Season Starts Here! - OHR

andthereoff · **21-03-10**, **08:41 PM**

Curragh 21st March 10

Think we have to split the sprint from the round course today, also be careful with Big Robert's time who carried 8-0 to victory and it may be worth taking him out of the round corse to get a more realistic handle on Pollen who carried 9-10

Sprint: -6.76

81.77 High Award (9-3)
80.84 Blue Dahlia (8-4)
96.21 Zorija Rose (9-2)

Round: -9.91

98.22 Pollen (9-10)
89.50 Duchess Of Foxtland (8-7)
79.34 Reiteration (9-5)
102.62 Big Robert (8-0)

**Norton** · **21-03-10**, **09:32 PM**

Zorija Rose (mare) won a both-sex 4yo+ handicap - when attributing the class pars, would you include the 0.6 fillies allowance?

As I understand the conditions of the race, there is no allowance for the fairer sex, so do you just rate it 'as is' - and without the fillies allowance?

Cheers chaps

**Spook** · **21-03-10**, **09:55 PM**

I'd rate it as is in a handicap, as the arbitrating factor is the weight. In a conditions a filly would get a weight concession anyway, so any adjustment is already built in. It's up to you though. The most important thing to do is make a decision and then stick to it. It doesn't necessarily matter what figure you end up with, just so long as they're consistent as the objective is to generate a hierarchy with some understanding of how much superior one horse is to another. So long as you use the same methods, you should generate the same sort of rank order, give or take a few quirks. Ideally you want to try and replicate as much as you can to what you think is going on, but ultimately consistency and accuracy of judgement are more important.

I'm going to tweak the way I calculate variance this year for instance (something I kind of hit on last year) but changing formula half way through a season is a reciepe for disaster unless you're prepared to back-calculate and adjust a whole gamut of figures.

andthereoff · **21-03-10**, **10:32 PM**

Originally Posted by Norton

Zorija Rose (mare) won a both-sex 4yo+ handicap - when attributing the class pars, would you include the 0.6 fillies allowance?

As I understand the conditions of the race, there is no allowance for the fairer sex, so do you just rate it 'as is' - and without the fillies allowance?

Cheers chaps

Can't really top what Spook said but the way I like to do it is unless the race is specifically for fillies then I wouldn't add the 0.6 allowance.

andthereoff · **21-03-10**, **10:37 PM**

Originally Posted by Spook

I'm going to tweak the way I calculate variance this year for instance (something I kind of hit on last year) but changing formula half way through a season is a reciepe for disaster unless you're prepared to back-calculate and adjust a whole gamut of figures.

Are the ratings not giving you what they used to? I think its a very risky strategy to start messing around with a proven formula and I know it can get boring going back into the same old spreadsheet with the same old layout but are you sure its not a case of trying to get an extra angle?

This is something you have gone on about using the median? I wouldnt knock your judgement but you're leaving it late with the flat inches around the corner given your commitments to university it could be a case of starting with plenty of zest but fizzling out.

Good luck Spook, let everyone know the results!

**Spook** · **21-03-10**, **11:06 PM**

They're fine, I just think there's a bit of scope for improving them.

If there is one area I think we ought to make an effort on this season, then it's French racing. I'm sure there's opportunity here somewhere, and look at how many Frenchies raid successfully at big prices, and how many English get overbet by patriotic punters. I know I've sourced plenty of French horses before and reckon they were lucrative in 2009. I might just keep a separate book for them this year. I could be wrong of course, but I'm under the impression that the French pattern is starting to evolve along the lines of the Cheltenham festival (early days) but as the Arc meeting gets richer and bigger there's a chance that this is going to emerge as their flagship focus in the coming decade (possibly Europe's end of season showpiece) and start to detract a little bit from other meetings, with horses being trained to peak for early October.

The other thing I need to understand is why I lose every year at the July meeting, Glorious Goodwood, and invariably don't do to well at the Ebor festival either.

andthereoff · **21-03-10**, **11:33 PM**

Originally Posted by Spook

The other thing I need to understand is why I lose every year at the July meeting, Glorious Goodwood, and invariably don't do to well at the Ebor festival either.

