Betting on US racing - is it that simple?

[Corbiere]

I was just reading the report in the RP on the sale of the 1.7million filly song to Aussie Paul Makin, owenr of Starcraft and other good horses.

He is reported as saying:

" I bet mathematically on horses in Asia and America and can’t lose, it’s all computer driven. It’s all just betting on numbers and one of George Bush’s best legacies came four years ago when he allowed other countries to bet on American racing tax free," he added. "


This is obviously possible with US racing which has fairly standard tracks in which the draw bias is pretty easy to predict, and standard.

Does anyone use a system for US racing, and if so have they thought of forming a syndicate to make money, if it;s that easy?

[The Duke]

A friend of mine has been talking alot of switching to betting on American racing as he believes to be so many more angles to make money than the UK.

In my limited experience it is all numbers based, hence the massive prominence the Beyer figures have over there and mostly all the surfaces are the same if not very similar.

I'll try and get him to come over and share his views on this at some point.

[Corbiere]

Cheers Duke, that would be very useful. My thinking was, that if we could get a littel forum syndicate together to profit form this, led by someone who really understands that market, there must be money to be made (to throw away on the fun bets this side of the pond )

Matt Chapman and Jason Weaver are pretty good at it, esp Matt

[andthereoff]

This is what I use for American Speed Ratings

US Horse Racing: Free Ratings, Speed Ratings, Selections, Thoroughbreds, Free

I have found that my strike rate in America is much greater although I dispise everything about the racing from the surface to the on screen imagery its so dated.

I have to say there is no liquidty around on Betfair to make thousands per winning bet

[The Duke]

I tell you who I found to be quite good, was Stephen Millar the American guy that works on ATR.

Was watching ATR one night and he was banging in winners left, right and centre.

If you are interested in taking this approach Sara in regards to American racing, it might be worth a purchase of 'Beyer On Speed' by Andrew Beyer - I've got it currently and its worth a read.

There are plenty of books on amazon both from a speed and handicapping perspective.

[Budgie]

Just to put this into context Paul Makin was a monster gambler who used very complex computer models to bet on Hong Kong and Japanese racing - and he won many millions. He also had an army of people working on his IT systems.

And went bust at least twice and saw his marriage break up along the way.

[Corbiere]

Well Budgie that is a sobering thought Seems to be flush again now though

Tbh I don't have the patience or the interest to get into US racing myself, and I don't find relying on speed ratings an attractive way to approach horseracing or betting - I come to my conclusions by a whole raft of factors of which official or private speed ratings are just one factor.

It's the many variables which make the whole UK and Irish scene so fascinating for me. Those standard tracks are quite different though, as a betting proposition - but as andtheroff says, US racing's deadly boring, except at very top level

Anyway, I guess if there is no liquidity then investing in a betting syndicate is never going to get off the ground!

[Retroneous]

Originally Posted by The Duke

I tell you who I found to be quite good, was Stephen Millar the American guy that works on ATR.

I was watching ATR online tonight (via Betfair) and Miller was presenting the UK racing. I love the flamboyance, the Americanisms and the quick tempo that he brings to the sport over here, I have to say - much in the same way that the guys at TVG in the US always seem to make the between-racing sections more interesting.

Our coverage is decent-ish, but when you look at TVG with its flashy graphics, overlays that appear on time (e.g. when the presenter is discussing what's supposed to be on screen and - magically - it is, ATR take note) and genuinely knowledgeable staff - as opposed to the "in-crowd" who seem to think that they're knowledgeable that appear over here - it really is worlds apart.

If I have to sit through Steve Melluish telling me what a "lovely looking individual" this or that horse is, or how he "thinks that the handicapper's got him now" just before it dots up by 10 lengths (as it was always going to) - one more time, I think I might have to make a shift to US racing myself. When he and Nick Luck are on-screen together, its like Luck is leading the conversation (because he is) and coming up with decisive predictions (because he is) for Melluish to agree to. And ATR could do with losing the "Betfair-made" pro-punters that only ever seem to know about early pace (due to their in-running skill) and nothing about which horses have a chance of winning. Rant ends.

US racing is certainly better to work with from a statistical point of view.

Been looking at pace in the UK tonight for my software, and I've got 40 possible race reader descriptions of early pace. There may be more, but I don't know. One race reader may say "pushed to the front early" and another may say "pushed along early, led early" and they both mean the same thing. I'll catch most of them, but there's no way I'll get all of them without entering pace stats manually for every runner in every race. With US data, I know where each horse is at every single call and how long each runner took to get there. Therefore, I can accurately determine not only which horses led early doors, but which horses were forced to lead by default, and which ones led purposefully. If I have two horses with (my) rating of 102 in a race in the UK, I've no idea where they ran on the track (rail, out wide), whether either was involved in a stamina-sapping head-and-head battle that indicates that the horse was kicking on as fast as it could, or if the horse had an easy win and could have run faster. With the amount of data that comes from every single race in the US (even at the tiny Casino tracks), I could work all that out automatically, and relatively easily.

Admittedly, a lot of my problem here is laziness (and time, of course), but I have a background in statistical coding and think that I could come up with something that could truly make the selection process easier - if only I had enough accurate and reliable data to work with.

Sectional times, workout times, accurate comments from race-readers who know what they're talking about ("Held up" is not the same as "Fell out of the gate with two others before those other two barged it to the back of the pack", Raceform Interactive) and a class system that is relatively well standardized mean that the data - whilst larger due to the amount of tracks - is much easier to work with. Its something that I plan to look at in the future, when I get some time to really get into it.