Novice/maiden hurdles

[jon a]

Hello,good looking site

Been trialing speed ratings in novice hurdles for a few seasons.horses producing good figures on the flat converting that to hurdles

[Spook]

One of my favourite subjects (apart from staying hurdlers).

There certainly used to be a correlation between O/R's earned on the flat and success in the Triumph Hurdle, and since the advent of the Fred Winter this has become even more pronounced as horses that tend to be competitive in the two races are normally about 15Ibs different.

The thing I've always been interested in is the Supreme and how we make slow timed winners who sprint off a modest pace and win with a visually impressive display favourites for the Cheltenham Grade 1. This race is normally always run at a true test and yet we continually back horses who've frequently failed to advertise their ability to cope with such demands based on a performance which will often bear little resemblance to what they're going to be asked to do at Cheltenham

I've long felt that the championship 2 mile races are much more about stamina than is often imagined. Or to put it another way;

Most horses at this level are capable of producing very similar top speeds but there are two things that differentiate them from a performance perspective.

1: The time it takes them to reach that speed (acceleration in any other language)
2: The duration they can sustain that speed for (stamina in other language)

The first type of race is the 'jog and sprint' affair and a lot of horses that win under these conditions (frequently with eye catching bursts of acceleration) find they're struggling when they're suddenly asked to run this kind of pace from tapes to post for the first time. Menorah was a classic example. When he was subjected to a strong pace in the Kempton novice race he won against the jog and sprint favourite Bellvano who was odds on I think having recorded some visually impressive slow times. Bellvano was simply taken off his feet though when asked to sustain that kind of speed for a prolonged period. In his next race Menorah was beaten off a muddling pace at Ascot and came second having been tapped for toe. When he lined up for the Supreme he got the fast pace again that allowed him to bring stamina into play and won. Having won a fast race, you would be confident that he'd be able to move into open company as stamina is normally a factor on the apex of grade 1 races. The three slowest Supremes I've got records for (false pace/ jog and sprints) also happen to have been won by horses that failed to make any impression in open company (Ebaziyan, Noland and Salsaulito Bay).

Indeed we might have seen another example of this over the festive period at Leopardstown when the odds on fav Sous Les Cieux who had previously won races with TS and RPR differentials of 94 and 17 has been beaten? I haven't seen a TS for the race, but if its in excess of 140 then they'd be some grounds to think this is another well fancied horse that's been found out for stamina when they were required to keep the hammer down

The second type of horse is the one I'd rather side with, albeit my own record in the Supreme is poor but this is due to some extent to bad luck and bad punting though

I feel the biggest problem this race throws up though is the lack of data as many Supreme candidates are typically unexposed. Identifying a horse that's demonstrated an ability to hit the kind of figures we want isn't too hard, but that's all you're doing. Essentially you're siding with a degree of 'proven' over 'potential'. Just because a horse hasn't run the strong paced kind of time and demonstrated their ability to handle these conditions, doesn't mean that they won't oblige the first time they're asked to. Horses like Brave Inca and Moscow Flyer were buggers for doing this. To this end therefore I've never really got my head round how to identify 'latent' ability and this has led me into the likes Straw Bear in the past who i was pretty confident would beat Sweet Wake. In fact he'd have won the race if McCoy hadn't cocked the last hurdle up so badly.

[jon a]

Very well put Spook.Obviously not that much to work with so tend to stick with the top figures lto.As we know a 75+ rated horse flat horses have an excellant chance if the stamina is there in the breeding and also a good stat is the stable change
For instance Prankster yesterday at doncaster Bowen purchased this listed horse from the Fabre stable,had nt run for 844 days and this was a run out.Be interested to see the figure ran

2-20 Taunton..Rowan Tiger won very well lto and has been crying out for a decent jockey booking.This was supposed to go on in at Leicester at 7s,but Pheonix had the stamina and ironically Pheonix Flights pilot was McCoy
Grumeti the michael bell former bay gelding makes his debut for the Alan king yard an 84 rated flat horse
New Christmas first run from meehan yard 554 day lay off
Dukes art first run for David pipe and a solid class 4 flat horse,German import Home Run has scraps of form but the jockey booking is telling us not today
Teds Spread nicholls from Mark Thomkins ran in ebor and is out of Beat hollow which ouses class.As we know Thompkins nags have the stamina and the lto figure stands up.Battlecry 2nd lto but clear 4 1/2 lengths so the danger horse for me

Selection TED SPREAD

Danger Battlecry

[Spook]

I remember describing Teds Spread on here as being little more than a 0-80 handicapper and suggesting that he'd be better suited by the Supreme Novice Hurdle when some people were considering backing him for the Leger I think it was. Of the flat recruits I suspect Distant Memories is likely to prove the more useful but then there's been quite a few who've flopped (Percussionist came 3rd in a Derby) whereas others like Istabraq were only rated 84 but went on to dominate. It could be interesting to see what happens to them now, as the biggest purchaser was probably Graham Wylie who would then handicap them by sending them to Magic Johnson. If he continues his policy of buying ex-Prescott or other top flat horses and sending them to Paul Nicholls we could get a different picture emerge

