Broads sporting Bloopers

[broadsword]

O.k I'm turning over a new leaf and I'm going to start recording my bets up on the site and Although I don't have a lot of Sporting bets occasionally I have a decent wedge on something of the sporting variety.Normally when I'm turning over a new leaf its because I'm on my knees and have been doing my goolies but in fairness the last month or so has been kind although I've give them a fair chunk back in this last couple of days,which is sort of the natural reaction with me, Win a load and give it them back by going betting crazy.Still I have a fair chunk left to play with and I thought there is no better time to sort myself out.

No real tatics for this but I keep coming back to what Alun said a while ago about hitting heavier less often,and waiting for the right oppurtunity.Which of course is only common sense but something that I rarely apply.I might also take a lead from Jay in terms of betting e/w a bit more as it seems to do alright for him but Also I've been looking at things a little different in my home life.I don't really need to win loads of dosh I've got most the things I want in life anyway,so what I'm saying really is I'm in no rush,I'm going to start chilling out a bit more and enjoying it.

Horse racing is still my main thing and sports will definately be the side show but I'll record everything and see how it goes.

Stakes will go to a maximum of 20 pts and anything goes in terms of bets.


Championship 10/11 outright QPR @ 12/1 first 4 1/4 PP 10pts e/w.

This bet is born out of 2 main theorys firstly is the lack of opposition.Normally when looking for the winner of the championship you need look no further than the 3 who came down into it.But to be honest the 3 who came down haven't come down in good order money problems and at least 2 of the Teams contain a few big time charlies who from my experience don't bare well in this division it takes a certain sort of player to go and play away games in the winter at some of the clubs you encounter at this level you need a bit of heart and desire to go and drag a result out when faced with ugly football in ugly grounds and I think a couple of them will be found lacking in that department.

Middlesborough who seem to be most peoples favourites to take the title have one of the most important things needed for sucess...a patient Chairman.I always think it helps a manager when hes given time and backing from above and Strachan will recieve this in abundance.I think this though is a blessing as I don't believe Strachan is capable of running a bath let alone a football team.Great player,I even quite like his no nonsense attitude but as a football manager I don't rate him.The Chairman will let him see out the season whatever happens and this should be enough to stop Middlesborough from at least taking the the title.


The second part of my theory is based around Warnock and cash in the championship thats a good combo
This QPR bet is a bit risky as they definatley lack patients with there managers which is one vital area in which they are lacking.But Warnock has had the chance to see what hes got at the end of last season and has had a full pre season to prepare.Whatever people say about Warnock you simply can't deny that hes has a way of getting his players together, working hard,organised, and this alone will stand anyside in good stead at this level.Add to this that he has a bit of cash to throw around to bring in a bit of quality and this is starting to look like a side that is going to be in the shake up.The championship is a leauge where to win matches it takes 90 minutes of persperation and a couple of moments of inspiration,and with Warnock and a bit of dosh in the equation QPR should have plenty of both.Having had the pre-season and time to organise the troops I'm hoping that its all systems go and they can get off to a flyer meaning the board sit back and let Warnock do his thing.

I make them favourites for the title so at 12/1 with 4 places its worth a maximum I think.Usually I'd have backed this on the nose and edged (or hedged never sure what the term is) it but to be honest I'm terrible with my timing of such things so I'll settle for an e/w and see how it goes

[broadsword]

I know its early days to say the least but 2 games played 2 wins 7 goals for with none against . I've had worst starts and Laddies go 9/2 bit of an over reaction there but at least Warnocks not got the sack and hopefully it'll give the board confidence to back him in the transfer market

A silver lining on another grey day

[broadsword]

Couldn't resist but managed not to go too mad


Craig Bellamy Championship top scorer 9/1 coral 4pts e/w 1st 4 1/4 odds

[broadsword]

Another day another bet. Its occured to me that whilst Bellamy has been shortened to 6/1 and I'm still quite happy that 9/1 was a bit of value that Bellamy may be more provider than finisher and although I still fancy him to get his share I'm looking at another member of the Cardiff squad as a bit of a dark horse for top scorer.Jay Bothroyd is the man and I know him well from his days at the MOL.He's already notched 4 goals (3 in the championship) yet Sky Bet seem to be prepared to stick there chin out @ 33/1 1st 4 1/4 Eurosport go 50/1 win only whilst the biggest he is anywhere else is 20/1 and as short as 14's in places which I would think would be a realsitic price.

