Palmersears' Ones To Watch

[Palmersears]

As many regulars will know, I've compiled a list of 'Ones To Watch' over the course of the winter, and have been following them in the daily racing threads since the start of the season. This concept is nothing revolutionary, with numerous lists across the internet. Some are almost, if not entirely, identical to mine, some vary markedly. This isn't a magic list gaurenteed to make you rich, it's simply my personal opinion of the 60 horses I felt would be worth keeping the right side of over the season.

The only rule is 'three strikes and your out.' I'm willing to allow all the following horses three consecutive bad runs before they are struck from the list. It'd be stupid to discard a horse after one poor run, they're only animals like you or I, but likewise after three poor runs it's pretty pointless to continue to follow them. By September we'll probably be down to 20 or so who are still doing the business, but we will see in due course. I'll edit the list accordingly when we are forced to cut horses from it.

Firstly, the complete list of horses and their trainers:

Horse	Trainer
Alanbrooke	M Johnston
Alcalde	M Johnston
Alwaary	J H M Gosden
Beauty O' Gwaun	J M Oxx
Black Bear Island	A P O'Brien
Border Patrol	R Charlton
Bravo Echo	J H M Gosden
Cape Quarter	W J Haggas
Catskill Mountain	P W Chapple-Hyam
Cityscape	R Charlton
Coming Back	J H M Gosden
Corrybrough	H Candy
Delegator	B Meehan
Dream Win	Sir M Stoute
Father Time	H Cecil
Favours Brave	J H M Gosden
Foolin Myself	M Bell
Forte Dei Marmi	L Cumani
Four Winds	M Bell
Glass Harmonium	Sir M Stoute
Halfway House	M Bell
Haashed	M Johnston
Highland Glen	Sir M Stoute
Hyades	H Cecil
Imposing	Sir M Stoute
Ithbaat	J H M Gosden
Jedi	Sir M Stoute
La De Two	S Bin Suroor
Leocorno	Sir M Stoute
Libel Law	M Jarvis
London Bridge	J H M Gosden
Mawatheeq	M Tregoning
Midday	H Cecil
Mooakada	J H M Gosden
Moresco	W Swinburn
Namibian Orator	Sir M Stoute
Nehaam	J H M Gosden
North East Corner	B Hills
On Our Way	H Cecil
Ouster	D Elsworth
Palace Moon	H Morrison
Palavicini	J Dunlop
Parthenon	M Johnston
Presvis	L Cumani
Prohibition	W Haggas
Raaeidd	M Jarvis
Redwood	B Hills
Sans Frontieres	J Noseda
Saptapadi	Sir M Stoute
Sariska	M Bell
Sea The Stars	J M Oxx
Sonning Gate	D Elsworth
South Easter	W Haggas
Speed Dating	Sir M Prescott
Stoic	J Noseda
Stone Of Scone	E Dunlop
Swiss Guard	A P O'Brien
Taameer	M Tregoning
You Say I Say	Sir M Stoute

Throughout the season I'll post up when and where they're all due to run. As is to be expected we'll get a fair few meeting in races over due course, but I'll evaluate the chances of each. If anybody has any questions or comments let me know.

We have two for today, with Hyades and Ithbaat meeting in the 6:30 Maiden Stakes over 1m.

Hyades caught my eye when there was plenty to like about his Newmarket debut back in October. Was sent off favourite at Newbury on his return to action but he was ultimately a bit disappointing there, failing to find much when asked for an effort. Only only his third start today it's too soon to write off him off, despite this shorter trip not being sure to suit. Best priced 11/8 at the moment.

Ithbaat was one I liked with his debut fourth at Sandown back in August last year where he was very green but did well when asked and kept on nicely. He's sure to do better with that initial experience behind him, the stable continues to bang in the winners (LSP of £36.92 this season so far) and is also 11/8.

Overall it's impossible to choose between the two, as the betting suggests. With Hyades entered in the Dante next month I'll be keeping a close eye on his performance in particular.

