Trainer By Month System (December) - OHR

**The Duke** · 28-11-09, 05:19 PM

Trainer By Month System – With A Twist

I’ve been looking at a few ways of livening the place up a little of late, and especially the ‘Systems’ area. Now those of you who have known me long enough will know I’m not really a big fan of National Hunt racing and therefore very rarely bet on it.

I do however notice that trainers over the sticks tend to follow a similar pattern with when they get there horses to peak each season, and you can profit by following this very simple system.

I’m going to begin with the month of December, and the trainers you want to be following during this month of the year are Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, and David Pipe.

Backing each horse from these three stables blind over the last 5 seasons (from 2003) in the month of December will have resulted in a profit of £2,137.60 to £10 level stakes.

The year on year stats are as follows in year order…

2008 – Bets: 193 – Wins: 36 – P/L: -£33.90 – SR: 18.65%
2007 – Bets: 187 – Wins: 35 – P/L: £673.30 – SR: 18.72%
2006 – Bets: 243 – Wins: 57 – P/L: £943.40 – SR: 23.55%
2005 – Bets: 134 – Wins: 33 – P/L: £350.20 – SR: 24.63%
2004 – Bets: 133 – Wins: 24 – P/L: -£401.40 – SR: 18.05%
2003 – Bets: 132 – Wins: 28 – P/L: £606.00 – SR: 21.21%

Quite a heavy loss in 2004, and a minor loss last year in 2008, but an overall profit of £2,137.60 for £10 units, working at a strike-rate of around 21% (20.86% to be precise). The place strike-rate for all the years combined is at 41.92% but as you can imagine from such well connected yards, the profit from each-way betting is slightly lower than when backing outright win.

So I decided to try and reduce the amount of losses from 2004 and 2008 and see if there was anything in the patterns which has led to this leaking of funds. I decided by going by track, and it is interesting to note, the track with the most profit is indeed Ascot.

So I’ve taken out the tracks which have shown a loss throughout the month of December over the last 5 years, and I am now left with…

Ascot, Bangor, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Exeter, Folkestone, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Ludlow, Taunton, Towcester, Warwick.

Still a big enough selection to ensure this is a truly run system, but the amount of bets have almost been halved now down to 557 bets throughout December, with 123 wins and a minor increase on the strike-rate (22.08%).

I’ve compiled the year on year stats below for your viewing…

2008 – Bets: 115 – Wins: 20 – P/L: £171.70 – SR: 17.39%
2007 – Bets: 93 – Wins: 21 – P/L: £964.80 – SR: 22.58%
2006 – Bets: 138 – Wins: 34 – P/L: £913.40 – SR: 24.64%
2005 – Bets: 65 – Wins: 16 – P/L: £221.30 – SR: 24.62%
2004 – Bets: 69 – Wins: 16 – P/L: -£27.30 – SR: 23.19%
2003 – Bets: 77 – Wins: 16 – P/L: £674.90 – SR: 20.78%

As you can see that by following horses from just the tracks mentioned above, you’ve already cut down the -£400 loss from 2004, to just £27.30 – and the minor loss suffered in 2008 is now a profit of £171.70 so immediately we’ve made progress on the system front.

Overall Breakdown
Bets: 557
Wins: 123
SR: 22.08%
Profit: £2,918.80
Places: 248
PSR: 44.52%

This system will begin from December 1st 2009, and will run right up until the last day of the month, and hopefully will make a few quid profit in the process ahead of the festive celebrations.

