Paco Boy - Serious shout in Guineas

[The Duke]

Okay now I've been sceptical about this horses chances of staying the Guineas trip ever since he returned as a three-year-old, however what I saw from Paco Boy at Newbury this weekend has put serious doubts in my mind.

Lets start with looking at Paco Boy's pedigree, by Desert Style out of Tapenzee by Sandhurst Prince. All his siblings have won over a mile, and Fuell Cell over ten furlongs.

Paco Boy has a Dosage Index of 2.00 and a CoD of 0.42

Compare that to....

Cockney Rebel DI 1.91 CoD 0.69
George Washington DI 1.67 CoD 0.36
Footstepsinthesand DI 1.77 CoD 0.61
Haahfd DI 2.33 CoD 0.75
Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 CoD 0.25

Now the rating clocked by Paco Boy in the Greenham is pound for pound better than what Twice Over clocked at Newmarket earlier in the week.

Weighted to 9st
Paco Boy 97.92
Twice Over 97.07
Ravens Pass 96.97

Now we have a look at a couple of examples of Richard Hannon bringing horses through the Greenham route to the Guineas.

Redback - Won Greenham before 3rd to Rock Of Gibraltar at 25/1
Major Cadeaux - Won Greenham before 6th (Beaten 3L) behind Cockney Rebel at 10/1.

Now horses have a bad record in the Guineas who run in the Greenham, the closest was probably Enrique in 1999 for the last 10 years. However that was a poor renewal.

Last Ten Top Speed Ratings
Paco Boy 110
Enrique 110
Victory Note 107
Redback 96
Indesatchel 96
Salford City 93
Barathea Guest 92
Major Cadeaux 89
Muqbil 88
Red Clubs 82

However I think Paco Boy is a little better than your average Greenham winner, and the way he quickened up suggests he'll stay the extra furlong at Newmarket - although I dont think getting a mile at Newmarket is as hard as people make out.

YouTube - Paco Boy wins the Greenham Stakes Newbury 2008

I just think when you've got Twice Over at 6/1 and Raven's Pass at 5/1 best priced.

Then why is Paco Boy available at 119 on Betfair?

Paco Boy can also be backed each-way with plenty of firms at 25/1, I think people are missing the point here that Paco Boy will stay the Guineas trip.

Anyone got any thoughts?

[Norton]

An interesting point, eloquently explained!

Mind you, the streak you're on at the moment, I'd believe it if you told me Quixall Crossett is going to win the Gold Cup!!!!

[The Duke]

Not saying Paco Boy will win the Guineas Nort, I hope he doesn't because I'm all over Fast Company at 33/1 for a large chunk. However at the prices, he represents some stonking each-way value.

[Thommo]

Good read that. May have a few quid on.

Is it a definite starter though?

[The Duke]

I'd imagine it will be mate, especially after they've had to supplement it. I can't imagine them shelling out the kind of funds needed to get a horse into the race at such a late stage (although I'm not sure on the exact figures here) only for it not to take up that engagement.

Just read on the RP website that Twice Over has been ruled out of the Guineas in favour of the Derby.

Bookies
9/2 Ravens Pass
25/1 Paco Boy

Betfair
4/1 Ravens Pass
128/1 Paco Boy

hm....

[The Duke]

Couple of quotes from Paco Boy's connections on the Racing Post...

19 Apr 2008 Newbury (7Sft,RPR114) We'll go upstairs now and count the pennies. We'd love to run in the Guineas as it's a once in a lifetime opportunity, but we might just think instead of the Jersey Stakes. Ring me on Monday. - Derek Lucie Smith, owners' representative; He's obviously a good horse and I'll put him in my 'millionaires row' as soon as I get home. Hughesy' says he'll stay and that he hated the ground here. He's really never done anything wrong, and they've got the money to supplement him now. He does nothing at home but he's improved with every run and at Lingfield he was last off the bend, yet won by a length and three-quarters, going away. - Richard Hannon, trainer

15 Mar 2008 Lingfield (A.W) (7St,RPR101) That was very nice, he didn't half quicken. I don't know for sure where we go, possibly the Free Handicap, although I might take a chance in the Greenham. The horse is a speed boy, although Hughesy said he will go on to a mile no problem. - Richard Hannon, trainer

[Thommo]

Aye its the 128/1 price on betfair that casts a few doubts as to whether it will run.

Even so, has to be worth a few quid at that price.

