Natagora - OHR

**Spook** · **05-10-07**, **10:14 PM**

Some of you will be aware that I've been bigging this filly up since mid June when she first ran a speed figure that made my eyes pop out. I was sceptical about this figure as it was simply just too big, since then she's consistantly been hammering out fast times, and has done so again in the Chevelley Park. I suspect she might very well end up as Dave Edwards's 'Timewatch' horse again come Wednesday. Much to my annoyance, I don't appear to have posted the information on this site when she first caught my attention (Longchamp 19th June) so it does look like a bit of unedifying after timing. I suspect Jamie will have snafled her today though? Just for the record, here's my list of 2yo fillies who've broken the 90 barrier this season;

Natagora = 105.13?
Jane Blue = 101.44?
Natagora = 98.41
Fleeting Spirit = 97.91
Natagora = 94.82
Proviso = 94.08
Laureldean Gale = 93.58
Fleeting Spirit = 93.41
Natagora = 93.11
Listen = 93.05
Fashion Rocks = 92.64
Fleeting Spirit = 92.29
Natagora = 90.90
N'joom Dubai = 90.88
Saorise Abu = 90.17

That Natagora has recorded 4 of the fastest 10 times is pretty unique in my limited experience

**The Duke** · **06-10-07**, **09:05 PM**

Yes I snaffled the value prices about Natagora and dipped in with a tasty forecast to boot.

Link to Spook's Natagora Original Posting

**The Duke** · **08-10-07**, **06:11 PM**

I have Natagora rated to 99.10 with the inclusion of River Proud, and 98.21 without. I'm inclined to leave River Proud in the lineup of variance calculation as I feel Natagora has run to about 99, which is only a head or so off the figure you've calculated.

Bear in mind I'm using slightly altered Class Par's and my sheet rounds them up to 2DP.

Check out Longchamp 7th Oct, for a potential Oaks prospect.

Note the inteference in running she suffered, while travelling like a charm, before getting the split and absolutely powering home making the remainder all look pedestrian. YouTube - PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC (Gr1) 07/10/07 - ZARKAVA

**Spook** · **08-10-07**, **11:21 PM**

Speed rating horses has put us on to some good prospects early (Teofilo, Rail Link & Natagora), on other occasions we’ve been late in that all we’ve done is find a performance at the same time as everyone else and have thus been reduced to reporting its significance, as the price vanished the moment the horse crossed the line. I’m afraid a case of the latter might very well have occurred at Longchamp in the Marcel Bousacc (as indeed it did last year too). In recent years Six Perfections, Divine Proportions and Finscael Beo have prevailed in the 2yo fillies mile, so it’s probably no great insight to throw Zarkava into the mix and nominate her as being likely to follow in some illustrious hoof prints, but follow I believe she will. Prior to Sunday, she’d only won a maiden, but was supplemented for the Bousacc based on sparkling homework. It proved a valuable piece of judgement.

In winning she has run 98.47 which I seem to think is a little bit shy of what Finscael Beo managed (if memory serves me correctly) but this was only her second run, and she met not inconsiderable interference in running before extracting herself from the melee to deliver a crushing blow to your correspondents wallet. I thought Laureldean Gale was definately vulnerable at the price and had resolved to back Conference Call. Having made all and seemingly fought off Mad About You in the final furlong without showing any signs of weakening I was starting to count my money, when Zarkava appeared from nowhere full of running and ultimately delivered a decisive blow.

This looks like it’s the best 2yo fillies race of the season to date and the form deserves the utmost respect. If Zarkava has run 98.47, then Conference Call’s gone in at 95.97 and Mad About You 94.47. The winner is the only filly I’ve found this year who looks to be up to laying down a challenge to Natagora, though I expect Listen to progress from her mark of 93.05. The runner up is trained by Pascal Bary which had me looking in two directions. His record in the race is second to none, yet was it ever likely that he had in Conference Call and Natagora the two best 2yo fillies at the same time? I don’t know, but being a May foal I’d be surprised if the runner up featured prominently in the early 2008 exchanges.

