Thursday - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - OHR

**The Duke** · **20-01-09**, **07:44 PM**

Thoughts to follow...

**The Duke** · **13-02-09**, **09:24 PM**

The World Hurdle is regarded as the feature race of Day 3 of the Festival. Some top quality horses have won this race in years gone by and non more so than Inglis Drever who sadly wont be in the line-up bidding to win a fourth World Hurdle, I don’t think it’ll be quite the same without the gallant stayer thundering up the hill to the roars of many but we can only look forward to another and its down to something else to reign supreme over the distance.

I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 14 years.

Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in. This year I have singled the race down to the following participants;

Kasbah Bliss
Punchestowns
Fair Along
Big Buck’s

The horses above are the four I think will be fighting it out at the business end of the race, and I’m now going to expand on what my choice will be and why, but first it’s time to go through the form of the horses shortlisted.

Kasbah Bliss
7-y-o gelding
Kahyasi (12.8f) — Marital Bliss (FR) (Double Bed (FR) (13.6f))
Notes: Most notably a gallant performance here last year behind Inglis Drever and some would argue he should really have won with a better jockey on board. The Kahyasi gelding has done nothing but improve over the summer and after hacking up in a handicap, he then won the Prix Gladiateur (G3) at Longchamp clocking a rating of (96) in the process before a fantastic effort when fourth beaten little over a length in the Prix Du Cadran (G1). Rested since Francois Doumen has hinted his gelding has added more muscle to his small but powerhouse frame and has grown into his shape a lot more, he believes he’s the finished article this time round, and there’s no Inglis Drever around to stop him.

Punchestowns
6-y-o gelding
Morespeed — History (FR) (Alesso (USA))
Notes: A well regarded individual from the Seven Barrows team who came to England with a lofty reputation and did the business at Sandown first time up over hurdles. Punchestowns was rumoured to be going chasing this year and his first run of the season was a pipe-opener for his intended career over larger obstacles, however he decided to hose in off 139 in what looked a competitive race on paper, not contempt with that he proceeded to destroy decent opposition en-route to an 11-length success in the Long Walk Hurdle (G1) at Ascot. Heavy ground can be blamed for his defeat to Big Buck’s last time, as can the pull of 8lbs Big Buck’s was getting from Nicky Henderson’s likeable chestnut. Punchestowns looks set to play a major role in the World Hurdle and with the ground likely to be better than the Heavy he contested the Cleeve Hurdle in, he can reverse form with Big Buck’s but whether he’ll be good enough to defeat Kasbah Bliss remains a mystery.

Fair Along
7-y-o gelding
Alkalde (GER) (11.0f) — Fairy Tango (FR) (Acatenango (GER) (11.0f))
Notes: A gallant and sound inmate from the Phillip Hobbs yard, Fair Along is the sort of horse you’d love to have as an owner, a small horse with a massive heart. Fair Along has won over 16f and he’s won over 25f (2M and 3M1F for those not clear on the furlong per mile ratio). A winner of top decent handicap prizes at the course he put a sterling effort in to finish third behind both Punchestowns and Big Buck’s when last seen in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The heavy ground quite possibly didn’t do him any favours that day and he held every chance turning for home. When headed he battled on bravely to hold third and there’s a chance he could be better suited to better ground come the Festival. His Cheltenham form reads: 132302113 and is very much a course specialist. He holds every chance of making the frame in the World Hurdle and is worth close consideration.

Big Buck’s
6-y-o gelding
Cadoudal (FR) (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux (10.1f))
Notes: A French import and expensive purchase, Big Buck’s came over with a big reputation and a big future in the game. The workmanlike gelding has done well over fences for Paul Nicholls and arguably would have gone very close in the Hennessy Gold Cup but for falling when closing down. Big Buck’s did the business over hurdles next time and that run had to be a confidence boosting as his jumping is renowned to be a little chancy. Winning so well like he did Paul Nicholls gave his charge another chance over the smaller obstacles and made the most of an 8lb pull in the weights with Punchestowns to secure an impressive victory in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The son of Cadoudal also showed a liking for heavy ground and conditions couldn’t not be as favourable to him come Festival time and although he holds massive claims, he’d be one I wont back from the list above.

