Systems Trio

[Palmersears]

Inspired by jtw1 and his NH system, I had a look round the site he found them from, and have picked out three other systems which appear to be hugely profitable. I shall document their success/failure in here, and see how we get on.

Essentially the three systems are as follows:

1. Recent Winners

• On any day, select the horse which has the least number of days since its last win.

• If there is more than one qualifier in different races on the same day, they are all bet equally to win.

• If there is more than one qualifier in the same race, the race will be ignored.

• System applies to UK races only.

Today's qualifiers:

6:00 Kempton- Earlsmedic

2. In-form Distance Winners

• Bet any horse that won its last race, provided that the win came within the last ten days, and provided that it has also previously won over the distance of today's race.

• Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

• System applies to both flat and NH racing.

• System applies to UK races only.

Today's qualifiers (Brace yourselves):

12:15 Haydock- Candle
1:15 Haydock- Thumbs Up
2:30 Lingfield- Spiritual Art
3:05 Lingfield- Ebraam
3:40 Lingfield- Tishu
6:00 Kempton- Earlsmedic
7:15 Wolverhmpton- Just Jimmy
8:15 Wolverhampton- Mass Rally
9:15 Wolverhampton- Bel Cantor

3. Front Runners In Small Fields

• Concentrate only on races containing seven runners or less.

• In such events, check for horses to have previously made all the running to win a race in the same code as today's (Flat or NH). To avoid confusion, the term 'made all' (or 'made virtually all') in the Racing Post comments-in-running is the key factor, unless it is otherwise obvious from their commentary that the horse led from start to finish.

• Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Qualifiers:

None today.


I shall be paper trading for 100 bets, just like the initial systems did, and see how we get on. I'll whack results up in here. Note that all bets will be £5 win singles placed at the respective SP's.

[jtw1]

Good luck mate

[broadsword]

Very interesting Palmer and as with every thread you place your golden touch on looks sure to be another quality read.

Top stuff

[The Duke]

Good luck Palmer.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

1. Recent Winners Today's qualifiers: 6:00 Kempton- Earlsmedic 1st @11/4 2. In-form Distance Winners Today's qualifiers (Brace yourselves): 12:15 Haydock- Candle 3rd @9/1 1:15 Haydock- Thumbs Up 4th @12/1 2:30 Lingfield- Spiritual Art 4th @11/4 3:05 Lingfield- Ebraam 2nd @20/1 3:40 Lingfield- Tishu 6th @18/1 6:00 Kempton- Earlsmedic 1st @11/4 7:15 Wolverhmpton- Just Jimmy 5th @12/1 8:15 Wolverhampton- Mass Rally 1st @11/10 9:15 Wolverhampton- Bel Cantor 2nd @6/1

All of which leaves us with the following:

Recent Winners

Staked (Daily): 5
Returned (Daily): 18.75
Overall LSP: 13.75

System 1 gets off to a flying start thanks to Earlsmedic

In-form Distance Winners

Staked (Daily): 45
Returned (Daily): 29.25
Overall LSP: -15.75

Not such a good day for System 2, with a loss made overall. This isn't altogether a surprise given the avarage odds were 10.29 It's worth noting however that were it not for a couple of collective lengths we would have secured a couple of nicely priced winner at 20/1 and 6/1, so the very early signs look decent.

There's nothing for System 2 tomorrow, and I shall get the selections up for Systems 1 & 3 when I know the none-runners in the morning.

[Palmersears]

Right then, today:

1. Recent Winners

Today's qualifiers:

2:10 Towcester- Hareem

Nothing for the other two systems.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

Right then, today: 1. Recent Winners Today's qualifiers: 2:10 Towcester- Hareem 2nd @8/1

Staked (Overall): 10pts
Returned: 18.75pts
Overall LSP: 8.75pts

Another close call today, but we must stick rigidly to our win singles.

Early signs suggest a couple for Systems 1 & 3 tomorrow, but I'll update around midday.

