System 44 - OHR - Betting Forums

Old 06-12-09, 09:19 PM   #1 (permalink)
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System 44

As most of you will know by now i've been trialing this particular system from cdsystems.co.uk .
Here's the link to the page -http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/system.htm
The guy who runs the site has trialled a lot of systems using simple criteria and i've been impressed by the results from this one .
Although he has been using both NH and Flat races i've been more impressed by the NH results he's been achieving and here's the main list of selections and results so far -

1 - 14-Oct-09 Classic Clover 1st 9/2 26f-24f C4-C5
2 - 14-Oct-09 Silver Steel 1st 7/2 17f-16f C4-C4
3 - 19-Oct-09 Orchard King 1st 7/4 26f-26f C4-C3
4 - 23-Oct-09 Winsley Hill 1st 9/2 24f-25f C3-C3
5 - 25-Oct-09 I Hear Thunder 4th 15/2 22f-28f * C3-C2
6 - 30-Oct-09 Command Marshal 4th 7/4 20f-22f C4-C4
7 - 30-Oct-09 Dovedale 13th 3/1 19f-23f * C4-C4
8 - 06-Nov-09 Jump Jet 2nd 11/10 20f-22f C4-C4
9 - 07-Nov-09 Bob's Dream 1st 5/2 16f-17f C4-C4
10- 08-Nov-09 Cartier Opera UR 6/4 20f-26f * C4-C4
11- 08-Nov-09 Midnight Haze 2nd 5/2 21f-19f C4-C4
12- 11-Nov-09 Red Jester 2nd 9/2 16f-20f * C4-C4
13- 12-Nov-09 Isintshelovely 4th 8/1 17f-20f * C5-C4
14- 12-Nov-09 Cartier Opera UR 6/4 20f-19f C4-C5
15- 12-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 7/2 24f-24f C4-C4
16- 15-Nov-09 Dew Drop Inn 4th 8/13 26f-22f * C5-C5
17- 15-Nov-09 Pelo Du Bief 2nd 5/1 24f-29f * C4-C3
18- 17-Nov-09 Dusk 1st 11/4 24f-25f C5-C4
19- 17-Nov-09 Far More Serious 2nd 5/1 19f-21f C4-C3
20- 18-Nov-09 Take It There 1st 7/2 20f-20f C5-C4
21- 18-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 4/6f 17f-17f C5-C5
22- 19-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 10/3 24f-25f C4-C4
23- 19-Nov-09 Calzaghe NR
24- 20-Nov-09 Charingworth UR 6/4 20f-22f C4-C3
25- 23-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 5/6f 18f-16f C5-C4
26- 30-Nov-09 I'moncloudnine 2nd 2/1f 25f-22f * C3-C3
27- 30-Nov-09 Natural Action 1st 85/40 20f-22f C3-C4
28- 03-Dec-09 Timetoring unp 7/2f 20f-22f C4-C5
29- 03-Dec-09 Master Overseer 1st 5/6f 25f-25f C4-C3
30- 03-Dec-09 Carrickmines 1st 5/4f 17f-21f * C4-C4
31- 06-Dec-09 Magnetic Pole 3rd 11/4f 20f-16f* C5-C3

What i've done is apply what i consider a couple of sensible extra criteria and those are sticking to those selections that are running no more than 2f further/shorter than LTO and only 1 grade higher/lower than LTO.

That list then becomes the following -

1 - 14-Oct-09 Classic Clover 1st 9/2 26f-24f C4-C5
2 - 14-Oct-09 Silver Steel 1st 7/2 17f-16f C4-C4
3 - 19-Oct-09 Orchard King 1st 7/4 26f-26f C4-C3
4 - 23-Oct-09 Winsley Hill 1st 9/2 24f-25f C3-C3
5 - 30-Oct-09 Command Marshal 4th 7/4 20f-22f C4-C
6 - 06-Nov-09 Jump Jet 2nd 11/10 20f-22f C4-C4
7 - 07-Nov-09 Bob's Dream 1st 5/2 16f-17f C4-C4
8- 08-Nov-09 Midnight Haze 2nd 5/2 21f-19f C4-C4
9- 12-Nov-09 Cartier Opera UR 6/4 20f-19f C4-C5
10- 12-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 7/2 24f-24f C4-C4
11- 17-Nov-09 Dusk 1st 11/4 24f-25f C5-C4
12- 17-Nov-09 Far More Serious 2nd 5/1 19f-21f C4-C3
13- 18-Nov-09 Take It There 1st 7/2 20f-20f C5-C4
14- 18-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 4/6f 17f-17f C5-C5
15- 19-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 10/3 24f-25f C4-C4
16- 20-Nov-09 Charingworth UR 6/4 20f-22f C4-C3
17- 23-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 5/6f 18f-16f C5-C4
18- 30-Nov-09 Natural Action 1st 85/40 20f-22f C3-C4
19- 03-Dec-09 Timetoring unp 7/2f 20f-22f C4-C5
20- 03-Dec-09 Master Overseer 1st 5/6f 25f-25f C4-C3