Verdict:
After going through the form and looking at the above I’m going to side with KASBAH BLISS who has the benefit of a break after three very pleasing efforts on the flat. A repeat of any of those last two efforts is good enough to see him win at Cheltenham and Francois Doumen is the master at producing his festival hopefuls to peak performance and he can follow in the footsteps of the legend Baracouda and secure another victory for France.

3pts win – Kasbah Bliss
Paddy Power are offering 5/2.

Article written by myself for Cheltenhamtips.co.uk

**Thommo** · **14-02-09**, **12:03 AM**

Good write up.

Kasbah Bliss is the nap of the meeting for me and if he wins later today like he should, I reckon he will be no more than a 6/4 shot on the day.

As much as I loved Inglis Drever, Kasbah Bliss really should have won the race last year. C Pieux is to keep the ride, which is a slight worry but I can see him hosing up hopefully he won't need to get into a driving finish with that crazy style he has.

**Thommo** · **16-02-09**, **09:38 AM**

Kasbah Bliss now generally a 6/4 shot like I predicted above.

He was mighty impressive on Saturday, has to be the banker of the meeting. Doumen says he could be better than Baracouda. I really do believe over the next few years, we could witness the greatest staying hurdler of all time, yes, its a big comment but I cannot see anything touching this horse.

**The Duke** · **16-02-09**, **11:09 AM**

I was very impressed. Haven't seen that turn of foot on a staying hurdler before, he could be very special if kept sound.

**Salmon Spray** · **20-02-09**, **04:52 AM**

I think his turn of foot was slightly exagerated by the fact he was running away from a tree :0)

Class horses have a great record in this and Kasbah Bliss has class. I just have my doubts about whether he has enough of it.

I'm going for Punchestowns here. After he won almost everyone said he was the one for this. Pure class was the cry!!!

Nicky Henderson ran him a bit short of work IMO and he will be a totally different horse come World Hurdle day.

Future champion in my book and a great bet at his current odds

**The Duke** · **20-02-09**, **09:14 AM**

Originally Posted by Salmon Spray

Class horses have a great record in this and Kasbah Bliss has class. I just have my doubts about whether he has enough of it.

So a second to Inglis Drever when ridden by a puppet isn't classed as good enough to win this? I think he has an abudance of class, and like Kauto Star I was informed of Punchestowns before he hit a racecourse in England, he is rated VERY highly. However I take joy in seeing them being turned over at short odds, now that I'm unable to invest due to value being all but gone and I'm very pleased with my 11/4 purchase of Kasbah Bliss, I think he's a shoe in.

**talkingspeedway** · **20-02-09**, **12:26 PM**

Fortunately some of us took the 6/1 about Kasbah Bliss following his improved flat form

I don't doubt that Nicky Henderson left a little to work on with Punchestowns at Cheltenham, and the turnaround in the weights with Big Buck's will certainly see him competitive, but Kasbah Bliss has absolutely everything in his favour. He travels well, jumps quickly, stays, has stacks of class and has a (relatively) monsterous turn of foot.

If the ground is good, he wins in a canter. If the ground is soft, Punchestowns won't stay anyway.

**Salmon Spray** · **02-03-09**, **11:19 PM**

Originally Posted by The Duke

So a second to Inglis Drever when ridden by a puppet isn't classed as good enough to win this? I think he has an abudance of class, and like Kauto Star I was informed of Punchestowns before he hit a racecourse in England, he is rated VERY highly. However I take joy in seeing them being turned over at short odds, now that I'm unable to invest due to value being all but gone and I'm very pleased with my 11/4 purchase of Kasbah Bliss, I think he's a shoe in.

A 2nd to Inglis Drever and a 2nd to Inglis Drever are not always the same thing. I have doubts on whether the horse was as good in 2008 as he was in 2007 and the 3rd horse Kazal is nothing to write home about. Inglis Drever was well beaten at Aintree afterwards which did the form no good at all.

