Palmersears' Stat of the Day

[Palmersears]

Morning all

Been spending a fair bit of time really getting into me stats/trends recently, as can be seen in the Cheltenham vBookie threads, so I thought I'd try and provide a stat/trend a day if possible to aid us all in the money-making process. There might not be one a day, crap racing doesn't give good statistical results, but I shall do my best.

As a starter, have three that last the whole month:

Jim Best's hurdlers have consistantly done well in March, he's had eight March winners from 37 races since 2003 and shows a small yet consistant LSP. However, if you look at the handicaps only, it becomes six winners from 25 races (24% strike rate) with a profit of over £250 to £10 stakes.

J R Cornwall has a consistant March profit in recent years with 11 chase winners from 53 races (20% strike rate). This gives you, if you'd backed them all, a proft of £35.50 to a £1 stake.

Finally, on the all-weather Terry Mills is worth following in March, having ten winners from 36 races since 2003. A tenner on all his runners since 2003 would see you sitting on £130 profit, which is nice.

Only Jim Best has a qualifying runner today:

4:30 Fontwell- Jades Double

The other two have runners over the coming days, so I'll keep them posted in here. With the weekend approaching and decent racing arriving I hope to have a few trends for you over the next few days

[The Duke]

Interesting stuff mate, good luck.

[Palmersears]

A race of slight statistical intrest is the 2:40 at Lingfield, the Forest Row Claiming Stakes over 6f. Run since 2000, G L Moore has won 50% of the renewals, including four of the last six, and his entry today, Turner's Touch, won it last year off the highest weight ever at 9-11, and his current weight of 8-9 is roughly the average for previous winners. The only worry is it's slightly too high in the market, with all but one of the previous winners returining at 6/1 or less, but I'll overlook that due to Moore's excellent record.

[givemeabreak]

Nice one mate good luck

[Palmersears]

No joy today, with both well beaten in the end, but hey-ho, can't win them all. Will be back during the evening with tomorrow's offerings

[Palmersears]

Nothing stands out trend-wise tomorrow, so I'll leave you with the trainers to follow entries for tomorrow:

Jim Best:

2:30 Wincanton- Thursday's Knight

Terry Mills:

7:20 Wolverhampton- Laurie Grove

EDIT:The RP had Smoothly Does It down to run at Wincanton for Jim Best today, but it appears to be a mistake. Amended to suit.

[Palmersears]

Trainers appear to be taking a while to get warmed up it would appear, nothing again today

Firstly, tomorrow's trainers to watch entries:

J R Cornwall:

3:05 Leicester- Log On Intersky

4:50 Leicester- Kercabellec

EDIT:

Upon closer inspection I've found one trend for today, in the last at Leicester, the 2m Thrusters Hunters' Chase. Of the eight previous renewals, all but one (88%) have been won by a horse aged 10 or 11 (Won last year by a 7 year old). This immediately cuts the field down to two runners, Man From Highworth and The Sneakster. Given that the biggest SP ever to win the race has only ever been greater than 10/1 once (The same horse that won at 7 last year), we can rule out The Sneakster who is far too big at 50/1. This leaves us with Man From Highworth to fight our statistical cause for today.

Selection- 5:25 Leicester- Man From Highworth

[Palmersears]

An 11/4 second from the featured race, so if we go on the place market that's a moral victory

Tomorrow's trainers to watch entries:

Jim Best:

4:45 Chepstow- Hello Moscow

Secondly the big race of the day, the Imperial Cup at Sandown. Of the last 11 winners:

• 11 were rated 114-138.

• 10 had run at least twice beforehand.

• 9 had run less than 10 times over hurdles.

• 7 were aged either 5 or 7.

• 9 went off 9/1 or less.

• 7 were placed last time out.

• 8 were placed in at least 2 of last 3 runs.

• 8 carried less than 11 stone.

• 7 won at least 1 of last 3 runs.

• 7 had already won at the distance.

Now to find us a qualifier. All the horses tick the first and second boxes, and there are only five who have run more than ten times over hurdles. The age stat really whittles them down however, with only Harper Valley, I Have Dreamed, Oddshoes and Seven Is My Number surviving. Let's look at these four in relation to the last few stats in more detail.

Harper Valley is immediately discounted, failing on all remaining counts.

I Have Dreamed, with his win lto at Hereford, gets points 6, 9 and 10 ticked off, however he weighs in at 11-3, and his last three runs read 126, meaning he just misses out on point 7 in addition. Furthermore his current odds of 25/1 are well outside the 9/1 or less benchmark.