I'm not sure were you're going wrong either but I don't think its wise to be taking a good speed figure into one of them big meetings but looking for something thats going to produce that on the day.

I know trainers have horses with different names but at the end of the day they are a horse and will invairably follow a succesful route of a previous stable star if deemed good enough and who to know better than the trainer himself. Maybe we could try gather a profile of previous winnners for a trainer, lets say the last 10 years and see if theres a strong pattern to follow.

Just a thought

**Norton** · **22-03-10**, **11:19 AM**

Thanks so far chaps. This is me just setting out, thought the start of a new flat season is a better time to start than midway through. Anyway, that's just the preamble to me warning I may have a few questions during the year

Regards the point made previously about Big Robert achieving his rating off 8st - how do you legislate for this? Is it a case of in your records you will have the rating he achieved, and that it was off 8st - next time out he races off 8-12 (to make the calculation easier), so do you then use the 'weight at distance' calculation - 2.4lbs per 1L - and surmise that this (eg.) 100 rating actually counts as a 95 rating for the future race.

Do you follow what I mean? lol, confusing myself with words here!

**The Duke** · **22-03-10**, **11:35 AM**

My ratings for Sunday 21st March @ Curragh.

Sprint (Variance): -7.06
84 - High Award
83 - Blue Dahlia
98 - Zorija Rose

Round (Variance): -9.86
95 - Pollen
102 - Big Robert
86 - Duchess Of Foxland
76 - Reiteration

I need to watch these races back to make any adjustments but these are just the raw unadjusted figures I've just created.

As for Big Robert, Norton - to rate him to 9st, you'd use the weight at distance chart in the document which for a mile would be 2.4L, and the difference between weight carried and the weight you want to rate him too.

The equation you would perform would read like this: 14 / 2.4 = 5.83 (minus that from your figure) and it'll give you the rating he carried to 9st which you would then find easier to rate from if you are going to include weight in your figures.

I made Big Robert 102, so 102 - 5.83 = 96.17, as I work in just a single figure, I'd rate him at 96 to 9st.

**Norton** · **22-03-10**, **11:48 AM**

I am, hopefully, seemingly on the right track at least. These are my figures, which don't seem a million miles away from andthereoff's and The Duke's

High Award 82.12
Blue Dahlia 81.24
Zorija Rose 96.59

Pollen 91.29
Big Robert 98.53
Duchess Of Foxland 82.82
Reiteration 72.41

I discounted the final race from the round course calculations as it was so out of keeping with the other 3, which explains why my ratings are harsher on the round course winners

**The Duke** · **23-03-10**, **07:00 PM**

Has anyone started to look towards Doncaster at the weekend yet?

**Hexham VIP** · **23-03-10**, **10:34 PM**

No not yet, i am trying to get on top of my speed ratings first, by the way why did no one time the 9.25 at Dundalk on Friday 26 February???

**Spook** · **24-03-10**, **08:38 PM**

Mull of Killough was the first to catch the eye, and with a bit of cut I've got a feeling that a straight mile might suit Tiger Reigns

andthereoff · **26-03-10**, **02:21 PM**

www.ohracing.net/TheLincoln.pdf

The Duke has kindly uploaded this for everyone, I have had some 16's about Huzzah with some 14's on Mias Boy who despite the weight should run a cracker.

Penitent may have worked with Group class animals at home but that means nothing on the racetrack as he's still an average handicapper, can not believe the price tbh

andthereoff · **29-03-10**, **06:51 PM**

I was just wondering now we have got a few of us doing the ratings if we could possibly take a distance each and record all the ratings into a table like the two year old thread - just press the PHP button to get it in that table.

I think Duke already specialises in sprints so we have got that area covered up, I dont mind what distance to take; Spook, Hexham, Norton what you fancy doing?

Duke - 5/6f
Me - 2yo
Spook - 12/16f
Hexham - 7/8f
Norton - 10f

What you think?

**Spook** · **29-03-10**, **09:18 PM**

Illogical doing it this way round.

