OHR Publication

[andthereoff]

Just wondering if there would any chance of an OHR publication based on speed ratings?

I think with sectionals coming into the picture there maybe a gap in the market for the avid racing fan who want's to divulge more into the direction of speed which is no doubt going to be more marketed and I've seen it more publically pushed through the media on ATR/RUK with more references to time even though some of the remarks may be way off.

I believe we have the team here to put something together fornightly or monthly;

Spook, Jamie, Landsown, Manchestermavrik, Broadswood, Givemeabreak, CPCragie, TopCat, Quadrilla, Retenous, Fragile and Hexham have all shown their interest in speed ratings contributing in the section showing a sound knowledge of the subject.

I think OHRs history speaks for itself, there is no one better than us at what we do so why not push it further and more widespead across all media outlets.

[kidoncricketer]

thats were the real money could be made mate.

[CPGagie]

If you guys want to cut your own throats, thats your business. I'll be no part of it.

I was talking to an author of a book relating to speed figures not too long ago, and he said he could only make money these days by playing in the in-running market. His book shows his methods and the various tricks he uses. Now he says he cant fathom out why his methods arent returning a profit. IMO, he sold out, for a few K (probably less than 5) and 15 minutes of fame.

So I'm not sure where this 'real money' is coming from. You cant make money unless you have an edge or have some privileged info, either passed on, or by observation. The last thing you should do is tell all, even posting on an internet forum is more than enough to screw it up imo.

I'll rather roll in my own smugness and profit, over 2 minutes of internet stardom, any day of the week. Never mind going across as many media outlets as possible. Are you guys for real? I suspect you believe in yourselves, but feel the need for some sort of recognition. Get a grip lads, its about beating the bookies, remember.

It wouldnt work anyway, I dont think anyone on here (unless its an ante post market, but even then I think thats a bit daft at times, or a classy meeting with GP1 events) is going to post anything until they've got their own money down, and after that, the prices invariably contract. Any subscribers would be short lived or few.

[Spook]

In truth, a lot of what you'd be doing is recycling or summarising a lot of other peoples ideas anyway. I still maintain there's some angles in France, but ultimately its pretty difficult to find something that no one has considered before. The few people who have made breakthroughs in speed related ideas tend to be American professors anyway. Most people are reworking other people's work though

I think Chris is over-estimating the reach of OHR though. The forum isn't that well known and I'd be surprised if anyone really follows ideas/ tips religiously. For the most part its not significantly different to something like the Weekender when all said and done. It's just a magazine with a few ideas being discussed out. The only thing i tend to do is leave my rationale on a take it or leave it basis. You win some you lose some etc I make enough for me to keep going, but have never been able to break into the next layer where I could consider it a significant second income and that's been the same for years.

If you crudely say something like this

75% - lose
75 - 85% - break even perhaps with a small profit
85% - 95% - make a half decent profit
95% - 99.5% - make a good profit
99.5% - 100% - can make a living out of it

I'd be about 87% - 91%. I suspect the thing above all else that has consistently stopped me getting into the next bracket is poor staking, and until I get the hang of that, I'll never make further progress

[The Duke]

Whilst I am all for putting together Horses To Follow books each year to help finance the running costs of the website I have to admit this sort of idea doesn't really interest me at all.

I think Chris has been a bit harsh in his reply but what he says I agree with. The reach of OHRacing despite not being massive is out there, and is known on the internet, and should the impossible happen and the publication would become successful it would ruin our own punting as prices and the like would evaporate within minutes of release.

[CPGagie]

Sorry guys, I didnt mean to sound harsh. I tell it how I see it, thats all.

Mordy, I disagree with those percentages a little. While I'm on though. You jumped around between here and FF, and maybe elsewhere recently, with that French race and your ante post bet. i didnt bother, but did read a little about what you'd said.

