diving in deeper

[Hexham VIP]

I was thinking today when watching race replays on the sporting life how i could use them with my speed ratings...

I thought i could watch the races that earn high and low ratings and look out for horses that were unlucky in running/had bad draws/ran green that sort of thing. I am going to look at the next 3 runs and see how they get on. Has anyone tried this before??

[The Duke]

I do this on a regular basis mate, and it sure as hell does work. Especially when you find the odd concealed performer or two next time out at value prices.

[Hexham VIP]

I will have a go at that then and see what i find. I am interested to find if races with higher ratings produce more winners (that ran into trouble in that race) than the slow races because they should in theory. it might throw up some trends as well.

[Spook]

Just be wary of very slow races. Horses that win these often do so because of superior (and sometimes devastating) acceleration which is a trait you wouldn't mind having on your side. It sometimes pays to check what the distance was back to third horse home in these cases. As a general rule the higher the class of race obviously the better, as some horses win races in a slow time because,..... well.... some of them are slow!!!! Horses winning in group class in a very slow time have probably done so for having a turn of foot

You're most likely to encounter concealed performers in decent field handicaps, and possibly something that got on the wrong side of a draw bias. If you get the time (which i haven't had for months now) it's certainly worth pursuing. Your figures only need marking using conventional handicap short hand and a little 'note to self'

[broadsword]

Thats the method I would think will bring you most Joy especially when looking at handicaps.I've always thought if you look at a handicap thats been run in a really fast time and only look at the first and second in the race that those horses have been punished for the performance i.e there mark has gone up and due to the nature of there current form they won't be much of a price next time out.But say in the same race a horse is trapped on the outside on the bend loses a lot of ground on the front 2 then meets a bit of trouble in running and is eased towards the end he may finish 10 lengths down.If you think he'd have been there or there abouts with a bit more luck in running and then the next time they meet hes been dropped a couple of pounds and the other horses have been raised a few yet he'll be double the price in all probablility.With your speed ratings (which is a major advantage over your normal mug i.e me) you know that the horse will be up to winning which ever class par you rated that race so off a couple of pounds lower you know hes going to be there abouts at a decent price.I think if you can stick to that you'll make a right few quid


You say you watch race replays on sporting life how much does that cost?
I was thinking of buying the racing post subscription for £200 for the year which gives you all the replays on the same site.Would you say the sporting life one is better? I hate flicking between ATR and RUK to get replays and I don't like the way RUK one works.

Anyone else got any suggestions for the best site to watch your replays on as I want to be doing a fair bit of it soon to get ready for the return of the beloved Jumps

[The Duke]

Race Replays on Sporting Life are completely free mate.

[broadsword]

All races ? Off UK and Atr ? If thats the case I'm going to be well miffed as I've been struggling with this so much I usually end up thinking **** it and not bothering

[broadsword]

Just been over and had a go on the sporting life replays looks like they only do the RUK ones but its so fast thats absolultely brill Jay cheers mate

[The Duke]

Attheraces show replays on their website for free aswell Danny, and always have done.

[broadsword]

I knew that Jay but its just I've used that which is o.k but the racing uk site has always been shite on my computer and I don't like the way its laid out that sporting life one is much quicker and user friendly cheers again mate

Te racing post site always tends to be slow and I have trouble with it freezing but I've never been sure wether the laptop needs seeing to or wether its just a problem with the site and the amount of info? Anyone else have similar ? That Sporting life site is lightening quick on mine which is making me think the problem is not me laptop

[CPGagie]

.

[Hexham VIP]

Originally Posted by broadsword

I knew that Jay but its just I've used that which is o.k but the racing uk site has always been shite on my computer and I don't like the way its laid out that sporting life one is much quicker and user friendly cheers again mate Te racing post site always tends to be slow and I have trouble with it freezing but I've never been sure wether the laptop needs seeing to or wether its just a problem with the site and the amount of info? Anyone else have similar ? That Sporting life site is lightening quick on mine which is making me think the problem is not me laptop

I never used to look before with my old pc as it was too slow, i got a new PC last week and its awesome compared to that.

[Hexham VIP]

Originally Posted by Spook

Just be wary of very slow races. Horses that win these often do so because of superior (and sometimes devastating) acceleration which is a trait you wouldn't mind having on your side. It sometimes pays to check what the distance was back to third horse home in these cases. As a general rule the higher the class of race obviously the better, as some horses win races in a slow time because,..... well.... some of them are slow!!!! Horses winning in group class in a very slow time have probably done so for having a turn of foot You're most likely to encounter concealed performers in decent field handicaps, and possibly something that got on the wrong side of a draw bias. If you get the time (which i haven't had for months now) it's certainly worth pursuing. Your figures only need marking using conventional handicap short hand and a little 'note to self'

I will stick to the extremes low and high, low are probably going to have the most interesting results. Think i will give Ireland a miss due to the inaccurate distances.