System Rules:
Trainers Followed: Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, David Pipe
Tracks Used: Ascot, Bangor, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Exeter, Folkestone, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Ludlow, Taunton, Towcester, Warwick.
Month: December Only
Staking: £10 win single per qualifier

broadsword · 28-11-09, 05:54 PM

Sounds like a good un jay,good luck

Funnily enough I was on about this with one of my mates Just before the Jumps started and I was thinking of followin Twiston davies because he always fires early on,Nicholls and Henderson because they seem to win everything that is worth winning.I didn't follow this through but I'm kind of wishing I had

Palmersears · 28-11-09, 06:09 PM

Sounds a damn sight better than the systems I'm currently trialing that's for sure

Best of British Jamie

Retroneous · 29-11-09, 12:03 AM

Nice one Jamie. Superb work, fella. I'll be following this one closely, and no mistake.

jtw1 · 29-11-09, 12:53 PM

Best of luck mate , previous results look very encouraging

broadsword · 30-11-09, 02:31 PM

Henderson 4 timer today ain't a bad start mate

andthereoff · 30-11-09, 03:34 PM

Looks good Dukeez, can't wait to start piling on

**The Duke** · 30-11-09, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by broadsword

Henderson 4 timer today ain't a bad start mate

Doesn't start until tomorrow squire.

broadsword · 30-11-09, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by The Duke

Doesn't start until tomorrow squire.

Typical

Nobody told Henderson he was supposed to wait until tommorow to start firing,I'll buy him a decent calendar for next year

**The Duke** · 02-12-09, 05:01 PM

Finally it would appear we have some qualifiers.

1:05 Leicester - Epee Celeste -10.00
2:35 Leicester - El Distintivo -10.00
3:05 Leicester - Cloud Nine -10.00
3:35 Leicester - Quinte De Chatelet +18.75

£10 win single on each.

Palmersears · 02-12-09, 05:03 PM

I was just on my way here to ponder possible entries tomorrow, excellent stuff. Good luck mate

**The Duke** · 03-12-09, 09:50 PM

Rolling Balance: -11.25

Tomorrow's Qualifiers:
12:30 Exeter - Sona Sasta NR & Cricket Boy -10.00 & Guydus -10.00
1:00 Exeter - Stow -10.00
2:20 Exeter - Puet Etre Sivola -10.00
2:45 Exeter - Shali San -10.00

**The Duke** · 04-12-09, 05:53 PM

Rolling Balance: -61.25

Terrible afternoon today, two fallers and all the Pipe horses ran shocking races. No qualifiers tomorrow as non of the tracks used in the testing of this system are in action, so will return shortly.

Hopefully things begin to pick up sooner rather than later.

Palmersears · 06-12-09, 02:49 PM

3/1 and 7/1 winners for Mr Pipe at Warwick today Jamie boy

**The Duke** · 06-12-09, 03:30 PM

Indeed. Felt worse for wear today after a big session last night so couldn't put the qualifiers up for today but people will have known what to look for anyway so it's all good.

Today's Qualifiers would have been...

12:40W - Aigle D'Or -10.00 & Quartz De Thaix -10.00
1:40W - Our Vic +30.00 & Miko De Beauchene -10.00
2:40W - Jubilee Queen -10.00 & Ballycracken -10.00
3:40W - Chartreux +70.00 & Anquetta -10.00

+40.00 for today, and rolling balance is now: -21.25

No tracks are on which qualify tomorrow, so will be back Tuesday if we have any that meet the rules.

skydog · 06-12-09, 09:01 PM

Only just seen this J. Good luck with it,just hope Venetias horse's start running a bit better,they usually do in December so fingers crossed.

skydog · 08-12-09, 08:27 PM

Should have added Fontwell mate,2 runners 2 winners today for Venetia.

Nicky had a shedload down to run at Leicester tomorrow but not sure how many are declared

**The Duke** · 08-12-09, 10:52 PM

Fontwell was showing a loss I'm afraid over the 5yr period. Not to worry....

Tomorrow's Qualifiers:
12:40 - Wembley Way -10.00 & Ranjobaie -10.00
2:40 - Tanks For That -10.00
3:10 - Hohlethelonely -10.00

All at Leicester.

**The Duke** · 10-12-09, 07:51 AM

So we gave back our last profit yesterday and the the running balance now stands at...

Running Balance: -61.25

Today looks like being make or break for the system with the amount of qualifiers, I just hope we get some luck.