This race was kind of billed as Laureldean Gale against 3 smart Frenchies. Sure enough 2 of the French horses came past the line first. The betting suggests however, that the third was not without support, and given that the winner and runner up confirmed this expectation I’d suggest keeping a shrewd eye out for Gipson Dessert, who burst the gates and was withdrawn. I seem to think that Gipson was the foremost on the PMU, where as UK industry had made Conference Call second favourite. If you’re looking for some ante post value, and don’t mind taking a bit of a blind leap of faith Gipson Dessert might be the forgotten horse to take out of the race (if it’s possible to take one out that didn’t run). If the PMU had been vindicated on a race of this calibre with its second and third choices finishing first and second, and doing so on merit with a useful Dermot Weld yardstick back in third, (Mad About You had finished 3rd in the Moyglare just 0.5L’s behind Listen when encountering interference in running) is it really that fanciful to draw a conclusion about Gipson Dessert? She did after all beat Blue Chagall LTO who went on to subsequently win a Gp3, she has form lines with the exposed Salut L’Africain beaten 5L’s to suggest she’s close to Natagora who has beaten the same horse 5.5L’s and 6L’s respectively.

The issue of targets remains a mystery though. Pascal Bary appears to have performed a U turn regarding the possibility of Newmarket for Natagora, that she won the Chevelley Park without ever having been dug into is a clue, but I’d have thought a mile will be right on the edge of what she’s up to with a DI of 2.20 and CD of 0.75. Then again she’s only got 8 dosage points in her profile, so this might not be the best way of assessing her. Zarkava at 1.91 and 0.69 looks more like a Guineas horse, though would also be suited to the Prix Diane. Alain De Roger Dupre trained Darjina of course, and she went the Longchamp route. I wouldn’t be quite so certain as most people are that the Oaks is her natural target. At 2.00 and 0.67 the unquoted Gipson Dessert would be similarly suited to either assignment, and I’d be interested to know what price anyone could get.

**The Duke** · **05-05-08**, **07:40 PM**

We knew Spooky, we knew

IrishToney · **05-05-08**, **09:51 PM**

Originally Posted by The Duke

We knew Spooky, we knew

Lucky it won but good to see speed ratings getting them great results.

Well done Spook and Duke for producing such a masterful system.

**Thommo** · **05-05-08**, **10:36 PM**

Aye just seen this and Id be fuming if I was on that Nahoodh. Richard Hughes would find trouble in a 2 runner race though.

**Spook** · **06-05-08**, **01:03 AM**

I'm reminded of a well worn quote from the world of international espionage and counter terrorism Toney.

"I'd rather have a reputation for being lucky, than one for being good"

05-10-07, 10:14 PM	#1 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Natagora Some of you will be aware that I've been bigging this filly up since mid June when she first ran a speed figure that made my eyes pop out. I was sceptical about this figure as it was simply just too big, since then she's consistantly been hammering out fast times, and has done so again in the Chevelley Park. I suspect she might very well end up as Dave Edwards's 'Timewatch' horse again come Wednesday. Much to my annoyance, I don't appear to have posted the information on this site when she first caught my attention (Longchamp 19th June) so it does look like a bit of unedifying after timing. I suspect Jamie will have snafled her today though? Just for the record, here's my list of 2yo fillies who've broken the 90 barrier this season; Natagora = 105.13? Jane Blue = 101.44? Natagora = 98.41 Fleeting Spirit = 97.91 Natagora = 94.82 Proviso = 94.08 Laureldean Gale = 93.58 Fleeting Spirit = 93.41 Natagora = 93.11 Listen = 93.05 Fashion Rocks = 92.64 Fleeting Spirit = 92.29 Natagora = 90.90 N'joom Dubai = 90.88 Saorise Abu = 90.17 That Natagora has recorded 4 of the fastest 10 times is pretty unique in my limited experience

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06-10-07, 09:05 PM	#2 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Yes I snaffled the value prices about Natagora and dipped in with a tasty forecast to boot. Link to Spook's Natagora Original Posting

08-10-07, 06:11 PM	#3 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	I have Natagora rated to 99.10 with the inclusion of River Proud, and 98.21 without. I'm inclined to leave River Proud in the lineup of variance calculation as I feel Natagora has run to about 99, which is only a head or so off the figure you've calculated. Bear in mind I'm using slightly altered Class Par's and my sheet rounds them up to 2DP. Check out Longchamp 7th Oct, for a potential Oaks prospect. Note the inteference in running she suffered, while travelling like a charm, before getting the split and absolutely powering home making the remainder all look pedestrian. YouTube - PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC (Gr1) 07/10/07 - ZARKAVA

