Thurs bets. - OHR

**broadsword** · **02-09-10**, **07:13 AM**

Right the one for today Sweet Cecily Only one firm with a price at the mo' Paddy go 7's. Seriously whacky theory on this one with little evidence to back it up. Got beat about 3 lengths by Margot Did at Ascot under very similar conditions 6f fast ground who reopposes today.Beat fair and square on that day and should be no real reason that the form will turn.However next time out at Newbury Sweet Cecily really caught my eye.It had dropped back to 5f and the ground was given as good but I have a feeling it was a bit slower than that. It finished 2nd on that day to what I believe is a smart performer in Electric Waves and they both left the short priced favourite Hooray for dead.Heres where the plot thickens I was on Electric Waves that day and what pushed me in to backing it was the draw I felt Hooray and Sweet Cecily had no chance as the ground had seemed to run faster down the middle than the near side where both were drawn.Sweet Cecily was out paced in the first part of the race running on the near side with Hooray they drifted in towards the middle towards the end of the race and SC absolutley took off to finish a close second with Hooray way back.After this race, on this theory I backed Hooray at York and I think I'd posted up on here that I'd put a line through his last run due to him racing on what I believe was the slower part of the course It worked out and Hooray won Just holding on from the unlucky in running Margot Did.Hopefully you see where I'm going with this although Margot Did should have beat Hooray in fairness I dont think she'd have been beat that far.I think overall that Newbury run was a massive if somewhat disguised performance and a massive improvement on the Ascot run behind Margot Did.

Anyway I'm tired and I'm rambling and I don't think I've explained it all to well.But my betting thoughts were thus I was lining up a massive bet on this horse for a grp race its entered in on 1st October over 6f when all being well there should be a bit of cut in the ground but thats gone to tits as its running today.Now unfortunatley it seems that we haven't got the easier surface today but this looks an easier race and its not as if SC dosen't handle these quicker conditions I'd just be even more confident with a bit of cut. I just think that Sweet Cecily is a horse very much on the improve and its been concealed by the Newbury run.All of this may sound riduiculous to the speed rating bunch who may well be able to disprove my crazed theories with ratings on the races in question but I believe that last Newbury run was run at an electric pace and Sweet Cecily is going to be a seriously,seriously good 2yo.

I'm having a right good bet on this when a few more price it up

Good luck for today lads.

Warning! When I stick my neck out I usually end up looking a fool especially when tackling the flat

that I don't today.

**broadsword** · **02-09-10**, **08:10 AM**

Hmmmm.. I was Just sitting around waiting for the other firms to offer prices on this and suddenly Paddy power turned there market upside down and went 12/1 Sweet Cecily. At which point my worries about the ground dissapeared and I'm now balls deep at that price

I've also had another rush and gone and had a tenna on Betfair at 122's average for the Guineas

What am I like..eh

**CPGagie** · **02-09-10**, **09:01 AM**

I'll read that in a moment BS, and take a look myself. You do sound very keen. you have to dig deeper for the better prices, so i am interested.

Heres my effort today. The last thing you could call it is sticking my neck out. Its a spineless bet, but hopefully a profitable one.

SALI 1:40 GALLEGO EW 5/1
Its extremely hard to envisage this one out of the frame, simply due to its sheer love of this CD.
Pastello is a danger, as too could be Fly By Nelly, Transfer, and also Into The Wind, but there are some questions to be answered with those. That isnt the case with GALLEGO, who is nicely weighted looking at previous CD runs. Jockey takes a useful 3lbs off, and his few wins have been at either galloping or galloping and testing courses (Newc, Pont, Sali, etc), take a look. Cumani's Loden could upset things, but its worth taking on imo. Whips cant be used in this, and Gallego's liking (love) for the CD must be a massive plus.

OTHERS

EPSO 3:25 HOOLIGAN SEAN
Could run a decent race, and technically is my idea of the winner, but I have a lot of small niggling doubts. My gut feeling keeps telling me to stay away from the race, which is enough of a warning sign for me. I never have much luck at Epsom anyway. Interesting though.

**CPGagie** · **02-09-10**, **09:17 AM**

Dammit! I do see where you're coming from BS, but I've got to get ready for poker. I wish I had time to look at a few replays, but I havent.

What you say seems logical enough, and the step back up to 6F will be beneficial. I'm tempted to have a small EW on it, but cant do it, not without checking properly myself. Why a Thursday at this hour?

Hope it comes good for you mate.

**Norton** · **02-09-10**, **09:57 AM**

4:50 Redcar - Pobs Trophy

This was the first one I picked out today, then have spent time looking at Epsom and in the mean time the odds have dropped from 12s across the board to 8s and 9s

This one ran was allotted his flat mark on the back of 3 runs over inadequate trips, and has improved all summer in 3yo hurdles, cluminating in a comfortable Selling Hurdle win at the beginning of August. Handicap debut lto over this CD in a 3yo Hcap race, and ran a decent enough race, staying on at the end.

