Trends - OHR

**jtw1** · **27-06-08**, **10:44 PM**

Hello all , been invited to post my selections here and after a quick peruse of the forum i hope i can be a positive addition .
A quick summary of what i look at when making a selection -

I stick to Listed /Group races , preferably 4yo+ events but i do consider 3yo+ races but i'm a bit wary of these after the last few results.
I use the TRENDS secton of the RACING POST to try and find any obvious trends/bias's which these race's may throw up .
I don't consider Handicaps / Maidens.
I post these on a couple of other forums and so far this season i have a strike rate of 20 wins from 54 tips with a healthy profit of 800.83pts from 540pts staked .

Here's Saturdays selection's -

NEWMARKET 3.00 Listed 4yo+ 12f G/F
-------------------------------------------

9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under
9/10 were 4 or 5y olds
10/10 had winning form at 10/12f
10/10 were rated 99+
9/10 had ran that season and 8 had been placed in at least one of those races.
8/10 ran at Listed or Group class LTO ,other 2 were Cl 2 level.
7/10 had won/been placed in a Listed or Group race

Only 6 declared for this one and with CLASSIC PUNCH and GROUP CAPTAIN well in double figures betting wise i'm going to concentrate on the remaining 4 .

LION SANDS [4yo] has won a Listed race at Newmarket [14f] . Also won over the 12f and is rated 110 . Ran twice this season finishing 5th+4th and LTO was a Listed race.

TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] has won 5 times and 3 of those were Listed and 2 were at Newmarket. Rated 116 and has ran 4 times this season , winning twice inc last time in Listed race.

EASTERN ANTHEM [4yo] has won 1 race [8f] and been a close 2nd in 2 Listed events [11 + 12f]. Rated 109 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Only won at 8f but highlighted earlier it has been placed 2nd over 11+ 12f .

RED GALA [5yo] has won at Cl 2 level but been unp at Listed /Group level .Rated 107 , it has won 3 times [ once at 12f ]and ran in a Listed race LTO.

SUMMARY - RED GALA is the first to be rejected as it's best win at Class 2 and non-placing in Listed/Group company means it may lack a bit of class for this grade especially being a 5yo.

I'm going to have to delay giving a selection between the remaining 3 as EASTERN ANTHEM may not run due to the ground conditions .
Once that decision is made tomorrow i'll post the selection .

NEWMARKET 3.35 7f Grp 3 3yo+
-----------------------------------

Winners have ranged from 2 Favs to 2 16/1's and all prices in between.

10/10 had won at LISTED/GROUP level.
10/10 had won at least twice previously.
10/10 were Southern trained [ 7 Newmarket ]
10/10 had ran previously ran that season with 9 being placed 1st-4th at least once.
9/10 had won / been placed or beaten 2l or under in a Group race.
9/10 had won over 7f [ 7 more than once ]
9/9 were rated 107+.
8/10 ran at Listed /Group level LTO [other 2 were Cl 2 ]
7/10 were 4 or 5 y olds.

Thankfully there's no 3yo in the race and with VORTEX looking like starting around the 25/1 mark thats leaves the other 5 runners to consider.

APPALACIAN TRAIL [7yo] comes down from Scotland and has won 9 times with 3 Listed events amongst them. A winner at 7f five times and rated 112.
It has been placed 2nd twice in 2 Grp 3's ,inc LTO , but never won in Group company.

KING OF DIXIE [4yo] has 3 career wins to it's name but only at Class 3 at best .Rated 109 and has never ran in anything above Class 2 [3rd] .
Three times a distance winner and Southern trained but not , with respect to WJ KNIGHT, not by the usual Grade of trainer that wins this.

BLYTHE KNIGHT [8yo] is another Northern Trained horse that has won a couple of Grp 3's inc LTO. It has 9 wins to it's name but importantly none was over the 7f of todays race.
Rated 110 but only won once on G/F going which was a Class 3 three runner race .

ARMY OF ANGELS [6yo] is Southern trained [ Godolphin ] and has won 4 times inc 1 Listed race .
Rated 109 , this will be it's seasonal debut and has won once over 7f.
Has been placed 1st or 2nd in 9 of it's 11 runs but never won on it's seasonal debut in 3 attempts and has not tackled Group company before this race.
Would appear to prefer 8f judging by it's placement in the past .

RACER FOREVER [5yo] is trained at Newmarket by J GOSDEN and has won 3 times , one of which was a Listed event. It has been btn a max of three lengths in two Grp 3's and a Grp 2 .
Ran in a Cl 2 LTO at Royal Ascot where it was 11th btn only six and a quarter lengths .
2 of it's career wins were over 7f but is only rated 104 in the BHA ratings.

SUMMARY -

KING OF DIXIE fails on Grade of career wins and Trainer .
BLYTHE KNIGHT should find this 7f too sharp for it , esp on G/F going .
ARMY OF ANGELS may also find the 7f too sharp , esp on it's debut after 385 days off the track , as well as being a doubtful runner as the trainer has stated it will not run unless the ground is suitable.
APPALACHIAN TRAIL has a great chance after it's close 2nd LTO in a Grp 3 at HAYDOCK but it still has not won at GROUP level and being 7 yo it will find it harder to do so . [ btw i still hold the opinion the L PERRATT couldn't train ivy and the improvement in the stables form is purely down to I SEMPLE being installed as No 2 ; or No 1 ?? who knows ]
RACER FOREVER [5yo] is trained by the grade of trainer that has won this in the past as well as being a LISTED winner and having placed form at Grp 2+3 .
LTO ran a very creditable race in a 28 runner competitive Handicap at Royal Ascot and with the 7f over G/F not forseen as being a problem and J FORTUNE on board [ 7 placings from 15 mounts but only 2 in last 6 which inc a 2nd , btn a half length and that 6th at RA ] i beleive that around 10/1 is good value in this event.