Why Jay Bothroyd well he ticks several boxes.

1) Touch wood hes not Injury prone

2) Hes an unlikey target for prem clubs in the transfer window

3) He now has about the best supply in the championship with the likes of Whittingham, Bellamy and Koumas servicing him.

4) He has all the attributes a top striker needs big strong,quick enough at the level and a terrific striker of the ball.

5) Already has 3 goals in the bag which is probably 1 6th of what he needs to squeak a top 4 position.


He was never the most popular figure at the Molineux but I always quite liked him. He seemed like a bit of a playboy when he first arrived with his diamond earrings and his Bentley in close attendance and for the start of his stay at Wolves he didn't pull up any trees in the work department.Starved of any kind of decent service as the early trolley dash squad that the Messiah put together in around 9 days lacked quality to say the least,he then fell out of favour don't to the lack of work rate and a few niggling injuries.Then later on when he returned to the squad he seemed to have upped his game and his work rate but once the Molineux boo boys start it takes a miracle to turn them around also being deployed wide left didn't aid his cause.So I felt a little sorry as he walked out the door as i believed there was a decent player there but it hadn't quite worked out for him.He seems to have found his feet at Cardiff and I have the feeling this could be his year.Of course there are plenty of bodies to be sharing the goals amongst at Cardiff Bellamy,Whittingham and Chopra are sure to get there fair share but with the latter being a bit sulky early doors and plenty short enough in the Market peraps his strike partner may outshine him this term.The other thing I'm taking into account is there is plenty of width to this Cardiff team and should be plenty of crosses going in all season long Bothroyd is the biggest Cardiff have in the box and whislt hes not the most natural header of a ball I'd take him anyday to be getting his head on more than Chops


Jay Bothroyd Championship top scorer 2.5pts e/w 33/1 Skybet 1st 4 1/4 odds

Also having only Just opened up an account I get a free 30 bet which has gone on Cardiff @ 11/2 there best price 7/1 at the moment but a free bet is a free bet.

3pts free bet win Cardiff outright Championship 11/2

I've missed the boat a little with Cardiff as I had a peek when Bellamy signed and they were best price 10/1.The reason I couldn't part with any real money on them is there financial state they have looked like folding for the last couple of seasons all the talk of winding up orders and such they look like a 10pt deduction could fall on them at any time.So I'm happy enough to stick with QPR who are going along fine and I hear there might be a couple of decent signings on the way. To have a bit of free cover is enough on Cardiff who whilst looking like they may well score 100 goals this season don't have a lot of strength in depth in terms of the squad they hold at present.

Sporting Bloopers, so far,so good

[Norton]

Sound reasoning on the Bothroyd bet Broad, good luck

[broadsword]

Cheers Pete 25/1 best price now corals sky bet 22/1 surley my pony e/w hasn't done that? Surley the sporting bloopers thread hasn't got followers? Perhaps I've been missing vocation all these years backing horses. BROADSWORD sports betting extrordinaire....Oh yes , I like that

[broadsword]

Its either very good or very bad ! Cardiff this morning have gone and signed Andy Keogh on loan from Wolves.

If Carlsberg made strike partners they'd be Andy Keogh

Firstly I'm mortified as I rate Andy Keogh highly and would have him in our squad over Ebanks Blake anyday of the week.His work rate is phenominal,his footballing brain awsome his movement sublime his all round contribution to any side he plays for can't be measured and he must top the assists chart for games played.However he lets his game down in front of goal (which is a damn big part of your game when you carry the label of striker).But in all fairness his luck is basically dog shit ! If the Keepers going to pull off a worldy it'll be when Keogh shoots if something is going to bounce off a post and out it'll be when Keogh shoots if a passing flying pig swoops through the goal.....you get the picture.

