| | #1 (permalink) |
| World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland | System 44 As most of you will know by now i've been trialing this particular system from cdsystems.co.uk . Here's the link to the page -http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/system.htm The guy who runs the site has trialled a lot of systems using simple criteria and i've been impressed by the results from this one . Although he has been using both NH and Flat races i've been more impressed by the NH results he's been achieving and here's the main list of selections and results so far - 1 - 14-Oct-09 Classic Clover 1st 9/2 26f-24f C4-C5 2 - 14-Oct-09 Silver Steel 1st 7/2 17f-16f C4-C4 3 - 19-Oct-09 Orchard King 1st 7/4 26f-26f C4-C3 4 - 23-Oct-09 Winsley Hill 1st 9/2 24f-25f C3-C3 5 - 25-Oct-09 I Hear Thunder 4th 15/2 22f-28f * C3-C2 6 - 30-Oct-09 Command Marshal 4th 7/4 20f-22f C4-C4 7 - 30-Oct-09 Dovedale 13th 3/1 19f-23f * C4-C4 8 - 06-Nov-09 Jump Jet 2nd 11/10 20f-22f C4-C4 9 - 07-Nov-09 Bob's Dream 1st 5/2 16f-17f C4-C4 10- 08-Nov-09 Cartier Opera UR 6/4 20f-26f * C4-C4 11- 08-Nov-09 Midnight Haze 2nd 5/2 21f-19f C4-C4 12- 11-Nov-09 Red Jester 2nd 9/2 16f-20f * C4-C4 13- 12-Nov-09 Isintshelovely 4th 8/1 17f-20f * C5-C4 14- 12-Nov-09 Cartier Opera UR 6/4 20f-19f C4-C5 15- 12-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 7/2 24f-24f C4-C4 16- 15-Nov-09 Dew Drop Inn 4th 8/13 26f-22f * C5-C5 17- 15-Nov-09 Pelo Du Bief 2nd 5/1 24f-29f * C4-C3 18- 17-Nov-09 Dusk 1st 11/4 24f-25f C5-C4 19- 17-Nov-09 Far More Serious 2nd 5/1 19f-21f C4-C3 20- 18-Nov-09 Take It There 1st 7/2 20f-20f C5-C4 21- 18-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 4/6f 17f-17f C5-C5 22- 19-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 10/3 24f-25f C4-C4 23- 19-Nov-09 Calzaghe NR 24- 20-Nov-09 Charingworth UR 6/4 20f-22f C4-C3 25- 23-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 5/6f 18f-16f C5-C4 26- 30-Nov-09 I'moncloudnine 2nd 2/1f 25f-22f * C3-C3 27- 30-Nov-09 Natural Action 1st 85/40 20f-22f C3-C4 28- 03-Dec-09 Timetoring unp 7/2f 20f-22f C4-C5 29- 03-Dec-09 Master Overseer 1st 5/6f 25f-25f C4-C3 30- 03-Dec-09 Carrickmines 1st 5/4f 17f-21f * C4-C4 31- 06-Dec-09 Magnetic Pole 3rd 11/4f 20f-16f* C5-C3 What i've done is apply what i consider a couple of sensible extra criteria and those are sticking to those selections that are running no more than 2f further/shorter than LTO and only 1 grade higher/lower than LTO. That list then becomes the following - 1 - 14-Oct-09 Classic Clover 1st 9/2 26f-24f C4-C5 2 - 14-Oct-09 Silver Steel 1st 7/2 17f-16f C4-C4 3 - 19-Oct-09 Orchard King 1st 7/4 26f-26f C4-C3 4 - 23-Oct-09 Winsley Hill 1st 9/2 24f-25f C3-C3 5 - 30-Oct-09 Command Marshal 4th 7/4 20f-22f C4-C 6 - 06-Nov-09 Jump Jet 2nd 11/10 20f-22f C4-C4 7 - 07-Nov-09 Bob's Dream 1st 5/2 16f-17f C4-C4 8- 08-Nov-09 Midnight Haze 2nd 5/2 21f-19f C4-C4 9- 12-Nov-09 Cartier Opera UR 6/4 20f-19f C4-C5 10- 12-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 7/2 24f-24f C4-C4 11- 17-Nov-09 Dusk 1st 11/4 24f-25f C5-C4 12- 17-Nov-09 Far More Serious 2nd 5/1 19f-21f C4-C3 13- 18-Nov-09 Take It There 1st 7/2 20f-20f C5-C4 14- 18-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 4/6f 17f-17f C5-C5 15- 19-Nov-09 Fortification 1st 10/3 24f-25f C4-C4 16- 20-Nov-09 Charingworth UR 6/4 20f-22f C4-C3 17- 23-Nov-09 Calzaghe 1st 5/6f 18f-16f C5-C4 18- 30-Nov-09 Natural Action 1st 85/40 20f-22f C3-C4 19- 03-Dec-09 Timetoring unp 7/2f 20f-22f C4-C5 20- 03-Dec-09 Master Overseer 1st 5/6f 25f-25f C4-C3 That leave us with 20 selections of which 13 won and 16 would have returned a place bet profit . A 10 level win stake would have returned 272.90pts PROFIT. So to the 1st bet using the re-adjusted system using real money - Bet 1 - Musselburgh 2.20 Natural Action 5pt win . |