Anyway, my point is, you'd been saying about how great a price it was, yet you then went in and told others to get involved. I dont think there was much around on the exchanges, and bookies ante post bets may have been restricted to a hundred or so. In hindsight, were you wise to run around telling people that it looks worthy of a punt? I know a few followed you in for sure, for how much I dont know, but they'll have dented some of the tastier prices, especially on the exchanges. Had you really finished with it? You pointed it out when there was still massive prices available. What were you doing? Seriously, not a piss take. You dont go to work and give half you pay packet away to buddies in the pub just because you've done some overtime.

Anyway, percentages (you've expressed it incorrectly, but I know what you mean)...... I'd have it more like this...

93% Lose (to varying degrees)
5% Hover
2% Profit over time.

I dont think your last two percentages are separate. If someone makes a good profit, they make a good profit. Its more a question of what they do with that percentage profit.

I'm a classic example. I did the ground work, gained an understanding, developed my discipline, etc etc. Then in the 90's I'd go out and every few months pick up a few K (often just 1 - 2), much more than I'd lost or been hovering around with. Yes i made a profit over periods of time, but as soon as I had that excess cash, I was off partying for a while, often a good while. It never really took me anywhere, other than on holidays. Then I'd return to the scene, back with a few hundred to play with.
In my very early days, I worked just as hard at it (no job), and was playing with tenners, twenty quid was a big bet for me back then, and every other week I'd have a couple of hundred to party with that coming weekend. That went on for ages, and off and on, between shitty jobs to appease the X, who after all, was looking for some sort of stability.

I havent really changed, other than I dont do the party thing anymore. I took a hit at the start of this year, but I can live with that. However, last years profits are being used to add value to the house. Money made during this coming winter will be spent on an extension on the other side of the house and having it kitted out (bathroom, tiling etc). So I still spend it, but its more of an alternative investment these days. A new car is another thing, and so it goes on. I guess its similar to drawing a wage, but the notion i used to have about reaching for the betting stars is long gone. For one thing, its impossible, there is a limit to a persons betting profits, and i think the house investment thing isnt a bad way to enhance that money (if done correctly).

IMHO its no different to having a job (or two), and when you consider the hours, its possibly not as viable (depending on skills out there in the real world). In fact, when i consider the hours and dedication I've put into this over the years, i could have become a world class surgeon or something (or at least a GP or blindfolded and half pissed a Dentist), so it doesnt really add up. However, I never wanted to be a surgeon or anything else, so it suits me, but I wouldnt recommend it to anyone.

Now I must get back to digging and nudging granite boulders around. I'm saving money by doing this donkey work, so the professionals are cheaper. I keep telling myself "how many labourers are on 200 bucks an hour", but the amount of time its taking, I think 60 is nearer the mark.

Again, apologies if i sounded harsh guys. I just wanted to drive my point across, nothing personal.

Right then, pick axe...C'MON!!!!!

[CPGagie]

"yet you then went in and told others to get involved"

Sorry Mordy, you didnt do that. you did make a bit of a song and dance about it though, which kind of amounted to the same thing. though you didnt tell anyone to get involved, not that I saw.

Just thought i'd correct myself there.

[andthereoff]

Can I firstly apologise for posting the thread, secondly I'd like to say that I have a lot of time on my hands at the minute unfortunatly and just wanted to contribute something to OHR given the blog is dead.

Maybe the idea isn't viable and it was stupid to even consider such a project but it was worth it for the replies, some very good posts in return.

[CPGagie]

ATO, without ideas, nothing would ever happen.

I'm really stalling with is manual work. One more coffee, then its on!

[CPGagie]

"ultimately its pretty difficult to find something that no one has considered before"

I agree with that, regarding any particular race. Also, very few avenues are left unexplored in regard to methodology.

When I'm betting, and waiting for the prices, I can sense others sitting there as well. I usually let out a "ferk you guys" and slam my cash down where i can, or a "Oooo, you bastards" if they start making a move. I just try to be as ready as i can be. You can usually tell how long its going to take as well, and have a fair idea on how the market is going to shape over time.