My worry with Kasbah Blisss is he was hack cantering going to the last in that race. Once he hit the hill he wandered all over the joint. He could of course go to the last again with nothing near him but if it comes down to a fight up the hill I wouldn't fancy him to see it through.

I think it's a much more open race than the betting suggests.

**Macca™** · **02-03-09**, **11:52 PM**

I haven't followed racing properly for around two years now, but saw Kasbah Bliss LTO and it looked a machine, has to win.

**Thommo** · **03-03-09**, **06:49 AM**

Some of your comments are becoming a bit hilarious Salmon man...

He hasn't got enough class???

This is a horse who finished in front of Yeats in the Cadran on the flat, just last October!

**The Duke** · **03-03-09**, **08:03 PM**

Originally Posted by Salmon Spray

A 2nd to Inglis Drever and a 2nd to Inglis Drever are not always the same thing. I have doubts on whether the horse was as good in 2008 as he was in 2007 and the 3rd horse Kazal is nothing to write home about. Inglis Drever was well beaten at Aintree afterwards which did the form no good at all.

You cant compare Inglis Drever at Cheltenham and then Aintree. He's a totally different animal, he detested Aintree and was beaten on a few occasions, notably by Al Eile.

He was a horse who was lazy, and got outpaced and under strong urgings would run on again when stamina came into play and had the famous hill to run at. A horse with no turn of foot whatsoever is something you can't win with at Aintree (National aside of course).

**talkingspeedway** · **05-03-09**, **09:36 PM**

Inglis Drever won at Aintree as a novice but even Stevie Wonder could see that, over time, he developed a severe disliking to the place. Whatever the reason (places like Haydock and Newbury never seemed to bother him), he was a significantly better horse away from the Liverpool venue and nowhere was that more true than at Cheltenham.

Festival form behind Inglis Drever is as solid as it comes and I can't see how Kasbah Bliss can lose this year's race. On last season's performance alone he has to be favourite, but his improved efforts on the flat and a devastating victory last time out have him some way clear of both Punchestowns and Big Buck's for me.

Nicky Henderson is terrified of Kasbah Bliss, and with good reason.

**FMH** · **06-03-09**, **07:48 PM**

Kasbah Bliss for me, can't see past it at the moment. Will probably pick something to back e/w on the day.

**jtw1** · **11-03-09**, **08:10 PM**

Unfortunately Thursday see's a poor day as far as stats are concerned as we have 4 Handicaps , don't do them , and the RyanAir chase which has only been run 4 times .

That leaves the WORLD HURDLE of which the most striking is the fact that, including 2004 all the win/placings have concerned the top 5 in the betting.

Add in 15/18 had won that season , 16/18 were rated over 160 and 21/21 finished in the first 4 last time out .

The winner will come from KASBAH BLISS , BIG BUCKS , FAIR ALONG or PUNCHESTOWNS.

KASBAH BLISS is around the 5/4 mark which is a bit short for me and although 2nd in this last season he has still to win at Cheltenham after 4 runs there.

BIG BUCKS won the Cleeve Hurdle here ,beating PUNCHESTOWNS and FAIR ALONG in the process last time out but that was on Heavy going ; winning time was run 54 secs slower than average .

Nicky Henderson revealed after that race that PUNCHESTOWNS was not fully wound up and he did not expect him to handle the ground.
FAIR ALONG would also not have enjoyed the going that day and he has a great record at the course with no fewer than 11 plcings [ inc 4 wins] from 12 runs and the odd race was when he ran 3 days in the County hurdle after finishing 2nd in the ARKLE .

PUNCHESTOWNS is taken to gain another Festival win for the Henderson stable.

I will be having a PLACE BET on FAIR ALONG as he may take 3rd from BIG BUCKS and his record at the meeting/course is spot-on.