Oddshoes has indeed placed both lto and in 2 of the previous 3, securing ticks besides point 6 and 7, and is well within the weights at 10-3. However he's never won over hurdles, and as such has never won over the 2m distance either. His 50/1 pricetag is another negative.

Seven Is My Number has indeed placed lto, winning over 2m at Taunton nearly a year ago, and as such ticks boxes 6, 9 and 10. He's well within the weights as well at 10-3, and his current odds of 8/1 just sneak him inside the maximum price. The only slight negative is that his form reads 164, however when you consider he ticks every other box quite comfortably he's a solid statistical selection for place prospects at the very least.

Selection: 3:05 Sandown- Seven Is My Number

[Palmersears]

Two others to note for tomorrow:

The Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton (3:30), has seen 9 of 10 winners aged 4 or 5 (90%). In addition the favourite has only ever won one trial (10%), back in 2005. These two stats don't bode well for current market leader Flipando, who at eight years old, is well beyond that of the oldest ever winner, The Prince back in 2000, who was 6.

Selection: LAY Flipando (If market leader)

By contrast, the Novices' Chase at Sandown (4:20) sees the favourites hold a remarkable record in the race, winning 7 of 10 (70%). This, combined with the fact that a horse older than 7 has never won the race (7 years olds have won all but 4 renewals (60%)), leads us nicely to one of two 7 year olds, Song of Songs, who looks likely to be sent off co-favourite at the very least.

Selection: Song Of Songs (If co-favourite or better)

[Palmersears]

Seven Is My Number was given a questionable ride by Murphy, held in the rear for far too long before flapping when caught in traffic. I would imagine those who backed it will be very disappointed. However if we look back to Saturday night you could (And some did ) get 12/1 with [Only registered and activated users can see links. ], so I'll claim half a victory on this one.

Flipando won the Lincoln Trial in decent fashion in the end, bucking the trend of losing favourites in the race. He's now best priced 16/1 for the main event in 3 weeks.

Song Of Songs also won well enough in the end, and as it was sent off favourite, chalks up the first proper win for the stats

Trainers to watch are taking their time with things, with another well beaten entry yesterday.

For the week ahead:

My Cheltenham trends that I've already done can be found in their respective threads in the vBookie Competition section, however I'll post them all in one mega post in due course. There are a few races at the Festival I haven't looked at, and I'll try and include them if possible.

[Palmersears]

Cheltenham, Tuesday March 10th 2009

1:30- Williamhill.com Supreme Novices' Hurdle (2m110y)

Key Trends:

• 30 of the last 34 winners (88%) have been 5-6 years old.

• Six of the last twelve winners (50%) were 6/1 or less.

• Eleven of the last twelve winners won lto.

• Nine of the last twelve winners (75%) won their previous two races.

When you take the first trend into consideration over half the runners are immediately discounted. That is reduced to just two(!) when you consider the winning SP's. Those two are Cousin Vinny and Torphichen.

Cousin Vinny unseated his rider lto, and despite it being unfortunate rather than a serious error, that's a negative. If you discount that he did win his previous two races before that.

Torphichen however, has won both his previous two starts at Sandown and Ludlow, so he ticks both of the latter boxes, and as such, gets the vote just ahead of Cousin Vinny. One slight concern is the drift in price of the selection, which is out a point to 6/1 since my write-up. I'm fairly sure it'll go off at <6/1, but if it doesn't then it's a no-bet race for the stats.

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3:20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m110y)

A potential winners must have:

• Won it’s last start. (With the exception of Hardy Eustace when beaten by a head)

• Had it’s final run before the festival within 51 days (Middle of January at the earliest).

• Won at least one race this season.

• Finshed at least fourth at a previous Cheltenham Festival (10 from 10 have)

• A good Cheltenham record. The past ten years have seen all winners of this race win at least 50% of their starts at Cheltenham if they have had 2 more runs at the course before this race.

With the above considered it leaves us with two contenders; Celestial Halo and Ashkazar. Whilst you could argue that Katchit and Binocular should be in the melting pot as well, both have strong negatives against them for me. Whilst they will run well they don't fall into my statistical considerations.

As for the two contenders, Ashkazar stacks up well stats wise. He won lto at Wincanton, a preperation race which also falls well inside the 51 day bracket (14th February to be precise). That win also ticks the 1 win in a season box, and his second in the Fred Winter Juvinile Novices' Handicap Hurdle behind Crack Away Jack at last year's frestival ticks stat box four. He can't really be judged on the last box, as the above second was his only previous visit.