**The Duke** · **27-06-08**, **11:00 PM**

Excellent stuff jtw, this is what our forum has been missing. I look forward to reading plenty more of your excellent postings on here.

Good luck for tomorrow.

**jtw1** · **27-06-08**, **11:08 PM**

**Bally** · **28-06-08**, **04:25 AM**

Good Stuff JTW, Welcome & Good Luck Tomorrow!

**givemeabreak** · **28-06-08**, **08:10 AM**

Cracking stuff mate, good luck and look forward to reading more of these

**jtw1** · **28-06-08**, **12:08 PM**

Cheers guys

Re the 3.00

And indeed EASTERN ANTHEM + ARMY OF ANGELS in the 3.35 are NR's

So that leaves us with 2 to consider -

TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] from H CECILS yard who has those 3 Listed wins to it's name and certainly likes the course.He should take the lead and make the running here and it's hard to see him being pulled back. Top rated on 116 i can't see LION SANDS being able to catch this one as it would prefer a longer distance , has beaten the selection over 14f and has an entry for the Irish Leger over that distance .
Odds-on Fav i'm afraid .

**jtw1** · **28-06-08**, **03:43 PM**

Nice start to posting here

RACER FOREVER 1st @ 6/1 Great ride from FORTUNE

TRANQUIL TIGER 2nd @ 8/11f Didn't take the lead as i expected but looked the winner when brought through 1f out , caught right on the line when he decided he'd had enough !!!

**The Duke** · **28-06-08**, **03:45 PM**

Excellent stuff with Racer Forever, only just hung on but it still pays the same

You got any thoughts for the Irish Derby tomorrow yet?

**givemeabreak** · **28-06-08**, **03:47 PM**

Originally Posted by jtw1

Nice start to posting here

RACER FOREVER 1st @ 6/1 Great ride from FORTUNE

TRANQUIL TIGER 2nd @ 8/11f Didn't take the lead as i expected but looked the winner when brought through 1f out , caught right on the line when he decided he'd had enough !!!

Top stuff was on each way on Racer at 8s

**jtw1** · **28-06-08**, **03:54 PM**

Originally Posted by The Duke

Excellent stuff with Racer Forever, only just hung on but it still pays the same

You got any thoughts for the Irish Derby tomorrow yet?

I've been giving the 3yo races a swerve of late and just sticking to the 4yo+ if i can .
You tend to know where you stand with them as there usually well exposed.

**jtw1** · **28-06-08**, **03:55 PM**

Originally Posted by givemeabreak

Top stuff was on each way on Racer at 8s

Well done mate

**jtw1** · **29-06-08**, **01:04 PM**

CURRAGH 4.35 Listed 8f 3yo+
---------------------------------

This race was downgraded in '01 when it was a Grp 2 race over 9f.

7/7 were returned at 5/1 or under
4 x 4yo from 18 runners
1 x 3yo from 25 runners
1 x 5yo+ from 18 runners
7/7 had won over 8f
7/7 had ran that season with 6 finishing either 1st or 2nd in at least one of those outings
6/7 had a BHA rating , of which 5 were 107+.
6/7 had winning/placed form in Listed/Group company.
5/7 ran in Listed/Group company LTO.

Right , I have got a better idea of how the betting looks so there's 4 to consider here -

JUMBAJUKIBA [5yo] has won 2 Grp 3's and a Listed race . Rated 114 and has won 3 times over the mile . 4th in a Listed race LTO over which was probably too far in Distance [9f] it's previous 4 runs before that were at Grp 3 level inc a win in the Gladness Stakes at the Curragh .
The last 2 winners had competed in that race.
Has won on going ranging from Firm to Heavy so todays Yielding shouldn't be a problem.

LISVALE [3yo] has won a Listed and been placed 2nd in a couple of Grp 2's. Rated 106 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Never won over 8f and it's last couple of runs were over 10f so drops back today . Won twice on Soft going .

ONE GREAT CAT [3yo] from the O'Brien yard [ one of 3 from there running in this] has not won at this level but has 2 third place's in Grp 2 and a 2nd in a Listed event to it's name . Rated 103 and has won on Heavy as a 2yo but would probably prefer it on the Firmer side of Good imo .Btn into last of 7 on it's other run on Heavy.Ran at Listed class LTO where it finished three and a half lengths in front of JUMBAJUKIBA over 9f on Good going receiving 14lb's .

SUMMIT SURGE [4yo] has won a Grp 3 race and is rated 109 . Winner over 8f and ran in a Grp 3 LTO ,winning that race but this one would appear to prefer Firmer going than it will get today. 3 of it's 4 wins have been over 7f on Gd-G/F going and that may be it's optimum conditions imo.

SUMMARY - SUMMIT SURGE would like it a bit firmer underfoot and maybe a furlong shorter imo so it's passed over.

ONE GREAT CAT will be winning races at this level at some time in it's career i've no doubt but hopefully not today as it's low rating and probable preference for a sounder surface means i'm giving it a miss .
LISVALE has won at Listed level but never won past the 7f mark , is taking a drop back down in trip today and the ground should suit .

However the main doubt about these 2 is the fact they are 3yo's and with only 1 winner coming from that vintage in 7 seasons while providing 25 of the 61 runners i'm hoping that the poor run continue's.

