One for Ascot

[The Duke]

Worth checking today's Newbury card for a potential Coventry candidate.

Quoted at around 14-1, could look good value come the time.

[Spook]

Yeah, funnily enough I've just been looking at it. Was that the race won by Orizba last year. The rating looks reliable to me, although I think there's either a bit of wind interference or rail movement going on, and it will probably play to split the straight and round courses. The draw will play its part there of course.

On a related theme, there's a few mighty impressive/ suspicious handicap performers at York today. I'm a little bit more sceptical about these as I seem to remember it took a bit of time for Ascot and Doncaster to settle down, but that involved relaying and reconfiguring a track. This one is more to do with drainage and today was probably the first time it's been put into action, and has thrown up a couple of barely believable outcomes. My suspicion is that the drainage has been laid in the straight, and that it stopped raining mid afternoon. I can't believe that either Sloop John B or Valery Borzov are as good as the figures they've returned

[kidoncricketer]

ive stuck a few bob on this at 15s, with bet365.


i see its 3/1f and the more i read about it, the more im thinking cert


lets hope iv not jinxed it.

only 5 more sleepless nights for me.......

[The Duke]

15s? Thats a strange price! You sure you got 15/1?

[kidoncricketer]

defo 15/1


maybe that means 14s, i dont know, maybe decimal like betfair ?? in fact it must be decimal, as i had that fame and glory at 3.25

[Spook]

I just have a sneaking impression that horses who've won a single race with a degree of comfort find their first step into competitive racing a serious jump to have to make, and a few get caught out for lack of battle hardiness. Having said that, the trainer will have it ready I'd have thought as he's not averse to flogging his 2yo's!!!

I seem to think it was the same race that Orizaba won at Newbury last year by about 10L's or something like that, when he clocked the fastest figure going into Ascot (high 90's on TS). He tried to run the same race, but suddenly found that other horses could match him and came in a respectable 5th.

[The Duke]

You'd be correct Spook.

It looks a tough race but Canford Cliffs impressed at Newbury, clocked a time I think 2.3sec faster in the last three furlongs than Border Patrol did in the 6f Listed Sprint (for 3yo's) slightly later on the card.

That takes some doing, let alone on debut!

[Spook]

I'm struggling to believe that a 2yo debutant can beat a listed winner by some 13.5L's over 3F's, especially as my own figures suggest that Border Patrol ran 101.41 to par, and so has probably hit something close to a Gp3 time in his own right. You don't normally get tactical affairs at 6F's and if you split them at mid distance the horses shouldn't really have made the transfer from anerobic to aerobic running. This is supposed to happen at about 3.5F's to 4F's although there's evidence to suggest that modern training methods can push this out to as far as 5.5F's to 6F's furlongs now.

If Canford Cliffs had done this then you might as well take a price for Guineas now. He should be a penalty kick inthe Coventry at odds on. Are there any links for these races that don't involve paying the RP? Hand timing at Newbury is difficult as there are a lack of reference points. Try and find a line that runs across the track not a furlong marker. It could be a road/ path, the way they cut the grass etc don't use a shadow, even with an hour between races, they'll move.

I've seen it done when the marker race has been run at a false pace, but I'd be amazed if a 2yo can do that to a listed performer, i've never heard of it, and especially to one who'd be considered a useful performer in his own right.

Having said that, even if you've hand timed it inaccurately, I wouldn't have thought you'd be much outside 2.0 - 2.5 secs net

[kidoncricketer]

great discussion guys, i backed the orizaba thing or whatever last year, and im always a sucker for horses running away. but the noises coming from mr hannon is that this horse is a little special (website, not inside info)

[Spook]

What makes it all the more meritous is that Border Patrol subsequently won a Listed race at Sandown in a slow time. To win a sprint in a slow time you normally need to have a bit of acceleration yourself, Border Patrol has won this running to a mark of about 73 or 74 I reckon (on the clock) so for a 2yo to put 13L's between the pair over 3F's beggars belief

[The Duke]

Article from Nick Mordin's website:

Quote:

AMAZING DEBUT BY CANFORD HILLS CANFORD HILLS (38) put up an extraordinary performance to win on his racecourse debut at Newbury. He clocked a fast time and covered the last three furlongs 2.3 seconds quicker than decent three year old sprinters did in a Listed race over the same trip. His final time was a bit slower than the older horses, but I've no doubt he would have beaten them seeing how quickly he came home. Canfor Hills is a muscular. very mature horse that already looks like a three year old. He was always cruising and produced an amazing burst of speed to quickly open up a seven length gap on his rivals in the final furlong to win full of running. I've no doubt that Canford Hills is a Group 1 horse on what I saw here. He has a lot more early pace than his smart stablemate Monsieur Chevalier who I previously rated the top two year old. I just don't see him getting beat any time soon. He'll surely be winning a Group 1 over six furlongs.

[givemeabreak]

Who is this guy to be stealing your work mate

[Spook]

Shame he's got the horses name wrong!!!