08-10-07, 11:21 PM	#4 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Speed rating horses has put us on to some good prospects early (Teofilo, Rail Link & Natagora), on other occasions we’ve been late in that all we’ve done is find a performance at the same time as everyone else and have thus been reduced to reporting its significance, as the price vanished the moment the horse crossed the line. I’m afraid a case of the latter might very well have occurred at Longchamp in the Marcel Bousacc (as indeed it did last year too). In recent years Six Perfections, Divine Proportions and Finscael Beo have prevailed in the 2yo fillies mile, so it’s probably no great insight to throw Zarkava into the mix and nominate her as being likely to follow in some illustrious hoof prints, but follow I believe she will. Prior to Sunday, she’d only won a maiden, but was supplemented for the Bousacc based on sparkling homework. It proved a valuable piece of judgement. In winning she has run 98.47 which I seem to think is a little bit shy of what Finscael Beo managed (if memory serves me correctly) but this was only her second run, and she met not inconsiderable interference in running before extracting herself from the melee to deliver a crushing blow to your correspondents wallet. I thought Laureldean Gale was definately vulnerable at the price and had resolved to back Conference Call. Having made all and seemingly fought off Mad About You in the final furlong without showing any signs of weakening I was starting to count my money, when Zarkava appeared from nowhere full of running and ultimately delivered a decisive blow. This looks like it’s the best 2yo fillies race of the season to date and the form deserves the utmost respect. If Zarkava has run 98.47, then Conference Call’s gone in at 95.97 and Mad About You 94.47. The winner is the only filly I’ve found this year who looks to be up to laying down a challenge to Natagora, though I expect Listen to progress from her mark of 93.05. The runner up is trained by Pascal Bary which had me looking in two directions. His record in the race is second to none, yet was it ever likely that he had in Conference Call and Natagora the two best 2yo fillies at the same time? I don’t know, but being a May foal I’d be surprised if the runner up featured prominently in the early 2008 exchanges. This race was kind of billed as Laureldean Gale against 3 smart Frenchies. Sure enough 2 of the French horses came past the line first. The betting suggests however, that the third was not without support, and given that the winner and runner up confirmed this expectation I’d suggest keeping a shrewd eye out for Gipson Dessert, who burst the gates and was withdrawn. I seem to think that Gipson was the foremost on the PMU, where as UK industry had made Conference Call second favourite. If you’re looking for some ante post value, and don’t mind taking a bit of a blind leap of faith Gipson Dessert might be the forgotten horse to take out of the race (if it’s possible to take one out that didn’t run). If the PMU had been vindicated on a race of this calibre with its second and third choices finishing first and second, and doing so on merit with a useful Dermot Weld yardstick back in third, (Mad About You had finished 3rd in the Moyglare just 0.5L’s behind Listen when encountering interference in running) is it really that fanciful to draw a conclusion about Gipson Dessert? She did after all beat Blue Chagall LTO who went on to subsequently win a Gp3, she has form lines with the exposed Salut L’Africain beaten 5L’s to suggest she’s close to Natagora who has beaten the same horse 5.5L’s and 6L’s respectively. The issue of targets remains a mystery though. Pascal Bary appears to have performed a U turn regarding the possibility of Newmarket for Natagora, that she won the Chevelley Park without ever having been dug into is a clue, but I’d have thought a mile will be right on the edge of what she’s up to with a DI of 2.20 and CD of 0.75. Then again she’s only got 8 dosage points in her profile, so this might not be the best way of assessing her. Zarkava at 1.91 and 0.69 looks more like a Guineas horse, though would also be suited to the Prix Diane. Alain De Roger Dupre trained Darjina of course, and she went the Longchamp route. I wouldn’t be quite so certain as most people are that the Oaks is her natural target. At 2.00 and 0.67 the unquoted Gipson Dessert would be similarly suited to either assignment, and I’d be interested to know what price anyone could get.

05-05-08, 07:40 PM	#5 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	We knew Spooky, we knew

05-05-08, 10:36 PM	#7 (permalink)
Thommo Hardcore Raver Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Ayr.	Aye just seen this and Id be fuming if I was on that Nahoodh. Richard Hughes would find trouble in a 2 runner race though.

06-05-08, 01:03 AM	#8 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	I'm reminded of a well worn quote from the world of international espionage and counter terrorism Toney. "I'd rather have a reputation for being lucky, than one for being good"

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