Race pace/bias

[jon a]

Subscribe to a site,does anyone use race pace figures? And how can these be put to use.Trialed at Southwell on 5-6 f where front runners are prominent and drop in trip.Struggling with NH and ideas

[Spook]

I'm trying to think who it was? Someone on here is an advocate pace bias aren't they? Is it Brigadier Gerrard? albeit the jumps season seems to have sent him into hibernation.

As regards their application to 2 mile novice hurdles it really depends on the sort of thing you have in mind. Can they be used? well almost certainly they can, in so far as anything can be 'used', the question should really revolve around how they can be used, and to answer this you'd need to be clear about just what they're telling you. Ultimately at the longer distances associated with jump racing it's going to pull you into the realms of 'pace collapse' but more than half the battle here is predicting which races are going to be vulnerable to this phenomena and that's before you set about trying to find the winner. It's a line of analysis I always think can leave you looking rather embarrassed, but when you get it right its very rewarding. The other thing to consider of course is 'betting in running' as you'll almost always get a significantly bigger price this way privided you've judged the pace angle correctly

[jon a]

I agree with the in-running especially on the all weather.Usually has to be a large field and a frontrunner dropping in trip.Then the price has to be decent for a return.I will put some up on this thread with high pace figures(lead horses) see how they fair.Be a start

[jon a]

Lead Horses

Ayr

12-55 Amron Lad

3-00 Sheriff hall

Folkestone

1-35 Mangonel

[jon a]

These figures give a very small contribution to a bet and have read the other thread.One thing next time there is 80mph winds avoid lead horses at southwell I.e On the cusp

Waste of time finding a bet solely on pace figures.....case closed

[Spook]

I'm inclined to ask how you're using them?

As i said, you can only really start to us them as an aid once you're clear about what they're actually telling you regarding any particular race.

It's not simply a case of backing the horse with the highest lead out figure. Only about 12% of races are won by horses that "make all" (on the flat) and that's pretty crude as different courses have different characteristics in this regard.

What a pace bias should do (especially in a splitting field) is tell you where the stronger pace is likely to be and then its for you to try and identify the horses who you think are most likely to capitalise on this. That's the critical insight that I tend to believe that pace bias offers. The nature of this puzzle changes dependent on distance, going, topography, field size, geometry, class etc If dealing with hold up horses coming through of course you need to consider the jockeys ability to judge pace.

One of the other factors you need consider (more prevalent at mid and longer distances) is what happens if you get more than one strong front runner and they start taking each other on for the lead? These are the ideal conditions for a 'pace collapse' as the duelling horses cut each others throats allowing a fast finisher to come through the field having been held up (Sublimity's Champion Hurdle is a classic example).

Having said all that, if you've been backing front runners into a 40 knot headwind I'm afraid you're not likely to generate that much sympathy. These are the days of googleearth and localised on-line weather forecasts. If someone as dilatory as me can source, rainfall radars, plus wind strengths and directions for French racing and use that help inform a remote understanding of conditions (normally quite accurately when I'm not getting Paris France and Paris Tennessee mixed up) then there's little excuse for not being able to build up at least an indicative picture for any UK track

[jon a]

The pace figures are a guideline as you say to in running and how the race will be run.I tend to use the figures for Southwell as there is a strong bias for lead to prominent horse types.Lingfield front runners have a tendency to be caught
I will Put an example up as I don't think he will mind



Lingfield Park 15:50 7f
Horse Draw .............. PaceFig
C'Mon You Irons (IRE) 1................ 1.67 (3.2 )
Polar Auroras 2 ............... 1.3 (2.5 )
Gazboolou 3 ....l........... 3.2 (3.2 )
Pytheas (USA) 4 ................ 2.2 (2.6 )
Cut And Thrust (IRE) 5 ............... 0.47 (0 )
Efistorm 6 ........l....... 0.93 (1.8 )
My Jeanie (IRE) 7 ............... 0.6 (1.8 )
Kenswick 8 .......l....... 0.6 (0 )
Race Average 1.37



As you can see from the figures gazboolou will lead ,Pytheas and c'mon you irons prominent ,cut and thrust,my jeanie and Keswick hold up
Struggling with posting on the iPad will pm you more examples and see how you perceive them

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

The pace figures are a guideline as you say to in running and how the race will be run.I tend to use the figures for Southwell as there is a strong bias for lead to prominent horse types.Lingfield front runners have a tendency to be caught I will Put an example up as I don't think he will mind Lingfield Park 15:50 7f Horse Draw .............. PaceFig C'Mon You Irons (IRE) 1................ 1.67 (3.2 ) Polar Auroras 2 ............... 1.3 (2.5 ) Gazboolou 3 ....l........... 3.2 (3.2 ) Pytheas (USA) 4 ................ 2.2 (2.6 ) Cut And Thrust (IRE) 5 ............... 0.47 (0 ) Efistorm 6 ........l....... 0.93 (1.8 ) My Jeanie (IRE) 7 ............... 0.6 (1.8 ) Kenswick 8 .......l....... 0.6 (0 ) Race Average 1.37 As you can see from the figures gazboolou will lead ,Pytheas and c'mon you irons prominent ,cut and thrust,my jeanie and Keswick hold up Struggling with posting on the iPad will pm you more examples and see how you perceive them

Gazboolou did lead and traded 5.7 low,c mon you irons was prominent and faded.Hold up horses Cut and Thrust (5/4) and My Jeanie(33/1) 1st and 2nd

[Hexham VIP]

Its worth coming back to this with the grand national and lincoln on the horizon. I used to do my own pace figures but now i am lazy and just use the running style in the weekender. I will try and get something typed up.