Celestial Halo has all the stats on his side as well. A winner of his final race before coming here (A race which also falls within the 51 day period), he's ticked three boxes with one race. His win in last year's Triumph Hurdle goes some way to qualifying him for stat four.

Overall we have two evenly matched horses to chose from. Both tick four of five boxes stat-wise, but my preference is for Celstial Halo, whose second behind Binocular at Ascot in December, coupled with his win here last year, can see him pick up the win.

[Palmersears]

Cheltenham, Wednesday March 11th 2009

1:30 139th Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (4m)

Key Trends:

• No horse younger than 7 has won in the past 20 years.

• 7 year olds have won the last four runnings.

• J P McManus has owned four winners and four placed horses.

• JJ O'Neil has trained four of the last six winners.

No stats selection, there just isn't enough solid data to whittle them down with. Hope the above guides you towards the winner though

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2:05 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)

Key Trends:

• Favourites have won four of the eleven races (36%) with only one winner going off bigger than 12/1.

• Form with lots of 1s and maybe the odd 2 is usually the normal pattern for a winner.

• Four year olds have a poor record and only one winner has been older than seven in the last decade.

The above isn't the best for picking a firm selection, with all those smaller than 12/1 having very solid form, with plenty of wins to their name. Indeed with all the entries aged 5, 6 or 7 the last stat is redundant, and this really does look like any one from the top six stats-wise.

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2:40 RSA Chase (3m110y)

Key Trends:

• Each of the last ten winners finished placed in their most recent run.

• All had won at least one race in the current season.

• Seven or eight year olds have won 12 out of the last 14 runnings.

Some decent trends here, but in conjunction they fail to find a stand-out selection. Whilst the first point accounts for Hold 'Em, Lodge Lane, Shining Gale, The Market Man and Bohemian Lass, all the remaining horses have won this season, and there are only 5 more that can be excluded on the grounds of age, leaving us with 9 potential candidates! Adivce? Take your pick from those 9 and use minimum stakes!

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3:20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)

A potential winner mast have:

• Run in a chase at the Festival the year before if it competed. (10 out of 10)

• Won a race that season. (10 out of 10)

• Had 3 or 4 races that season or have a 100% record that season prior to the Festival.

• Won at least one race at Cheltenham if it has raced there before.

Master Minded is so far ahead statistically but he offers no value whatsoever, and trying to find a winner without him is a little tricky, but here goes.

After the first two stats are taken in to consideration we're left with ScotsIrish, who finished 7th in the Arkle last season and who won at Cork in December and Tidal Bay, winner of the Arkle last season and a winner at Carlisle in November.

Both have had the required amount of runs this season, and so we're left with the final stat to determine the selection. Scotsirish is ruled out, finishing no better than 7th last year, leaving us with Tidal Bay. However if Johnson swerves this and heads for the Ryanair Chase with his charge then Scotsirish gets the nod.

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4:00 [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] Cup (2m5f)

Key trends:

• Ten of the last twelve winners (83%) carried 11st or less.

• Winners unlikely to come from out of the handicap. Nine out of the last ten wins have come from horses in the top 2/3rds of the handicap,

• Four trainers have a really good record in this race; Edward O'Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O'Neil.

Again, not a lot of serious statistical muscle to throw around here. The weight stat only rules three out, and the handicap is fairly none-commital too. Statistically, one to avoid.

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5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (2m110y)

Key Trends:

• Four year olds have a poor record with the 7lb weight for age allowance appearing to be insufficient to compensate for their lack of experience.

• Eleven out of the last twelve winners (91%) finished 1st or 2nd on their previous run.

• The Irish have won ten of the last twelve races (83%).

• Willie Mullins has trained six of the last twelve winners (50%).

A feast of decent trends here. We immediately rule out the four years olds, and are left with 24 potential winners to sort out. Long Strand and Benbane Head are also cast aside, failing to finish higher than 4th lto. There are a bucketload of Irish challengers again, so that stat is redundant, and with a staggering nine runners it looks likely that Mr Mullins will be occupying the winners enclosure yet again in the Champion Bumper.

[Palmersears]

Cheltenham- Thursday 12th March 2009

1:30 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (2m5f)

Key Trends:

• The last three winners of this race carried 10st 11lbs or 10st 12lbs, highlighting the need for a relatively unexposed sort.

• All four winners have been aged seven years old.

• All four winners finished either first or second lto.

• Relatively unexposed horses have been the norm, with no winner having won more than once over fences prior to the race.

Another decent statistical race to start day three, which is nice. Attention is immediately switched to the 21 seven year olds, 5 of whom (Clarified, Kia Kaha, Or Bleu, Exmoor Ranger and Slash And Burn) are carrying the required weight.

