Newmarket

[andthereoff]

Was just wondering how accurate is that 9f start at Newmarket? for a number of years now there has been constant fast times recorded from Notnowcato, Charlie Farnsbarns, Formal Decree, Supasus, Star Of Light, Phoenix Tower, Petara Bay, Tazeez, Redwood and now Rumoush, its not just the Craven meeting.

I am not doubting the quallity of horses running becauses its actually proven to be a informative meeting and maybe the Feilden should be upgraded to Group status?

Maybe im nit picking i dunno

[Retroneous]

If it happens consistently, it would suggest that the standard time is off. Regardless of where the start is, the times should be similar (providing that the start is out by the same amount each time) - so maybe the standards are to cock?

[The Duke]

Yeah the RP standard for 9F is shockingly slower than it ought to be.

[Spook]

It's a peculiar distance. How frequently is it raced at by top horses? How frequently have conditions prevailed on the day to permit a decent time to be run?. I've got a feeling standards are set against the top 10 times. If you only have Gp1 horses racing at 9F's 2 or 3 times a year, compared to God knows how many on the mile or 10F course, then it will be slower. This is made even worse by the fact that horses are getting faster over time, so some of the historical ratings will be just that - dated. If you haven't got the throughput of new horses to set the standards then it's reasonably easy to explain. Perhaps they should use the runners up in some of the races to supplement it? Having said that, it would be one of the easier standards to revise by simply using the 8F and 10F times, given that the straight on the Rowley Mile is 10F's long, so the corrupting influence of bends aren't in play. A mid-point between the two should be more accurate, although you should set it at 48.5% - 49% of the difference

[Retroneous]

I make it 87 races since 1994, 58 that I have classes for (i.e. all since 2000)

Dunno if this helps anyone, but here are the winning times since then, classes included.

C 115.14
C 114.90
B 112.91
A 117.44
A 109.66
A 109.40
A 111.49
B 107.28
A 110.52
A 112.58
A 113.59
B 111.05
A 113.87
A 114.44
A 113.28
A 113.81
B 108.11
A 111.60
A 112.77
A 113.89
A 110.65
B1 109.80
A1 114.96
1 109.10
1 111.81
2 107.70
1 108.78
2 111.49
1 113.38
1 109.21
1 113.35
1 114.24
2 110.26
2 112.79
1 113.69
1 109.76
1 107.26
1 109.98
2 109.10
4 112.59
2 109.81
1 112.38
1 114.15
1 114.11
1 115.00
2 111.73
4 112.81
2 107.66
1 107.78
1 112.73
1 107.83
2 110.17
1 107.98
4 113.28
2 107.48
1 109.55
1 111.98
1 109.33

[andthereoff]

Add Ransom Note to that list of fast times over 9f today at Newmarket.

I just get rid of the 9f time and the slowest time on the card now for a more accurate reading.

[Natagora]

I had my suspicions about this distance at Newmarket too, it does keep throwing up quick horses. I'm going to watch a few races back and hand time them, could be they have the beam in the wrong place or something? Happens in France and Ireland on an alarmingly regular basis so could happen here.

In defending the standard though, it is a distance that has a lot of quality horses running over, indeed the average class of race ran over 1m1f is between 1 and 2, nothing below class 2 runs over this trip.

For what it's worth, I have the standard time of 108.4s so very close to the RP standard.

[andthereoff]

Originally Posted by Natagora

I had my suspicions about this distance at Newmarket too, it does keep throwing up quick horses. I'm going to watch a few races back and hand time them, could be they have the beam in the wrong place or something? Happens in France and Ireland on an alarmingly regular basis so could happen here. In defending the standard though, it is a distance that has a lot of quality horses running over, indeed the average class of race ran over 1m1f is between 1 and 2, nothing below class 2 runs over this trip. For what it's worth, I have the standard time of 108.4s so very close to the RP standard.

Hmmm good thinking, I think i'll join you in hand rating a few times myself!

Think RP get a lot of stick for their standard times by those more hardend speed rating fans - tried being "different" and getting "pin point" accuracy, hard work with the difference being so minimal and not worth it as you rarely flag up anything different and when you do it's probably not that valuable in the long run.

I do agree with you that the Irish and French times on the RP are a little dodgy to say the least but then again Irish racing is bent to the core whilst 75% of what comes out the big yards is going to be pretty useful anyway.

[Natagora]

To be fair, it's not the RPs fault regarding French and Irish times, it's the tracks that can't time properly! Some of them are a joke.

The RP Standards are ok but only that, if you want to go beyond the average punter on the street, you need to compile your own data to have that little edge imo.

[andthereoff]

All the 9f times since 1994

116.82 Del Deya (IRE)
119.83 Cicerao (IRE)
112.01 Halling (USA)
110.63 Desert Shot
113.45 Broughton Singer (IRE)
108.73 Desert Shot
108.53 Munwar
110.23 Restructure (IRE)
111.71 Shining Example
110.71 Cap Juluca (IRE)
107.96 Luso
109.48 Storm Trooper (USA)
108.54 Clifton Fox
112.60 Whispering Dawn
111.91 Tarawa (IRE)
110.46 Ali-Royal (IRE)
110.57 Fahris (IRE)
111.81 Balalaika
115.43 Fahris (IRE)
114.34 Tipperary Sunset (IRE)
109.43 Pasternak
118.49 Apprehension
118.92 Border Arrow
116.46 Yabint El Sultan
110.45 Haami (USA)
111.89 Lear Spear (USA)
115.35 Marske Machine
115.14 Pawn Broker
113.29 Cape Grace (IRE)
113.87 Albarahin (USA)
111.05 Katy Nowaitee
115.29 Olden Times
113.28 Cayman Sunset (IRE)
112.91 I Cried For You (IRE)
117.44 Right Wing (IRE)
109.66 Indian Creek
109.40 Playapart (USA)
111.49 Tarfshi
110.52 Golden Silca
107.28 Beauchamp Pilot
112.58 Olden Times
113.59 Magistretti (USA)
113.81 Aldora
111.60 Far Lane (USA)
108.11 Chivalry
112.77 Gateman
113.89 Gold History (USA)
114.96 Autumn Glory (IRE)
109.80 Spanish Don
109.10 Norse Dancer (IRE)
111.81 Rocamadour
111.49 Blue Monday
113.38 Enforcer
109.21 Notnowcato
113.35 Atlantic Waves (IRE)
110.26 Star of Light
114.24 Violet Park
112.79 Formal Decree (GER)
113.69 Stage Gift (IRE)
109.76 Petara Bay (IRE)
107.26 Manduro (GER)
109.98 Echelon
109.10 Supaseus
112.38 Windsor Knot (IRE)
112.59 Stubbs Art (IRE)
114.15 Campanologist (USA)
114.11 Phoenix Tower (USA)
115.00 Heaven Sent
111.73 Proponent (IRE)
112.81 Oasis Knight (IRE)
107.78 Charlie Farnsbarns (IRE)
107.66 Tazeez (USA)
112.73 Redwood
107.83 Tazeez (USA)
107.98 Heaven Sent
110.17 Confront
113.28 Lethal Combination (USA)
109.55 Steele Tango (USA)
107.48 Supaseus
111.98 Rumoush (USA)
109.33 Sri Putra
110.15 Tartan Gigha (IRE)
114.03 Strawberrydaiquiri
112.21 Liberty Cap (USA)
117.37 Sarrsar
109.74 Tazeez (USA)
113.87 Credit Swap

Having taken out 4 Nurserys and anything run on Good to Soft on worse I see a Median and Average of;

Median - 110.57s
Average - 110.92s
RP Standard 108.10