JUMBAJUKIBA gets the vote here and i know that being a 5yo should be a negative but with the sole 4yo we considered being better on a sound surface i'm taking a chance on this one upsetting that stat.
Was beaten LTO fairly and squarely by ONE GREAT CAT but that was over 1f further and on going that would have suited the 3yo better .
2 Grp 3 wins ,top rating , a liking for the ground and 3 course wins [ 2 at 8f] means that this one will take all the beating .

**The Duke** · **29-06-08**, **01:09 PM**

An excellent well thought out post once again, best of luck mate

**acapulco** · **29-06-08**, **01:34 PM**

Hi JTW,been reading your posts elsewhere for a while, always well researched and interesting. Pleased to see you have found "The Best" racing site.

**jtw1** · **29-06-08**, **05:14 PM**

JUMBAJUKIBA 2ND @ 4/1 JT FAV

Tried to steal the race from the start but pegged back by 'another progressive 3yo ' in LISVALE

**jtw1** · **01-07-08**, **08:37 PM**

Thought we might have had a runner in the Grp 3 at Loepardstown on Wednesday but on inspection what is now a Grp 3 over 7f was upgraded from a 8f Listed event back in 2003 .
So with only 5 previous races i'll give it a swerve .
Looks a bit tricky anyway imo

**jtw1** · **03-07-08**, **09:26 PM**

SANDOWN 4.00 Listed 10f G/F
----------------------------------

6 runnings means it just qualifies for consideration.

6/6 had won/been placed in a Group race.
6/6 were returned at 8/1 or under.
5/6 had ran that season.
5/6 ran in Grp /Listed class LTO.
5/5 that had a rating were rated 95+.
3yo x 5 wins
4yo+ x 1 win .

Now as there are no 3yo's running tomorrow i had a look at which age group finished in the best position behind the younger winners/2nd placed and 4/5 were 4yo's , with the other being a 5yo.

STAGE GIFT [5yo] has no less than 5 wins over the 10f of this event and has won at Grp2 and Grp 3[ 2 wins] . Rated 115 and ran in Grp 2 class LTO , however that was back in Oct of last year .

BUSHMAN [4yo] has won over 10f and is rated 105 but has only won a Class 3 Handicap [ albeit very easily] LTO on soft going at Sandown [8f] .
It's 10f win was in a slowish run race [1.71 over the ave ] in a Class 5 Windsor Handicap. Has only ran 3 times ,all this season and won 2.

MANY VOLUMES [4yo] a duel 10f winner and rated 109. Has only won at Cl 3 level , was placed 2nd in a Listed event but that was a Handicap.Has ran 4 times this season and has been 2nd on 3 occasions .
Only 2 wins from 14 runs career-wise.
Well beaten when contesting a Grp3 and Listed Stakes races.

SPANISH MOON [4yo] has won at 12f +7f but the sires winning ave is 10.4f so that should not inconvinience this one too much. Rated 108 it has won at Listed level and ran in Grp 2 company LTO.

SUMMARY - MANY VOLUMES and BUSHMAN would appear to lack the necessary class to win this race for the reasons stated in each comment for those two.
There's no doubt that the horse with the best form lines is the GODOLPHIN trained STAGE GIFT . This one has Grp 1 entries in the King George and Queen Elizabeth and the Juddmonte Stakes and the stable seems to be hitting form with 6 winners in the last 14 days .
However this is it's seasonal debut and with a Grp 1 campaign ahead i have to consider whether it will be given a hard ride here .
That leaves the door open ,imo, for SPANISH MOON to get it's 2nd win of the season.
After a disappointing run LTO in the HARDWICKE at RA when it got very warm at the start and took a fair bit of effort from the stalls handlers to go into the stalls and then ran far too quickly for it's own good to fade in the straight.
I am thinking that the type of day it was with the crowds and atmosphere of what was the busiest day of the Royal meeting got to this one time Derby Fav.
With a Listed win and a decent rating to it's name i think this could upset the Fav

p.s a slight concern is that MANY VOLUMES carries the 1st colours of K ABDULLAH but after the Irish Derby and other races is that a so much of a Negative ????

**Norton** · **03-07-08**, **09:30 PM**

Just noticed your thread jtw, some great reading. Welcome to OHR

**jtw1** · **03-07-08**, **10:00 PM**

NORTON

**The Duke** · **03-07-08**, **10:35 PM**

Originally Posted by jtw1

p.s a slight concern is that MANY VOLUMES carries the 1st colours of K ABDULLAH but after the Irish Derby and other races is that a so much of a Negative ????

That will most likely be because its by Chester House one of the favourite horses of Mr Abdullah has had in his care, out of his Oaks winning filly Reams Of Verse.

I quite fancy Charlie Farnsbarns myself. He looks a fair price and has some good form to his name.

Another excellent read there jtw, good luck mate.

**Bally** · **04-07-08**, **12:12 AM**

Best Of Luck JTW. . . .

Im swerving the race myself as anything could win it I think. Have to wonder though why Bushman looks like a definate runner on fast ground after being pulled out at Ascot because of it? Although thats when it goes and hoses up!

**The Duke** · **04-07-08**, **07:16 PM**

Spanish Moon lost a shoe at the start and thus didn't run, but Many Volumes hacked up.

Hope you backed the other Abdullah horse jtw!

