Saturday 20th

[jtw1]

No luck on the final day at the Festival

The Flat starts next week and to get us in the mood here's the Trends for the 7f Listed event at Lingfield tomorrow -


3.00 7f Listed 3 y-olds
---------------------------

7/7 were in the top 4 in the betting
7/7 had won at least once in their career , 5 won Last time out .
7/7 were rated 93+

There are 7 left after taking into account the market .
All 7 have won at least once .
KONA COAST was only rated 93 when well beaten in a Listed race at Meydan and HADEETH is only rated 90 so both are out .

All the remaining 6 should or have find the 7f to their liking .

CLASSIC COLORI has ran only twice and was beaten last time in a G3 on Soft ground at Newbury .
Was possibly badly drawn in the conditions that day.
His yard have had 5 winners from 24 runners in 2010.

DUPLICITY ran his first 2 races over 7f but only won when dropped back to 6f.
His 5th in a G3 over in France LTO was also over 6f.
R HANNON has had 7 wins from 34 runners on the AW in 2010 .
He has ran once on the AW at Kempton .


GREYFRIARSCHORISTA is on a 4-timer but his best win was in a Class 3 Handicap.
No doubt he has been running in a grade or 3 lower than his best as his odds and winning distances will tell you but this is still a big jump up in class .
There have been 22 runners from those who have finished behind GREYFRIARS in his 3 wins but only 1 horse has managed to win [ he was making his career debut when 2nd behind GREYFRIARS ].

HANSON'D won his 2nd race when odds-on in a Cl 4 at AYR .
That followed his promising debut in a Cl 2 at York , he was well beaten in the Racing Post Trophy @ 50/1.
The stable has been putting the winners by steadily this year on the AW.

JIRA has been highly tried after winning a Listed race at Newmarket in June.
4th in a G3 at Ascot [btn under 3l] , 8th[btn 8l] in the Sweet Solera and a 4th [btn just over 2l ] in a Listed race when slow out of the stalls was then followed by a close 3rd in a Cl2 at NMKT and finally came a 6l beating behind the odds-on LILLIE LANGTRY in a 433k Cl 2 Stakes event at NMKT.
Bred to stay every inch of the 7f .
Seb Saunders has a 24% strike-rate for C BRITTAIN on his 3y-olds and the trainer himself has had a 33% stike-rate in the month of March for the past 2 seasons.

Summary - CLASSIC COLORI may just need the race and i doubt he is up to this class
DUPLICITY won when dropped in distance and on Soft going last season .
GREYFRIARSCHORISTA has ran well this season but takes a big jump in class here , i doubt he is up to it.
HANSON'D has a decent EW chance afetr his 2nd at York and easy win at AYR .
JIRA has been tried at a level just above todays and has ran well enough to suggest that , providing she can handle the surface , she has the class to win this .
Bred for 7f , a trainer in form [won this last season] and a jockey who has ridden well for the yard leads me to believe that the 10/ 1 on offer is well worth an interest .

[jtw1]

7/7 were returned at 14/1 or under in the betting
6/7 had already won at 10f+
6/7 had ran at least once that calander year with 5 winning and the other finishing 2nd.
The debutant had ran LTO in a G1 .
6/7 had a rating of 104+ [the exception did not have a UK rating ,Italian Trained.
6/7 were aged from 4-6 y old.
4/7 had won at least at Listed grade but since '06 [ became G3 ] it's been 3/4 , the others won at a min of Cl2.

Applying the Odds and Rtaing trends gets rid of DALRADIAN , BON SPIEL , FULL TOSS , JAROSLAW , MISTER GREEN , YAHRAB , OCEANS MINSTREL and BEAUCHAMP VICEROY.
Age takes care of STOTSFOLD and SUITS ME .
SOUL CITY has never won beyond 7f .

Of the 3 that are left TRANQUIL TIGER has not ran this calendar year and his last run was in a Listed event over C/D.
FIERY LAD has ran twice this tear , both btn at Meydan .
5 of his 6 career wins have been at Dundalk so the AW surface should hold no problems but he has only won once at Listed level whereas PALLODIO has a G3 and a Listed win to his name .
4 wins at 10f and 2 of those on an AW course in France means he has a very good chance of a win here .
The stable of J HAMMOND is not known for it's UK raiders and truth be told they have not been too successful with 5 runners producing 0 wins but i'll take a chance at 9/1 on this one breaking their 5 year duck .

[skydog]

Midlands National day at Uttoxeter too ( if anybody can stand anymore jumps racing)

Less testing conditions than is often the case so this may not be quite the plodathon it usually is. OK so I pinched that from the RP but it may me smile.

The Irish trained Inoma James looks the one to be on and Lorum Leader for an outside punt.

In the 2.05 I'm hoping Kawagino can run well at least into a place,just a slight concern as to whether it will be soft enough for him and having never run at this track thats a bit of an unknown too. 5th

Al Co in the 2.40 may reward EW support. 4th

Up at Newcastle Solis as a great chance to open his account in the first. 2nd

Star Player in the 4.00 could and hopefully will improve for his 2 recent runs.

Good luck

[jtw1]

JIRA - 4th @ 12/1 .Ran prominently and held every chance , but didn't quicken and faded to 4th .
Possibly not helped by the No 1 stall and maybe the 7f is just beyond her .
Keep an eye out if she reappears at 6f next time .


PALLODIO - 3rd @ 20/1 !! Drifted out from 9's to 20's but ran well enough and was finishing fast but by that time TRANQUIL TIGER had stolen enough of a lead to hold on.
Certainly worth another chance in this grade , maybe unsuited by the short straight here.

[skydog]

Yeah nice one that jtw. I got on at 6's for the place!!!!