That leave us with 20 selections of which 13 won and 16 would have returned a place bet profit .

A 10 level win stake would have returned 272.90pts PROFIT.

So to the 1st bet using the re-adjusted system using real money -

Bet 1 - Musselburgh 2.20 Natural Action 5pt win .
 
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Old 06-12-09, 09:43 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Btw here's the criteria for the original system -

System Trial 44: Penalties On Tight Tracks
Rules:
1. Identify all meetings to be held on tight tracks, as designated in the 'Tracks - Flat' and 'Tracks - NH' tables to be found in the Pro Betting Guide (main menu).
2. Identify any horse running under a penalty at these meetings. Horses running under a penalty are indicated on the Racing Post racecards by the penalty followed by an 'x' (eg. '6x') shown after its name.
3. Bet each to win, unless there is more than one qualifier in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that race.
4. System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:
5 pts to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
We have already seen how the effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight tracks. Horses incurring a weight penalty have shown good recent form, hence the penalty. If the effect of the penalty is negated by the type of track on which today's race is to be run, the horse can be given a greater chance of upholding its recent form than if the race were to be held at a more testing venue.
 
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Old 06-12-09, 09:45 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Here's the list of tracks considered to be 'TIGHT'--

AINTREE[MILDMAY]
BANGOR
CARTMEL
CATTERICK
MUSSLEBURGH
FAKENHAM
FONTWELL
HEREFORD
KELSO
KEMPTON
LINGFIELD
MARKET RASEN
NEWTON ABBOT
PERTH
PLUMPTON
SOUTHWELL
TAUNTON
WARWICK
WETHERBY
 
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Old 07-12-09, 07:25 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Bet 1 - Muss 2.20 Natural Action -3rd @ 11/4 22f-20f C4-C3
-5pts


System 44: Tuesday 8 December 2009

Fontwell 2.10 Ponchatrain
 
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Old 08-12-09, 08:17 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Bet 1 - Muss 2.20 Natural Action -3rd @ 11/4 22f-20f C4-C3 , -5pts
Bet 2 - Font 2.10 Ponchatrain - UR @ 7/4f 21f-20f C5-C5 , -10pts

No selections for tomorrow
 
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Old 14-12-09, 07:17 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Folkestone 2.00
Victory Surge

NO BET !! Just had a look and it's win last time out was over 16f and it's a 20f event tomorrow

Last edited by jtw1; 14-12-09 at 08:30 PM..
 
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Old 15-12-09, 11:34 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Folkestone was abandoned due to frost .

There's one which makes the original system at Bangor tomorrow but that race is 3f further than it's win LTO so it's a NO BET .

Bangor 1.10 Berwick Law
 
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Old 17-12-09, 10:08 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Uttoxeter 12.35 - Acknowledgement
 
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Old 18-12-09, 06:47 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jtw1 View Post
Uttoxeter 12.35 - Acknowledgement
Non-Runner
 
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Old 19-12-09, 10:06 AM   #10 (permalink)
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I'm sure thats the Ian Williams horse that hacked up (and was considerably well backed) the day before.

So yeah it would have been.
 
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Old 24-12-09, 10:59 PM   #11 (permalink)
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A very sound system, and one similar to his handicap topweights on tight tracks system, which was spectacularly successful.

Steve J has been going on the net for over 10 years now. I remember when he was on the old Racing365 forum, and when he started his site. He's got a lot of credibility with jockeys, commentators, others in the industry, and discerning punters - credibility built up through sheer hard work and an astonishing amount of rigorous analysis. He's also a gentleman.

