One for Ascot - Page 2 - OHR

**The Duke** · **16-06-09**, **03:36 PM**

Quote Richard Hughes on BBC2....

""Best horse ive EVER ridden by far, hes a freak"

Thatis some statement!I have never seen a horse run away with a jockey like that and still win so easily, let alone a two-year-old on only his second run.

Thats a superfreak!

andthereoff · **16-06-09**, **05:06 PM**

Early days but lets see how he develops from here.

**givemeabreak** · **16-06-09**, **05:08 PM**

Opponents couldn't land a blow, another speed rating mugging for the bookies

Quality mate cheers

**Spook** · **16-06-09**, **06:19 PM**

This one's a perfect illustration of the speed rating philosophy in truth. There's no shortage of doubters who crab the method (I'm not personally convinced that a lot of them simply can't be bothered, lack the ability, or just don't have the time) to sit down and apply themselves. Now where as some will acknowledge this, others will simply seek to dismiss them as irrelevant. It's one of the reasons why speed raters tend to occupy their own little 'twilight zone' and have devised their own lexicon which only they understand, and which is a mystery to the uninitiated otherwise.

One of the things to understand of course is that the competition first and foremost is presented by the clock. Sounds simple really doesn't it. You'll often hear form students saying "What's it beaten" if they have doubts about the strength of a performance, and when you say "the clock" they look at you gone out. It's a complete anathema to them.

Canford Cliffs is a perfect example of this. You didn't need to know what it had beaten, you didn't need to wait to see what subsequent runners did for the form. You were only interested in the one horse, and as soon as it went past the finishing line and you adjusted to variance, you knew what the significance of that figure was. All you needed to do was satisfy yourself that you hadn't got a rogue card, and what the running plans were. It's capitalising on these windows that allow the speed rater to take the price of 14, whilst other punters are playing catch up. The penny drops eventually, but you normally hold the edge by having a figure within an hour of the last race which will normally stand up to scrutiny better than something as subjective as an opinion or impression.

A similar thing happened with Teofilo who was availabel at 40's and 33's whilst everyone was looking towards Trinity College and Holy Roman Emperor. I felt Canford would be 12's for the Guineas after today, so impressive he was though, the consensus seems to be 8's. I wouldn't lose sight of the fact however, that his dosage profile is much closer (almost spot on in terms of DI and CD) to a Derby winner for those looking for some ante-post interest.

Personally I'd hang fire now, as there's sure to be some Ballydoyle hot shots appear in the next 6 weeks to throw the market open, and the chances of Canford going a whole season undefeated are slim I'd have thought. Hannon doesn't normally hide his horses, and to keep one on the boil of peak performance from May to October is no small ask. He's got to meet with a reversal somewhere - surely?

**FMH** · **16-06-09**, **08:20 PM**

Great winner lads. Well done Jamie for pointing this out and mopping up the ante-post prices

**The Duke** · **17-06-09**, **10:09 AM**

Spook,

I just can't see how his pedigree can suggest he'll be more a Derby candidate than Guineas? There is absolutely no way on pedigree he'll get the Derby trip.

He's by Tagula, a graded winner over seven furlongs but arguably better over six as a juvenile his best horses ranked by RPR and what distance it was earned over are...

Tax Free - 120 - 5f
Canford Cliffs - 119 - 6f
King Orchisios - 114 - 5f
Pentecost - 113 - 8f & 9f
Atlantis Prince - 113 - 8f
Beaver Patrol - 109 - 6f
Pure Poetry - 109 - 8f

Just looking through his list of progeny almost every single one of them are sprinters or milers regardless of the pedigree of the dam.

Now we'll go to Mrs Marsh (Marju).

There is no race record for her listed in the Racing Post, so it's impossible to tell what her favourite trip would have been.

The siblings to Mrs Marsh have been able to run at a variety of trips but the general consensus seems they're better over a mile.

Using the same method as above, regarding the RPR and the distance recorded over we have...

Baltic Dip (Benny The Dip) - 95 - 7f
Trios (Efisio) - 83 - 9f
Ebaiyn (Monsun) - 82 - 9f
Triple Sharp (Selkirk) - 81 - 10f
Pina Colada (Sabrehill) - 81 - 10f
Dry Martini (Darshaan) - 79 - 11f

So looking at that there appears to be some stamina on the side of Mrs Marsh' pedigree with her dam being by Lyphard and the general idea of the line seems to be focused around stamina influence from the sire side.

We have Marju as the sire of Mrs Marsh, who earned 126 behind Generous in the Derby, and 123 in the St James Palace Stakes, so equally effective over both a mile and mile and a half. I'll list out his top RPR horses and the distance it was recorded over.

Viva Pataca - 126 - 8f & 12f
Soviet Song - 124 - 8f
Indigenous - 121 - 12f
Asset - 121 - 6f
Saturn - 119 - 10f
Naheef - 117 - 10f

I'm actually quite surprised by this result, I thought Marju was more an influence on speed upto and around a mile, so to see four of his top six horses doing better over longer distances is interesting.