**FMH** · **11-03-09**, **08:29 PM**

Interesting stat about the rating jtw, I didn't spot that one about being rated over 160. I'm pretty sure that either Kasbah Bliss or Punchestowns will win, but I'm not confident enough to back Punchestowns win only at 7/2 and cant back Kasbah Bliss at evens, especially when I think it's beatable. Hence I'm delving into the e/w market and looking for a bit of value. The stat about the first 4 in the betting always filling the places is quite strong, but I'd already crossed out Fair Along due to a few negatives so I'm hoping my selection can break the trend and scrape 3rd place.
Heres my opinion on the race............

3:20
Kasbah Bliss is the supposed good thing here and it's very hard to find anything that's against him. Saying that, I won't be touching him at that price. Nicky Henderson has publicly said that he doesn't think Punchestowns will beat it but I wouldn't take anything from that.

The others that made my shortlist were Mobaasher, Punchestowns and Tazbar.

Mobaasher fits all the criteria but I dont like the fact he's wearing blinkers, a tongue stap and has Christian Williams on board so I'm fairly keen to oppose him. He looks a fair price at 33's though and could go well but can't see him winning although a top 5 finish doesn't look out of the question.

Punchestowns has obvious claims but a beating by Big Bucks doesn't bode well, although Barry (takes it up the gary) Geraghty said the horse wasn't right and advised punters not to take anything from that run. Big Bucks was also getting 8lbs from him that day so I'd still put Punchestowns ahead of him, especially if Barry was right.

My bet however will be Tazbar trained by Keith Reveley. A massive outsider but he fits the stats criteria perfectly and I just think 40/1 is far too big. I'm not saying I think he'll win, or even has the ability to win, but was beaten 10 lengths to Big Bucks when carrying 1lb more and also has some good form behind United which has a line to Inglis Drever. If he runs well on the day and can stay up that hill I reckon he might sneak into the places. It looks as though he's been targeted for this race and could be one of those 'where did that come from' horses.

**Montyspass1** · **12-03-09**, **02:30 PM**

My bet however will be Tazbar trained by Keith Reveley. A massive outsider but he fits the stats criteria perfectly and I just think 40/1 is far too big. I'm not saying I think he'll win, or even has the ability to win, but was beaten 10 lengths to Big Bucks when carrying 1lb more and also has some good form behind United which has a line to Inglis Drever. If he runs well on the day and can stay up that hill I reckon he might sneak into the places. It looks as though he's been targeted for this race and could be one of those 'where did that come from' horses.[/QUOTE]

Agreed; I have had a small wager on each way for Tazbar and Mighty Man. I decided to have Mighty Man as I was Mightily impressed with Well Chief's bounce back after 700ish days off, I am hopeful of the same sort of thing with MM...

**The Duke** · **12-03-09**, **08:51 PM**

Thoughts?

I think the horse was given an 'odd' ride by Cristophe Pieux, ridden alot closer to the pace and was sent up to challenge 8-9 wide over a mile from home, I don't understand that. This is a horse that does best coming with a swooping last run to claims his rivals, and he did that last year behind Inglis Drever.

He didn't show any turn of foot at all, and I think Pieux run the guts out of him too early, a dismal effort from both horse & jockey as far as I'm concerned.

Well done Big Bucks backers!

**Thommo** · **12-03-09**, **11:43 PM**

I agree mate.

What the hell he was playing at I will never know. I honestly knew our luck was out as soon he went 8 or 9 wide (as you say) 1 mile from home and was pushing for 4th or 5th place.... it was bizarre...

A false world hurdle and I although I had Big Bucks as one of mine to follow, I think its a case of a handicapper winning a supposed championship race.

And Doumen says Kasbah is better than Baracouda. On bits and pieces of form, I do agree, but lets face it, Baracouda would have walked all over that field today and Kasbah ran as if something simply was not right, simple as that.

**talkingspeedway** · **13-03-09**, **12:42 AM**

Kasbah Bliss didn't perform, it's as simple as that - attributing his loss to the jockey is harsh, in my opinion (and this coming from someone who regularly lambasted Jacques Ricou for his generally appalling handling of Jair Du Cochet).