[rogsmith]

Great stuff mate,must have taken you a fair few hours to come up with the list.Will be very interesting to follow and thanks for sharing it.

[The Duke]

I'm sure this will prove very lucrative during the flat season.

[andthereoff]

Good luck Palmersears and thanks for the list

[FMH]

Top work Palmer, will keep an eye on these

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

We have two for today, with Hyades and Ithbaat meeting in the 6:30 Maiden Stakes over 1m. Hyades caught my eye when there was plenty to like about his Newmarket debut back in October. Was sent off favourite at Newbury on his return to action but he was ultimately a bit disappointing there, failing to find much when asked for an effort. Only only his third start today it's too soon to write off him off, despite this shorter trip not being sure to suit. Best priced 11/8 at the moment. Ithbaat was one I liked with his debut fourth at Sandown back in August last year where he was very green but did well when asked and kept on nicely. He's sure to do better with that initial experience behind him, the stable continues to bang in the winners (LSP of £36.92 this season so far) and is also 11/8. Overall it's impossible to choose between the two, as the betting suggests. With Hyades entered in the Dante next month I'll be keeping a close eye on his performance in particular.

1st and 2nd respectively, so we even got the f/c

To be fair it was a fairly average maiden run at an ordinary pace, so I don't think we can confidently say they'll set the world alight, but Hyades justified the market support to win over this shorter trip on this quicker ground with plenty in hand. He should stay 1m2f and may do better still granted a sound surface. Entered in the Dante for his next run.

Ithbaat was a market drifter, and, although running creditably on this reappearance after again missing the break, is going to have to settle better than he did on the way to post and in the race itself if he is to fulfil his potential. He again showed enough to suggest he can win races in the coming months however. No forthcoming entries for the near future it would appear, but if anything pops up my reminder service will inform me.

Nothing for today, although a quick glance through the RP database suggests we have 15 of the list running over the next week, so it's getting busier.

[broadsword]

Only Just looked at this thread ,like JTW's trend thread it had gone completley unoticed.Good luck with these Palmer top stuff as always

[Palmersears]

Right, deep breath as we have six of the list running tomorrow!

Firstly we have Foolin Myself in the Suffolk Stakes at 2:00 over 1m1f. Looked very promising as he won a 7f maiden here from Tartan Bearer in November 2007 for Barry Hills but he struggled on his reappearance at Newbury a fortnight ago when the long absence appeared to catch up with him in the closing stages on soft ground when favourite. He should be all the better for that outing and remains capable of better, and Group 1 entries in the Corination Cup, Prince of Wales' and Eclipse suggest connections think he's capable of big things. Currently 4/1 with Hills and Paddy, which looks nice.

It's then off to Thirsk for a 1m4f Maiden featuring Lasso The Moon. He started off promisingly on easy ground at Newbury but was beaten at odds-on only his subsequent start as a 2yo. Caught my eye when he looked like a real stayer back on softer ground on his reappearance and this sharper track and faster conditions shoudl be to his liking. Is travelling a fair way for this but he sets the standard for others to follow.

As it to be expected, we then see no fewer than four of the list go head to head in the 2000 Guineas, with Delegator, Cityscape and Sea The Stars clashing.

Cityscape was a highly progressive as a juvenile when runner-up in the Royal Lodge and suggested he had trained on well when runner-up in the Greenham a fortnight ago. Will be suited by this return to 1m but needs deal of further improvement now, especially as he's tackling quick ground for the first time. Currently 14/1.

Delegator has done all his racing at Newmarket, acquitting himself with great credit against much more battle-hardened rivals when a close fifth in the Dewhurst after having to challenge wide. Rightly justified very bullish reports about his progress this spring when making an impressive return in the Craven Stakes over C&D, coming from last to first to swamp rivals for speed. Obviously that's not not the strongest of contests compared to this but he looks like a high-class prospect and is rightly near the head of the market at 4/1.