12:30 Huntingdon - Painter Man
1:00 Huntingdon - Miss Sarenne
1:10 Ludlow - Accordeon
2:00 Huntingdon - Something Wells
2:10 Ludlow - Forty Acers & Just Smudge
2:20 Taunton - Regain Du Charbonneau
2:30 Huntingdon - River Beauty & Kerada
2:40 Ludlow - Cartier Opera
3:30 Huntingdon - Stratigic Gale
3:40 Ludlow - Ceilidh Royal

Good luck.

Retroneous · 10-12-09, 02:42 PM

Crossbar with Strategic Gale at 12s.

Retroneous · 10-12-09, 10:31 PM

An unlucky day there, chap. Keep it going...history doesn't lie! Only needs one decent-priced winner (of which a couple came close) and we're back in the black.

Palmersears · 11-12-09, 04:21 PM

6/1 and 5/1 winners today Jamie pal

**The Duke** · 14-12-09, 03:49 PM

Sorry I haven't been able to post up a list of qualifiers in recent days, been a touch busy. However I do have something which calculates these for me each day and it suggests the current totals are.

Profit/Loss: -£136.00
Bets: 56
Wins: 10
S/R: 17.86%

Not a great first two weeks of December but hopefully we can kick on now into the later part with a few juicy priced winners to get us back in the black.

No qualifiers today, not sure about tomorrow either at the moment.

**The Duke** · 19-12-09, 09:04 AM

Update:

Profit/Loss: -£151.00
Bets: 62
Wins: 12
S/R: 19.35%

No qualifiers today.

**The Duke** · 04-01-10, 01:46 PM

Final Totals:
Bets: 111
Wins: 24
Profit/Loss: -£60.50
S-Rate: 21.62%

We ended up averting a total disaster pulling back some points towards the end of the season, but for a few near misses we may actually have ended up in profit.

I'm going to continue this system into January, and will be put up in a new thread. I will continue the rolling profit/loss as seen above into January.

28-11-09, 05:19 PM	#1 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Trainer By Month System (December) Trainer By Month System – With A Twist I’ve been looking at a few ways of livening the place up a little of late, and especially the ‘Systems’ area. Now those of you who have known me long enough will know I’m not really a big fan of National Hunt racing and therefore very rarely bet on it. I do however notice that trainers over the sticks tend to follow a similar pattern with when they get there horses to peak each season, and you can profit by following this very simple system. I’m going to begin with the month of December, and the trainers you want to be following during this month of the year are Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, and David Pipe. Backing each horse from these three stables blind over the last 5 seasons (from 2003) in the month of December will have resulted in a profit of £2,137.60 to £10 level stakes. The year on year stats are as follows in year order… 2008 – Bets: 193 – Wins: 36 – P/L: -£33.90 – SR: 18.65% 2007 – Bets: 187 – Wins: 35 – P/L: £673.30 – SR: 18.72% 2006 – Bets: 243 – Wins: 57 – P/L: £943.40 – SR: 23.55% 2005 – Bets: 134 – Wins: 33 – P/L: £350.20 – SR: 24.63% 2004 – Bets: 133 – Wins: 24 – P/L: -£401.40 – SR: 18.05% 2003 – Bets: 132 – Wins: 28 – P/L: £606.00 – SR: 21.21% Quite a heavy loss in 2004, and a minor loss last year in 2008, but an overall profit of £2,137.60 for £10 units, working at a strike-rate of around 21% (20.86% to be precise). The place strike-rate for all the years combined is at 41.92% but as you can imagine from such well connected yards, the profit from each-way betting is slightly lower than when backing outright win. So I decided to try and reduce the amount of losses from 2004 and 2008 and see if there was anything in the patterns which has led to this leaking of funds. I decided by going by track, and it is interesting to note, the track with the most profit is indeed Ascot. So I’ve taken out the tracks which have shown a loss throughout the month of December over the last 5 years, and I am now left with… Ascot, Bangor, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Exeter, Folkestone, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Ludlow, Taunton, Towcester, Warwick. Still a big enough selection to ensure this is a truly run system, but the amount of bets have almost been halved now down to 557 bets throughout December, with 123 wins and a minor increase on the strike-rate (22.08%). I’ve compiled the year on year stats below for your viewing… 2008 – Bets: 115 – Wins: 20 – P/L: £171.70 – SR: 17.39% 2007 – Bets: 93 – Wins: 21 – P/L: £964.80 – SR: 22.58% 2006 – Bets: 138 – Wins: 34 – P/L: £913.40 – SR: 24.64% 2005 – Bets: 65 – Wins: 16 – P/L: £221.30 – SR: 24.62% 2004 – Bets: 69 – Wins: 16 – P/L: -£27.30 – SR: 23.19% 2003 – Bets: 77 – Wins: 16 – P/L: £674.90 – SR: 20.78% As you can see that by following horses from just the tracks mentioned above, you’ve already cut down the -£400 loss from 2004, to just £27.30 – and the minor loss suffered in 2008 is now a profit of £171.70 so immediately we’ve made progress on the system front. Overall Breakdown Bets: 557 Wins: 123 SR: 22.08% Profit: £2,918.80 Places: 248 PSR: 44.52% This system will begin from December 1st 2009, and will run right up until the last day of the month, and hopefully will make a few quid profit in the process ahead of the festive celebrations. System Rules: Trainers Followed: Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, David Pipe Tracks Used: Ascot, Bangor, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Exeter, Folkestone, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Ludlow, Taunton, Towcester, Warwick. Month: December Only Staking: £10 win single per qualifier __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

