Nottingham - 10th October

[The Duke]

This is copied from a post I made on Sunday before the board went down and changed servers. Appears to have been lost in the backup, so here's a repost.

One horse has jumped out at me on the Nottingham card on October 10th. The horse in question is TAJAAWEED of Sir Michael Stoute who clocked a serious time on his debut run. (One I'd also pointed out to Spook a week ago).

He hung left when making his effort, and showed distinct signs of greeness in the process, so you'd like to think there's a modicum of improvement to come. I have Tajaaweed rated to 91.12+ for that effort, and I'd wage on him improving around 3L for that debut effort, probably more.

Nick Mordin also has a view on Tajaaweed...

Quote:

TAJAAWEED A SOLID DERBY PROSPECT TAJAAWEED (35) clocked a very good time for a two year old making its racecourse debut over a mile when winning at Nottingham. He is undoubtedly a Group class horse and looks one of the best prospects we've seen for next year's Derby so far. Tajaaweed, is a big, strong tall, mature, good-bodied, handsome horse who looks sure to develop into a middle-distance runner. He was always moving well but only began to look really impressive in the last furlong when his obvious stamina came into play on the soft ground. He simply powered away full of run, despite running green and drifting towards the rail when clear (something most inexperienced horses have a tendency to do). If the ground comes up soft for the Racing Post Trophy I would consider Tajaaweed carefully. He could easily be a Group 1 horse. The only question I have about him right now is whether he can act on fast going. Certainly at a mile I'd say he needs cut in the ground to make a race enough of a stamina test for him.

I've snapped up the 33's about for the Derby, and there's still some of that available.

Is entered for the RP Trophy on Saturday, and he's 12/1 with PaddyPower and BlueSQ, I've snaffled some of what I believe to be a huge price and should more than cover my Derby bet. He's also worth forecasting with Ibn Khaldun.

Tajaaweed is one to watch though, he looks smart.

[Bally]

I have him to a similar figure (Slightly higher at 92.01) and have backed him for The Derby & Racing Post Trophy @ 33/1 @ 12/1 accordingly.

My worry is the jockey and its as simple as that. Im also going to forecast it with Ibn Khaldun myself on the Ratings i think it could develop into a match although im worried about his jockey also.

[The Duke]

Shrewd move Bally, although Confront isn't out of it by any shake of the stick but Ascot this year have been a right pain in the arse to rate off. Im not overly confident of the rating I hold for Confront, but he got pretty much the run of the race anyway, and would need to improve a further few lengths to trouble Ibn Khaldun and Tajaaweed after the latters expected improvement between runs.

[Thommo]

Tell me, how does speed ratings really matter over a 12 furlong race? Afterall every race is run differently, slower pace, faster pace etc. You can get a faster run claimer than a Group 1 contest so I don't understand it????

[Bally]

Originally Posted by The Duke

Shrewd move Bally, although Confront isn't out of it by any shake of the stick but Ascot this year have been a right pain in the arse to rate off. Im not overly confident of the rating I hold for Confront, but he got pretty much the run of the race anyway, and would need to improve a further few lengths to trouble Ibn Khaldun and Tajaaweed after the latters expected improvement between runs.

Yup, Ascot's ground is a total cock up on the straight track anyhow. If the going description is Heavy, It usually means its Good To Firm. Good Ground means its Hard.

[The Duke]

Thommo, speed ratings can be used over any distance, any code be it flat or jump racing.

The thing with speed-ratings is, along with the raw time of the race, you also get a set of class-pars which you add or deduct from the figures depending on how the ground is riding.

I have to say it's the most accurate method at judging a horse's true ability that I've found/used, and it's proved very successful over the summer months. That said Speed Ratings are not the be all and end all, you also need a good knowledge of the formbook and abit of dosage always helps.

Based on his profile, it would suggest 10F is the minimum trip for Tajaaweed next year, and he's more than capable of getting the Derby trip.

[Spook]

If you look at the race times at Nottingham there's an immediate clue that something's amiss.