[Palmersears]

System 1. Recent Winners

Today's qualifiers:

3:40 Kempton- Calzaghe

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields

Today's qualifiers:

1:25 Kempton- Wychwoods Legend

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 1. Recent Winners Today's qualifiers: 3:40 Kempton- Calzaghe 1st @5/6

Staked (Overall): 15pts
Returned: 27.90pts
Overall LSP: 12.90pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields Today's qualifiers: 1:25 Kempton- Wychwoods Legend 3rd @9/1

Staked (Overall): 5pts
Returned: 0pts
Overall LSP: -5pts

[The Duke]

System 1 going well so far...

[Palmersears]

System 1. Recent Winners

1:00 Southwell- Taper Jean Girl

System 2. In-form Distance Winners

1:00 Southwell- Taper Jean Girl
System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields

12:40 Lingfield- Babe Hefferon

[FMH]

Good stuff so far Palmer.

Interesting to note that a few of the winners were highlighted in both systems.....maybe worth looking into.

Might also be worth looking into combining it with JTW's top weight system, I used to run a similar one:

Top Weight
Won LTO over Course and Distance
Tight Track (seemed to work well on the a/w)

might run a thread on this if i ever get time. Maybe include the pareto principle (20% of jockeys win 80% of races) and JTW's drop in class method.

[Palmersears]

Indeed FMH. I'm reluctant to fiddle with things too much until all three systems have run their course however. It's also worth noting that System 2 is essentially the same as the System 1, however it has the added variable of a distance win thrown in to try and narrow down the number of selections. Hence you will get an overlap frequently.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 1. Recent Winners 1:00 Southwell- Taper Jean Girl 9th @5/2

Staked (Overall): 25pts
Returned: 32.90pts
LSP: 7.90pts

NOTE: Shadows Lengthen was a NR. The above was the next best. Apologies for the late edit, only noticed 30 minutes ago.

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 2. In-form Distance Winners 1:00 Southwell- Taper Jean Girl 9th @5/2

Staked (Overall): 55pts
Returned: 34.25pts
LSP: -20.75pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields 12:40 Lingfield- Babe Hefferon 2nd @5/2

Staked (Overall): 10pts
Returned: 0pts
LSP: -10pts

A poor day all told, but we must move swiftly on to tomorrow!

[Palmersears]

System 1. Recent Winners

Today's qualifiers:

9:20 Kempton- Kings Colour

System 2. In-form Distance Winners

Today's qualifiers:

1:30 Lingfield- Monashee Rock
9:20 Kempton- Kings Colour

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 1. Recent Winners Today's qualifiers: 9:20 Kempton- Kings Colour 2nd @13/8

Staked (Overall): 30pts
Returned: 32.90pts
LSP: 2.90pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 2. In-form Distance Winners Today's qualifiers: 1:30 Lingfield- Monashee Rock 2nd @9/1 9:20 Kempton- Kings Colour 2nd @13/8

Staked (Overall): 65pts
Returned: 34.25pts
LSP: -30.75pts

A frustrating day with two seconds, but it's still early days and we move towards the weekend still optimistic.

Tomorrow's qualifiers:

System 1. Recent Winners

3:15 Newbury- Harouet

System 2. In-form Distance Winners

3:15 Newbury- Harouet
5:30 Kempton- Imjin River
7:00 Kempton- Lyra's Daemon

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields
12:45 Uttoxeter- Horsford
12:55 Newbury- Lady An Co
1:20 Uttoxeter- Feeling

[The Duke]

Three seconds more like mate. Crossbar being hit at the moment, but hopefully the winners enclosure lurks tomorrow for ya.