Keoghs main strike partners have been Billy Sharp at Scunny (finished top scorer in league 1) and Ebanks Blake (double golden boot winner in the championship ) maybe a coincidence ? Having seen Keogh play I doubt it ! If I was sure that the Dave Jones master plan was to pair up Bothroyd and Keogh up front which If I remeber rightly Keogh would have set Bothroyd up for most of his goals at Wolves then on my book Jay Bothroyd would now be favourite on my book to have a nice shiny gold boot on his mantlepiece at the end of the season.But we definatley can't be sure that this is the plan.Mccormacks gone but this leaves Bellamy,Chopra and now keogh in competition for places but if Bellamy is deployed wide all season which is a real possibilty and Jones continues to play 2 up top then it should be down to a choice between Bothroyd and Chopra to partner Keogh.Chop's I believe is Injured at the minute how bad I'm not sure and JB scored again last night in the Carling cup giving him 5 goals in as many games so on current form JB should at least get the chance to keep his place and hopefully if he can hold his form he'll hold his place.

Whatever happens whoever gets paired up with Keogh can expect to double there goal tally and seriously,your never going to top signing Craig Bellamy if your a championship club but Andy Keogh is a bloody good 2nd !


Keogh,you will be missed at the Mol !

[broadsword]

Another bit of a cover bet for the Championship this is fast turning into a scattergun approach but whilst Qpr have had a good start and the bookies have definatley overeacted to this shortening QPR so much it presents what I believe to be a little value elsewhere in the market.

Coventry 40/1 1pt e/w 1/4 3 places.

After a decent start to the campaign the firms seem to have taken no notice.I'd already at the start of the season penciled these in as likley outsiders to be in the shake up.Aidy Boothroyd given the reigns and hes a man who knows all about the championship had his hands tied behind his back at Watford somewhat but still managed to find a way out of this division.The only negative I've ever had about him is that when he was given money he smashed the lot signing Nathan Ellington and never has such a waste a space been seen on a pitch.That said I'll forgive anyone one blooper.He seems to have learnt his lesson this term and signed a couple of quality championship players Lee Carsley being perhaps one of the best.Coventry have some decent defenders at this level and Lee carsley an old head sitting in front of them aswell as probably the best holding midfielder in the league should ensure that there good enough at that end of the field at least to play a part. The worry I had preseaon was where the goals were going to come from ? With Freddy Eastwood,Clive platt and Roy o Donavan the only names I recognised amongst the striking department none of which I would call 20 goal men at this level.Eastwood a former Molineux resident I know a bit about suffered a horrific time at our place couldn't get in the side (rightly so in my view) and went almost a full year out the team before moving to Cov where he had a decent season last year considering his lack of football the season before. I think he scraped double figures last year and had done so previously with a struggling Southend side at this level.So at least if his confidence has now been restored there should be a decent amount of goals from Cov's fox in the box. Clive Platt is a decent target man which I always believe is vital thing to have at this level due to the sort of football played in it. Roy o Donavan whilst unproven is a good young kid whose had a bit of Prem experience and should find things a bit easier at this level.This overall was not enough to convince me of a bet.So what has forced my hand?

2 enigmas in the shape of Gary Mcsheffery and Marlon King. Marlon King hasn't signed yet but a mate of mine whose a Coventry fan assures me its a done deal.I have no reason not to believe this, as I can't imagine people queing around the block to sign a wife beater Personal feelings left aside hes a twenty goal man at this level and Aidy Bothroyd has got the best out of him before.Also I'm one who looks at strike partnerships and thinks would it work and I feel that King and Eastwood / King and Donavan would be built for each other and could produce plenty.Hopefully a spell behind bars will have done King a lot of good and if he can follow Lee hughes example and get his head back into his football then hes a hell of a player at this level.Mcsheffrey is a mystery he was simply awsome at this level and then for Blues and looked like a Premier league player in waiting but for some reason really fell out of favour when Mcliesh took over at the Blues.I'd heard a few stories that Mcsheffery was...to put it in a nice way living it up a bit but having watch him play last week it looks like hes on his way back it may take some time for him to reach peak form but if he does,once again its another player with plenty of goals and assists in him at this level.