6F = -1.41
5F = -1.71
5F = -1.90
8F = -5.02
8F = -8.18
10F = -8.45
10F = -10.30
10F = -8.73

Now clearly that's half cocked, and you'd need to convert them to a standard distance to make some sense of it, and introduce some class pars to make sense. When this is done however, it's abundently clear that the sprint course is riding quite a bit faster than the round course. That the ground was given as Good to Soft tells me this isn't down to watering, as indeed you wouldn't normally expect Notingham to water in October. For Gods sake they barely water in July in the middle of a heatwave!!!

The series of times I've got look very symtomatic of those that you get on a wind affected card, and I suspect this is whats happened. It might be difficult therefore to draw a definitive conclusion about ground preference based on the times, as I think the two courses appear to have been riding very differently. It is also possible that rain might have been falling during racing? I don't know but there is evidence of some incremental slowing, though its not conclusively sequential, so I'd be more inclined to look towards a tailwind blowing down the home straight

[The Duke]

I seem to remember seeing rain falling during Tajaaweed's race, but I haven't checked the ones after. I did note it was nothing more than a light drizzle though and would have done nothing of significance to the slowing of times, so the tailwind is probably the best option.

[Bally]

Quote:

CONFRONT, who had been as short as 7-2 favourite with Ladbrokes for Saturday's Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, will miss the race and will not be seen again until next season. The Nayef colt had stepped up on his debut second at Newbury when beating Stimulation a length in the Hyperion Stakes at Ascot 12 days ago but connections have decided to abandon the bid for Group 1 glory this season. Confront was ridden by Ryan Moore in a spin with Mountgrange Stud contender Almajd and Tajaweed on Long Hill in Newmarket on Wednesday morning and the decision to call a halt on his juvenile campaign was made later in the day. Teddy Grimthorpe, shortly before leaving for Monmouth Park where he oversee Passage Of Time's bid for the Filly & Mareturf as racing manager to Khalid Abdullah, said: “Confront is not going to run in the Racing Post Trophy as we think it might be a bit too soon. That will be it for the season and we hope he will be a very decent horse next year so we have decided to be patient.” Tajaweed, an impressive five-length winner on his debut over a mile at Nottingham 15 days ago, will be Sir Michael Stoute's sole contender for the Group 1 event, which the trainer last won with Dilshaan in 2000. Angus Gold, racing managerto Hamdan Al Maktoum, said: “As far as I know the plan is run Tajaweed at Doncaster and Almajd at Newbury (in the Mountgrange Stud Stakes).” Ibn Khaldun was trimmed to 5-1 (from 6) by Coral on Wednesday, although a further shake up is likely after new of Confront's defection. Peter Chapple-Hyam has taken the race twice with Commander Collins (1998) and Authorized (2006) and is looking to Declaration Of War this time. Barry Hills team will saddle Feared In Flight, a maiden winner atYork before finishing third in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. He was last seen keeping on well to take seventh in the 7f Goffs Million at the Curragh. The trainer's son and assistant Charlie said: "The mile will really suit him on Saturday, although he would probably want a little bit more rain than we have seen, but the track and trip will be ideal. "He has been running in good company most of this year and things have not quite gone his way. "He has not run a bad race and we feel that there is more to come from him. He ran a good race in Ireland and just probably did not have enough pace to go with them that day."

[The Duke]

Tajaaweed just won the Chester Dee Stakes. I'm more than happy with that 33/1 I took last year.

[Spook]

A few years ago Gypsy King won the same race, and yet a check of the stopwatch compared to Kris Kin's 2003 win told us that Gypsy King (despite being sent off fav at Epsom) wouldn't place, and was booked for somewhere between 5th and 8th.

This is how we try and do it. The race conditions for the card have hardly altered between 2003 and 2008. That is to say that the distances and conditions are pretty well the same, and since it's run at the same time of year it makes across the generations comparisons much easier to get a handle on. The only thing that have changed of any significance is the going, and it's this that we need to confine our investigation to initially.