Therefore this could actually mean Canford Cliffs could be potentially capable of landing a Derby, but his raw speed and inability to really settle in the race yesterday makes me think a Guineas is about as far as he'll want to go.

I am worried however that the dam of Mrs Marsh, Drei her progeny have a Benny The Dip (Derby winner), Monsun (Big stamina influence) and are yet struggling over longer trips - now perhaps they're not any good but you'd like to think they'd improve for the extra yardage!

I'm actually almost convinced despite the above this horse is a Guineas horse and not particulary a Derby horse, but could pinch it if we have another weak year in the division.

It's hard to really form an opinion on dosage because we only have a handful of points to play with in his pedigree.

To wrap up, Richard Hughes was on TalkSport this morning telling Alan Brazil and all the listeners to "Save up as much money as you can before May next year, and lump it on this fella for the Guineas, he's an absolute machine, a freak, never rode anything like it in my life."

Lets hope his judgement is right, because lets face it - Hughes isn't really the type of person to come out before a race (as he did at Ascot before Paco Boy won) saying if he had to lose all his rides at Ascot to keep one, he'd keep Canford Cliffs - that is some statement.

Hopefully Hannon looks after him and campaigns him with a three-year-old campaign in mind, and finally hopefully Godawful don't get their chequebook out to buy him.

**The Duke** · **17-06-09**, **10:16 AM**

In regards to the time of his victory, I've brought him out at the following 94.47+ rating. Compared to previous years he ranks quite favourably.

94.47+ - Canford Cliffs
90.14 - Art Conniseur
89.64 - Henrythenavigator

Quite pleased with my poke for the Coventry yesterday, and with my Guineas poke at 25-1 before the race. I just wish I'd acted sooner and may have secured double the price for the Guineas, lessons in life learnt I suppose.

Hopefully he goes unbeaten all year, it's a tough ask considering Hannon is not one adverse to keeping his good two-year-olds off the track but hopefully racing has an emerging superstar.

**Thommo** · **17-06-09**, **10:58 AM**

Looks a bloody machine, Hughesy was pulling him back 1 and a half furlongs out... absolutely crazy!

A superstar in the making I reckon.

**kidoncricketer** · **17-06-09**, **11:40 AM**

smallish owner = at the mercy of godolphins sharks.

no doubts imo. that those bams will buy him, (2 mill) i reckon

**The Duke** · **22-05-10**, **02:53 PM**

**mlmrob** · **25-05-10**, **08:41 AM**

Well done to you guys who unearthed this horse a year ago.

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16-06-09, 03:36 PM	#26 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Quote Richard Hughes on BBC2.... ""Best horse ive EVER ridden by far, hes a freak" Thatis some statement!I have never seen a horse run away with a jockey like that and still win so easily, let alone a two-year-old on only his second run. Thats a superfreak!

16-06-09, 05:06 PM	#27 (permalink)
andthereoff Banned. Join Date: Oct 2008	Early days but lets see how he develops from here.

16-06-09, 05:08 PM	#28 (permalink)
givemeabreak World Class Join Date: Jul 2007	Opponents couldn't land a blow, another speed rating mugging for the bookies Quality mate cheers

16-06-09, 06:19 PM	#29 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	This one's a perfect illustration of the speed rating philosophy in truth. There's no shortage of doubters who crab the method (I'm not personally convinced that a lot of them simply can't be bothered, lack the ability, or just don't have the time) to sit down and apply themselves. Now where as some will acknowledge this, others will simply seek to dismiss them as irrelevant. It's one of the reasons why speed raters tend to occupy their own little 'twilight zone' and have devised their own lexicon which only they understand, and which is a mystery to the uninitiated otherwise. One of the things to understand of course is that the competition first and foremost is presented by the clock. Sounds simple really doesn't it. You'll often hear form students saying "What's it beaten" if they have doubts about the strength of a performance, and when you say "the clock" they look at you gone out. It's a complete anathema to them. Canford Cliffs is a perfect example of this. You didn't need to know what it had beaten, you didn't need to wait to see what subsequent runners did for the form. You were only interested in the one horse, and as soon as it went past the finishing line and you adjusted to variance, you knew what the significance of that figure was. All you needed to do was satisfy yourself that you hadn't got a rogue card, and what the running plans were. It's capitalising on these windows that allow the speed rater to take the price of 14, whilst other punters are playing catch up. The penny drops eventually, but you normally hold the edge by having a figure within an hour of the last race which will normally stand up to scrutiny better than something as subjective as an opinion or impression. A similar thing happened with Teofilo who was availabel at 40's and 33's whilst everyone was looking towards Trinity College and Holy Roman Emperor. I felt Canford would be 12's for the Guineas after today, so impressive he was though, the consensus seems to be 8's. I wouldn't lose sight of the fact however, that his dosage profile is much closer (almost spot on in terms of DI and CD) to a Derby winner for those looking for some ante-post interest. Personally I'd hang fire now, as there's sure to be some Ballydoyle hot shots appear in the next 6 weeks to throw the market open, and the chances of Canford going a whole season undefeated are slim I'd have thought. Hannon doesn't normally hide his horses, and to keep one on the boil of peak performance from May to October is no small ask. He's got to meet with a reversal somewhere - surely?