I think it's dangerous to underestimate the winner who, despite his flaws, has always been held in the very highest regard by Paul Nicholls. The Ditcheat man has an inate ability to identify top class horses after only one or two (meaningful) outings in France - he labelled Neptune Collonges a Gold Cup winner some three years ago, a prediction I hope will come to fruition this afternoon - and Big Buck's has received favourable mention since his arrival at the yard.

Given the performance of Big Buck's and Punchestowns, I can't wait for next year's novice chases. The aforementioned pair will be facing off against the likes of Pride Of Dulcote (another adored by his trainer), Mikael D'Haguenet, Diamond Harry and Pandorama, so we could very well be heading for another 'golden era' in horseracing. Throw in Aran Concerto, Cooldine and the impending arrival of the monsterous Dunguib (he will prove to be something quite special) over fences, and you have to wonder if life could be any better.

Back to the World Hurdle. I hope Francois Doumen will see fit to take Kasbah Bliss to Aintree, a track which should suit the horse down to the ground. Quite what went wrong yesterday is anybody's guess, but he's certainly far better than he showed (perhaps having only one run before the Festival was a mistake).

20-01-09, 07:44 PM	#1 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Thursday - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Thoughts to follow...

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13-02-09, 09:24 PM	#2 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	The World Hurdle is regarded as the feature race of Day 3 of the Festival. Some top quality horses have won this race in years gone by and non more so than Inglis Drever who sadly wont be in the line-up bidding to win a fourth World Hurdle, I don’t think it’ll be quite the same without the gallant stayer thundering up the hill to the roars of many but we can only look forward to another and its down to something else to reign supreme over the distance. I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are: No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle. An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 14 years. Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form. At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in. This year I have singled the race down to the following participants; Kasbah Bliss Punchestowns Fair Along Big Buck’s The horses above are the four I think will be fighting it out at the business end of the race, and I’m now going to expand on what my choice will be and why, but first it’s time to go through the form of the horses shortlisted. Kasbah Bliss 7-y-o gelding Kahyasi (12.8f) — Marital Bliss (FR) (Double Bed (FR) (13.6f)) Notes: Most notably a gallant performance here last year behind Inglis Drever and some would argue he should really have won with a better jockey on board. The Kahyasi gelding has done nothing but improve over the summer and after hacking up in a handicap, he then won the Prix Gladiateur (G3) at Longchamp clocking a rating of (96) in the process before a fantastic effort when fourth beaten little over a length in the Prix Du Cadran (G1). Rested since Francois Doumen has hinted his gelding has added more muscle to his small but powerhouse frame and has grown into his shape a lot more, he believes he’s the finished article this time round, and there’s no Inglis Drever around to stop him. Punchestowns 6-y-o gelding Morespeed — History (FR) (Alesso (USA)) Notes: A well regarded individual from the Seven Barrows team who came to England with a lofty reputation and did the business at Sandown first time up over hurdles. Punchestowns was rumoured to be going chasing this year and his first run of the season was a pipe-opener for his intended career over larger obstacles, however he decided to hose in off 139 in what looked a competitive race on paper, not contempt with that he proceeded to destroy decent opposition en-route to an 11-length success in the Long Walk Hurdle (G1) at Ascot. Heavy ground can be blamed for his defeat to Big Buck’s last time, as can the pull of 8lbs Big Buck’s was getting from Nicky Henderson’s likeable chestnut. Punchestowns looks set to play a major role in the World Hurdle and with the ground likely to be better than the Heavy he contested the Cleeve Hurdle in, he can reverse form with Big Buck’s but whether he’ll be good enough to defeat Kasbah Bliss remains a mystery. Fair Along 7-y-o gelding Alkalde (GER) (11.0f) — Fairy Tango (FR) (Acatenango (GER) (11.0f)) Notes: A gallant and sound inmate from the Phillip Hobbs yard, Fair Along is the sort of horse you’d love to have as an owner, a small horse with a massive heart. Fair Along has won over 16f and he’s won over 25f (2M and 3M1F for those not clear on the furlong per mile ratio). A winner of top decent handicap prizes at the course he put a sterling effort in to finish third behind both Punchestowns and Big Buck’s when last seen in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The heavy ground quite possibly didn’t do him any favours that day and he held every chance turning for home. When headed he battled on bravely to hold third and there’s a chance he could be better suited to better ground come the Festival. His Cheltenham form reads: 132302113 and is very much a course specialist. He holds every chance of making the frame in the World Hurdle and is worth close consideration. Big Buck’s 6-y-o gelding Cadoudal (FR) (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux (10.1f)) Notes: A French import and expensive purchase, Big Buck’s came over with a big reputation and a big future in the game. The workmanlike gelding has done well over fences for Paul Nicholls and arguably would have gone very close in the Hennessy Gold Cup but for falling when closing down. Big Buck’s did the business over hurdles next time and that run had to be a confidence boosting as his jumping is renowned to be a little chancy. Winning so well like he did Paul Nicholls gave his charge another chance over the smaller obstacles and made the most of an 8lb pull in the weights with Punchestowns to secure an impressive victory in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The son of Cadoudal also showed a liking for heavy ground and conditions couldn’t not be as favourable to him come Festival time and although he holds massive claims, he’d be one I wont back from the list above. Verdict: After going through the form and looking at the above I’m going to side with KASBAH BLISS who has the benefit of a break after three very pleasing efforts on the flat. A repeat of any of those last two efforts is good enough to see him win at Cheltenham and Francois Doumen is the master at producing his festival hopefuls to peak performance and he can follow in the footsteps of the legend Baracouda and secure another victory for France. 3pts win – Kasbah Bliss Paddy Power are offering 5/2. Article written by myself for Cheltenhamtips.co.uk