There are exceptions though, and its possible to predict a drift, but most of the time they will contract somewhat as the day goes on. It just depends how deep you've had to dig in the first place. Anything under 5's and i dont like to mess around, as there are clear indications in the form book to its chances, so those prices get snapped up early.

In most instances these days, where i believe a horse will drift, is when its a larger price to start (10/1+), and it is always the stats that I'm willing to take on. Thats about the only time I'll wait it out for a while, but I'm still ready to strike while waiting, just in case someone starts making a move. What i mean by the stats could be anything, but usually they've looked at form incorrectly. It might look like a horse never runs well fresh, until you find out there were reasons why it hasnt, and looking right back in its form, it maybe didnt do badly one time when conditions werent ideal, but better than the other times. Could be anything, but the deeper you've had to dig, generally, the better the price and the more chance of a drift, even if it is temporary. (I'm stating the obvious really). 5/1 or less though (a gut generalisation) and they're swift to react to bookmaker generosity. I honestly think I can sense them sat waiting in the morning though.

Punters work it out in the end, its just a question of how long it takes them. There is an area that I've wanted to exploit, as I'm sure (99% certain anyway) that it can be done. Its a case of setting ones stall out a little differently in the first place, and watching markets at set times. Being down here, I cant really do it as it would mean being constantly nocturnal. I will PM you later ATO, as you say you have some time on your hands at the moment. Maybe you'd like to check it out? It would need discussing daily I guess, or at least thinking out, but imo would be quite lucrative.

That is definitely it. Work time for this kid!

[Spook]

Originally Posted by CPGagie

Mordy, I disagree with those percentages a little. While I'm on though. You jumped around between here and FF, and maybe elsewhere recently, with that French race and your ante post bet. i didnt bother, but did read a little about what you'd said. Anyway, my point is, you'd been saying about how great a price it was, yet you then went in and told others to get involved. I dont think there was much around on the exchanges, and bookies ante post bets may have been restricted to a hundred or so. In hindsight, were you wise to run around telling people that it looks worthy of a punt? I know a few followed you in for sure, for how much I dont know, but they'll have dented some of the tastier prices, especially on the exchanges. Had you really finished with it? You pointed it out when there was still massive prices available. What were you doing? Seriously, not a piss take. You dont go to work and give half you pay packet away to buddies in the pub just because you've done some overtime.

It doesn't bother me that much in honesty, and although the bet looks like terrific value now, it wouldn't have been a horse I could have got too involved with for a host of reasons so that would be factored into the stake

1: It wasn't (still isn't) entered for the Arc
2: It missed its entry and supposed nominated target in the Prix du Lys (you'd have had to back it on the back of that to get the bigger prices) I backed it about a week or so after the L'Avre
3: Unless you were close enough to Fabre to know, there was no confirmation of the intention to supplement for the Grand Prix until 48 hours before the race. If it missed this race, the chances are he had no intention of running in the Arc so a not insignificant amount of the bet revolved around trying to second guess Fabre's plans
4: It then had to win the Grand Prix, which even if you thought it would, it still carried a risk element
5: It still had/ has to win the Niel or get close enough to merit a supplementary entry for October. Fabre has now said he'll supplement and there's no reason to think he won't all things being equal
6: Fabre's never routed a horse out of the Prix L'Avre to the Arc so non-participation had to weigh heavily on any staking strategy
7: The speed figure itself could be wrong. The video Jamie sourced helped me think there was something in it though. Would I have seen that video had I not mentioned it? probably not in truth
8: I've sourced them out of France before, but then I've also sourced turkeys too. Despite a bit of self-deprecation about it being a 'wonder horse' and 'le machino' I had no idea that it wouldn't join the likes of Minted and Democrat and turn into a pumpkin. They all ran fast times and failed to build on them, Meandre has at least followed up (so far)

The price was allowed to go 999/1 for a couple of quid but that could have been chucking money away. The horse could have been injured for all I knew. It's top price with a degree of liquidity kicking round was about 550/1 but these went a few hours before the decision to supplement for the Grand Prix was announced. If I'd known of the intention to supplement I might have been persuaded to take them, but there was no way I would have known. Fabre doesn't tell me, and the UK racing media don't cover it.