02-12-09, 05:01 PM	#10 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Finally it would appear we have some qualifiers. 1:05 Leicester - Epee Celeste -10.00 2:35 Leicester - El Distintivo -10.00 3:05 Leicester - Cloud Nine -10.00 3:35 Leicester - Quinte De Chatelet +18.75 £10 win single on each. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application Last edited by The Duke; 03-12-09 at 09:40 PM.. Reason: updating the results.

03-12-09, 09:50 PM	#12 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Rolling Balance: -11.25 Tomorrow's Qualifiers: 12:30 Exeter - Sona Sasta NR & Cricket Boy -10.00 & Guydus -10.00 1:00 Exeter - Stow -10.00 2:20 Exeter - Puet Etre Sivola -10.00 2:45 Exeter - Shali San -10.00 __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

04-12-09, 05:53 PM	#13 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Rolling Balance: -61.25 Terrible afternoon today, two fallers and all the Pipe horses ran shocking races. No qualifiers tomorrow as non of the tracks used in the testing of this system are in action, so will return shortly. Hopefully things begin to pick up sooner rather than later. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

06-12-09, 03:30 PM	#15 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Indeed. Felt worse for wear today after a big session last night so couldn't put the qualifiers up for today but people will have known what to look for anyway so it's all good. Today's Qualifiers would have been... 12:40W - Aigle D'Or -10.00 & Quartz De Thaix -10.00 1:40W - Our Vic +30.00 & Miko De Beauchene -10.00 2:40W - Jubilee Queen -10.00 & Ballycracken -10.00 3:40W - Chartreux +70.00 & Anquetta -10.00 +40.00 for today, and rolling balance is now: -21.25 No tracks are on which qualify tomorrow, so will be back Tuesday if we have any that meet the rules. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

28-11-09, 05:54 PM	#2 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	Sounds like a good un jay,good luck Funnily enough I was on about this with one of my mates Just before the Jumps started and I was thinking of followin Twiston davies because he always fires early on,Nicholls and Henderson because they seem to win everything that is worth winning.I didn't follow this through but I'm kind of wishing I had

28-11-09, 06:09 PM	#3 (permalink)
Palmersears Group 1 Level Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester vCash: 1500	Sounds a damn sight better than the systems I'm currently trialing that's for sure Best of British Jamie

29-11-09, 12:03 AM	#4 (permalink)
Retroneous Group 2 Level Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Exeter, Devon vCash: 3300	Nice one Jamie. Superb work, fella. I'll be following this one closely, and no mistake.