14-02-09, 12:03 AM	#3 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Good write up. Kasbah Bliss is the nap of the meeting for me and if he wins later today like he should, I reckon he will be no more than a 6/4 shot on the day. As much as I loved Inglis Drever, Kasbah Bliss really should have won the race last year. C Pieux is to keep the ride, which is a slight worry but I can see him hosing up hopefully he won't need to get into a driving finish with that crazy style he has.

16-02-09, 09:38 AM	#4 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Kasbah Bliss now generally a 6/4 shot like I predicted above. He was mighty impressive on Saturday, has to be the banker of the meeting. Doumen says he could be better than Baracouda. I really do believe over the next few years, we could witness the greatest staying hurdler of all time, yes, its a big comment but I cannot see anything touching this horse.

16-02-09, 11:09 AM	#5 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	I was very impressed. Haven't seen that turn of foot on a staying hurdler before, he could be very special if kept sound.

20-02-09, 04:52 AM	#6 (permalink)
Salmon Spray Selling Plater Join Date: Jan 2009	I think his turn of foot was slightly exagerated by the fact he was running away from a tree :0) Class horses have a great record in this and Kasbah Bliss has class. I just have my doubts about whether he has enough of it. I'm going for Punchestowns here. After he won almost everyone said he was the one for this. Pure class was the cry!!! Nicky Henderson ran him a bit short of work IMO and he will be a totally different horse come World Hurdle day. Future champion in my book and a great bet at his current odds

20-02-09, 12:26 PM	#8 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	Fortunately some of us took the 6/1 about Kasbah Bliss following his improved flat form I don't doubt that Nicky Henderson left a little to work on with Punchestowns at Cheltenham, and the turnaround in the weights with Big Buck's will certainly see him competitive, but Kasbah Bliss has absolutely everything in his favour. He travels well, jumps quickly, stays, has stacks of class and has a (relatively) monsterous turn of foot. If the ground is good, he wins in a canter. If the ground is soft, Punchestowns won't stay anyway.

02-03-09, 11:52 PM	#10 (permalink)
Macca™ World Class Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Liverpool	I haven't followed racing properly for around two years now, but saw Kasbah Bliss LTO and it looked a machine, has to win.