Clarified finished 3rd lto at Gowran Park, so that is a negative, however it has only won once, at Punchestown back in December 2008.

Kia Kaha won it's previous race at Fakenham in January, however he appears a wee bit exposed, having won twice over fences, with a win at Ludlow to add to it's latest success.

Or Bleu is another who has won their previous race, at Chepstow back in February. However he too seems a bit exposed, having chalked up a win at Bangor in November as well.

Exmoor Ranger has also won lto at Exeter in Decemeber, but again is another exposed soret having won at the same venue back in October.

Slash And Burn is the only one of the five contenders not to win lto, infact he's never won over fences, with two seconds at Ascot the sum total of this years form.

In conclusion, a case can be made for all five. The first four have all won over fences, but multiple wins for all four may have seen the handicapper get on top of them slightly. the least exposed looks to be Slash and Burn, however with no wins over fences you'd would have doubts. What swings it for me is the fact that Kia Kaha has C&D form, and would be the tentative e/w selection.

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2:05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3m)

Key Trends:

• 6 to 9 year olds have won 11 out of the last 11 runnings.

• 7 of the last 12 (58%) of winners had won their previous race. However four of the last twelve (33%) finished unplaced lto.

• Higher weights tend to be better suited, with the range 10-6 to 11-7 winning 9 out of 11 (81%).

Some interesting if not all together concise stats for this Handicap Hurdle. 7 can be ruled out by age, with most of the remained ruled out by on weight, leaving 16. The stats are clearly stacked in favour of those who won lto, leaving us with only one, Jonjo O'Neill's Synchronised, ticking all the boxes.

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3:20 [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] World Hurdle (3m)

Key Trends:

• 18 of the last 19 winners (94%) of the stayers hurdle have been between 6-8 years old.

• The last eight winners had all finished either first or second lto.

• The last eight winners have all started at 8/1 or smaller.

• Eleven of the last twelve winners (91%) had previously finished 1st or 2nd in a top grade hurdle race.

• Nine of the last twelve winners (75%) had previously been placed at the Festival.

Potential Winners MUST HAVE:

• Been trained in the UK or France.

• Run in the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if running at the previous year’s Festival (All of the past winners of this have).

• Finished 1st or 2nd in the World Hurdle if participating in it the year before. (All of the past winners have).

• Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (All the last 9 winners have).

Unsurprisingly it is the first three in the betting, Kasbah Bliss, Punchestowns and Big Bucks who meet the majority of the stats to emerge as most likely World Hurdle Winners.

Kasbah Bliss, trained in France, finished second in this last year and won lto at Haydock on Valentine's Day. He's bang in the middle of the ideal age range, the above win is another positive, as is his second here last year.

Punchestowns is a French bred English trained horse, however he's never run at the Festival before, and finished second lto to Big Bucks at this venue. 6 years old, so just meeting the age requirements.

Big Bucks is another French bred, English trainer horse. Won at Cheltenham ahead of Punchestowns in January, however he only ran in the Jewson last year, finishing 7th, which is a negative.

Overall it's clear Kasbah Bliss is the statistical pick, with his second in this last year adding an element of experience to him that the other two cannot match.

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4:00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate (2m5f)

Key Trends:

• 9 out of the last 11 winners had an offical rating of between 128 and 141.

• 15 out of the last 17 winners (88%) had run at the Cheltenham Festival before.

• 11 out of the last 12 winners (91%) carried 11st 3lbs or less.

• 8 out of 12 (66%) were placed in their previous race.

• Martin Pipe had a good record in this race with four winners from the last nine runnings (44%).

After applying the OR filter we're left with 20 potential selections, a figure that's trimmed to 8 when you consider previous runners at the Festival. All 8 carrying less than the maximum 'winnable' weight, however only two, Something Wells, & Le Burf placed on their last outing.

Something Wells came second in a Group 2 at Chepstow in February, with Le Burf winning a Group 3 at Kempton. Preference is for Something Wells.

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4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m1f110y)

Key Trends:

• Only four winners in the last 20 years have carried over 11 stone in weight.

• Only two winners out of the last eleven had an official rating over 128.

• Eight and nine year olds have the best record having won around three quarters of the races to date.

• An in-form horse is a must with recent winners showing placed form within their last three runs.

32(!) are left after the weight stat, with all coming under the OR of 128. 15 are left when you consider the most successful ages, and 7, Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan's Future, That's Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star remain after you consider their past three runs. All are comfortably 25/1 or bigger, and if I have time I'll try and narrow it down further tommorrow.