All age handicap this afternoon so he gets the very handy WfA allowance, rock bottom mark anyway, and Farley takes off another 7 - so will be running off 7-5 gonna feel like he's flying after the 10-12s he carried in the hurdles.

Don't know why I am posting and thus hexing my e/w bet, but

Still 10s with Hills, looks good e/w shout to me

**broadsword** · **02-09-10**, **03:59 PM**

If anyone in the midlands area could come around and kick the stool fom under me it would be very much appreciated

**broadsword** · **02-09-10**, **05:38 PM**

O.k I've finished sulking ! I think sweet cecily probably raced a bit to keenly and set the race up nicely for the 3 who got past him. In all fairness was only beat just over a length and the fact she went off half the price that I got there must have been a few in agreement with me on her chances prior to the race. I'd now though have to think twice about the theory of 6 furlongs on an easier surface because if she dosen't settle better than he did today she just won't get home.Maybe 5f on a soft surface would be absolutley ideal ? I wouldn't be surprised if she hasn't reproduced as good a run as he did at Newbury because I feel if she had she'd have won. I maybe be wrong

Unlucky with Pob Pete given a mountain to climb held up so far off the pace and never really stood a chance from there but he stayed on gamely and will probably pick a race up of the same nature pretty soon.If its any consolation if I hadn't have just don me Melons I'd have probably followed you in It looked like a solid bet mate...OHR curse strikes again.

Place Money for Chris so no harm done mate

Unlike myself who finds himself once more on his knees after a flat racing disaster

Oh I've had a cheeky E/w double tonight at Wolvo on Baby strange and flowing cape to get me back out of the soup

**Teekay** · **02-09-10**, **06:01 PM**

Fancy Fifth Dimension to step up in the 6.50 at Wolves

**Norton** · **02-09-10**, **07:07 PM**

Originally Posted by Teekay

Fancy Fifth Dimension to step up in the 6.50 at Wolves

How did you not find that winner?

surely you've got an Aunty called Iris from Toooooooon

**Teekay** · **02-09-10**, **11:28 PM**

Lol i knar id probs make more money if i backed by names.

**The Fox** · **02-09-10**, **11:37 PM**

Originally Posted by Teekay

Lol i knar id probs make more money if i backed by names.

I go on colours now and the odd occasional, where the pen lands trick. It don't work.

02-09-10, 07:13 AM	#1 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	Thurs bets. Right the one for today Sweet Cecily Only one firm with a price at the mo' Paddy go 7's. Seriously whacky theory on this one with little evidence to back it up. Got beat about 3 lengths by Margot Did at Ascot under very similar conditions 6f fast ground who reopposes today.Beat fair and square on that day and should be no real reason that the form will turn.However next time out at Newbury Sweet Cecily really caught my eye.It had dropped back to 5f and the ground was given as good but I have a feeling it was a bit slower than that. It finished 2nd on that day to what I believe is a smart performer in Electric Waves and they both left the short priced favourite Hooray for dead.Heres where the plot thickens I was on Electric Waves that day and what pushed me in to backing it was the draw I felt Hooray and Sweet Cecily had no chance as the ground had seemed to run faster down the middle than the near side where both were drawn.Sweet Cecily was out paced in the first part of the race running on the near side with Hooray they drifted in towards the middle towards the end of the race and SC absolutley took off to finish a close second with Hooray way back.After this race, on this theory I backed Hooray at York and I think I'd posted up on here that I'd put a line through his last run due to him racing on what I believe was the slower part of the course It worked out and Hooray won Just holding on from the unlucky in running Margot Did.Hopefully you see where I'm going with this although Margot Did should have beat Hooray in fairness I dont think she'd have been beat that far.I think overall that Newbury run was a massive if somewhat disguised performance and a massive improvement on the Ascot run behind Margot Did. Anyway I'm tired and I'm rambling and I don't think I've explained it all to well.But my betting thoughts were thus I was lining up a massive bet on this horse for a grp race its entered in on 1st October over 6f when all being well there should be a bit of cut in the ground but thats gone to tits as its running today.Now unfortunatley it seems that we haven't got the easier surface today but this looks an easier race and its not as if SC dosen't handle these quicker conditions I'd just be even more confident with a bit of cut. I just think that Sweet Cecily is a horse very much on the improve and its been concealed by the Newbury run.All of this may sound riduiculous to the speed rating bunch who may well be able to disprove my crazed theories with ratings on the races in question but I believe that last Newbury run was run at an electric pace and Sweet Cecily is going to be a seriously,seriously good 2yo. I'm having a right good bet on this when a few more price it up Good luck for today lads. Warning! When I stick my neck out I usually end up looking a fool especially when tackling the flat that I don't today. Last edited by broadsword; 02-09-10 at 08:31 AM..