**jtw1** · **04-07-08**, **08:35 PM**

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nothing better than spending a couple of hours studying only for the horse selected to lose a shoe !!! Thanks for informing me of that DUKE , assumed that it maybe had acted up as per Ascot !!
Work dictated i didn't know so i got the pennies back

SANDOWN 3.2 ECLIPSE STAKES 10f Grp 1 G/F
-------------------------------------------------

9/10 were returned at 12/1 or under , basically the top 5 in the betting.
9/10 had won a Grp 1 race
9/10 had won at least 3 races
8/9 with a rating were rated 115+
8/10 had won that season , with the other 2 being placed 2nd in at least 1 run.
8/10 ran in Grp company LTO , other 2 ran in Grp 2 races.
6/10 ran at Royal Ascot LTO , 2 each from the QUEEN ANNE , PRINCE of WALES and St JAME'S PALACE.
A OBRIEN - 3
STOUTE - 2
GODOLPHIN - 2

MAARAHEL , STOTSFOLD and ROB ROY look out of their depth as the odds for them show and i doubt whether LITERATO will get the rain it needs to run.
So that leaves us with 5 to consider -

MOUNT NELSON [4yo] is the one of only 2 Grp 1 winner's in the field [LITERATO the other] but is rated only 110 and has not been placed 1st or 2nd in any of it's 3 runs this season.
Was 5th in the QUEEN ANNE at RA and represents the A O'BRIEN yard .

PHOENIX TOWER [4yo] has one victory at Grp level [Grp 3] but has been a close 2nd in 2 Grp 1's this season . Rated 116 and was 2nd LTO in the PRINCE of WALES syakes at RA LTO.
Although no winners from the yard in recent years Mr CECIL has a fair record in the past.

PIPEDREAMER [4yo] has only won at Cl2 level but has a 3rd in both
Grp 1 + 3 company.. Rated 110 and has ran three times this season , finishing 3rd in all 3 . The PRINCE of WALES was it's last run .

MULTIDIMENTIONAL [5yo] has won and been placed in Grp 2 company and is rated at 105.Was 2nd LTO in the HARDWICKE Stakes at RA.

CAMPANOLOGIST [3yo] is the only representative of the younger generation this season and has a Grp 2 win to it's name .Rated 107 and has ran 4 times this season ,winning 3 inc LTO in the King Edward Stakes at RA.

SUMMARY - I cant consider PIPEDREAMER with only a best win at Class 2 grade , albeit a couple of decent placings in Grp1 + 3 races.
It was caught by PHOENIX TOWER LTO in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot [was also btn by that horse this season at Newmarket in the EARL of SEFTON Stakes [Grp 3]

CAMPANOLOGIST + MULTIDIMENTIONAL have both won at Grp 2 level but are rated well below winners ave for this race , 107 + 105 respectively.
Although both ran at Royal Ascot LTO ,both races were over 12f , so both take a drop back in trip .

MOUNT NELSON comes from the O'BRIEN yard and it's hard to ignore this one's chance's after the stables form over the past fortnight.
However i'm going to put forward a couple of reasons why i'm going to do just that.
It's Grp 1 win at St Cloud was on G/S going and it certainly won't get that tomorrow .
Also in the 4 Grp 1/3 races it has competed in since that win it has been well beaten in all 4 ,inc 2 at 10f.
I has also not been placed 1st or 2nd this season .

PHOENIX TOWER could be a very popular winner for HENRY CECIL and after MANY VOLUMES picking up the Listed race at Sandown earlier today the signs are looking good.
This will be only it's 7th racecourse appearance and with renewal of the ECLIPSE looking like the poorest quality wise for a few years and the doubts i have raised about MOUNT NELSON , the possible chance that it could still have room for improvment gets it the vote.
2nd in the Prince of Wales LTO when outrun by a true Grp 1 horse in Duke Of Marmalade and previous to that only beaten a whisker by the unfortunate CREACHADOIR inthe Lockinge show that he is no mug .
The only one of these 5 to be rated over the past minimum of 115 [ 116 for this] and no problems with the ground and , hopefully,the 10f i hope this is the one to halt the O'BRIEN steamroller.

**jtw1** · **04-07-08**, **11:30 PM**

SANDOWN 2.10 5f Grp 3 G/F
-------------------------------

10/10 were rated 102+
10/10 had ran a minimum of 4 races that season
9/10 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO
9/10 were returned at 8/1 or under
4/4 where there was double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+
3 x 3yo
3 x 4yo
4 x 6yo
From 13 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 3 winners and 3 x 2nd places .

4 look like starting at 8/1 or under -

HOH MIKE [4yo] won this last year and has a decent chance of the double .Rated 112 with a Grp 3 [ this race] to it's name and 2 Listed succeses in it's career.Has ran 3 times this season and LTO was a Grp 1 event.
Has had 4 wins from 5 at 5f

ANCIEN REGIME [3yo] has only won at best a Cl2 race and rated 105.
Has had 3 runs this season and interestingly it's sires winning ave is 8.5f and it'as 2 career wins have been at 6f.

MOORHOUSE LAD [5yo] has won a Grp 3 event and is rated 110 . Has only had 1 outing this season which was a Grp 1 race [ Kings Stand Stakes ] at Royal Ascot .
All 5 career wins have been at 5f , 2 at G/F , 2 at Gd and 1 on the AW.

WI DUD [4yo] has a Grp 2 victory in it's CV . Rated 106 it has ran 3 times this season and was unplaced in a Group 2 at York LTO.
Has won twice at 5f on GD - G/F going.

SUMMMARY - ANCIEN REGIME would appear imo to prefer another furlong to contend with and therefore i'm bypassing it's chance's.

MOORHOUSE LAD has only had one outing this season and being drawn 6 of 12 on G/F not too great so it's off the list.