Gold Cup day stats to come tommorrow.

[Palmersears]

Cheltenham- Friday 13th March 2009

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m1f)

Key Trends:

• Ten of the last twelve winners (83%) had run at least three times.

• 12/12 finished first or second last time out.

• 9/12 (75%) won last time out.

• 12/12 had SP's of 20/1 or less.

• 10/12 had won at least two races(83%).

• 11/11 had their last prep race in February.

We can immediately rule eight out, as they have had less than three runs previously. A further six are then trimmed from the shortlist, failing to finish first or second lto. Ten remain who won lto, of which five, Walkon, Starluck, Jumbo Rio, Trenchant & Lethal Weapon, have current odds of 20/1 or less.

Walkon, the Alan King trainer, French bred, entry has won the two required races, at Newbury back in December, and round this course lto in January. However this latest win came eight days too early to qualify him for the final stat.

Starluck, the Irish raider trained by Mr Fleming, has been in good form this season winning all three start, at Huntingdon, Fakenham and, most recently, Kempton. Like Walkon however the final prep race falls outside the required period, coming way back in December.

Jumbo Rio is another Irish entrant, who's form this season fails to match up with the two above. Whilst he won his pvious prep race at Leapordstown, vitally in February, his only other win was in a flat race at the Curragh back in June 2008.

Trenchant is another Alan King runner, who has three runs over hurdles to his name, all this calendar year. Two firsts, at Warwick and most recently (Again, vitally, in February) at Kempton mean he ticks both of the remaining statistical boxes.

Lethal Weapon, another from across the Irish Sea, has won all three of his races this season, at Clonmel, Cork, and most recently Leapordstown. Despite these wins his Leapordstown win came way back on Boxing Day last year, so that is a negative.

Overall, whilst many have good form, only one ticks all the boxes, that being Trenchant. He has won the required amount of races, and his preperation run for the Festival was well within the required timescale, and providing he doesn't drift out beyond 20/1, he will be a decent e/w selection. If he does end up going out to beyond 20/1, the next best is current favourite Walkon, who can be overlooked on the fact his last run came 8 days to early to tick the last box.

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2:05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m1f)

Key Trends:

• 9/12 winners (75%) carried 11st 1lb or less.

• 11/12 were 16/1 or less in the betting.

• 7/12 finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

• 10/11 had an official rating between 128-145.

With the first trend only accouting for one (Snap Tie) we move swiftly on to the second, which narrow it down to 10. Of these 10, four are discounted having failed to finish 2nd or 1st lto. The remaining six, Dave's Dream, Aachen, Psycho, Big Eared Fran, Copper Bleu & Sunnyhillboy all qualify on OR basis, so it's really any one from six for this, and those choosing a selection should tread carefully.

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3:20 [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f110y)

Past Winners Key Trends:

• 10/11 (90%) of winners were 7-9 years old.

• 8/11 (72%) were priced at 15/2 and under in the Gold Cup betting.

• 10/10 had raced between 6-13 times over fences before landing the Gold Cup.

• 8/11 (72%) had finished 1st or 2nd at previoius festivals before winning the Gold Cup.

With the above in mind, Denman's stats for last year are particularly impressive:

• He won the Gold Cup at 8, virtually bang in the middle of the ideal age range.

• He has a starting price of 9/4.

• His win last year came having raced 8 times over fences.

• He won the Gold Cup having previously won the Sun Alliance Chase in 2007.

Short and sweet statistically, Denman.

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5:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (2m110y)

• 10 of the last 12 winners carried 10st 12lbs or less.

• 8 of 12 finished in the first three last time out.

• 9 of 12 started at 8/1 or lower.

After weight stats we're left with a rather large 23 runners still involved, however this does drop to 12 when you consider their previous runs. With SP's considered we're left with two, French Opera & Poquelin. Preference personally is for Poquelin, who has C&D form to his name and Mr Walsh on board.

And that, statistically, is the Festival covered for another year!

[Palmersears]

Cheltenham Festival- A Statistical Review

Bear in mind I’ve only reviewed those races that were previewed in the above posts.

Day One

1:30- Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

A disappointing start for the stats, with selection Torphichen only finishing a distant 9^th to winner Go Native. To be fair the winner was not a total blip in the trends. At 6 years old he was the perfect age for a potential winner, and he won prior to this at Naas back in February. At 12/1 he was not totally out of reach of the 6/1 maximum odds that 50% of the previous winners went off at. In addition he came relatively close to winning both races before this Festival opener, beaten into second by Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown last January. Overall, not the most trend-busting winner ever, and certainly one to add into the calculations when compiling next year’s stats.