Sea The Stars has a top-class pedigree, out of an Arc winner who has produced three Group/Grade 1 winners, headed by Galileo. Looked an excellent prospect himself too last year when beating some smart sorts in good finish to the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh in September but he has been the subject of mixed messages this spring. Is yet to race on faster than good but connections feel he should be effective on it. Best priced 11/1 currently.

It's then onto the 4:55 Newmarket Stakes over 1m2f, where Palavicini runs. I was encouraged that he achieved what he did as a juvenile considering he's bred to make a better middle-distance 3yo, and he stuck to his task when close-up fourth in a well-contested 1m2f Class 3 at Newbury on return a fortnight ago (Behind Four Winds) and is likely capable of better still.

EDIT: On Our Way and Boarder Patrol are now none-runners due to the ground at Newmarket an Doncaster respectively.

[Palmersears]

Looking back on yesterday, and Foolin Myself firstly, who finished a poor 12th in the Suffolk Stakes. Didn't really look happy throughout, failing to make an impact, and probably suffered from 'the bounce.' Strike 1 for him.

Up at Thirsk Lasso The Moon made hard work of getting to the front before doing little once there. Doesn't appear to be all that reliable, but the introduction of some headgear could persuade him to try harder. Still, strike 1 for him also.

To the 2000 Guineas next, with Sea The Stars a 1 1/2 length victor over fellow 'One to Watch' Delegator. The John Oxx colt was drawn on the nearside wing of the field, and was soon travelling well, tracking Ocean´s Minstrel, and once he made his move and tackled Delegator going to the furlong pole he always looked the stronger stayer. He now goes straight to the Derby, for which Guineas sponsors [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] make him a 4-1 chance.

Delegator was drawn on the opposite flank to the winner, and he travelled strongly at the back of the field and quickened impressively to lead before the furlong marker. Once in front, however, he hung left, possibly feeling the ground, which had been a concern to connections, and he was then always likely to come off second best. The Irish 2,000 Guineas is the obvious race for him, but he has had two quick races on fast ground and there is no hurry to commit him. He has no pretensions to staying further, so the St James´s Palace would be the alternative. I'm hesitant to give him a strike for this run as he did everything right until 1f out.

Cityscape was less successful, and having never run on ground this quick, was soon floundering. Nevertheless I expected a better showing, and he also gets his first strike.

Finally to the Newmarket Stakes, where Palavicini was narrowly beaten into second. He came from further back than the winner, but put in a determined effort towards the far side of the track and despite giving it his all, he was always just held. He appeared to improve for the better ground and looks capable of winning a nice race given a strongly run race and/or a longer trip next time. No strike for him either.

Despite being convinced we had a couple for today it now appears we don't There should be some tomorrow, but I'll update later.

[Palmersears]

Hurrah, we have four of the list running tomorrow, starting with Raaeidd and Sonning Gate in Windsor's 3:55 1m Handicap.

Raaeidd was very green on his debut at Newmaket last October and he caught my eye when he stepped up markedly on that effort to get off the mark in a 7f maiden at Great Leighs the following month, particularly with his strong finish. This trip will probably be the minimum for him this season (Dam was second in the Oaks) but clearly open to a good deal of improvement.

Sonning Gate has a record of steady improvement, twice successful on Lingfield's Polytrack at the end of last year before running as well as could have been expected when trying to give weight to couple of unexposed sorts back on turf on recent Sandown return. Remains open to improvement liek Raaeidd, but has to give wieght away once more.

Secondly we move to the 4:25 maiden at the same venue, where Walter Swinburn's Zouk runs. He made an encouraging start to his career when a never-nearer 14-1 fourth of 14 behind 79-rated winner Mister Dee Bee in a 1m Ripon maiden on debut last month. Is sure to be wiser this time, and with Ryan Moore on board, looks sure to go close.