WI DUD will be there at the HOH MIKE death but might just find 1 too good.
5f on G/F will hold no problems and a nice draw of 12 will be to it's advantage..
But it may struggle as it has in the past to the challenge of last years winner HOH MIKE .
Ground/Distance will be no problem . It has ran at Grp 1 [ 3times] , Grp 2 [once] and one disappointing run at Listed level since winning this last season .
Drawn nicely in stall 9 and with J SPENCER on board [ 5 wins and 3 places from 15 rides ] it's hard to see this one finishing out of the first 2.

**jtw1** · **05-07-08**, **03:36 PM**

HOH MIKE 3rd @ 13/8F
PHOENIX TOWER 2nd @ 5/2F

Disappointing day with Phoenix Tower being well backed from 4 's [ which i took ] down to 5/2 fav and getting nabbed on the line by MOUNT NELSON to keep the record of Grp1 winners going strong.
ANCIEN REGIME came good for the fancied 3yo record in winning the 1st.

27-06-08, 10:44 PM	#1 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	Trends Hello all , been invited to post my selections here and after a quick peruse of the forum i hope i can be a positive addition . A quick summary of what i look at when making a selection - I stick to Listed /Group races , preferably 4yo+ events but i do consider 3yo+ races but i'm a bit wary of these after the last few results. I use the TRENDS secton of the RACING POST to try and find any obvious trends/bias's which these race's may throw up . I don't consider Handicaps / Maidens. I post these on a couple of other forums and so far this season i have a strike rate of 20 wins from 54 tips with a healthy profit of 800.83pts from 540pts staked . Here's Saturdays selection's - NEWMARKET 3.00 Listed 4yo+ 12f G/F ------------------------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under 9/10 were 4 or 5y olds 10/10 had winning form at 10/12f 10/10 were rated 99+ 9/10 had ran that season and 8 had been placed in at least one of those races. 8/10 ran at Listed or Group class LTO ,other 2 were Cl 2 level. 7/10 had won/been placed in a Listed or Group race Only 6 declared for this one and with CLASSIC PUNCH and GROUP CAPTAIN well in double figures betting wise i'm going to concentrate on the remaining 4 . LION SANDS [4yo] has won a Listed race at Newmarket [14f] . Also won over the 12f and is rated 110 . Ran twice this season finishing 5th+4th and LTO was a Listed race. TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] has won 5 times and 3 of those were Listed and 2 were at Newmarket. Rated 116 and has ran 4 times this season , winning twice inc last time in Listed race. EASTERN ANTHEM [4yo] has won 1 race [8f] and been a close 2nd in 2 Listed events [11 + 12f]. Rated 109 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Only won at 8f but highlighted earlier it has been placed 2nd over 11+ 12f . RED GALA [5yo] has won at Cl 2 level but been unp at Listed /Group level .Rated 107 , it has won 3 times [ once at 12f ]and ran in a Listed race LTO. SUMMARY - RED GALA is the first to be rejected as it's best win at Class 2 and non-placing in Listed/Group company means it may lack a bit of class for this grade especially being a 5yo. I'm going to have to delay giving a selection between the remaining 3 as EASTERN ANTHEM may not run due to the ground conditions . Once that decision is made tomorrow i'll post the selection . NEWMARKET 3.35 7f Grp 3 3yo+ ----------------------------------- Winners have ranged from 2 Favs to 2 16/1's and all prices in between. 10/10 had won at LISTED/GROUP level. 10/10 had won at least twice previously. 10/10 were Southern trained [ 7 Newmarket ] 10/10 had ran previously ran that season with 9 being placed 1st-4th at least once. 9/10 had won / been placed or beaten 2l or under in a Group race. 9/10 had won over 7f [ 7 more than once ] 9/9 were rated 107+. 8/10 ran at Listed /Group level LTO [other 2 were Cl 2 ] 7/10 were 4 or 5 y olds. Thankfully there's no 3yo in the race and with VORTEX looking like starting around the 25/1 mark thats leaves the other 5 runners to consider. APPALACIAN TRAIL [7yo] comes down from Scotland and has won 9 times with 3 Listed events amongst them. A winner at 7f five times and rated 112. It has been placed 2nd twice in 2 Grp 3's ,inc LTO , but never won in Group company. KING OF DIXIE [4yo] has 3 career wins to it's name but only at Class 3 at best .Rated 109 and has never ran in anything above Class 2 [3rd] . Three times a distance winner and Southern trained but not , with respect to WJ KNIGHT, not by the usual Grade of trainer that wins this. BLYTHE KNIGHT [8yo] is another Northern Trained horse that has won a couple of Grp 3's inc LTO. It has 9 wins to it's name but importantly none was over the 7f of todays race. Rated 110 but only won once on G/F going which was a Class 3 three runner race . ARMY OF ANGELS [6yo] is Southern trained [ Godolphin ] and has won 4 times inc 1 Listed race . Rated 109 , this will be it's seasonal debut and has won once over 7f. Has been placed 1st or 2nd in 9 of it's 11 runs but never won on it's seasonal debut in 3 attempts and has not tackled Group company before this race. Would appear to prefer 8f judging by it's placement in the past . RACER FOREVER [5yo] is trained at Newmarket by J GOSDEN and has won 3 times , one of which was a Listed event. It has been btn a max of three lengths in two Grp 3's and a Grp 2 . Ran in a Cl 2 LTO at Royal Ascot where it was 11th btn only six and a quarter lengths . 2 of it's career wins were over 7f but is only rated 104 in the BHA ratings. SUMMARY - KING OF DIXIE fails on Grade of career wins and Trainer . BLYTHE KNIGHT should find this 7f too sharp for it , esp on G/F going . ARMY OF ANGELS may also find the 7f too sharp , esp on it's debut after 385 days off the track , as well as being a doubtful runner as the trainer has stated it will not run unless the ground is suitable. APPALACHIAN TRAIL has a great chance after it's close 2nd LTO in a Grp 3 at HAYDOCK but it still has not won at GROUP level and being 7 yo it will find it harder to do so . [ btw i still hold the opinion the L PERRATT couldn't train ivy and the improvement in the stables form is purely down to I SEMPLE being installed as No 2 ; or No 1 ?? who knows ] RACER FOREVER [5yo] is trained by the grade of trainer that has won this in the past as well as being a LISTED winner and having placed form at Grp 2+3 . LTO ran a very creditable race in a 28 runner competitive Handicap at Royal Ascot and with the 7f over G/F not forseen as being a problem and J FORTUNE on board [ 7 placings from 15 mounts but only 2 in last 6 which inc a 2nd , btn a half length and that 6th at RA ] i beleive that around 10/1 is good value in this event.