3:20- Champion Hurdle

Very nearly the first winner for the stats at the Festival came courtesy of Celestial Halo in the Champion Hurdle, who was beaten only a neck by 22/1 winner Punjabi. The winner was a mixed bag in terms of statistical data, lacking the previous Cheltenham experience and lto success to adequately enter initial calculations. That previous 3^rd at Wincanton did come within the 51 day period required, and Nicky Henderson’s charge had come third in this race a year earlier, however it was difficult to find statistical evidence to put up a valid argument for it being a likely winner. The statistical selection’s second place, at a nice e/w price of 17/2, is some consolation.

Day Two

1:30- National Hunt Challenge Cup

Tricky Trickster became the first horse younger than seven to claim the National Hunt Challenge Cup in twenty years as he came home 10 lengths clear of Drumcovis. In addition the seven year olds, who have won the last four renewals, could do no better than the favourite Can’t Buy Time, who finished 4^th. The favourite’s 4^th was also the best Jonjo O’Neill, traditionally successful in this event, could muster.

2:05- Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

As suggested in the preview, this Grade 1 hurdle was indeed contested by those prominent in the market, with all those occupying the places well inside the required SP of 12/1. In the end Mikael D'Haguenet made it 5 from 12 for the favourites (41%). Both the favourite and the next two home, Karabak and Diamond Harry, would have been on the shortlist given their previous form, price and age. The poor showing for 4 year olds continued, with 100/1 shot Ruthenose the first one home in a distant 9^th.

2:40- RSA Chase

Impossible to pick a firm selection from the available statistics prior to this, and in a high quality field, the favourite Cooldine prevailed by some considerable margin. His victory continued the trend which has now seen 7 or 8 year olds win 13 of the last 15 renewals (86%). His victory also extends the record of winners placing in their preparation race, which now stretches back 11 years.

3:20- Queen Mother Champion Chase

It was clear from the outset that Master Minded would be a comfortable winner, and so it proved, with Ruby Walsh guiding him to a solid if unspectacular 7 length victory. For the purpose of the stats we tried to find a viable alternative, and landed upon Scotsirish after Tidal Bay’s defection to the Ryanair Chase. Looking back it’s clear Scotsirish ran up to the best of recent form, finishing a creditable 5^th. He looked in contention at one point, but faded rounding the home turn.

4:00- [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] Cup

Another race which gave no stand-out selection, and one which saw 14/1 shot Ninetieth Minute narrowly beat Mirage Dore into second. The winner was well within the 11st maximum the statistics required, and was relatively unexposed. His trainer, the lesser known A J Taffe, was enjoying his first ever win at Cheltenham, and was a welcome change from the previously dominant four of Edward O'Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O'Neil.

5:15- Champion Bumper

The poor record of 4 year olds in the Champion Bumper continued in 2009, with Latin America the first home in a distant 13^th. The eventual winner Dunguib made in 12 from 13 winners who have finished 1^st or 2^nd prior to running in the bumper (92%), and it was another success for Ireland, who have now won 11 or the last 13 renewals (84%). However it wasn’t such a successful race for Willie Mullins, who could only manage a best of 4^th with Quel Espirit, and whose strike-rate in this now drops to 46% from the last 13 runnings.

Day Three

1:30- Jewson Novices’ Chase

Kia Kaha flew the statistical flag in this one and was, after going off the 15/2 favourite, a disappointing 10^th, never jumping fluently throughout the race. The winner Chapoturgeon was well weighted, carrying the minimum end of that required statistically. He also had the required form, winning back at Doncaster at the end of January. That was his sole win prior to this, and as such he was suitably unexposed. The only thing that held him back statistically was his age, and his win brought first ever winning 5 year old, with all previous winners aged 7. He would certainly have been on the shortlist had he been slightly older, however with only four previous renewals of this race there is plenty of time for trends to be reshaped into more reliable patterns, and there will be many more winners like Chapoturgeon in years to come.

2:05 Pertemps Final Hurdle

The statistical selection, Syncronished was a faller at the last when well held, and never looked like threatening in all honesty. The eventual winner Kayf Armis was ideally aged to win this statistically, and his previous win now makes it 8 from the last 13 (61%) who were victorious coming into this event. He was, statistically, slightly light in the weights to make any apparent impact, and his win now makes it 3 from 12 (25%) who have won carrying less than 10-6.