Finally we have Speed Dating in the finale at Newcastle. This horse showed limited promise in three starts at shorter as a 2yo but, like so many from this yard, it will be no surprise to see plenty of improvement now he's upped in trip (Bred to stay 1m) and is sent handicapping off modest mark this term, particularly if there's any market confidence.

Will update these with prices later tonight/before I venture to the zoo tomorrow

[Palmersears]

Not too good a day really. In the first, Raaeidd was a none-runner, whilst Sonning Gate finished just out of the places in fourth on his handicap debut. He ran respectably in defeat, considering this may have come soon enough, and is the type his trainer does very well with. Avoids a strike, narrowly.

In the 4:25 Zouk came under pressure around 2f out and lacked the pace to land a telling blow finishing fifth. This was still no disgrace and he becomes eligible for a handicap mark after his next assignment. Another who avoids a first strike.

Finally the 5:15 at Newcastle where Speed Dating appeared to struggle on his handicap debut. He came off the bridle fairly early in the straight and was readily outpaced in the closing stages. He is probably well handicapped but on this evidence he needs a bit more time. After a poor show he does receive his first strike.

[The Duke]

Speed Dating wants alot further mate, keep an eye on this when it goes over further.

Keep these good pieces of writing coming, they're much appreciated on here

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by The Duke

Speed Dating wants alot further mate, keep an eye on this when it goes over further. Keep these good pieces of writing coming, they're much appreciated on here

No problemo, glad to oblige. I'll possibly do a big monthly update each month as well just to keep people up to speed with those on the list doing well and vice versa.

As for Speed Dating I fully agree that the trip wasn't ideal, but I thought he could have gone about his work slightly better than he did. Certainly will do better over further like you say.

[Palmersears]

Just one for tomorrow, and that's Jedi in the 4:00 at Chester. Holds progressive form as a 2yo when he was a narrow winner of an ordinary 1m Nottingham maiden in the mud. He lacked the pace to get in a telling blow under quicker conditions on handicap debut over 1m2f on return last month and should appreciate this further step up in trip (half-brother to Park Hill winner Hi Calypso), but he'll need to step up somewhat to claim victory.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

Just one for tomorrow, and that's Jedi in the 4:00 at Chester. Holds progressive form as a 2yo when he was a narrow winner of an ordinary 1m Nottingham maiden in the mud. He lacked the pace to get in a telling blow under quicker conditions on handicap debut over 1m2f on return last month and should appreciate this further step up in trip (half-brother to Park Hill winner Hi Calypso), but he'll need to step up somewhat to claim victory.

Finished 3rd and ran well enough given the tactical nature of the race. Easier ground would probably be in his favour, and one would expect that the Bibury Cup at Salisbury will be on his agenda next month. No strike for him.

For tomorrow we have just the one, Saptapadi in the Chester Vase at 2:45. He's a brother to high-class stayer Patkai and no doubt he is going to improve as his stamina is increasingly brought into play and he gets more streetwise. Was unable to get in a blow after being held up when fourth to Above Average in muddling Sandown Classic Trial on return. Is a good horse, but this race needs to see a big step forward from him. Currently 11/2.

[Palmersears]

Saptapadi,who was over four lengths behind Above Average in the Sandown Classic Trial last month, managed to reverse that form but although he made some late progress, he could never get near the leaders. This was only his third start though and he is another that may well continue to progress with racing. No strike for him just yet.

We have three running today, starting with Libel Law and South Easter in the Dee Stakes at 2:15.

Libel Law ran in two maidens, leaving his 2yo debut form well behind when he finished strongly under pressure to win in clear-cut style at Windsor (1m2f, good to firm) 18 days ago. Holds a King Edward VII entry and is very promising. 6/1 is a good e/w price at the least.