In order to calculate a rating you have to do a whole card anyway, so you'd use the extra minute it takes to capture the lot by the time you've got that far. In any event, too many horses move between distances.

I'm going to try and make a conscious effort to focus on France this year myself

**The Duke** · **29-03-10**, **10:01 PM**

I too will be focusing more on France as there is definitely some money to be made and I'm looking towards an idea of creating my own standards for the tracks out there to try and get a more accurate set of readings.

**Norton** · **29-03-10**, **10:02 PM**

I'm, personally, not really expecting my ratings to bear any fruit this season, definitely not the first couple of months. I am literally just starting so have no historical ratings at all. My main aim for this season is to see how I go with my 2yr old ratings - as they're just starting out the same time as I am.

Will certainly be posting up in the section any potential good bets my ratings suggest though.

**Spook** · **30-03-10**, **12:13 AM**

Originally Posted by The Duke

I'm looking towards an idea of creating my own standards for the tracks out there to try and get a more accurate set of readings.

I'm convinced that's the key, as I'm sure the RP haven't updated there's for ages (although I did note they'd revised Rail Links GP de Paris the other day) which now means that the original document I produced doesn't correspond with what's now in the database. In any event, the frequency with which Longchamp standards are slaughtered still has me suspicious, as does the sheer violence in which variance and French going descriptions contradict each other. I can accept being a full going description wrong, but 2 or even 3 going descriptions isn't exactly unheard of over there.

If you can put together a set of French standards for the Parisian basin plus Deauville then you'll hold a distinct edge I reckon

**Spook** · **30-03-10**, **12:19 AM**

Originally Posted by Norton

I'm, personally, not really expecting my ratings to bear any fruit this season, definitely not the first couple of months. I am literally just starting so have no historical ratings at all. My main aim for this season is to see how I go with my 2yr old ratings - as they're just starting out the same time as I am.

You should be up and running within 3 -4 weeks. Note anything running 88+ this side of Ascot. A typical Royal Ascot 2yo winner runs between 88 and 91. Anything running 85-88 should see you in the black. Also look for improvement profiles (about 2.5 to 4 is progressive) but the jump from maiden into pattern class can see horses improving 10-15. Once in pattern class though, the schedule they're on becomes more predictable. You'll get the fast ones from about late June onwards and by July you should have half dozen in the low 90's. Anything hitting 95 plus 'ish' by the end of July or mid August is worth considering ante-post for next year. By September you should have a couple nudging 100 and these will be classic contenders provided they stay fit and all the usual caveats

**givemeabreak** · **30-03-10**, **07:08 AM**

Originally Posted by Norton

I'm, personally, not really expecting my ratings to bear any fruit this season, definitely not the first couple of months. I am literally just starting so have no historical ratings at all. My main aim for this season is to see how I go with my 2yr old ratings - as they're just starting out the same time as I am.

Same for me, this will be the first campaign of doing every meeting and actually making comparisons so i'm just hoping the first time i think A should beat B on the ground it does.

**The Duke** · **30-03-10**, **08:16 AM**

Originally Posted by Spook

If you can put together a set of French standards for the Parisian basin plus Deauville then you'll hold a distinct edge I reckon

Yeah these were the two tracks I was going to focus on mainly, with Chantilly and Maisons-Laffitte another couple I'd add in eventually.

**Norton** · **30-03-10**, **09:16 AM**

Just catching up after being away for the weekend, so doing the weekend Doncaster cards. I get the variance calculation for Saturday at -2.45, which doesn't seem to fit with the going description of Soft.

Have you guys got a similar figure, or am I way out of line?

**Spook** · **30-03-10**, **09:55 AM**

Sounds about right.

I made it -2.31 but then different people are using different tweaks of the system. Doncaster normally rides faster than the ground declared which I tend to think owes something to the fact that the standards haven't quite adjusted to the new layout (should have by now though) and that the new drainage has improved things. -2.45 would be consistant with G/S (a tad on the faster side).

-3.50 normally in the middle of soft. Good tends to finish at about -1.75, although I use -1.50 as being more indicative

**Norton** · **31-03-10**, **09:53 AM**

Thanks mate. I have another question - this could be a recurring theme!