02-09-10, 05:38 PM	#7 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	O.k I've finished sulking ! I think sweet cecily probably raced a bit to keenly and set the race up nicely for the 3 who got past him. In all fairness was only beat just over a length and the fact she went off half the price that I got there must have been a few in agreement with me on her chances prior to the race. I'd now though have to think twice about the theory of 6 furlongs on an easier surface because if she dosen't settle better than he did today she just won't get home.Maybe 5f on a soft surface would be absolutley ideal ? I wouldn't be surprised if she hasn't reproduced as good a run as he did at Newbury because I feel if she had she'd have won. I maybe be wrong Unlucky with Pob Pete given a mountain to climb held up so far off the pace and never really stood a chance from there but he stayed on gamely and will probably pick a race up of the same nature pretty soon.If its any consolation if I hadn't have just don me Melons I'd have probably followed you in It looked like a solid bet mate...OHR curse strikes again. Place Money for Chris so no harm done mate Unlike myself who finds himself once more on his knees after a flat racing disaster Oh I've had a cheeky E/w double tonight at Wolvo on Baby strange and flowing cape to get me back out of the soup Last edited by broadsword; 02-09-10 at 05:43 PM..

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02-09-10, 08:10 AM	#2 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	Hmmmm.. I was Just sitting around waiting for the other firms to offer prices on this and suddenly Paddy power turned there market upside down and went 12/1 Sweet Cecily. At which point my worries about the ground dissapeared and I'm now balls deep at that price I've also had another rush and gone and had a tenna on Betfair at 122's average for the Guineas What am I like..eh

02-09-10, 09:01 AM	#3 (permalink)
CPGagie Moderate Handicapper Join Date: May 2009	I'll read that in a moment BS, and take a look myself. You do sound very keen. you have to dig deeper for the better prices, so i am interested. Heres my effort today. The last thing you could call it is sticking my neck out. Its a spineless bet, but hopefully a profitable one. SALI 1:40 GALLEGO EW 5/1 Its extremely hard to envisage this one out of the frame, simply due to its sheer love of this CD. Pastello is a danger, as too could be Fly By Nelly, Transfer, and also Into The Wind, but there are some questions to be answered with those. That isnt the case with GALLEGO, who is nicely weighted looking at previous CD runs. Jockey takes a useful 3lbs off, and his few wins have been at either galloping or galloping and testing courses (Newc, Pont, Sali, etc), take a look. Cumani's Loden could upset things, but its worth taking on imo. Whips cant be used in this, and Gallego's liking (love) for the CD must be a massive plus. OTHERS EPSO 3:25 HOOLIGAN SEAN Could run a decent race, and technically is my idea of the winner, but I have a lot of small niggling doubts. My gut feeling keeps telling me to stay away from the race, which is enough of a warning sign for me. I never have much luck at Epsom anyway. Interesting though.

02-09-10, 09:17 AM	#4 (permalink)
CPGagie Moderate Handicapper Join Date: May 2009	Dammit! I do see where you're coming from BS, but I've got to get ready for poker. I wish I had time to look at a few replays, but I havent. What you say seems logical enough, and the step back up to 6F will be beneficial. I'm tempted to have a small EW on it, but cant do it, not without checking properly myself. Why a Thursday at this hour? Hope it comes good for you mate.

02-09-10, 09:57 AM	#5 (permalink)
Norton i > u Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: At the tables	4:50 Redcar - Pobs Trophy This was the first one I picked out today, then have spent time looking at Epsom and in the mean time the odds have dropped from 12s across the board to 8s and 9s This one ran was allotted his flat mark on the back of 3 runs over inadequate trips, and has improved all summer in 3yo hurdles, cluminating in a comfortable Selling Hurdle win at the beginning of August. Handicap debut lto over this CD in a 3yo Hcap race, and ran a decent enough race, staying on at the end. All age handicap this afternoon so he gets the very handy WfA allowance, rock bottom mark anyway, and Farley takes off another 7 - so will be running off 7-5 gonna feel like he's flying after the 10-12s he carried in the hurdles. Don't know why I am posting and thus hexing my e/w bet, but Still 10s with Hills, looks good e/w shout to me

02-09-10, 03:59 PM	#6 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	If anyone in the midlands area could come around and kick the stool fom under me it would be very much appreciated

02-09-10, 06:01 PM	#8 (permalink)
Teekay World Class Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Cramlington	Fancy Fifth Dimension to step up in the 6.50 at Wolves

02-09-10, 11:28 PM	#10 (permalink)
Teekay World Class Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Cramlington	Lol i knar id probs make more money if i backed by names.

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