Ayr Gold Cup

[andthereoff]

Think there could be a decent bet for the Ayr Gold Cup, all you speed raters can you post your thoughts on GREAT CHARM at Chester this saturday.

Currently 100-1, seriously can't believe the price on the figure its just recorded, if it can get in then this would have serious claims!

Where would Alston go with this to get it rated a little higher?
because it would be a shame to see it go for Silver Cup.

[Spook]

The chances are he'll be raised no higher than 85, which will be about 10Ibs short of getting in the Ayr Gold Cup. He'd have to win the Portland the week before at Doncaster, which would be a massive ask. I wouldn't even attempt it. If he's raised to 85 he'll struggle to make the Silver Cup based on last year. In 2009 of course Ayr introduced the Bronze Cup and attracted bumper entries for all 3 races. The evidence suggests they'll do the same again. I'd be inclined to think this is the race he'll most likely get into, but I'd certainly be keen to run the Silver Cup off what would be close to bottom weight for a horse that is seemingly quite a bit more effective when the word soft appears in a going description. His two a/w wins have also come on the deeper surface as well. The mid range forecast looks like mixed weather, and west Scotland could hardly be described as being in a rain shadow, so there's a pretty good chance he'll hit 'soft' ground I'd have said. The race is usually run on soft, or versions of it(about 50%-60% of the time in truth). This could force a few N/R's, but I don't know if they allow reserves, as he'll be right on the border of getting in the Silver Cup (my best guess is 40% likely though).

I've rated the Chester performance at about 112 (weight) and he did come from the coffin draw. 3 or 4 horses completely fluffed their start however, allowing him to take up a more prominent position then he'd normally be permitted at the Roodeye, so it's a little bit flattering, but still noteworthy. He still ran wideish as i recall, but wasn't penalised as much as he could have been and was allowed to get near the front before holding on.

I don't recall rain falling? even though the times suggest it did. It's always possible that horses running of soft ground opened it up a bit and slowed things up as the card progressed, but I wouldn't get too excited by that by way of explanation, and it's probably wiped out by the draw anyway which will still have cost him 1-2 lengths.

100/1 for the Gold Cup sounds about right for a horse whose chance of lining up can only be about 5% at best, and that would require him to win another decent handicap between now and then, and that's before we even think about winning the race itself

[andthereoff]

Originally Posted by Spook

The chances are he'll be raised no higher than 85, which will be about 10Ibs short of getting in the Ayr Gold Cup. He'd have to win the Portland the week before at Doncaster, which would be a massive ask. I wouldn't even attempt it. If he's raised to 85 he'll struggle to make the Silver Cup based on last year. In 2009 of course Ayr introduced the Bronze Cup and attracted bumper entries for all 3 races. The evidence suggests they'll do the same again. I'd be inclined to think this is the race he'll most likely get into, but I'd certainly be keen to run the Silver Cup off what would be close to bottom weight for a horse that is seemingly quite a bit more effective when the word soft appears in a going description. His two a/w wins have also come on the deeper surface as well. The mid range forecast looks like mixed weather, and west Scotland could hardly be described as being in a rain shadow, so there's a pretty good chance he'll hit 'soft' ground I'd have said. The race is usually run on soft, or versions of it(about 50%-60% of the time in truth). This could force a few N/R's, but I don't know if they allow reserves, as he'll be right on the border of getting in the Silver Cup (my best guess is 40% likely though). I've rated the Chester performance at about 112 (weight) and he did come from the coffin draw. 3 or 4 horses completely fluffed their start however, allowing him to take up a more prominent position then he'd normally be permitted at the Roodeye, so it's a little bit flattering, but still noteworthy. He still ran wideish as i recall, but wasn't penalised as much as he could have been and was allowed to get near the front before holding on. I don't recall rain falling? even though the times suggest it did. It's always possible that horses running of soft ground opened it up a bit and slowed things up as the card progressed, but I wouldn't get too excited by that by way of explanation, and it's probably wiped out by the draw anyway which will still have cost him 1-2 lengths. 100/1 for the Gold Cup sounds about right for a horse whose chance of lining up can only be about 5% at best, and that would require him to win another decent handicap between now and then, and that's before we even think about winning the race itself

It is intersting that the owners have transfered this horse to Eric Alston from Michael Bell and has managed to win in first two starts for his new trainer who has a regime that suits sprinters which may bring futher improvement.

I agree that the Silver Cup would be more likely target although you just dont know how far this horse is going to go with the new trainer, I can't get away from the time to be honest nothing to me suggests its badly impered by external factors although the RP says that "Movement of the rails meant that the horses were racing over further than the official distances during the afternoon. Over 6f, 7f and 7.5f the fields covered an extra 20 yards, the 1m5f races were run over and additional 37 yards and the 2m an extra 40 yards."

Roker Park is also no mug when it comes to putting up pretty serious times on soft ground and it was pleasing to see Great Charm beat him comfortably.

Great Charm was also 3rd to Laddies Poker Two in 2008 off 87 so Eric Alston knows he can get this horse up to 87 minimun which could get him into Ayr Gold Cup, but would need to go on a little winning streak.

I suppose you're right, if Jamie can delete this thread as its probably pointless and got a bit excited by the time.

[Spook]

Raised to 81.