Feeling has been tipped up in Paul's system thread too, so hopefully that'll go in for ya both.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

Tomorrow's qualifiers: System 1. Recent Winners 3:15 Newbury- Harouet 7th @3/1

Staked: 35pts
Returned: 32.90pts
LSP: -2.10pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 2. In-form Distance Winners 3:15 Newbury- Harouet 7th @3/1 5:30 Kempton- Imjin River 3rd @7/4 7:00 Kempton- Lyra's Daemon 5th @10/1

Staked: 80pts
Returned: 34.25pts
LSP: -45.75pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields 12:45 Uttoxeter- Horsford 3rd @5/2 12:55 Newbury- Lady An Co 5th @11/4 1:20 Uttoxeter- Feeling 5th @5/1

Staked: 25pts
Returned: 0pts
LSP: -25pts

A day best forgotten in all honesty, with few even placing. Still, we're not even a quarter of the way into it yet

Tomorrows:

System 1. Recent Winners

2:30 Lingfield: Jarrow

System 2. In-form Distance Winners

1:00 Newbury- Prince Pippin

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields

2:30 Lingfield: Jarrow
1:00 Newbury- Prince Pippin

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 1. Recent Winners 2:30 Lingfield: Jarrow 3rd @1/4

Staked (Overall): 40pts
Returned: 32.90pts
LSP: -7.90pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 2. In-form Distance Winners 1:00 Newbury- Prince Pippin 3rd @12/1

Staked (Overall): 85pts
Returned: 34.25pts
LSP: -50.75pts

Originally Posted by Palmersears

System 3. Front-runners in Small Fields 2:30 Lingfield: Jarrow 3rd @1/4 1:00 Newbury- Prince Pippin 3rd @12/1

Staked (Overall): 35pts
Returned: 0pts
LSP: -35pts

A truely crap way to end the first week, we can't even land a 1/4 winner at the moment

In the midst of an assignment on the aerobic endurance of football at the moment which is infinitely mor exciting at the moment, so tomorrw's qualifiers as and when I can tear myself away

[Palmersears]

Right then, enough of aerobic football endurance for today. Tomorrow's qualifiers on what I'm sure will be a good day:

System 1. Recent Winners

1:10 Lingfield- Spinning Bailiwick

System 2. In-form Distance Winners

5:50 Wolverhampton- Perlachy

I'll check for NR's in the morning, but that looks like being your lot for tomorrow.

[Palmersears]

Ha, it would appear I've been putting the wrong horses in the wrong categories from time to time As such I've decided I'll knock this on the head until the New Year and we can start afresh from there.

[Palmersears]

Behold, for this has returned! In addition I'm also goign to run another one, which is:

System 22: The Benefit Of Previous Experience

Rules: In races where more than half the field is unraced, bet the shortest-priced runner with previous experience. For price comparison use Racing Post tissues. If there is more than on qualifier in a race there is no bet for that race. System applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat). Staking: 5pts to win on each selection.

This has been trialed on here before I believe, and was reasonably successful if I remember correctly. I'll see how it goes on the AW, and hopefully keep it going well into the start of the Flat season (Which is only 5 weeks away )

Anyway, systems so far:

Quote:

Benefit of Previous Experience: Selection Price Profit/Loss 6:15 Wolverhampton- Flaxen Lake

Quote:

Recent Winners: Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous Overall (Average/Profit) 2.28 -£1.00

Quote:

In-form Distance Winners: Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:05 Southwell- Absa Lutte NR £0.00 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 4:50 Southwell- Charging Indian 3.25 £11.25 1:45 Southwell- Maoi Chinn Tire 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2:55 Southwell- My Mate Mal Overall (Avergae/Profit) 3 £6.25

Quote:

Front-runners in Small Fields: Selection Price Profit/Loss 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 3:20 Bangor- Will Be Done 3:45 Kempton- Offaly Overall (Average/Profit) 1.80 £4.00

The above includes tomorrow's selections, but if you are mad enough to want to follow these, please note they may change with NR's, so cheack back until about midday to note any changes.