I may have Jumped the gun a bit in terms of placing the bet as Cov have a tough game Away at Millwall who are going well at the minute and may be available at slightly larger odds should they lose,King has not yet signed on the dotted line although I'm hopeful.What has forced my hand is the fact that should they lose they may drift a little Should they win and sign King there is situation where they could be top of the league on Saturday and we'd be likley to see another massive overeaction from the bookies and the huge price of 40/1 may well be done and dusted.

All the usual things apply when I look at a bet like this finacially stable club with chance of more investment into the team and yadayadaya

This may not be the right approach to the market but I'm happy with the position I hold at the minute

[broadsword]

Right I've rambled so much on this thread I thought I'd just clear up the actual bets so far

Qpr outright 12/1 4 places 10pts e/w
Cardiff outright 11/2 free bet 3pts win
Coventry outright 40/1 3 places 1 pt e/w
Craig Bellamy top scorer championship 4 places 9/1 4pts e/w
Jay Bothroyd top scorer championship 4 places 33/1 2.5pts e/w

All e/w bets so far 1/4 odds

Total staked 35 pts. + 3pts free bet.

[broadsword]

Wasn't going to bother recording these but I will to see how they go I've decided to have a 1pt treb on the footie and a small e/w yankee on goalscorers place odds 1/3 at anytime with quite a few bookies.My mate absolutley cained his local Corals with these Goalscorer bets last year as they were going 1/2 odds a place they have since stopped doing that.Just for a bit of fun really but here goes.

Blackburn 5/1
Newcastle 2/1
Cardiff 11/8

1pt treble ladbrokes


Goalscorers

Cardiff Jay Bothroyd 6/1
Newcastle Andy Carrol 6/1
Blackburn Mame Diouf 10/1
Coventry Freddy Eastwood 8/1

e/w yankee total staked 1.1 pt 365

I'll just put total staked and returned for multis for simplicity.It gets a bit complicated settling Nrs and Nrs for the win only i.e when players come on as sub after a goals been scored so you'll just have to trust me on the settling of bets

[broadsword]

FFs 3 goalscorers place and Freddy Eastwood is sitting on the bloody bench if he stays there hes a NR if he comes on for the last few minutes he counts as a runner 89th min subsitution then

[broadsword]

Put on after 63 minutes and then Coventry go down to ten men and conceed another goal C'mon Freddie rescue it

[broadsword]

What a result! 365 rules must vary to those of Corals as they have settled Eastwood as a NR

[broadsword]

Originally Posted by broadsword

Blackburn 5/1 lost Newcastle 2/1 drew Cardiff 11/8 won 1pt treble ladbrokes Goalscorers Cardiff Jay Bothroyd 6/1 Scored 2nd but counts as 1st due to own goal Newcastle Andy Carrol 6/1 scored 2nd Blackburn Mame Diouf 10/1scored 2nd Coventry Freddy Eastwood 8/1 NR apparently e/w yankee total staked 1.1 pt 365 Return 8.2 pts

Good start to the fun bets then 6.1pts up on the day but to make things easier I'm going to take this away from the stakes for my antepost bets and add any returns should they come

Overall -28.8pts but happy with that

[broadsword]

In other news Bothroyd scores again

Qpr come back from the dead to salvage a good away point at Derby Still yet to make the signings they need

Cov lose after going down to ten men But were looking good away at Millwall until the sending off

Bellamy Blanks

Cardiff win

First ever poster to do an in running commentry on his bets....very sad I know


C'mon the Bothroyd !!!!