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27-06-08, 11:00 PM	#2 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Excellent stuff jtw, this is what our forum has been missing. I look forward to reading plenty more of your excellent postings on here. Good luck for tomorrow.

27-06-08, 11:08 PM	#3 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland

28-06-08, 04:25 AM	#4 (permalink)
Bally The Sex God Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Liverpool	Good Stuff JTW, Welcome & Good Luck Tomorrow!

28-06-08, 08:10 AM	#5 (permalink)
givemeabreak World Class Join Date: Jul 2007	Cracking stuff mate, good luck and look forward to reading more of these

28-06-08, 12:08 PM	#6 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	Cheers guys Re the 3.00 And indeed EASTERN ANTHEM + ARMY OF ANGELS in the 3.35 are NR's So that leaves us with 2 to consider - TRANQUIL TIGER [4yo] from H CECILS yard who has those 3 Listed wins to it's name and certainly likes the course.He should take the lead and make the running here and it's hard to see him being pulled back. Top rated on 116 i can't see LION SANDS being able to catch this one as it would prefer a longer distance , has beaten the selection over 14f and has an entry for the Irish Leger over that distance . Odds-on Fav i'm afraid .

28-06-08, 03:43 PM	#7 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	Nice start to posting here RACER FOREVER 1st @ 6/1 Great ride from FORTUNE TRANQUIL TIGER 2nd @ 8/11f Didn't take the lead as i expected but looked the winner when brought through 1f out , caught right on the line when he decided he'd had enough !!!

28-06-08, 03:45 PM	#8 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Excellent stuff with Racer Forever, only just hung on but it still pays the same You got any thoughts for the Irish Derby tomorrow yet?

29-06-08, 01:04 PM	#12 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	CURRAGH 4.35 Listed 8f 3yo+ --------------------------------- This race was downgraded in '01 when it was a Grp 2 race over 9f. 7/7 were returned at 5/1 or under 4 x 4yo from 18 runners 1 x 3yo from 25 runners 1 x 5yo+ from 18 runners 7/7 had won over 8f 7/7 had ran that season with 6 finishing either 1st or 2nd in at least one of those outings 6/7 had a BHA rating , of which 5 were 107+. 6/7 had winning/placed form in Listed/Group company. 5/7 ran in Listed/Group company LTO. Right , I have got a better idea of how the betting looks so there's 4 to consider here - JUMBAJUKIBA [5yo] has won 2 Grp 3's and a Listed race . Rated 114 and has won 3 times over the mile . 4th in a Listed race LTO over which was probably too far in Distance [9f] it's previous 4 runs before that were at Grp 3 level inc a win in the Gladness Stakes at the Curragh . The last 2 winners had competed in that race. Has won on going ranging from Firm to Heavy so todays Yielding shouldn't be a problem. LISVALE [3yo] has won a Listed and been placed 2nd in a couple of Grp 2's. Rated 106 and ran in a Listed race LTO . Never won over 8f and it's last couple of runs were over 10f so drops back today . Won twice on Soft going . ONE GREAT CAT [3yo] from the O'Brien yard [ one of 3 from there running in this] has not won at this level but has 2 third place's in Grp 2 and a 2nd in a Listed event to it's name . Rated 103 and has won on Heavy as a 2yo but would probably prefer it on the Firmer side of Good imo .Btn into last of 7 on it's other run on Heavy.Ran at Listed class LTO where it finished three and a half lengths in front of JUMBAJUKIBA over 9f on Good going receiving 14lb's . SUMMIT SURGE [4yo] has won a Grp 3 race and is rated 109 . Winner over 8f and ran in a Grp 3 LTO ,winning that race but this one would appear to prefer Firmer going than it will get today. 3 of it's 4 wins have been over 7f on Gd-G/F going and that may be it's optimum conditions imo. SUMMARY - SUMMIT SURGE would like it a bit firmer underfoot and maybe a furlong shorter imo so it's passed over. ONE GREAT CAT will be winning races at this level at some time in it's career i've no doubt but hopefully not today as it's low rating and probable preference for a sounder surface means i'm giving it a miss . LISVALE has won at Listed level but never won past the 7f mark , is taking a drop back down in trip today and the ground should suit . However the main doubt about these 2 is the fact they are 3yo's and with only 1 winner coming from that vintage in 7 seasons while providing 25 of the 61 runners i'm hoping that the poor run continue's. JUMBAJUKIBA gets the vote here and i know that being a 5yo should be a negative but with the sole 4yo we considered being better on a sound surface i'm taking a chance on this one upsetting that stat. Was beaten LTO fairly and squarely by ONE GREAT CAT but that was over 1f further and on going that would have suited the 3yo better . 2 Grp 3 wins ,top rating , a liking for the ground and 3 course wins [ 2 at 8f] means that this one will take all the beating .