What you do is use a horse as a benchmark, and then see how Tajaaweed shapes up against this one. In this case the obvious choice is Kris Kin as he would go onto win the Derby

May 8th 2003

5F, 0-100 = -1.04
10.5F, Gp3, 3yo = -0.11
13.5F, Gp3 = -0.46
7.5F, 0-90 = -1.05
12.5F, 0-80 = -4.89

The opening sprint was an all age race in 2003, but is now restricted to 3yo's. The 0-90 handicap is a 0-100 handicap today, and the 0-80 handicap is a 0-85 now. These changes are slight. I'm slightly concerned about the final handicap being -4.89 slow, as this single race accounts for some 64% of the total time behind standard. Today the corresponding race was 5.01 slow and accounts for 47% of the total, so I've decided to drop it and concentrate on the remaining 4.

2008 2003 difference

-1.63 -1.04 0.59
-1.03 -0.11 0.92 (Dee Stakes)
-0.70 -0.46 0.24
-2.21 -1.05 1.16

Clearly the times in 2003 were quicker. If we add these 4 races togther we get a total -2.66 secs for 2003 and -5.57 secs for 2008. Now because the conditions were the same more or less, we don't necessarily need class pars to get an indication of how Tajaaweed measures up against Kris Kin. In total 36.5F's are sampled for each year, although there are slight flaws in the method given that the winner of the Ormonde stakes contributes 37% to the calculation, where as the sprinter a mere 13%. So long as the races were truly run though (they appear to be) and the methodology is the same, you can draw a crude benchmark

2.66 secs divided by 36.5F's = 0.072
5.57 secs divided by 36.5F's = 0.152

0.152 - 0.072 = 0.08 secs

That is to say the ground was slowing horses up by 0.08 secs per furlong more today, than it was in 2003

10.5F's X 0.08 = 0.84 secs.

That is to say that Tajaaweed needs to be given 0.84 secs back to his time by way of compensation brought about for having to race on more unfavourable ground. Today he was -1.03 slow, which means he would have finished in a time of 0.19 slow in 2003. Kris Kin managed it in 0.11 slow and is a theoretical 0.08 secs faster over complete race distance (about half a length).

We can attempt a another way of doing this by simply dividing the same sample into the number of races

2.66 / 4 = 0.66
5.57 / 4 = 1.39

1.39 - 0.66 = 0.73

This indicates the ground was 0.73 slower today and this can be given back to Tajaaweed.

1.03 - 0.73 = 0.30 secs (about 1.5L's slower than Kris Kin)

Another way of doing it is to draw on something that isn't too far removed from sectional time theory and that involves seeing just what percentage by way of contribution the respective horses made to the overall time from standard.

0.11 / 2.66 X 100 = 4% - Kris Kin
1.03 / 5.57 X 100 = 18% - Tajaaweed

Now this would be a bit more of a worry, although I can't convert this into a measure of superiority by way of lengths etc You might argue that it hints at some slower horses being around in 2003, but I think the answer probably lies with MacArthur's win the Ormonde which was that of Group 1 horse. Having noted earlier therefore that the Ormonde contributes the greatest share to the aggregate totals by way of percentage contribution, it only seems fair to finally level them all off at furlong intervals.

divide the time by the furlongs covered

2003 - 2008

0.208 - 0.326
0.010 - 0.098
0.034 - 0.051
0.140 - 0.294

0.392 - 0.769 divide this lot by 4 and you get 0.098 and 0.192 respectively.

0.192 - 0.098 = 0.094 secs X 10.5F's = 0.987 secs

Now we have a conundrum

1.03 - 0.987 = 0.043 secs which for the first time puts him ahead of Kris Kins 0.11 by 0.07 secs. 0.20 secs is the standard BHA for 1 length (although I use the American 0.17).

For all of those who've lost the will to live by now, I'll try and summarise where Tajaaweed might be.

Somewhere between 1.5L's slower or just short of half a length quicker than Kris Kin. He has to have a chance, although I'd be more inclined to say 3rd place at this stage. In short, the whole analysis is just too close (unlike Gypsy King who came out some 12L's behind). I feel he coudl well be a serious player now. Do Derby winners really debut at Nottingham though?

[andthereoff]

Mind blowing post Spook.