He was originally an accountant (whether chartered or not I am not sure), and may still work in that field.
 
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Old 18-01-10, 11:05 PM   #12 (permalink)
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We're back !!!!!

Folkestone 2.10 She's Humble 17f-16f Cl4 -Cl4
 
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Old 20-01-10, 06:54 PM   #13 (permalink)
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SHE'S HUMBLE - 3rd

Thursday - Taunton 3.00 - NOVIKOV Cl3-Cl3 16f - 17f
 
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Old 24-01-10, 09:31 PM   #14 (permalink)
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NOVIKOV - 3rd

Monday - NOUN DE LA THINTE - 1.25 LINGFIELD . 21f-21f , c3-c4
 
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Old 25-01-10, 07:45 PM   #15 (permalink)
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NOUN DE LA THINTE 1st @ 2/1 f


The story so far -

Bet 1 - Muss 2.20 Natural Action -3rd @ 11/4 , 22f-20f C4-C3 , -5pts
Bet 2 - Font 2.10 Ponchatrain - UR @ 7/4f , 21f-20f C5-C5 , -10pts
Bet 3 - Folk 2.10 She's Humble - 3rd @ 2/1f, 17f-16f Cl4 -Cl4 , -15pts
Bet 4 - Taun 3.00 Novikov - 3rd @ 4/1 , 16f-17f Cl3-Cl3, -20pts
Bet 5 - Ling 1.25 Noun De La Thinte - 1st @ 2/1f , 21f-21f , c3-c4 -10pts

Placing's in bold are those where a return on the place market would have applied.
 
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Old 27-01-10, 08:25 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Weds - 2 in the one race !!!!! and it's the 4.00 at WARWICK

Senor Shane 19f-21f cl4-cl4
Noun De La Thinte 21f-21f , cl4-cl4
 
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Old 31-01-10, 11:26 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Senor Shane - unp
Noun De La Thinte - 2nd @ 11/8f


ONE CORNETTO carries a penalty today but as his last run was over 16f whereas this is over 20f so NO BET
 
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Old 01-02-10, 06:50 PM   #18 (permalink)
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ONE CORNETTO - unp

FRENCH TIES runs with a penalty in the 1.30 at Taunton on Tuesday but this is over 3f shorter than his prev win so once more - NO BET
 
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Old 04-02-10, 08:21 PM   #19 (permalink)
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FRENCH TIES was 2nd @ 3/1 but was a NO BET.

However , just like buses , you wait for days and then 3 come at once !!!

Bang - MAGIC SKY , 23f-24f , Cl 3-Cl2.

Catt - QUITO DU TRESOR , 20f-19f , Cl4-Cl3.

Catt - THE SNAIL , 25f-26f , Cl3-Cl4.
 
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Old 05-02-10, 07:51 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Bang - MAGIC SKY , 23f-24f , Cl 3-Cl2. Fell at the last when a length down in 3rd

Catt - QUITO DU TRESOR , 20f-19f , Cl4-Cl3. 3rd @ 7/2f

Catt - THE SNAIL , 25f-26f , Cl3-Cl4. Non runner


No runners tomorrow
 
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Old 07-02-10, 07:42 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Mon - 1.50 Lingfield - IT'S A CLASSIC 25f-24f , Cl4-Cl4.
 
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Old 08-02-10, 06:56 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jtw1 View Post
Mon - 1.50 Lingfield - IT'S A CLASSIC 25f-24f , Cl4-Cl4.

3rd @ 3/1 This has potential for a decent Place betting system !!!
 
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Old 10-02-10, 10:06 PM   #23 (permalink)
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ROAMING WEST carries a pen in the 5.05 at TAUNTON tomorrow[ Thursday] but ran LTO over 17f whereas this is over 25f , so a NO BET !!
 
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Old 13-02-10, 06:11 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Taunton - abnd

Sunday - LETHAM ISLAND 5.00 17f-17f , Cl5 - Cl5.
 
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Old 14-02-10, 07:28 PM   #25 (permalink)
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LETHAM ISLAND -unp

Mon - 3.50 Catterick - OENOLOUGE 19f-19f , Cl 4-Cl4
 
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