come back well from an injury winning a hot handicap off a mark of 142, before putting to bed a fair field in the Warfield Mares Hurdle (Grade 2) at Ascot in January. Will be heading straight to the Festival, and the mare holds solid claims after her comeback runs, and bear in mind she was a World Hurdle fourth behind Inglis Drever back in March 2007, which this year’s favourite Kasbah Bliss in-behind her. She has form of 211 in Mares Only hurdles, and looks another major player for this prize. Her form at the distance of 2m4f also reads 111 – and has to hold major each-way claims with 5-1 currently available.

Quevega
5-y-o bay mare
Robin Des Champs (FR) — Vega IV (FR) (Cap Martin (FR))
Notes: Willie Mullins mare holds solid form over hurdles, and has been well backed in recent weeks. The mare came fourth over at Auteuil in a race where the form is very strong. Two lengths behind Hurricane Fly (third) the former has since gone on to win the Royal Bond (Grade 1) Hurdle, and then obliterated the field in the Future Champion Novice (Grade 1) Hurdle by 10 lengths. She has been kept lightly raced since and made a pleasing comeback when a ready winner of a conditions hurdle beating some smart sorts by four lengths. Her form is top class in the book, and connections obviously fancy their chances at lifting this prize. At this moment in time, I’d say she’s my idea of the winner.


Chomba Womba
8-y-o bay mare
Fourstars Allstar (USA) (11.9f) — Miss Muppet (IRE) (Supreme Leader (12.4f))
Notes: The favourite for the race last year, Chomba Womba returns to launch another assault on the race from Team Henderson. The mare was slightly unlucky in that she was hampered by the fall of Midnight Legend last year and was crossed by the eventual Whiteoak, but after taking the measure of Gaspara rounding the bend for home, she was unable to re-rally when Whiteoak took her measure, and thus making me think this is slightly above her limit of stamina. Yes she won the Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) this year over the distance, but Ascot is a much quicker track to Cheltenham, and she beat a non-certain stayer in Crack Away Jack, I think she’ll travel well into the turn for home before coming unstuck shortly before the last again.


Both Give It Time and Megans Joy hold solid claims, and the latter is worthy of looking over for a potential each-way interest at the available 20-1 with Paddy Power.

Verdict: In what looks an excellent race this year, it could pay to side with the unexposed and well regarded QUEVEGA for Willie Mullins. His mare has been kept fresh since her excellent fourth to Grivette at Auteuil and her comeback run suggests she’s retained all ability after a layoff. She will be in tip-top shape for the race and has ground in her favour. Of the remainder United interests me as an each-way bet to nothing at 5-1, as does Megans Joy at a slightly bigger price of 20-1.

1pt Win – Quevega @ 3-1 with PaddyPower
 
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Old 05-03-09, 03:43 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quevega would be my first choice James lad. She's been the subject of some very good reports and looks the one to beat.

It looks as though Whiteoak is going for the Champion Hurdle. She's trading at 43 on Betfair for this race, with only 3 bookies bothering to price her up (3/1) and is now as low as 20/1 (23 on exchanges) for the CH. I'd have given her an excellent chance of winning the Mares Hurdle again, but connections must think she's improved massively to go for the CH, I'd still only give her a small e/w chance in that race against the likes of Osana and Binocular. It definitely makes her an interesting runner though.
 
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Old 05-03-09, 04:06 PM   #5 (permalink)
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If she runs in it again, WHITEOAK for me, would make Chomba Womba a big lay aswell.
 
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Old 06-03-09, 05:13 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Whiteoak goes for the Champion now so forget her. Caroles Legacy as some good form but is probably not experienced enough & Geraghty as gone for Chomba Womba but I'm not sure if thats an owner thing or not. My idea of the winner is Over Sixty of Alan Kings, whom I'm sure would love to win this race named after his mentor. She ran well when 2nd behind Golan Way here in November,staying on, & although she as filled the same position the last twice she could have been overlooked here. Her defeat behind Caroles Legacy when trying to concede 6lb looks good as the winner as since won again. Her defeat NTO,IMO, should be ignored as I don't think she gave her true running. Taunton may well not have suited too. Ground shouldn't be an issue.
 
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Old 10-03-09, 04:48 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Ooooooooiiiiiiiiiiii Oooooooooooiiiiiiiiiii Ooooooooooooiiiiiiiii!!!!!!!!!
 
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Old 10-03-09, 04:57 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Bang! Machine that thing!
 
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Old 10-03-09, 05:04 PM   #9 (permalink)
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1ST day is always my day,



quevega was a huge turning point for me,


got a line on with the arkle winner, quevega, dont push it, and amiceli in the foxhunters !!!!!!


what a buzz, and what a cheltenham so far...............
 
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