3:20 [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] World Hurdle

A race in which Kasbah Bliss was expected to dominate statistically, however he was no match for the powerful winner Big Bucks. The Nicholls trainer horse was certainly shortlisted prior to the race, as was 2^nd placed Punchestowns, however he was overlooked due to his previously poor Cheltenham form (7^th in the Jewson last year). Indeed he is only the 4^th horse in 13 runnings (30%) to have won this race without placing at the Festival the year before, and he is the first ever horse to win this without participating in previous renewals of it or the Supreme Novices’. He ticked all the other boxes, and was, in the end, a not unsurprising winner statistically.

4:00- Festival Plate

The first outright winner for the stats came courtesy of Something Wells, and, at 33/1, it was well worth the wait! His win with a rating of 139 now makes it 10 from 12 winners (83%) who won with an official rating between 128 and 141, and his previous experience in the Jewson (All be it as a faller), now makes it 16 of the last 18 winners (88%) who have done the same. At 10-7 he made it 12 of the last 13 winners (92%) who have now carried less than 11-3, and his 2^nd at Chepstow in February now means 9 of 13 winners (69%) have placed prior to winning the Plate. Martin Pipe’s recent good record ended, with 10^th placed Pablo Du Charmil the best he could manage.

4:40- Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The stats failed to adequately narrow down the field in this one, and as such we were left with Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan's Future, That's Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star. In the end it was Pretty Star who faired best, coming only a length behind winner Character Building. The winner became only the 5^th horse in 21 years to win carrying more than 11 stone (11-12!), and its official rating of 139 made him only the 3^rd winner in 12 attempts (25%) to defy the 128 ‘maximum.’ Whilst there was place form to his name (Last 3 runs red 933), it was difficult to see J Quinn’s charge winning this, and it was a definite bucking of the trends to finish day three.

Day Four

1:30- Triumph Hurdle

The final day, and one which started with another disappointing run from statistical selection Trenchant.Eventual winner Zaynar had run the required amount of times previously (4) and, by winning lto at Newbury, ticked a further two boxes. His SP was well within the 20/1 guideline at 11/2, however he had only previously won one race, that previously mentioned, and became only the 3^rd horse in 13 attempts (23%) to win with less than two wins previously. Furthermore his last preparation race came in December, far too late according to past trends. Indeed he became the first ever winner of the Triumph to do so with a preparation race before February.

2:05- Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Too many to choose from statistically in this so we’ll concentrate purely on winner American Trilogy, ridden superbly by the on form Mr Walsh. Paul Nicholls’ horse carried on the trend of past winners with regards to weight, and it is now 10 winners from 13 (76%) who have weighed 11st or less, and his official rating of 135 means the last 11 of 12 winners (92%) had an OR between 128 and 145 . However, at 20/1, he is only the second horse ever to win at odds over 16/1 (15%), and his previous 9^th at Newbury makes him the 6^th winner of this race to have failed to place lto (46%).

3:20- Gold Cup

All the signs pointed to Denman retaining his crown; however he was beaten by a country mile by stable-mate Kauto Star, who was an imperious 13 lengths clear come the winning post. He was at the upper end of the required age range (9), and was the 9^th winner ever to go off at less than 15/2 (75%). He had ridden slightly too many times over fences (20 in all), and was the first ever winner to exceed the 6-13 previous rides over the sticks that past winners had, however he had won lto in the King George on Boxing Day. His win comes as no shock, he outclassed the rest of the field with ease, and Denman’s connections can have no complaints in truth.

5:15- Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

A statistical selection to end a wonderful week’s racing came in the form of Poquelin,however, as seems to be the theme this week, it came a poor 8^th. The winner Oh Crick, made it 11 winners from 13 (85%) who carried 10-12 or less, and his 2^nd at Hereford lto makes it 9 from 13 (69%) who placed prior to winning the finale. When you also consider his SP of 7/1 (Considerably lower than when I previewed the race!), he ticks all the boxes, and was a worthy statistical winner.

And that’s it! Festival over for another year, and we look forward to Aintree next month. Hope this has been informative; I tried to keep it short and sweet for you all! Thoughts and feedback appreciated.

[The Fox]

This is the 1st time ive seen this thread, it completely passed me by under the radar.
Ive had a read through and there's some very informative stuff, so keep up the good work and thanks your work isn't going unappreiated.

[Palmersears]

Cheers Fox

Concentrated on the big race at Uttoxeter tomorrow, the John Smith's Midland Grand National.

3:10- John Smith's Midlands Grand National (4m1f110y)

Key Trends:

• 6 of the previous 8 winners (75%) were 8 or 9 years old.

• 6 of the previous 8 winners (75%) also weighed less between 10 and 11 stone.

• 6 of 8 (75%) also came 1st or 2nd lto.