[jon a]

Ayr

12-20 Nuts and Bolts 11/8 (87)

12-55 Guess Again 11/4 (61)

Cork

2-10 Sir Harry Cash 20/1 e/w

Plumpton

12-40 Songsmith (78) 14/1 e/w

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

Ayr 12-20 Nuts and Bolts 11/8 (87) won 12-55 Guess Again 11/4 (61) 2nd Cork 2-10 Sir Harry Cash 20/1 e/w n/r Plumpton 12-40 Songsmith (78) 14/1 e/w n/r

1 winner,2nd and 2 non-runners

[jon a]

12-30 Huntingdon Joseph lister has the best figures in this and is reflected in the price.No bet

[jon a]

No big odds today


2-35 sandown Prospect wells (88) 7/4

11-50 Newcastle Micro Mission (51) 7/4

2-10 Thurles Jack Bean (93) 11/8

1-20 wincanton Harry topper (73) 11/8

[jon a]

1-40 Taunton Night Rose (71) 7/4

2-40 Taunton Jump City (83) 5/2

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

1-40 Taunton Night Rose (71) 7/4 Taunton 1.40 1st 6 Lights Of Broadway (IRE) 200-1 2nd 13 Wishes And Stars (IRE) 50-1 3rd 5 Fortuna Rose 33-1 SF £3484.82 2-40 Taunton Jump City (83) 5/2

big prices

[jon a]

1-05 Doncaster Vimiero (61) s/p

[jon a]

Need to get back on the score sheet with this,not touching nags under s/r 70


Catterick

12-45 king of celts (86) 4/1

1-45 cry of freedom (76) 11/4

Fontwell

2-05 kings realm (86)11/2

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

Need to get back on the score sheet with this,not touching nags under s/r 70 Catterick 12-45 king of celts (86) 4/1 1-45 cry of freedom (76) 11/4 Fontwell 2-05 kings realm (86)11/2

1-45 cry of freedom (76) 11/4 UR will go in the book


2-05 kings realm (86)11/2 Pulled Up

[jon a]

1-40 Kempton Captain Sunshine(76) evens ..no bet

12-40 Wetherby Bar de Ligne (78) 9/4

3-05 Warwick Castle Conflict (90) 14/1 e/w

3-00 Punchestown Joxer (73) 5/2

[jon a]

2-05 Newbury Polar brook (77) 16/1

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

1-45 cry of freedom (76) 11/4 UR will go in the book 2-05 kings realm (86)11/2 Pulled Up

Date Course Dist Class Jockey Trainer
13:50 Thu 19th Jan Taunton 2m 1f 3 Jack Quinlan J P Ferguson

[jon a]

3-40 Ludlow Lady Everywhere 6/1

1-20 Taunton Sunglasses 9/1

1-50 Taunton If you let me finish 2/1

3-05 Thurles Argocat 3/1

[jon a]

4-20 Ascot Be all man (77)8/1

2-15 Naas Dylan Ross (101) 15/8

[jon a]

Why is it when you decide to share the results they go pear shaped?
Anyway going to do a bank from now on 2pt win 6/1 and under and 1pt e/w above

12-50 Fairyhouse Kennoway (70) 33/1 sportingbet

1-20 Fairyhouse Espresso Lady (96) 28/1 bet365

2-55 Fairyhouse Caolaneoin (83) 11/8 bet365

2-40 Towcester Miss Millbourne (79) 13/8 bet365

1-30 Market Rasen Cross of honour (85) 7/4 ladbrokes

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

Why is it when you decide to share the results they go pear shaped? Anyway going to do a bank from now on 2pt win 6/1 and under and 1pt e/w above 12-50 Fairyhouse Kennoway (70) 33/1 sportingbet. 4th 1-20 Fairyhouse Espresso Lady (96) 28/1 bet365 3rd 2-55 Fairyhouse Caolaneoin (83) 11/8 bet365 won 2-40 Towcester Miss Millbourne (79) 13/8 bet365 won 1-30 Market Rasen Cross of honour (85) 7/4 ladbrokes. 2nd

Bank 6.60

[jon a]

3-15 wetherby Ashbrittle (73) no bet

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

3-15 wetherby Ashbrittle (73) no bet

Plenty of mistakes and im sure Pipe will rectify them,very difficult course Wetherby an acquired taste

[jon a]

No bet today two qualify but not strong enough figures to match the low price

Leicester 1-35 Tarn Hows (34)(81)

2-40 Tempest river (73)

[jon a]

2-00 Hereford SaInglend (86) 11/2

1-00 limerick Tellherimnothere (91) 7/2

1-35 limerick Pageturner (92) 7/2

[jon a]

Originally Posted by jon a

2-00 Hereford SaInglend (86) 11/2 1-05 limerick Tellherimnothere (91) 7/2 prominent, brought down 1-35 limerick Pageturner (92) 7/2

Tellherimnothere (91) in notebook

BANK 24.60pts