|
| | #2 (permalink) |
| World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland | Btw here's the criteria for the original system - System Trial 44: Penalties On Tight Tracks Rules: 1. Identify all meetings to be held on tight tracks, as designated in the 'Tracks - Flat' and 'Tracks - NH' tables to be found in the Pro Betting Guide (main menu). 2. Identify any horse running under a penalty at these meetings. Horses running under a penalty are indicated on the Racing Post racecards by the penalty followed by an 'x' (eg. '6x') shown after its name. 3. Bet each to win, unless there is more than one qualifier in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that race. 4. System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH). Staking: 5 pts to win on each qualifier. Logic: We have already seen how the effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight tracks. Horses incurring a weight penalty have shown good recent form, hence the penalty. If the effect of the penalty is negated by the type of track on which today's race is to be run, the horse can be given a greater chance of upholding its recent form than if the race were to be held at a more testing venue. |
|
| | #3 (permalink) |
| World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland | Here's the list of tracks considered to be 'TIGHT'-- AINTREE[MILDMAY] BANGOR CARTMEL CATTERICK MUSSLEBURGH FAKENHAM FONTWELL HEREFORD KELSO KEMPTON LINGFIELD MARKET RASEN NEWTON ABBOT PERTH PLUMPTON SOUTHWELL TAUNTON WARWICK WETHERBY |
|
| | #11 (permalink) |
| Low Grade Handicapper Join Date: Sep 2006 | A very sound system, and one similar to his handicap topweights on tight tracks system, which was spectacularly successful. Steve J has been going on the net for over 10 years now. I remember when he was on the old Racing365 forum, and when he started his site. He's got a lot of credibility with jockeys, commentators, others in the industry, and discerning punters - credibility built up through sheer hard work and an astonishing amount of rigorous analysis. He's also a gentleman. He was originally an accountant (whether chartered or not I am not sure), and may still work in that field. |
|
| | #15 (permalink) |
| World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland | NOUN DE LA THINTE 1st @ 2/1 f ![]() The story so far - Bet 1 - Muss 2.20 Natural Action -3rd @ 11/4 , 22f-20f C4-C3 , -5pts Bet 2 - Font 2.10 Ponchatrain - UR @ 7/4f , 21f-20f C5-C5 , -10pts Bet 3 - Folk 2.10 She's Humble - 3rd @ 2/1f, 17f-16f Cl4 -Cl4 , -15pts Bet 4 - Taun 3.00 Novikov - 3rd @ 4/1 , 16f-17f Cl3-Cl3, -20pts Bet 5 - Ling 1.25 Noun De La Thinte - 1st @ 2/1f , 21f-21f , c3-c4 -10pts Placing's in bold are those where a return on the place market would have applied. |
|
| | #19 (permalink) |
| World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland | FRENCH TIES was 2nd @ 3/1 but was a NO BET. However , just like buses , you wait for days and then 3 come at once !!! Bang - MAGIC SKY , 23f-24f , Cl 3-Cl2. Catt - QUITO DU TRESOR , 20f-19f , Cl4-Cl3. Catt - THE SNAIL , 25f-26f , Cl3-Cl4. |
|
| | #20 (permalink) |
| World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland | Bang - MAGIC SKY , 23f-24f , Cl 3-Cl2. Fell at the last when a length down in 3rd ![]() Catt - QUITO DU TRESOR , 20f-19f , Cl4-Cl3. 3rd @ 7/2f Catt - THE SNAIL , 25f-26f , Cl3-Cl4. Non runner No runners tomorrow |
|
![]() |
| Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
| |