No bookmaker would give you the kind of price available on the exchanges anyway. They tend to quote anywhere between 33/1 to 25/1 as a stock price, which is actually a good illustration of this idea you said that it's about beating the bookies etc. Clearly in this case its about beating fellow punters, the bookie is just a broker who you choose or otherwise to trade through. They wouldn't have the liabilities on the horse to justify a demand led cut in its price and certainly on book like the Arc which will have millions in it by race time.

Even though today it might look a good bet, but lets keep it in context. It has to stay fit. The stable has to retain its form. He has a prep race to get through where he's taking on Pour Moi, and even then he's still got to win (or place) in the race itself. It's hardly as if the money's in the bank guaranteed. I honestly wouldn't worry about final furlong as a racing forum, (it isn't one) and I doubt whether anyone other than 2 or 3 people backed it, and only then in the Grand Prix. I believe more awareness was built through people taking the idea from here and then circulating onto Talking Horses, (indeed the youtube even had Jamie as the account holder) but that took about 6 weeks to filter through.

I also think the bottom-line is that if you're going to use fora then people have a moral obligation to contribute in the name of mutuality and co-operation and keeping the place alive, otherwise they die off when the numerically prolific posters decide to leave or are prevented from using them. Unfortunately though, there's plenty of greedy people who sit around and selfishly try and take something for nothing, and this probably accounts for why we live in such a shite world where 'me, me, me' dominates, and stuff everyone else. I've picked up other people's work that has been shared, which I'm sure I wouldn't have benefited from otherwise. I wouldn't have considered Hollins recently at Goodwood until the case was made on here, so that's part and parcel of the deal, and there was no evidence that the price collapsed because it was posted on OHR. If a forum gets reputation for secrecy then it slowly stops to function anyway as a betting aide (International Trade theory and protectionism in an economic context). The pool of people likely to come into information like this (in fact information is the wrong word - opinion would be more accurate) is pretty limited, and only 5% would consider backing a horse on my suggestion anyway. You can pretty well see the evolution of the idea on the thread in question. It was very much a work in progress where I flagged the performance, poured a bit of cold water on it, and then got more interested in it. There was no evidence during this period that the lurking raptors had devoured the price whilst we were talking it through. From the movement I remember there was a fair chance that myself and Jamie (between 350 and 250) were the first people aboard. The price subsequently went bigger (which who knows?) might have been the result of me saying the Prix du Lys was the next target and the horse missed it? It's possible that my flagging the horse in cyberspace had inadvertently ramped the price, but since I'd taken my eye off the ball, I hadn't noticed it. In any event I would have been backing it blind then without knowing why it missed the Prix du Lys or whether it would turn up on Bastille Day at Longchamp. I'd have backed it at 550 if I knew the intention was to supplement for the Grand Prix, but I simply wasn't in possession of that information when those prices were taken

[broadsword]

Firstly potential problems at broadsword manor haven't materialised and things are looking a whole lot brighter so in some way shape or form I'm back

Secondly ATO, when you included my name amongst those who have a good understanding of the subject of speed rating you were very much mistaken I basically learned how to rate a card and gave up That is of course if I am the Broadswood that you refer to? as of course I'd be broadsword something which you have never seemed to get a handle on not that I mind I'm just curious if there is a Broadswood out there who I'm not aware of who's a bit shrewder than I

Brilliant discussion lads I was sort of thinking that Chris was basically right with everything and then reading spooks last post which not only included a great assement of the meandre bet before the hindsight set in, also summed up the OHR way perfectly.

Chris is what I'd call thoroughly professional and business minded and I'd hazard a guess without seeing anyones balance sheets that he's probably making the most money of anyone on the forum so in that context everything he says is justified.A point he's made there aswell which I think is important is what you actually do with the money you've made. I'm surprised how many punters spends hours up on hours trying to make money punting horses and seem oblivious to the ways of making money with the money they've made.