[Hexham VIP]

I looked at races over a 2 week period at the end of July and split them into slow run races and fast run races. I have monitored each horse for a maximum 3 runs.

Slow run races.

Out of the 6 horses i picked out they ran 8 times in total(up to today). Only one of them won at 11/1(a 2yo) so i would be in profit slightly backing them blind.

Fast run races
Out of the 18 horses i picked out they ran 25 times in total(up to today). 5 won at 15/8, 4/5, 7/2, 6/4 & 11/4(one 2yo and the rest were 3yos), backing these blind would result in a loss.

I think i need to go back and look at the full 4 weeks and see how if goes from there. Out of the 6 horses in total that won 5 did so next time out and the other did on the second run. Once i have looked at a full month i will look into the types of races that were won and see if there are trends.

Any ideas what i can do or what i am doing wrong, feel free to say!

[CPGagie]

I dont understand how you could have had 18 horses from fast races, yet only 6 from slow races.

There are many more slow races compared to genuinely fast races. Out of the few fast races that there would have been, there wouldnt have been that many concealed/unlucky runners that could have smashed their mark.

So 6 from slow races, and 18 from fast races, doesnt look correct to me. Even if it were the other way around (18 from slow and 6 from fast) it still doesnt look right imo.

The next time I have a race that is definitley fast, I'll try to remember to post it. It should supply winners, and anything that was unlucky, badly drawn, trip too short, etc, should run well next time out (conditions permitting) at a decent price.

[Hexham VIP]

I will try to explain my thinking, for starters i have a couple of horses in the fast rating that i have seen in the flesh and have added them on the same sheet, they shouldnt be there.

What i have looked for are races where i have award the winner an extreme rating of a high or low, i thought that if i stuck to that i would have less races to go through because as you say there are loads of slow run races everyday, what i looked for is races that are much slower or faster than usual.

More importantly what i looked for in both fast and slow races, are there genuine excuses for why the horse didn't win or finish closer to the winner?
I am no expert so I looked for horses that have been blocked or barged off making a run, horses that have changed legs, wandered or zigzag'd in the finish or been on the wrong side and horses that have ran on as if they needed a longer distance.

They have possibly been more races that will have eye catchers but they havent caught mine! Thats why there is a difference in the number of horses.

Mainly the better races earn the best figures so i have tried to look at races where they have earned an unusually high rating for the class of race. Especially over further than 6 furlongs.

[Spook]

If you're dealing in 'very' slow races, as opposed to slow races you're probably ok. The only thing you're really profiling however is finishing kick so you need to build winning distance into the equation (probably back to the third place, as it's not unusual for two horses to duel in such races and finish close to each other). As a general rule the higher the class of race the more reliable. It is always possible remember that very slow races occur in lower grades precisely because the horse is..... very slow

[CPGagie]

I still dont buy into it.

St Nicholas Abbey springs to mind for example. A turn of foot in a race close to par (or better still fast), is another thing entirely. Off a slow pace though, I honestly dont think it means much. In fact, with St Nicholas Abbey, it was wise to oppose the Even money fav, theres rarely any value with them, as the nation turns them into hype horses, simply due to a turn of foot. I backed Dick Turpin EW at 25's for that very reason, and while the fav was obviously a slight worry, it wasnt more than that to me, and my gut told me the sting would be drawn out of it in a truely run race. A solid pace changes everything.

[Desert Orchid]

Keep in mind, though, that slow races (regardless of class) can occur when the pace has been over-fast in the first half and the winner is simply slowing down more gradually than the others.

[Spook]

I tend to think the 'jog and sprint' slow race that involves a visually impressive winner who is subsequently taken off their feet in a true test, is much more a feature of 2 mile hurdle races (especially novice and juveniles). The only flat horse I can think of in the last couple of years who had won impressively and occupied favouritism for the 1000 guineas in slow races was Sander Camillo. She was always a candidate to be taken off her feet regardless of the injury she subsequently suffered. My own idea of the winner was Finescael Beo but her fast timed win came in the Bousacc and the price went almost the moment she crossed the line.

A lot of it depends on how you think a race will pan out of course. If you've got a horse who you think has a devastating turn of foot base don wins in slow races, and suspect that you'll be served up with a similar race again, then you have an insight. If however you take the view that you'll get a true run race, then you'd adopt a more cautious approach as the horse is going into unknown territory, and there's been quite a few 2 mile novice hurdlers who've been caught out in the Supreme exactly this way