No chance of making the Gold Cup. Even a win in the Portland would leave him struggling (provided he could even get in the Doncaster race off 81). He's borderline to make the Silver Cup now. In a normal year he'd just about be ok, but they introduced the Bronze Cup last year and the cut off was 88.

[broadsword]

If I may just stick my 2 penneth in as a word of caution and maybe something to be looked into,but if memory serves the ground against the rail that day seemed to be running quite a lot slower than the ground out wider on the course.It may or may not matter and I could be wrong but it was just the impression I got from that days racing.This may have distorted some of your times for that card.If the time great charm ran was unbelievably fast then maybe it stands to reason that rather than great charm has improved beyond recognition that there is something amiss with the ratings he has recieved.

Also if memory serves that race was a race where a horse called Roker Park finished a close second after missing the kick from his low draw and there were several horses who didn't quite get the run of the race which finished in quite close proximity.

The first question I'd ask ATO is on your figures would it show that Roker Park has also improved and Bahimian lad and Tyfos surley if they have all ran a markedly quicker time than which they had previously done then it may look a bit dodgy ? If so surley there is something wrong with the figures ?

If the figures you hold are correct which they may well be I don't record figures of my own. But wouldn't it be best to concentrate on the horses in behind who didn't quite get the run of it and won't have been punished by the handicapper? Can't remember what the other horses were rated but if they are rated higher than great charm then maybe they would get into the Silver cup and maybe worth a decent bet

Thoughts of the clown for you to mull over or disregard as you like

[broadsword]

Also just looking at that days racing just made me feel a bit sick as it was one I missed. Side glance watch the race.Wether the time was good or not I don't know but he was drawn out wide to and came from normally an Impossible postion at Chester to win and looked mightly impressive.This may be further evidence that coming down the middle of the track was a lot faster way to get home that day.Previously I'd noted this horse when he was pushed into the middle at Ascot along with a horse called Mass Rally.Mass Rally dissapointed after that yet Side glance looked simply awesome at Chester, was he that way or is it further evidence that horses caught out wider that day were at an advantage over those on the inside which is not the norm to say the least at Chester.

[Spook]

Runs today in the 4.15 at Chester. Drawn from stall 1 this time off bottom weight over 7F's

[Spook]

Bottom weight, in the top stall available at 25's in the Bronze Cup. Urm......got to be hasn't it? Those of you who believe in fate

[Norton]

I would take that price now if playing, I'd be surprised if it went off bigger than 12s, and if it goes off bigger than 16s.. well... I will buy a particularly fancy hat and eat it lol

[Spook]

25's with PP on 5 places!!!

The thing is the field is likely to split with 27 runners, so in effect you could easily be getting something like 5 places for 15/16 runners. Great Charm can go from the front, and although I expect something to collar him in truth, you can always hang on for a place and if he's got enough engine he just might last home, you never know.

Medici Time is the other one I think as bits and pieces of form that give her a squeak. Finishing 4L's behind Astrophysical Jet when in receipt of 3Ibs at Newmarket this year when noted as "slowly into stride" and "ran on final furlong" isn't bad given that this was the race before Astro came 3rd in Gp2 and won a Gp3 NTO. Before that she'd come off second best to Johnny Mudball and Poets Place at Newcastle when trying to take them on for the lead. She was beaten comfortably enough, but was only getting 5 and 2Ibs respectively from horses who are prominent in the Gold Cup. She's drawn 24 and you'd think that if pacing herself better in this class, she won't be far away

[hedgehunter]

Wouldn't rule out Courageous Spook - had him in at 5/1 when I priced the race up earlier, finished really strongly at Haydock last time out over 5f and a change of tactics and stable seem to suit this horse to a tee.

[Spook]

You can make a case for about half the field in these races, as they nearly all have some line of form to invoke. He's fav and probably has a fav's chance. He certainly holds Medici Time on latest.

I'm curious to know just how long it takes before an improvement shows up in a horse that changes yard. I've possibly got one eye on Redford who's also moved to Dandy. In fact he seems to be picking up quite a few new horses at the moment. I spotted another one that had been sent his way on top of these earlier in the day

[The Duke]

I really liked Courageous on my ratings but at 7/1, absolutely no thanks.

I'm going to sit back and watch the action unfold in this race.

[skydog]

Yeah,agree with that Spook.Redford looks an ideal Nicholls candidate.I'm already on with a small saver on Noverre To Go.

A couple of points worth bearing in mind are that all the last 13 winners were 10/1 or bigger and only one fav in 30 years as won. 12 of the last 13 winners also carried 9-3 or less so that rules out a handful.

For what its worth I may have a small ew on Mastership in the Bronze Cup,looks to me as though Quinny could have planned this one.

[Spook]

Originally Posted by skydog

I'm already on with a small saver on Noverre To Go.

Shush..... don't tell Segal

He looks like my idea of the winner to be honest as of tonight

[The Duke]

Valery Borzov is one that interests me in this, has had the handbrake on all season has dropped massively down the weights but hasn't got the kindest draw.

[skydog]

Originally Posted by skydog

For what its worth I may have a small ew on Mastership in the Bronze Cup,looks to me as though Quinny could have planned this one.

Nearly pulled it off but each way money landed.

[skydog]

Luvvly Jubbly

[Spook]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGH

The midweek idea was binned, in favour of something that came last

[broadsword]

Originally Posted by skydog

Luvvly Jubbly

Well done Dawg ...a very easy winner there