As a quickfire question if lets say as a pro punter (I'd have no idea so I may be way off the mark) you make a 10% profit of your turnover anually.. If someone came and said to you give me your money and they'd guarentee a 10% return and may possibly make you 15% would you accept they're offer and never punt again ? The worrying thing is for me is that I wouldn't. Remembering ,despite a good year, I'd class myself as an improver from loser to hoverer and in no way profitable over the long term.

I actually think with gambling the fun is in the chase and the day I actually smash the granny out of them will be a sad and solemn moment where I'll be left wondering "now what".

Much like fishing as a kid I always remember being about 8yo losing a carp that in reality was probably just shy of 20 pounds (I'd have said the in the region of the british record at the time) back then that was a humungous fish and unlike todays commercially stocked fisheries where kids catching 20's is no big deal, back then on the tackle we were using and the places where we fished, it would have been a fishing acheivement that would have been up there with the best angling heroics ever produced. Since that I went on to catch speciemens of all sorts, win matches, fish nationals,embassy pairs with one of englands finest and catch fish that well excedeed that possible 20 pounder. However, my favourite memory will always be that one that got away and in truth once I actually figured I could pretty much catch what ever I set to seek I got bored gave it up and haven't partaken in what used to be an obsession since.I hope that day never arrives with horse racing.

I rather be poor together than rich alone

[CPGagie]

I wouldnt say that, Broadsword. I would say that I'm perhaps the most apathetic member towards horse racing. I have no more emotion when Frankel runs as trying to figure out a 0-75 at Wolverhampton. They're just horses running around a field to me. I dont know if that helps or hinders me. I used to get passionate back in the days of Bosra Sham etc, and did ok then, so I guess I've just ended up this way and it makes no difference. I can tell you right now, if I was single again, I'd be back to the winning/party scenario, though maybe not as intensely as earlier in my life. So please dont think I have some great business mind. I keep a record of everything I do, and dont kid myself that things are better than they are, but thats about it.

"As a quickfire question if lets say as a pro punter (I'd have no idea so I may be way off the mark) you make a 10% profit of your turnover anually.. If someone came and said to you give me your money and they'd guarentee a 10% return and may possibly make you 15% would you accept they're offer and never punt again ? The worrying thing is for me is that I wouldn't. Remembering ,despite a good year, I'd class myself as an improver from loser to hoverer and in no way profitable over the long term."

There is a difference between 'turnover' and 'outlay'.

Lets say you have 10k for example. Your investor buddy, will give you 11K back at the end of the year, for a 1k profit. However 10% on turnover would depend on how many times you turned that 10K over during the year. At 200 x £500 bets, you've played (turned over) 100K with just an original outlay of 10K. You've turned over your 10K ten times. So 10% on turnover would be 10K profit, but the investor buddy only gives you 1K profit for 10% return on outlay.

People wouldnt bother playing if the goal was 10% return on outlay. It would take a decade to double up. Compounded 7.2 years. Which is also why I think the 5% staking method is the best to stand by. It gets you to a point anyway (the point of having to take shorter prices if you want to play).

I'd also say that if you're billionaire, there's still things to do. You could stop right now if you wished, but you want to continue with the thrill of the chase, why would you think it different for the billionaire? They're probably more full on than you and i will ever be, and thats why they have what they have. Of course there is the silver spoon brigade, and no doubt most of them have criminal tendancies to have got where they are..... even so though, just because you get to X point financially, doesnt mean its pipe and slippers time.

[Spook]

Originally Posted by CPGagie

I wouldnt say that, Broadsword. I would say that I'm perhaps the most apathetic member towards horse racing. I have no more emotion when Frankel runs as trying to figure out a 0-75 at Wolverhampton. They're just horses running around a field to me.

I think that's probably a sensible way of trying to treat the proposition. I think you're better off trying to stay dispassionate where possible

[broadsword]

I'd agree with that Spook I think if you just literally treat it as a numbers game with no real interest in the racing its definatley a help. Many a time in racing I've tried to make a case for a horse more because I want it to win either because its a horse who I think has deserved a big success after having a lot of bad luck, or that I want the trainer/Jockey to win the particular prize or some other daft reason of sentiment.