• All 8 previous winners had at least 3 runs prior to this race this season.

The age filter immediately gets ride of nine, and a further four weigh more than 11-0, so they are also discarded. Badgerlaw, Dom D´Orgeval, Sea Diva, Beat The Boys & Flintoff are all discarded due to their failure to place lto, which leaves us with Appleadayand Kilcrea Asla.

Appleaday has had three runs as required, and he won nicely at Sandown in February, a run which was preceeded by two seconds at Newbury in January and December respectively. It must be noted that all were Class 3 wins, so this is a step up in class.

Kilcrea Asla also has three runs to his name this season, winning lto at Ludlow in a Class 3. However his form isn't quite as respectable at Appleaday's with a fourth at Cheltenham (Behind Ping Pong Saviola) in January and a second at Newcastle behind Akilak. However both runs before his win were in Class 2's, which has to be taken into account.

Overall it's apparent that there are positives and negatives to both. Appleaday has the better form when read as it comes, but Kilcrea Asla has been running in a higher class. At 12/1 and 7/1 respectively there's e/w value in both, and as such, with little tochoose between the two, I reccommend having a little e/w tickle on both.

Selection:

Appleadaye/w @7/1
Kilcrea Asla e/w @12/1


Also, having given the trainers to watch a break over Cheltenham, their entries running tomorrow are:


Terry Mills

4:05 Lingfield- Murrin
5:45 Lingfield- Salt Of The Earth

J R Cornwall

4:45 Uttoxeter- Supreme Leisure

[The Duke]

Superb stuff.

Would you mind if I published the stats pieces on the main website Palmer?

[Palmersears]

By all means Duke

[Palmersears]

The John Smith's Midlands Grand National turned out to be a dissapoinitng statistical affair, with both selections, Appleaday and Kilcrea Asla, pulling-up. The eventual winner, Russian Trigger became only the second 7 year old in 9 runnings to win (25%). At 10-9 he was well weighted, had won prior to this in the Kent National at Folkestone in February, and had finished 133 over his three chase runs this season. With all that in mind it was purely his age which denied him a place on the shortlist, and as such he wasn't a total bolt from the blue.

Trainers are warming up a bit now, with Terry Mills' Murrin finding only one too good in the 4:05 at Lingfield, and at 7/1, would have made a nice e/w payout.

One race which catches the eye is the Novices' Hurdle at Fontwell (2:20), which has seen 6 & 7 year olds victorious on 7 of the last 10 occasions (70%). In addition, only two of ten have been under 11-0 in the weights. This leaves us with odds-on favourite Santia and a viable e/w alternative King Edmund, who ticks all the boxes, and is a nice 12/1 chance. Given the fact that favourites have a poor record in this, winning only 30% of renewals, I'd be prepared to take a chance on the selection grabbing a place.

Finally, trainers to watch today:

J R Cornwall:

1:40 Southwell- Kercabellec

[Palmersears]

Santia won readily in the end, and a change in tactics seemed to do the statistical selection no favours, he pulled so hard for the first circuit he found nowt when it was required unfortunately.

Trainers are still doing nothing

[broadsword]

Have to agree with fox and the duke this is cracking stuff.Really interesting reading.Cheltenham review is fantastic.Just off the top of my head though I remember Zaynar winning 2 races beating Walk on and next time out beating Stow. Don't know if that would have pushed him into your selections?

[The Duke]

Just to let you know I've published your statistical review on both [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] and [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

Keep this sort of work coming, it's most valuable to the website and its users.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by broadsword

Have to agree with fox and the duke this is cracking stuff.Really interesting reading.Cheltenham review is fantastic.Just off the top of my head though I remember Zaynar winning 2 races beating Walk on and next time out beating Stow. Don't know if that would have pushed him into your selections?

Indeed he did, however his that last win at Ascot was still outside the 51 day window that nearly all previous winners had run inside, so he would have fallen at the last stat unfortunately.

Crap racing today, so I'll leave you with this titbit of statistical info (Which the RP have also spotted):

Alan King has a 30% strike-rate in novice hurdles at Taunton over the last four seasons (11 from 37) for an £11.72 level stakes profit and he saddles Alflora Dora in the 2:20.

Trainers to follow:

Terry Mills

4:00 Kempton- Pegasus Again

[Palmersears]

Alflora Dora was dissapointing, and hasn't yet found a decent distance that suits. Pegasus Again faired much better, coming home second nat 11/1. He'll do more over 7f though I feel.

Awful racing today, so I'll leave you with the trainers entries:

Jim Best:

4:50 Kempton- Smoothly Does It