Taking as an example the Roseberry on Saturday - the race is a 0-105 Handicap, but the top rated horse in the race was off 99. Would you class this as a 0-105 or a 0-100?

21-03-10, 08:41 PM	#1 (permalink)
andthereoff Banned. Join Date: Oct 2008	Season Starts Here! Curragh 21st March 10 Think we have to split the sprint from the round course today, also be careful with Big Robert's time who carried 8-0 to victory and it may be worth taking him out of the round corse to get a more realistic handle on Pollen who carried 9-10 Sprint: -6.76 81.77 High Award (9-3) 80.84 Blue Dahlia (8-4) 96.21 Zorija Rose (9-2) Round: -9.91 98.22 Pollen (9-10) 89.50 Duchess Of Foxtland (8-7) 79.34 Reiteration (9-5) 102.62 Big Robert (8-0)

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21-03-10, 09:32 PM	#2 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	Zorija Rose (mare) won a both-sex 4yo+ handicap - when attributing the class pars, would you include the 0.6 fillies allowance? As I understand the conditions of the race, there is no allowance for the fairer sex, so do you just rate it 'as is' - and without the fillies allowance? Cheers chaps

21-03-10, 09:55 PM	#3 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	I'd rate it as is in a handicap, as the arbitrating factor is the weight. In a conditions a filly would get a weight concession anyway, so any adjustment is already built in. It's up to you though. The most important thing to do is make a decision and then stick to it. It doesn't necessarily matter what figure you end up with, just so long as they're consistent as the objective is to generate a hierarchy with some understanding of how much superior one horse is to another. So long as you use the same methods, you should generate the same sort of rank order, give or take a few quirks. Ideally you want to try and replicate as much as you can to what you think is going on, but ultimately consistency and accuracy of judgement are more important. I'm going to tweak the way I calculate variance this year for instance (something I kind of hit on last year) but changing formula half way through a season is a reciepe for disaster unless you're prepared to back-calculate and adjust a whole gamut of figures.

21-03-10, 11:06 PM	#6 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	They're fine, I just think there's a bit of scope for improving them. If there is one area I think we ought to make an effort on this season, then it's French racing. I'm sure there's opportunity here somewhere, and look at how many Frenchies raid successfully at big prices, and how many English get overbet by patriotic punters. I know I've sourced plenty of French horses before and reckon they were lucrative in 2009. I might just keep a separate book for them this year. I could be wrong of course, but I'm under the impression that the French pattern is starting to evolve along the lines of the Cheltenham festival (early days) but as the Arc meeting gets richer and bigger there's a chance that this is going to emerge as their flagship focus in the coming decade (possibly Europe's end of season showpiece) and start to detract a little bit from other meetings, with horses being trained to peak for early October. The other thing I need to understand is why I lose every year at the July meeting, Glorious Goodwood, and invariably don't do to well at the Ebor festival either.

22-03-10, 11:19 AM	#8 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	Thanks so far chaps. This is me just setting out, thought the start of a new flat season is a better time to start than midway through. Anyway, that's just the preamble to me warning I may have a few questions during the year Regards the point made previously about Big Robert achieving his rating off 8st - how do you legislate for this? Is it a case of in your records you will have the rating he achieved, and that it was off 8st - next time out he races off 8-12 (to make the calculation easier), so do you then use the 'weight at distance' calculation - 2.4lbs per 1L - and surmise that this (eg.) 100 rating actually counts as a 95 rating for the future race. Do you follow what I mean? lol, confusing myself with words here!

22-03-10, 11:35 AM	#9 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	My ratings for Sunday 21st March @ Curragh. Sprint (Variance): -7.06 84 - High Award 83 - Blue Dahlia 98 - Zorija Rose Round (Variance): -9.86 95 - Pollen 102 - Big Robert 86 - Duchess Of Foxland 76 - Reiteration I need to watch these races back to make any adjustments but these are just the raw unadjusted figures I've just created. As for Big Robert, Norton - to rate him to 9st, you'd use the weight at distance chart in the document which for a mile would be 2.4L, and the difference between weight carried and the weight you want to rate him too. The equation you would perform would read like this: 14 / 2.4 = 5.83 (minus that from your figure) and it'll give you the rating he carried to 9st which you would then find easier to rate from if you are going to include weight in your figures. I made Big Robert 102, so 102 - 5.83 = 96.17, as I work in just a single figure, I'd rate him at 96 to 9st.