But with what Chris said about he dosen't mind what race it is be it a claimer around Wolvo or a top class race I couldn't be like that.I used to be quite happy betting on anything however my favourite sentence after backing at the likes of Southwell or low class races pretty much anywhere was what the hell am I backing on this shit for.I've found myself to have more success on higher class racing and I also gain enjoyment of watching the big meets.I'm like a kid at Christmas the night before Cheltenham,Aintree,The hennesey meet,Christmas at kempton and although I hate to admit it even more so Royal Ascot and some of the other big flat meets.Chris is right from a making money point of view it shouldn't matter but to me I enjoy the big meets if I wanted to make money and not enjoy it quite simply I'd go to work.It softens the blow when I lose aswell because I don't feel I've wasted the day when I've enjoyed the spectacle of real competetive top class stuff.

I understood turnover mate but didn't really think the comparison through properly but 10% on turnover would be pretty healthy yes ? The actual scenario I was contemplating Chris was a person already having say the £100k in the bank and turning that over at £500 a bet rather than carrying a small bank roll of 10k and playing that through 10 times so given to the investor that you'd still get your 10k.Your bank roll always seems small to me but obviously that pays tribute to your confidence as a punter.Obviously £100k and £500 a bet is 0.5% of the bank but I'd belive that there would be punters who operate on that basis but more likely punters who take the same approach to finding winners as Spook.As you've said though Chris its punters with that aprroach are probably making headway at a lot slower pace than someone with your 5% approach.

Like I say I'm pretty blind in this area mate as I'm not doing it myself

[CPGagie]

You dont need to put all your eggs in one basket. Every now and again you can put a couple of dozen to one side. You'll have no choice soon enough anyway, as the odds wont be there. Even if you and a runner were hitting shops, you'd hit a limit.

5% is the best way to build up imo. I'd reckon on a double up every 8 weeks or so, assuming you're working hard and you're disciplined enough.

Why dont you try it on paper BS. Start with a fictional amount, call 5% of that your minimum stake and see what happens.

[broadsword]

To be fair I couldn't realistically do it mate.In all honesty I made an amount of cash over the last year some through saving regular amount through my wages and more than that off a few good winners I've had throughout the year I won't go into to much detail but the amount is just into 5 figures.I've never seen that amount of cash built up as I love to spend my cash. For a long time I've been a loser and over perhaps the last couple of years I've maybe hovered, with the best year of my gambling life since last November (which for the moment I'll still put down to more luck than judgement and more than a little help from spook along the way).I had a decision to make once I'd built up the cash did I have a real good go at it or did I play safe and start again? Needless to say my goolies went missing and I tucked the whole lot out of harms way and I'm back to punting out of my wages out of which there are basically pennies left at the moment.Me and the Mrs are trying to get to buying a house together instead of renting and at somepoint I've gotta grow up as as this old bod ain't going to last doing the collar I'm doing.


I couldn't seriously dedicate the time to it that you need to have a serious crack at it.In truth I also lack the discipline, I love a gamble and I love a bit of action.I'm also a great believer in sods law and believe I could paper test until the dawn of time winning fortunes in Monopoly money but as soon as I laid any cash down the wheels would come off.Hopefully this year will go aswell as last year or at worst I'll break even In an ideal world If I could put the same amount away as I have done this year every year that would most definatley do me. Not going to do much for the rest of the flat season as I've always found things go a little bit funky towards the end of the season.I am though when the jumps returns going to at least make the effort to be a bit more disciplined as last year although profitable I felt I made so many mistakes it was untrue.I'll see what cash I can get together between now and then and see how we go.Hopefully, time allowing I'll try and post everything up and you can see how I get on this year

Don't get me wrong mate it'd be an absolute dream to have a crack at punting full time but until I can get rid of the beast in me and whilst I've got a partner and a bab to think about it ain't going to happen