[Palmersears]

Today's:

Quote:

Benefit of Previous Experience Selection Price Profit/Loss 6:15 Wolverhampton- Flaxen Lake 2.38 -£5.00 1:25 Lingfield- Sunley Spinalonga Overall (Average/Profit) 2.38 -£5.00

Quote:

Front-runners in Small Fields Selection Price Profit/Loss 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 3:20 Bangor- Will Be Done 5.00 -£5.00 3:45 Kempton- Offaly 101.00 -£5.00 1:55 Lingfield- Underworld Dandy Overall (Average/Profit) 35.93 -£6.00

Quote:

In-form Distance Winners Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:05 Southwell- Absa Lutte NR £0.00 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 4:50 Southwell- Charging Indian 3.25 £11.25 1:45 Southwell- Maoi Chinn Tire 3.25 -£5.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2.88 -£5.00 2:55 Southwell- My Mate Mal 3.25 £11.25 2:25 Lingfield- Tin Cha Woody 9:20 Wolverhampton- Quinsman Overall (Average/Profit) 3.08 £7.50

Quote:

Recent Winners Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2.88 -£5.00 7:20 Wolverhampton- Tiger Hawk Overall (Average/Profit) 2.48 -£6.00

[Palmersears]

A severe case of seconditis yesterday, but at least that means we're in the right area. Results and today's if applicable:

Quote:

Nenefit of Previous Experience Selection Price Profit/Loss 6:15 Wolverhampton- Flaxen Lake 2.38 -£5.00 1:25 Lingfield- Sunley Spinalonga 5.50 -£5.00 Overall (Average/Profit) 3.94 -£10.00

Quote:

Front-runners in Small Fields Selection Price Profit/Loss 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 3:20 Bangor- Will Be Done 5.00 -£5.00 3:45 Kempton- Offaly 101.00 -£5.00 1:55 Lingfield- Underworld Dandy 8.00 -£5.00 Overall (Average/Profit) 28.95 -£11.00

Quote:

In-form Distance Winners Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:05 Southwell- Absa Lutte NR £0.00 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 4:50 Southwell- Charging Indian 3.25 £11.25 1:45 Southwell- Maoi Chinn Tire 3.25 -£5.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2.88 -£5.00 2:55 Southwell- My Mate Mal 3.25 £11.25 2:25 Lingfield- Tin Cha Woody 3.75 -£5.00 9:20 Wolverhampton- Quinsman 5.00 -£5.00 5:00 Hereford- Letham Island Overall (Average/Profit) 3.45 -£2.50

Quote:

Recent Winners Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2.88 -£5.00 7:20 Wolverhampton- Tiger Hawk 3.75 -£5.00 4:20 Kempton- Sir Sandcliffe 5:00 Hereford- Letham Island Overall (Average/Profit) 2.80 -£11.00

[Palmersears]

Not so good today, but we forge onwards!

Quote:

Front-runners in Small Fields Selection Price Profit/Loss 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 3:20 Bangor- Will Be Done 5.00 -£5.00 3:45 Kempton- Offaly 101.00 -£5.00 1:55 Lingfield- Underworld Dandy 8.00 -£5.00 3:00 Plumpton- Giles Cross 4:40 Wolverhampton- Bookiesindex Girl Overall (Average/Profit) 28.95 -£11.00

Quote:

In-form Distance Winners Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:05 Southwell- Absa Lutte NR £0.00 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 4:50 Southwell- Charging Indian 3.25 £11.25 1:45 Southwell- Maoi Chinn Tire 3.25 -£5.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2.88 -£5.00 2:55 Southwell- My Mate Mal 3.25 £11.25 2:25 Lingfield- Tin Cha Woody 3.75 -£5.00 9:20 Wolverhampton- Quinsman 5.00 -£5.00 5:00 Hereford- Letham Island 2.75 -£5.00 2:00 Plumpton- Orzare 3:50 Catterick- Oenologue 4:20 Catterick- Lease Land 5:10 Wolverhampton- Dhhamaan Overall (Average/Profit) 3.36 -£7.50

Quote:

Recent Winners Selection Price Profit/Loss 2:25 Lingfield- Stanley Goodspeed 2.75 -£5.00 3:50 Southwell- Tiger Hawk 1.80 £4.00 2:20 Southwell- Colorous 2.88 -£5.00 7:20 Wolverhampton- Tiger Hawk 3.75 -£5.00 4:20 Kempton- Sir Sandcliffe 6.5 -£5.00 5:00 Hereford- Letham Island 2.75 -£5.00 5:10 Wolverhampton- Dhhamaan Overall (Average/Profit) 3.41 -£21.00