[kidoncricketer]

the yard would never allow paco boy to be 125/1 on betfair if there arent HUGE doubts about it.

i expect you will find it classed as injured and miss the guineas in the next few days.

ONLY MY OPINION LIKE.

wont stop me putting a few pounds on.......

[The Duke]

GREENHAM STAKES winner Paco Boy has not been supplemented for the Stanjamesuk.com 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.

A bid for the Classic had been considered following his Newbury win but instead he could go for the Tetrarch Stakes at the Curragh on May 5 or the French 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp six days later.

Trainer Richard Hannon said: "We talked it over and the owners were happy to pay the late entry fee, but it's a lot of money and we feel there are better options for him."

Source: RP

[del boy]

Originally Posted by The Duke

GREENHAM STAKES winner Paco Boy has not been supplemented for the Stanjamesuk.com 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday. A bid for the Classic had been considered following his Newbury win but instead he could go for the Tetrarch Stakes at the Curragh on May 5 or the French 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp six days later. Trainer Richard Hannon said: "We talked it over and the owners were happy to pay the late entry fee, but it's a lot of money and we feel there are better options for him." Source: RP

In fairness its a lot of money and there is bound to be plenty of oppurtunities later on. Be a long time making up that sort of money if it all went Pete Tong on the day.

[Norton]

Originally Posted by The Duke

Not saying Paco Boy will win the Guineas Nort, I hope he doesn't because I'm all over Fast Company at 33/1 for a large chunk. However at the prices, he represents some stonking each-way value.

Fast Company is OUT of the Guineas after a poor blood test result

[Norton]

No matter, seen other thread now

[The Duke]

I know, absolutely gutted - feel like I've been kicked in the ******. Typical Godolphin again I guess.

[The Duke]

Runs in the French Guineas tomorrow at Longchamp (2:50).

[Spook]

Ground? it'll be about +3.00 tomorrow. I'm seriously struggling with this race but reckon there's a big price low drawn to place or win. Yorktown has tenuous form to oblige, and although Hello Morning is held on every line I can find, he's not held by much. At this stage I'm saying ....swerve

[The Duke]

Hm....

I'm looking more towards Paco Boy the more I look at the race. The track was quite quick if I remember correctly when he won at Newbury last September although my ratings appear to have gone walkies.

Alexander Castle could be an interesting one on his run behind McCartney. Kevin Ryans have been needing the run this year, so this ones mid-field finish in the Craven shouldn't be read into much. I know they regarded this colt highly last year.

From the RP:

Quote:

Alexander Castle, whom Kevin Ryan rated his first serious Classic hope, did best of them, but having been held up he did not have the speed to get in a blow. Although he was thought to be fit enough and he impressed on the way down to the start, he is probably worth another chance.

We also have Thewayyouare a full brother to Peeping Fawn who improved with every run and looks a nice horse for the year. Although a mile perhaps too sharp for him?

I'm tending to agree with giving it the swerve, but I'm itching to unleash a couple of quid in the direction of Richard Hannon's colt.

[Spook]

Well there's a fair chance he'll be quite big on the PMU I'd have thought give it a try if the price is right

[The Duke]

Looking towards the French 1000 Guineas, does anyone think that Conference Call is rather big at 16/1 with Bet365? Granted she was easily put in her place by Zarkava in the Boussac, but Conference Call should have no problems with this sort of ground, and is definitley worth of a place at the very least.

Yes, no?

[The Duke]

Trust Richard Hughes to fuck me over like that. Such an overrated piece of tosh he is. I very rarely get on a jockeys case as it must be difficult to do the job, but he cocks up nearly every time he's on something with a chance - useless knob he is.

[kidoncricketer]

didnt ever have a chance with the draw, and the way the race was run dukey lad.

a messy looking race tbf.

[The Duke]

Here's a replay of the race...

YouTube - Falco

[The Duke]

After a nightmare trip in the French Guineas, Paco Boy comes back after a layoff to win the Lennox Stakes at 7/1.

Get in there!

Hope some of you followed up.

Originally Posted by The Duke

After a nightmare trip in the French Guineas, Paco Boy comes back after a layoff to win the Lennox Stakes at 7/1. Get in there! Hope some of you followed up.

good shot on paco boy.alot of people lose faith in a horse when they lose money on it.

p.s you are right about hughes,he cost me big time riding home affairs at epsom.i think thats why abdulla gave him the sack.

[The Duke]

Paco Boy wins the Group 1 - Prix La Foret with consumate ease.

We knew

[kidoncricketer]

he has been a star for me this year.

id better check my ten to follow