29-06-08, 01:09 PM	#13 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	An excellent well thought out post once again, best of luck mate

29-06-08, 01:34 PM	#14 (permalink)
acapulco Group 2 Level Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Costa Blanca	Hi JTW,been reading your posts elsewhere for a while, always well researched and interesting. Pleased to see you have found "The Best" racing site.

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29-06-08, 05:14 PM	#15 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	JUMBAJUKIBA 2ND @ 4/1 JT FAV Tried to steal the race from the start but pegged back by 'another progressive 3yo ' in LISVALE

01-07-08, 08:37 PM	#16 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	Thought we might have had a runner in the Grp 3 at Loepardstown on Wednesday but on inspection what is now a Grp 3 over 7f was upgraded from a 8f Listed event back in 2003 . So with only 5 previous races i'll give it a swerve . Looks a bit tricky anyway imo

03-07-08, 09:26 PM	#17 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	SANDOWN 4.00 Listed 10f G/F ---------------------------------- 6 runnings means it just qualifies for consideration. 6/6 had won/been placed in a Group race. 6/6 were returned at 8/1 or under. 5/6 had ran that season. 5/6 ran in Grp /Listed class LTO. 5/5 that had a rating were rated 95+. 3yo x 5 wins 4yo+ x 1 win . Now as there are no 3yo's running tomorrow i had a look at which age group finished in the best position behind the younger winners/2nd placed and 4/5 were 4yo's , with the other being a 5yo. STAGE GIFT [5yo] has no less than 5 wins over the 10f of this event and has won at Grp2 and Grp 3[ 2 wins] . Rated 115 and ran in Grp 2 class LTO , however that was back in Oct of last year . BUSHMAN [4yo] has won over 10f and is rated 105 but has only won a Class 3 Handicap [ albeit very easily] LTO on soft going at Sandown [8f] . It's 10f win was in a slowish run race [1.71 over the ave ] in a Class 5 Windsor Handicap. Has only ran 3 times ,all this season and won 2. MANY VOLUMES [4yo] a duel 10f winner and rated 109. Has only won at Cl 3 level , was placed 2nd in a Listed event but that was a Handicap.Has ran 4 times this season and has been 2nd on 3 occasions . Only 2 wins from 14 runs career-wise. Well beaten when contesting a Grp3 and Listed Stakes races. SPANISH MOON [4yo] has won at 12f +7f but the sires winning ave is 10.4f so that should not inconvinience this one too much. Rated 108 it has won at Listed level and ran in Grp 2 company LTO. SUMMARY - MANY VOLUMES and BUSHMAN would appear to lack the necessary class to win this race for the reasons stated in each comment for those two. There's no doubt that the horse with the best form lines is the GODOLPHIN trained STAGE GIFT . This one has Grp 1 entries in the King George and Queen Elizabeth and the Juddmonte Stakes and the stable seems to be hitting form with 6 winners in the last 14 days . However this is it's seasonal debut and with a Grp 1 campaign ahead i have to consider whether it will be given a hard ride here . That leaves the door open ,imo, for SPANISH MOON to get it's 2nd win of the season. After a disappointing run LTO in the HARDWICKE at RA when it got very warm at the start and took a fair bit of effort from the stalls handlers to go into the stalls and then ran far too quickly for it's own good to fade in the straight. I am thinking that the type of day it was with the crowds and atmosphere of what was the busiest day of the Royal meeting got to this one time Derby Fav. With a Listed win and a decent rating to it's name i think this could upset the Fav p.s a slight concern is that MANY VOLUMES carries the 1st colours of K ABDULLAH but after the Irish Derby and other races is that a so much of a Negative ????

03-07-08, 09:30 PM	#18 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	Just noticed your thread jtw, some great reading. Welcome to OHR

03-07-08, 10:00 PM	#19 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	NORTON

04-07-08, 12:12 AM	#21 (permalink)
Bally The Sex God Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Liverpool	Best Of Luck JTW. . . . Im swerving the race myself as anything could win it I think. Have to wonder though why Bushman looks like a definate runner on fast ground after being pulled out at Ascot because of it? Although thats when it goes and hoses up!

04-07-08, 07:16 PM	#22 (permalink)
The Duke The Iron Horse Join Date: Mar 2005 Twitter: @OHRacing Location: West Midlands	Spanish Moon lost a shoe at the start and thus didn't run, but Many Volumes hacked up. Hope you backed the other Abdullah horse jtw!