I believe Mordin hand times them using the on-line stopwatch, but I'd be surprised if he was that far wrong. With that level of performance, the horse would be able to defy being drawn badly and probably being slow away too

[The Duke]

I'm feeling increasingly smug as to availing myself at the available 14s and 12s a month ago!

You think it'd be worth trying to source a price for next years Guineas?

Edit: 25-1 with Bet365

[Spook]

There's not really enough on the breeding side to form a defintive opinion, but with a dosage profile of;

1-0-7-2-0 (10) CD = 0.82 DI = 0.00

You'd normally conclude that 12F's is the optimum trip. The CD and DI figures are screeming Derby at you, but with only 10 pts to play with you'd have to conclude its unrelaible. Being by Tagaula you'd be thinking a mile, and he's a February foal, so that wouldn't put you off. If he wins the Coventry he'll probably be put in at about 12's I'd have thought. He just has a very unfashionable look to him, so I'd be more inclined to try and trade him if taking an ante post price I think. Hannon's made some noises about winning the Derby, (but then most trainers do) I wouldn't read too much into that. He also has a habit of mullering his 2yo's!!! That he's seemingly taken Monsieur Chevalier out should be a clue as to how highly he's regarded though

[The Duke]

Triple Aspect second behind Border Patrol in this said Listed race won the Scurry Stakes (Listed) at Sandown this afternoon adding another string to the bow of Canford Cliffs.

[quadrilla]

Rails moved in around 7f and 5f bends but impact on distances not notified.

[quadrilla]

On my ratings AIR CHIEF MARSHAL (IRE) run at GOW on 03/5/9 is worth a second look.

[Spook]

Originally Posted by quadrilla

Rails moved in around 7f and 5f bends but impact on distances not notified.

It's not really relevant as he's not talking about a rating, but rather a result being used to frank the form of a previous rating. It doesn't mean anything for certain, but it's always nice if you've clocked a fast race to see other winners coming from it, and other winners from the card, going on to win again and thus reinforcing the figure a bit. In effect you're using the performance of other horses that ran that day to help lend some strenght in depth to your rating. In this particular case he's talking about to races over the same C&D where the 2yo out performed the older horses over the final 3F's. It's tempting to crab the listed race for the older horses as the explanation, but with both the first and second winning at listed class since, it's getting harder to make this stick as an explanation, and so by proxy the pendulum is starting to swing towards Canford Cliffs's ability being the more likely explanation

[quadrilla]

We done all Canford Cliffs backers' - at 10/1 +. At the current price, I'm a big layer. This is a deserved obvious early short favourite - all other entries know what they have to beat.

Sports psychology tells me that the favourite trainer will take the "foot off the pedal" not wanting to over-prepare ( the pressure in on ) and all the others' will up the tempo, pushing to the limits - one of them will succeed ( nothing to loose ).

Everyone wants to win and the target to be beat has been identified - the pace and tactics of the race will not favour CC.

Game on.

[Spook]

Originally Posted by quadrilla

On my ratings AIR CHIEF MARSHAL (IRE) run at GOW on 03/5/9 is worth a second look.

It all seems to hinge on whether 5F to 7F races are run on a separate course at Gowran? The races at 8F's plus are significantly slower, which points to either different going on two different courses, or more likely, the rails have been dolled out on the round course.

There's a line through Golden Bubbles to Steinbeck that would put Air Chief Marshal a fair distance behind the last named, and he completed the same C&D 1.90 secs slower than the winner of the 0-100 fillies handicap. Until you know a little bit more about the course configuartion, or rail movements I wouldn't like to say, but my suspicion is that the more accurate figure would come from splitting your sample.

[Spook]

Originally Posted by quadrilla

Sports psychology tells me that the favourite trainer will take the "foot off the pedal" not wanting to over-prepare ( the pressure in on ) and all the others' will up the tempo, pushing to the limits - one of them will succeed ( nothing to loose ).

I wouldn't be worried by the idea that the trainer will take his foot of the gas and err on the side of caution. There are few guys out there who have a reputation for being quite severe on their 2yo's, and some less charitable folks would go so far as to call them horse breakers. Richard Hannon is one name that frequently crops up when people are discussing trainers who don't mind flogging their 2yo's and making hay whilst the sun shines.

If he's beaten, i'd have thought it will be more likely to do with lack of racing experience. He's not going to be able to dictate terms like he did at Newbury, and tomorrows race is bound to come as a bit of a jolt to him.

It will be interesting as he's a near on carbon copy of Orizaba, and at 2/1 I'd rather be a layer I think. Having said that, if those sections are right (and I doubt it myself) then nothing should be able to lay a glove on him.

[The Duke]

Job done!

Hail ye Speed Figures, landed an absolute coup there!!!

[kidoncricketer]

dukey boy,



I LOVE YOU


doubled with sariska in the oaks, ive got several hundred in the kitty.



fame and glory done me for a new zafira



and that was a mighty run........



no doubt nick mordin will get the praise.



but the duke knew

[broadsword]

Just quoted 8/1 for the Guineas aswell mate. Top stuff Dukey boy