[Norton]

Top work with the scorer yankee

[broadsword]

Cheers Pete Just checked the 365 rules and apparently if a player is brought on after a goal is scored he is a NR for the win and the place even if he scores when he comes on which is not the case at Corals where I've had the bets before.Imagine how pissed I'd have been had Eastwood scored and I'd have found that out after

Lovely Jubbly

[broadsword]

A little top up bet on Coventry as I initially thought if they lost a Millwall they may drift a little I didn't however think they would go to 66/1 in places which on that market puts them 17th or 18th position in the betting market which is absolutley ridiculous and I feel that its worth taking a bit more of this.They were a little unlucky to lose at Millwall after a ridiculous sending off, if they had won there they would have been joint top and probaly priced between 12's and 20's.So I'll take my chances that there luck picks up from here on in.

1pt e/w 66/1 3 places 1/4 odds SJ.

After this bet we stand at -30.8 pts.

I'm going to make like the footballers and have a international break,see you in a fornight for more bloopers

[broadsword]

Qpr on the verge of signing Rob Hulse and Tommy Smith if they complete these 2 deals today this bet is money in the Bank ! C'mon !

[broadsword]

Well QPR completed those 2 deals so I'm well happy with that

They have a tough run of fixtures after the international break I believe we'll have a bit more of a clear idea of how they'll fare this year after the next 5 games

I'm off for a betting break to try and prepare a bit for the up and coming Nh season after a bad year last year I'm hoping to get back to winning ways this term,so sporting bloopers will be put on the backburner for a while and will probably return in Mid October for all its followers ( Pete )


Be lucky

[Norton]

Give us a 'B', give us an 'R'....

[broadsword]

[QUOTE=broadsword;450181]


Why Jay Bothroyd well he ticks several boxes.

2) Hes an unlikey target for prem clubs in the transfer window


[QUOTE]

I'm not sure this box is ticked now hes been called up for England

Holy shit ! Notched 13 championship goals by mid November just when it looks as though I'm on a winner I have a feeling the swear box will be full shortly after new year.

Sorry I haven't kept up with the thread but I've been a bit preoccupied with others matters, I know you must be dissapointed Pete PMSL at the cheerleading btw

Broads Bloopers about to take a nosedive Over and out

[broadsword]

My interest in the noble art has died somewhat.My betting interests in this once great sport even more so.However I'm going to chance my arm at pulling off one of the greatest upsets in the history of Boxing.


Del boy Chisora V Wladimir Klistchko

Firstly I think its always wise when being an Englishman to step back when your thinking of backing an English fighter and make sure your not just backing out of a strange patriotic view.This will definatley never apply where I'm concerned as no-one is less patriotic than me in fact I hang my head in shame at the way this country has gone and the way its conducted itself around the World.Even so we could get carried away with media hype when backing a British ( / Zimbabweain ) fighter although in this case there seems to be none.In fact hardly anyone amongst the general public would even realise that there is a British fighter fighting for what used to be the greatest prize in sport.

To me the hype all lyes around Wladimir,billed as this indestructable giant Russian machine sort of Drago-esque in our minds.I actually like Wladimir and think he's a brilliant personality for the sport I like it when he says things like " David you are a little man ", "you are a liar David " and lets not forget " I'll crush you David " when said in that strong Russian accent it always makes me smile. However as much a I like him and as much as realise that what he does he does very well I still don't buy into the fact that he's a boxing great.

Looking through Wladimirs record you'll find a long list of "has beens" and "never will bes" with the occasional splattering of half decent fighters and good technical boxing performances against fighters who could never really get him out of his comfort zone.

If we take a quick look at the Boxers who defeated Wladimir and for those who don't know thats Lamon Brewster,Corey Sanders and Ross purrity (all by K.o) then suddenly the invicibilty potrayed by the betting markets dosen't seem to be there. Ross purrity was already into double figure defeats when he chinned Wladimir and his boxing record ended up with about 20 defats and 3 draws from 50 fights.I remember Corey Sanders outpointing Johnny Nelson at light heavy back in the days before Nelson figured out how to win fights Nelson going into that off 2 consecutive defeats and countless others on his record at the time.Micheal Sprott had took Brewster to points which gives a rough Idea of his abilities.Its brief and probably not all that relevant as most would say "lucky punches" but I'd say you don't have to be that good to expose the weaknesses in the Russian.