04-07-08, 08:35 PM	#23 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nothing better than spending a couple of hours studying only for the horse selected to lose a shoe !!! Thanks for informing me of that DUKE , assumed that it maybe had acted up as per Ascot !! Work dictated i didn't know so i got the pennies back SANDOWN 3.2 ECLIPSE STAKES 10f Grp 1 G/F ------------------------------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 12/1 or under , basically the top 5 in the betting. 9/10 had won a Grp 1 race 9/10 had won at least 3 races 8/9 with a rating were rated 115+ 8/10 had won that season , with the other 2 being placed 2nd in at least 1 run. 8/10 ran in Grp company LTO , other 2 ran in Grp 2 races. 6/10 ran at Royal Ascot LTO , 2 each from the QUEEN ANNE , PRINCE of WALES and St JAME'S PALACE. A OBRIEN - 3 STOUTE - 2 GODOLPHIN - 2 MAARAHEL , STOTSFOLD and ROB ROY look out of their depth as the odds for them show and i doubt whether LITERATO will get the rain it needs to run. So that leaves us with 5 to consider - MOUNT NELSON [4yo] is the one of only 2 Grp 1 winner's in the field [LITERATO the other] but is rated only 110 and has not been placed 1st or 2nd in any of it's 3 runs this season. Was 5th in the QUEEN ANNE at RA and represents the A O'BRIEN yard . PHOENIX TOWER [4yo] has one victory at Grp level [Grp 3] but has been a close 2nd in 2 Grp 1's this season . Rated 116 and was 2nd LTO in the PRINCE of WALES syakes at RA LTO. Although no winners from the yard in recent years Mr CECIL has a fair record in the past. PIPEDREAMER [4yo] has only won at Cl2 level but has a 3rd in both Grp 1 + 3 company.. Rated 110 and has ran three times this season , finishing 3rd in all 3 . The PRINCE of WALES was it's last run . MULTIDIMENTIONAL [5yo] has won and been placed in Grp 2 company and is rated at 105.Was 2nd LTO in the HARDWICKE Stakes at RA. CAMPANOLOGIST [3yo] is the only representative of the younger generation this season and has a Grp 2 win to it's name .Rated 107 and has ran 4 times this season ,winning 3 inc LTO in the King Edward Stakes at RA. SUMMARY - I cant consider PIPEDREAMER with only a best win at Class 2 grade , albeit a couple of decent placings in Grp1 + 3 races. It was caught by PHOENIX TOWER LTO in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot [was also btn by that horse this season at Newmarket in the EARL of SEFTON Stakes [Grp 3] CAMPANOLOGIST + MULTIDIMENTIONAL have both won at Grp 2 level but are rated well below winners ave for this race , 107 + 105 respectively. Although both ran at Royal Ascot LTO ,both races were over 12f , so both take a drop back in trip . MOUNT NELSON comes from the O'BRIEN yard and it's hard to ignore this one's chance's after the stables form over the past fortnight. However i'm going to put forward a couple of reasons why i'm going to do just that. It's Grp 1 win at St Cloud was on G/S going and it certainly won't get that tomorrow . Also in the 4 Grp 1/3 races it has competed in since that win it has been well beaten in all 4 ,inc 2 at 10f. I has also not been placed 1st or 2nd this season . PHOENIX TOWER could be a very popular winner for HENRY CECIL and after MANY VOLUMES picking up the Listed race at Sandown earlier today the signs are looking good. This will be only it's 7th racecourse appearance and with renewal of the ECLIPSE looking like the poorest quality wise for a few years and the doubts i have raised about MOUNT NELSON , the possible chance that it could still have room for improvment gets it the vote. 2nd in the Prince of Wales LTO when outrun by a true Grp 1 horse in Duke Of Marmalade and previous to that only beaten a whisker by the unfortunate CREACHADOIR inthe Lockinge show that he is no mug . The only one of these 5 to be rated over the past minimum of 115 [ 116 for this] and no problems with the ground and , hopefully,the 10f i hope this is the one to halt the O'BRIEN steamroller.

04-07-08, 11:30 PM	#24 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	SANDOWN 2.10 5f Grp 3 G/F ------------------------------- 10/10 were rated 102+ 10/10 had ran a minimum of 4 races that season 9/10 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO 9/10 were returned at 8/1 or under 4/4 where there was double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+ 3 x 3yo 3 x 4yo 4 x 6yo From 13 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 3 winners and 3 x 2nd places . 4 look like starting at 8/1 or under - HOH MIKE [4yo] won this last year and has a decent chance of the double .Rated 112 with a Grp 3 [ this race] to it's name and 2 Listed succeses in it's career.Has ran 3 times this season and LTO was a Grp 1 event. Has had 4 wins from 5 at 5f ANCIEN REGIME [3yo] has only won at best a Cl2 race and rated 105. Has had 3 runs this season and interestingly it's sires winning ave is 8.5f and it'as 2 career wins have been at 6f. MOORHOUSE LAD [5yo] has won a Grp 3 event and is rated 110 . Has only had 1 outing this season which was a Grp 1 race [ Kings Stand Stakes ] at Royal Ascot . All 5 career wins have been at 5f , 2 at G/F , 2 at Gd and 1 on the AW. WI DUD [4yo] has a Grp 2 victory in it's CV . Rated 106 it has ran 3 times this season and was unplaced in a Group 2 at York LTO. Has won twice at 5f on GD - G/F going. SUMMMARY - ANCIEN REGIME would appear imo to prefer another furlong to contend with and therefore i'm bypassing it's chance's. MOORHOUSE LAD has only had one outing this season and being drawn 6 of 12 on G/F not too great so it's off the list. WI DUD will be there at the HOH MIKE death but might just find 1 too good. 5f on G/F will hold no problems and a nice draw of 12 will be to it's advantage.. But it may struggle as it has in the past to the challenge of last years winner HOH MIKE . Ground/Distance will be no problem . It has ran at Grp 1 [ 3times] , Grp 2 [once] and one disappointing run at Listed level since winning this last season . Drawn nicely in stall 9 and with J SPENCER on board [ 5 wins and 3 places from 15 rides ] it's hard to see this one finishing out of the first 2.

05-07-08, 03:36 PM	#25 (permalink)
jtw1 World Class Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: west calder , scotland	HOH MIKE 3rd @ 13/8F PHOENIX TOWER 2nd @ 5/2F Disappointing day with Phoenix Tower being well backed from 4 's [ which i took ] down to 5/2 fav and getting nabbed on the line by MOUNT NELSON to keep the record of Grp1 winners going strong. ANCIEN REGIME came good for the fancied 3yo record in winning the 1st.