03-03-09, 06:49 AM	#11 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Some of your comments are becoming a bit hilarious Salmon man... He hasn't got enough class??? This is a horse who finished in front of Yeats in the Cadran on the flat, just last October!

05-03-09, 09:36 PM	#13 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	Inglis Drever won at Aintree as a novice but even Stevie Wonder could see that, over time, he developed a severe disliking to the place. Whatever the reason (places like Haydock and Newbury never seemed to bother him), he was a significantly better horse away from the Liverpool venue and nowhere was that more true than at Cheltenham. Festival form behind Inglis Drever is as solid as it comes and I can't see how Kasbah Bliss can lose this year's race. On last season's performance alone he has to be favourite, but his improved efforts on the flat and a devastating victory last time out have him some way clear of both Punchestowns and Big Buck's for me. Nicky Henderson is terrified of Kasbah Bliss, and with good reason.

06-03-09, 07:48 PM	#14 (permalink)
FMH Back From The Dead Join Date: Sep 2006	Kasbah Bliss for me, can't see past it at the moment. Will probably pick something to back e/w on the day.

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11-03-09, 08:10 PM	#15 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	Unfortunately Thursday see's a poor day as far as stats are concerned as we have 4 Handicaps , don't do them , and the RyanAir chase which has only been run 4 times . That leaves the WORLD HURDLE of which the most striking is the fact that, including 2004 all the win/placings have concerned the top 5 in the betting. Add in 15/18 had won that season , 16/18 were rated over 160 and 21/21 finished in the first 4 last time out . The winner will come from KASBAH BLISS , BIG BUCKS , FAIR ALONG or PUNCHESTOWNS. KASBAH BLISS is around the 5/4 mark which is a bit short for me and although 2nd in this last season he has still to win at Cheltenham after 4 runs there. BIG BUCKS won the Cleeve Hurdle here ,beating PUNCHESTOWNS and FAIR ALONG in the process last time out but that was on Heavy going ; winning time was run 54 secs slower than average . Nicky Henderson revealed after that race that PUNCHESTOWNS was not fully wound up and he did not expect him to handle the ground. FAIR ALONG would also not have enjoyed the going that day and he has a great record at the course with no fewer than 11 plcings [ inc 4 wins] from 12 runs and the odd race was when he ran 3 days in the County hurdle after finishing 2nd in the ARKLE . PUNCHESTOWNS is taken to gain another Festival win for the Henderson stable. I will be having a PLACE BET on FAIR ALONG as he may take 3rd from BIG BUCKS and his record at the meeting/course is spot-on.

11-03-09, 08:29 PM	#16 (permalink)
FMH Back From The Dead Join Date: Sep 2006	Interesting stat about the rating jtw, I didn't spot that one about being rated over 160. I'm pretty sure that either Kasbah Bliss or Punchestowns will win, but I'm not confident enough to back Punchestowns win only at 7/2 and cant back Kasbah Bliss at evens, especially when I think it's beatable. Hence I'm delving into the e/w market and looking for a bit of value. The stat about the first 4 in the betting always filling the places is quite strong, but I'd already crossed out Fair Along due to a few negatives so I'm hoping my selection can break the trend and scrape 3rd place. Heres my opinion on the race............ 3:20 Kasbah Bliss is the supposed good thing here and it's very hard to find anything that's against him. Saying that, I won't be touching him at that price. Nicky Henderson has publicly said that he doesn't think Punchestowns will beat it but I wouldn't take anything from that. The others that made my shortlist were Mobaasher, Punchestowns and Tazbar. Mobaasher fits all the criteria but I dont like the fact he's wearing blinkers, a tongue stap and has Christian Williams on board so I'm fairly keen to oppose him. He looks a fair price at 33's though and could go well but can't see him winning although a top 5 finish doesn't look out of the question. Punchestowns has obvious claims but a beating by Big Bucks doesn't bode well, although Barry (takes it up the gary) Geraghty said the horse wasn't right and advised punters not to take anything from that run. Big Bucks was also getting 8lbs from him that day so I'd still put Punchestowns ahead of him, especially if Barry was right. My bet however will be Tazbar trained by Keith Reveley. A massive outsider but he fits the stats criteria perfectly and I just think 40/1 is far too big. I'm not saying I think he'll win, or even has the ability to win, but was beaten 10 lengths to Big Bucks when carrying 1lb more and also has some good form behind United which has a line to Inglis Drever. If he runs well on the day and can stay up that hill I reckon he might sneak into the places. It looks as though he's been targeted for this race and could be one of those 'where did that come from' horses.

