Newbury - 16th April

[The Duke]

Some very interesting times have emerged from this meeting on Friday 16th April.

First of all the sprint and round course look totally different in regards to times (other than Satwa Laird) which makes me think that the conditions race was run at a slow gallop, and the two maidens feature average horses.

Quote:

GOING: GOOD (Good to soft in places on round course; GoingStick 7.5) (The rails have been moved out wide so the Round course is 30m longer).

Satwa Laird who has been beaten in selling and claiming company on the all-weather has clocked a pattern class time with the round course rated alone. I am not happy with this, so have decided to drop the slow run round course races and keep Satwa Laird in with the sprint course bringing out a figure of 82, which I'm more happy about.

However, Blue Jack has ran a Group 1 time running 6 seconds fast in the 5F handicap. Campaigned for Willie Muir last year in blinkers he rose steadily through the weights winning a few nice prizes. He was sold in October and bought by Michael Owen and Andrew Black and transferred to Tom Dascombe. They didn't apply the blinkers on Blue Jack for this outing but he has absolutely flown, and won it very easily aswell.

Last year we had the later ill-fated Chief Editor rise to promise winning this clocking a Group 1 time. Unfortunately we never got to unlock that potential as he died of a heart attack in his very next race (sad). The form worked out like this however....

2nd - Sohraab / Won handicap off 1lb higher, and placed in two Listed races (tricky ride).
3rd - Fullandby / Took a while to win with but eventually won a handicap followed by a Listed race.
4th - Sonny Red / Won an Ascot handicap off 1lb lower.
5th - Cheveton / Placed in conditions race and won a Haydock handicap.
9th - Crimson Fern / Listed placed nto
10th - Cake / Won Goodwood handicap next time out.

This quite probably suggests that this race doesn't really throw up Group 1 winners despite the fast times but Blue Jack has plenty of room to manoeuvre given he won this off 97 and from what I've read heads to Chester next where he should be an absolute mortal lock.

Finally I have the Variance for the straight course riding at around +2.52 which is verging on the side of Good-to-firm which is interesting ahead of tomorrow.

[andthereoff]

Top post Jamie,

Have you got the final 3f for Klammer and Blue Jack, I have recorded it 3 times because I still can't believe the difference.

Blue Jack (8-6)

25.199 34.264
25.155 34.330
25.026 34.334

Klammer (9-3)

26.512 35.024
26.401 35.064
26.317 35.137

I'll take the median number,

Blue Jack - 25.155 34.330
Klammer - 26.401 35.064

First 2 furlongs Klammer has run 1.246s slower, final 3f Klammer has run just 0.734s slower, so in total thats 1.98s lost but RP are inclinded to say Klammer is 2.16s slower not so sure myself. Both horses have run similar aswell; being held up of the pace although Klammer was off the bridle understandbly sooner with it being his first run - impressive imo when you consider the wieghts, I like Hannons Royal Exchange aswell to be honest but you know at this stage of the season you're not going to have many stars out although I think we've see a fair few mildy talented horses;

Cape To Rio
Klammer
Royal Exchange
Sammuel Morse
High Award

[givemeabreak]

Again i was a bit taken by the difference in the courses, i have the straight at +2.44 and the round at -0.77 this can't be right can it ?

[Spook]

It's strange for Newbury, and in the absence of a strong wind, it's likely to be rails being moved, or one of those statistically unusual cards where similar slow times coincide with an average one, that suddenly appears fast because of the lie given to it by others (these are almost undetectable) but at least it only buggers up one set of ratings. If you used projection, then it could kick back into loads of others. I've certainly seen examples where the difference is much worse than this, but it would still be wise to split the sample

The other possibility might be kak handed watering

[The Duke]

Blue Jack runs in the Palace House at Newmarket this afternoon.

Will be an acid test for the strength of form.