29-11-09, 12:53 PM	#5 (permalink)
jtw1 Group 1 Level Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland vCash: 1750	Best of luck mate , previous results look very encouraging

30-11-09, 02:31 PM	#6 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	Henderson 4 timer today ain't a bad start mate

30-11-09, 03:34 PM	#7 (permalink)
andthereoff Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Oct 2008	Looks good Dukeez, can't wait to start piling on

02-12-09, 05:03 PM	#11 (permalink)
Palmersears Group 1 Level Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester vCash: 1500	I was just on my way here to ponder possible entries tomorrow, excellent stuff. Good luck mate

06-12-09, 02:49 PM	#14 (permalink)
Palmersears Group 1 Level Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester vCash: 1500	3/1 and 7/1 winners for Mr Pipe at Warwick today Jamie boy

06-12-09, 09:01 PM	#16 (permalink)
skydog The Dawg Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Sheffield vCash: 750	Only just seen this J. Good luck with it,just hope Venetias horse's start running a bit better,they usually do in December so fingers crossed.

08-12-09, 08:27 PM	#17 (permalink)
skydog The Dawg Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Sheffield vCash: 750	Should have added Fontwell mate,2 runners 2 winners today for Venetia. Nicky had a shedload down to run at Leicester tomorrow but not sure how many are declared

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08-12-09, 10:52 PM	#18 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Fontwell was showing a loss I'm afraid over the 5yr period. Not to worry.... Tomorrow's Qualifiers: 12:40 - Wembley Way -10.00 & Ranjobaie -10.00 2:40 - Tanks For That -10.00 3:10 - Hohlethelonely -10.00 All at Leicester. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

10-12-09, 07:51 AM	#19 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	So we gave back our last profit yesterday and the the running balance now stands at... Running Balance: -61.25 Today looks like being make or break for the system with the amount of qualifiers, I just hope we get some luck. 12:30 Huntingdon - Painter Man 1:00 Huntingdon - Miss Sarenne 1:10 Ludlow - Accordeon 2:00 Huntingdon - Something Wells 2:10 Ludlow - Forty Acers & Just Smudge 2:20 Taunton - Regain Du Charbonneau 2:30 Huntingdon - River Beauty & Kerada 2:40 Ludlow - Cartier Opera 3:30 Huntingdon - Stratigic Gale 3:40 Ludlow - Ceilidh Royal Good luck. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

10-12-09, 02:42 PM	#20 (permalink)
Retroneous Group 2 Level Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Exeter, Devon vCash: 3300	Crossbar with Strategic Gale at 12s.

10-12-09, 10:31 PM	#21 (permalink)
Retroneous Group 2 Level Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Exeter, Devon vCash: 3300	An unlucky day there, chap. Keep it going...history doesn't lie! Only needs one decent-priced winner (of which a couple came close) and we're back in the black.

11-12-09, 04:21 PM	#22 (permalink)
Palmersears Group 1 Level Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester vCash: 1500	6/1 and 5/1 winners today Jamie pal

14-12-09, 03:49 PM	#23 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Sorry I haven't been able to post up a list of qualifiers in recent days, been a touch busy. However I do have something which calculates these for me each day and it suggests the current totals are. Profit/Loss: -£136.00 Bets: 56 Wins: 10 S/R: 17.86% Not a great first two weeks of December but hopefully we can kick on now into the later part with a few juicy priced winners to get us back in the black. No qualifiers today, not sure about tomorrow either at the moment. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

19-12-09, 09:04 AM	#24 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Update: Profit/Loss: -£151.00 Bets: 62 Wins: 12 S/R: 19.35% No qualifiers today. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

04-01-10, 01:46 PM	#25 (permalink)
The Duke King Of The Sand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Birmingham vCash: 3075	Final Totals: Bets: 111 Wins: 24 Profit/Loss: -£60.50 S-Rate: 21.62% We ended up averting a total disaster pulling back some points towards the end of the season, but for a few near misses we may actually have ended up in profit. I'm going to continue this system into January, and will be put up in a new thread. I will continue the rolling profit/loss as seen above into January. __________________ OHRacing: Homepage OHRacing: On Facebook OHRacing: On Twitter OHRacing: Facebook/Board Application

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