22-03-10, 11:48 AM	#10 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	I am, hopefully, seemingly on the right track at least. These are my figures, which don't seem a million miles away from andthereoff's and The Duke's High Award 82.12 Blue Dahlia 81.24 Zorija Rose 96.59 Pollen 91.29 Big Robert 98.53 Duchess Of Foxland 82.82 Reiteration 72.41 I discounted the final race from the round course calculations as it was so out of keeping with the other 3, which explains why my ratings are harsher on the round course winners

23-03-10, 07:00 PM	#11 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Has anyone started to look towards Doncaster at the weekend yet?

23-03-10, 10:34 PM	#12 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	No not yet, i am trying to get on top of my speed ratings first, by the way why did no one time the 9.25 at Dundalk on Friday 26 February???

24-03-10, 08:38 PM	#13 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Mull of Killough was the first to catch the eye, and with a bit of cut I've got a feeling that a straight mile might suit Tiger Reigns

26-03-10, 02:21 PM	#14 (permalink)
andthereoff Banned. Join Date: Oct 2008	www.ohracing.net/TheLincoln.pdf The Duke has kindly uploaded this for everyone, I have had some 16's about Huzzah with some 14's on Mias Boy who despite the weight should run a cracker. Penitent may have worked with Group class animals at home but that means nothing on the racetrack as he's still an average handicapper, can not believe the price tbh

29-03-10, 06:51 PM	#15 (permalink)
andthereoff Banned. Join Date: Oct 2008	I was just wondering now we have got a few of us doing the ratings if we could possibly take a distance each and record all the ratings into a table like the two year old thread - just press the PHP button to get it in that table. I think Duke already specialises in sprints so we have got that area covered up, I dont mind what distance to take; Spook, Hexham, Norton what you fancy doing? Duke - 5/6f Me - 2yo Spook - 12/16f Hexham - 7/8f Norton - 10f What you think?

29-03-10, 09:18 PM	#16 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Illogical doing it this way round. In order to calculate a rating you have to do a whole card anyway, so you'd use the extra minute it takes to capture the lot by the time you've got that far. In any event, too many horses move between distances. I'm going to try and make a conscious effort to focus on France this year myself

29-03-10, 10:01 PM	#17 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	I too will be focusing more on France as there is definitely some money to be made and I'm looking towards an idea of creating my own standards for the tracks out there to try and get a more accurate set of readings.

29-03-10, 10:02 PM	#18 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	I'm, personally, not really expecting my ratings to bear any fruit this season, definitely not the first couple of months. I am literally just starting so have no historical ratings at all. My main aim for this season is to see how I go with my 2yr old ratings - as they're just starting out the same time as I am. Will certainly be posting up in the section any potential good bets my ratings suggest though.

30-03-10, 09:16 AM	#23 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	Just catching up after being away for the weekend, so doing the weekend Doncaster cards. I get the variance calculation for Saturday at -2.45, which doesn't seem to fit with the going description of Soft. Have you guys got a similar figure, or am I way out of line?

30-03-10, 09:55 AM	#24 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Sounds about right. I made it -2.31 but then different people are using different tweaks of the system. Doncaster normally rides faster than the ground declared which I tend to think owes something to the fact that the standards haven't quite adjusted to the new layout (should have by now though) and that the new drainage has improved things. -2.45 would be consistant with G/S (a tad on the faster side). -3.50 normally in the middle of soft. Good tends to finish at about -1.75, although I use -1.50 as being more indicative

31-03-10, 09:53 AM	#25 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	Thanks mate. I have another question - this could be a recurring theme! Taking as an example the Roseberry on Saturday - the race is a 0-105 Handicap, but the top rated horse in the race was off 99. Would you class this as a 0-105 or a 0-100?

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