12-03-09, 02:30 PM	#17 (permalink)
Montyspass1 Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: London	My bet however will be Tazbar trained by Keith Reveley. A massive outsider but he fits the stats criteria perfectly and I just think 40/1 is far too big. I'm not saying I think he'll win, or even has the ability to win, but was beaten 10 lengths to Big Bucks when carrying 1lb more and also has some good form behind United which has a line to Inglis Drever. If he runs well on the day and can stay up that hill I reckon he might sneak into the places. It looks as though he's been targeted for this race and could be one of those 'where did that come from' horses.[/QUOTE] Agreed; I have had a small wager on each way for Tazbar and Mighty Man. I decided to have Mighty Man as I was Mightily impressed with Well Chief's bounce back after 700ish days off, I am hopeful of the same sort of thing with MM...

12-03-09, 08:51 PM	#18 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Thoughts? I think the horse was given an 'odd' ride by Cristophe Pieux, ridden alot closer to the pace and was sent up to challenge 8-9 wide over a mile from home, I don't understand that. This is a horse that does best coming with a swooping last run to claims his rivals, and he did that last year behind Inglis Drever. He didn't show any turn of foot at all, and I think Pieux run the guts out of him too early, a dismal effort from both horse & jockey as far as I'm concerned. Well done Big Bucks backers!

12-03-09, 11:43 PM	#19 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	I agree mate. What the hell he was playing at I will never know. I honestly knew our luck was out as soon he went 8 or 9 wide (as you say) 1 mile from home and was pushing for 4th or 5th place.... it was bizarre... A false world hurdle and I although I had Big Bucks as one of mine to follow, I think its a case of a handicapper winning a supposed championship race. And Doumen says Kasbah is better than Baracouda. On bits and pieces of form, I do agree, but lets face it, Baracouda would have walked all over that field today and Kasbah ran as if something simply was not right, simple as that.

13-03-09, 12:42 AM	#20 (permalink)
talkingspeedway Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: West Midlands	Kasbah Bliss didn't perform, it's as simple as that - attributing his loss to the jockey is harsh, in my opinion (and this coming from someone who regularly lambasted Jacques Ricou for his generally appalling handling of Jair Du Cochet). I think it's dangerous to underestimate the winner who, despite his flaws, has always been held in the very highest regard by Paul Nicholls. The Ditcheat man has an inate ability to identify top class horses after only one or two (meaningful) outings in France - he labelled Neptune Collonges a Gold Cup winner some three years ago, a prediction I hope will come to fruition this afternoon - and Big Buck's has received favourable mention since his arrival at the yard. Given the performance of Big Buck's and Punchestowns, I can't wait for next year's novice chases. The aforementioned pair will be facing off against the likes of Pride Of Dulcote (another adored by his trainer), Mikael D'Haguenet, Diamond Harry and Pandorama, so we could very well be heading for another 'golden era' in horseracing. Throw in Aran Concerto, Cooldine and the impending arrival of the monsterous Dunguib (he will prove to be something quite special) over fences, and you have to wonder if life could be any better. Back to the World Hurdle. I hope Francois Doumen will see fit to take Kasbah Bliss to Aintree, a track which should suit the horse down to the ground. Quite what went wrong yesterday is anybody's guess, but he's certainly far better than he showed (perhaps having only one run before the Festival was a mistake).