I'm not going to lie ,Chisora has done very little to justify a shot at the title hes beat practically nobody and in most fights has looked completely disinterested,fed up ,bored and arrogant as if he can't really be bothered to beat whats been put in front of him.However the one fighter who I rate as half decent on his record would be Sam Sexton who he has fought twice and beat comfortably both times.Having watched Sam Sexton improve with every fight since his first defeat to Chisora, domestically I thought they were the best 2 around by the time the rematch came about.Sexton looked a lot bigger and stronger and looked 100% pumped focused and ready and I gave him a bit of a chance of turning things around.Yet Chisora took it all in his stride with phenominal head movement Sexton could barely land a jab which is probably the strongest part of his game and when Del boy hurt him he wasted no time in finishing him off with punches in bunches.

Positives

Head movement is the key very few fighters manage to master the art of head movement.Plenty can move ther heads lovley whilst standing still and some even when they are moving forwards but the real art is the moving forward with head movement whilst maintaining the balance to unload shots as you do so.Some may shrug at this and say all boxers do that but I feel that very few do it well and even fewer do it aswell as I belive Chisora did it against Sexton.Its harder to do against Wladimir as he has a nasty habit of putting his hand out and holding it there in front of his opponents face which is a very good defensive move but in my view should be and probably is against the rules but he'll get away with it.

Chisora looks naturally heavy handed meaning he dosen't really have to set himself or try to hard to hurt fighters which is another big positive.

He will punch in high number combinations which is also vital.

You never know how good a fighter is until you see what it takes to beat him.I haven't seen Chisora hurt.I don't think I've seen him get out of second gear.I think he just does what he has to do and the best will be brought out of him with this big challenge and this could be the first fight that he's ever took seriously.There is no blue print on how to beat this guy its never been done there is one on Klitschko quite simply, HIT HIM ON THE CHIN !

He also has a couple of vital traights to his personality arrogance and a bit of nastiness.

Negatives

Obviously lack of experience is the main one.With only 14 fights under his belt and most of them not being long or hard fights its hard to know quite what to expect but 'm looking at this as more of a positive than a negative viewing him like an unexposed racehorse who I believe to be capable of better.

The away fixture always a negative. Chances of getting a verdict stand at nil and any favours that can be swung in there by the ref will be in Wladimirs favour,I have no doubts about that.If this fight was in Vegas I'd be tempted to max on it having said that with so much money riding on a Haye, Klitschko bout I'd still have my doubts.

Improvement of Wladimir.Since the days of his defeats he has learned to keep his chin out of the way a lot better but having said that the opponents he has faced have hardly been able to pin him down and aply pressure I'm hoping Del boy can do just that


Betting

I've dusted off my betfair account for this one I've laid Klistchko and backed Chisora its a bit of a mess but this is how it works out.

14pts to a return of 136pts (after commision) should Chisora win

If we get a draw I'll get around 47pts back for the lay.

Probably could have done that better but Chisora is best Price 7/1 with Sporting bet 13/2 and 6/1 generally so I'm happy with the price I've got overall.

I do think for those who are that way inclined that this could be a decent back to lay back in running opportunity but I'm not that way inclined and besides by the time the fight kicks off I'll be to pissed to tell whos who

That leaves the betting bank at -44.8 but hopefully with plenty of returns to come as some of the bloopers aren't looking 2 bad at the mo'

And who knows after he beats Klitschko perhaps he'll have a little dark horse for us at Killarney

[Norton]

Good luck my hero!!

I liked the Drago-esque comment. I'll cheer you on, of course, but can't help but feel this will be like a bout between Ivan Drago v Tony Drago would!

[kidoncricketer]

lol, its a sure thing that del boy will woop his ass,
the irish one that is .

best of luck broads.,