16-06-09, 08:20 PM	#30 (permalink)
FMH Back From The Dead Join Date: Sep 2006	Great winner lads. Well done Jamie for pointing this out and mopping up the ante-post prices

17-06-09, 10:09 AM	#31 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Spook, I just can't see how his pedigree can suggest he'll be more a Derby candidate than Guineas? There is absolutely no way on pedigree he'll get the Derby trip. He's by Tagula, a graded winner over seven furlongs but arguably better over six as a juvenile his best horses ranked by RPR and what distance it was earned over are... Tax Free - 120 - 5f Canford Cliffs - 119 - 6f King Orchisios - 114 - 5f Pentecost - 113 - 8f & 9f Atlantis Prince - 113 - 8f Beaver Patrol - 109 - 6f Pure Poetry - 109 - 8f Just looking through his list of progeny almost every single one of them are sprinters or milers regardless of the pedigree of the dam. Now we'll go to Mrs Marsh (Marju). There is no race record for her listed in the Racing Post, so it's impossible to tell what her favourite trip would have been. The siblings to Mrs Marsh have been able to run at a variety of trips but the general consensus seems they're better over a mile. Using the same method as above, regarding the RPR and the distance recorded over we have... Baltic Dip (Benny The Dip) - 95 - 7f Trios (Efisio) - 83 - 9f Ebaiyn (Monsun) - 82 - 9f Triple Sharp (Selkirk) - 81 - 10f Pina Colada (Sabrehill) - 81 - 10f Dry Martini (Darshaan) - 79 - 11f So looking at that there appears to be some stamina on the side of Mrs Marsh' pedigree with her dam being by Lyphard and the general idea of the line seems to be focused around stamina influence from the sire side. We have Marju as the sire of Mrs Marsh, who earned 126 behind Generous in the Derby, and 123 in the St James Palace Stakes, so equally effective over both a mile and mile and a half. I'll list out his top RPR horses and the distance it was recorded over. Viva Pataca - 126 - 8f & 12f Soviet Song - 124 - 8f Indigenous - 121 - 12f Asset - 121 - 6f Saturn - 119 - 10f Naheef - 117 - 10f I'm actually quite surprised by this result, I thought Marju was more an influence on speed upto and around a mile, so to see four of his top six horses doing better over longer distances is interesting. Therefore this could actually mean Canford Cliffs could be potentially capable of landing a Derby, but his raw speed and inability to really settle in the race yesterday makes me think a Guineas is about as far as he'll want to go. I am worried however that the dam of Mrs Marsh, Drei her progeny have a Benny The Dip (Derby winner), Monsun (Big stamina influence) and are yet struggling over longer trips - now perhaps they're not any good but you'd like to think they'd improve for the extra yardage! I'm actually almost convinced despite the above this horse is a Guineas horse and not particulary a Derby horse, but could pinch it if we have another weak year in the division. It's hard to really form an opinion on dosage because we only have a handful of points to play with in his pedigree. To wrap up, Richard Hughes was on TalkSport this morning telling Alan Brazil and all the listeners to "Save up as much money as you can before May next year, and lump it on this fella for the Guineas, he's an absolute machine, a freak, never rode anything like it in my life." Lets hope his judgement is right, because lets face it - Hughes isn't really the type of person to come out before a race (as he did at Ascot before Paco Boy won) saying if he had to lose all his rides at Ascot to keep one, he'd keep Canford Cliffs - that is some statement. Hopefully Hannon looks after him and campaigns him with a three-year-old campaign in mind, and finally hopefully Godawful don't get their chequebook out to buy him.

17-06-09, 10:16 AM	#32 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	In regards to the time of his victory, I've brought him out at the following 94.47+ rating. Compared to previous years he ranks quite favourably. 94.47+ - Canford Cliffs 90.14 - Art Conniseur 89.64 - Henrythenavigator Quite pleased with my poke for the Coventry yesterday, and with my Guineas poke at 25-1 before the race. I just wish I'd acted sooner and may have secured double the price for the Guineas, lessons in life learnt I suppose. Hopefully he goes unbeaten all year, it's a tough ask considering Hannon is not one adverse to keeping his good two-year-olds off the track but hopefully racing has an emerging superstar.

17-06-09, 10:58 AM	#33 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Looks a bloody machine, Hughesy was pulling him back 1 and a half furlongs out... absolutely crazy! A superstar in the making I reckon.

17-06-09, 11:40 AM	#34 (permalink)
kidoncricketer soccer guru Join Date: May 2005 Location: scotland	smallish owner = at the mercy of godolphins sharks. no doubts imo. that those bams will buy him, (2 mill) i reckon

22-05-10, 02:53 PM	#35 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands

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25-05-10, 08:41 AM	#36 (permalink)
mlmrob Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Durham	Well done to you guys who unearthed this horse a year ago.