South Easter is alate-foaled Galileo colt who holds a Derby entry, so he's clearly well thought of. Went off at 16-1 but made a fine start when second of 12 in a maiden at Newbury (1m, soft) last month behind fellow 'One to Watch' Boarder Patrol, but he was 6l clear of the third. Like Libel Law he's open to major improvement, and is also a nice e/w price at 6/1.

We also have Favours Brave in the 3:00 at Nottingham. He has shaped reasonably well, finishing in midfield on his only juvenile start in a Newmarket maiden and when plugging on for this jockey over 1m4f at Kempton lto. Is on a feasible mark for handicap debut, is out of a useful performer over this far and shapes as though stamina test will suit. Is from a yard in form, and should go well at 9/2.

[Palmersears]

Well, we found the winner of the Dee Stakes South Easter was taking a jump in class today, but he is certainly bred for the job and showed a determined attitude to score. He was always likely to improve for the rise in distance, his debut effort having been over 1m, and Neil Callan secured an excellent position on the rail just behind the leaders. He was briefly tapped for toe when the pace quickened, but came strong in the straight, and, having fought his way to the front, stuck out a willing head to hold the late challenge of the unlucky runner-up. There is every reason to expect further progress from the son of Galileo as he goes up to 1m4f, but he won't be winning a Derby on this evidence. He is generally around a 40/1 for Epsom.

Libel Law was up markedly in grade and didn't look up to it, finishing 6th. He receives his first strike.

Over at Nottingham, Favours Brave was hugely dissapointing, struggling from the off it appeared. He also receives a strike.

For tomorrow we have four running, starting with Midday in the 2:40 Oaks Trial at Lingfield. Has an Oaks entry, and is out of half-sister to Oaks winner Reams Of Verse. Has had much more action than several of these and perhaps open to less improvement, but on the other hand probably the best form, judged on her close fourth in 1m Newmarket Listed race final 2yo start and her third to this week's Chester Vase third Debussy at Epsom (1m2f). 1m4f will suit and she's the one to beat.

It's then on to the Derby Trial (3:15), with Alwaary and Father Time going head-to-head.

Alwaary was a late foal who went through two 1m maidens last September, impressing with the way he came from off the pace to win in clear-cut fashion at Yarmouth (good). By stamina influence Dynaformer out of unraced sister to stable's 1,000 Guineas winner Lahan, and is very promising.

Father Time is brother to stable's very smart 2yo and middle-distance filly Passage Of Time and his debut win over 1m on AW in November and 2l third in conditions stakes at Newbury (1m2f, good to soft) in April confirmed he's very useful if rather green. Went as if this step up in trip would suit and should be in the reckoning.

Finally we come to the 4:20 Maiden, which sees Highland Glen compete. Has a very good 1m4f+ pedigree, however his seventh of 13 at Newmarket (1m, good) last October was a quiet start and he failed to enter the stalls on intended reappearance (6-1 third favourite at the time, behind a Cecil-trained good thing) late last month. Betting will give some clues, but he shoudl go well.

[Palmersears]

Not bad yesterday, and to start with it was hard not to be taken by Midday, who ran out quite an impressive winner. Positioned just in behind the leaders for much of the way, she was a little keen through the early stages, but it was nothing to be worried about and she handled both the downhill run and the turn into the straight beautifully. Once in line for home, she extended intaking style without her rider having to be overly vigorous.

A strong case can now be made for her giving Henry Cecil a ninth Oaks winner (another half a furlong will be no problem, she handles undulations and is thriving at just the right time), particularly with this year's race arguably lacking much depth, and the 8-1 generally available looks fair enough.

In the Derby Trial Father Time was set a lot to do by Tom Queally, and swung wider than ideal into the straight, but he looks quite a free-going type - wears a cross-noseband - so his rider probably had little choice but to try and settle him out the back. After not handling the downhill run all that well, he made up plenty of ground to move into a threatening position on the outside in the closing stages, but he could never quite get on top, with his earlier exertions probably just telling. Although he looks to have the ability to make up into a genuine Group horse, he still appears immature and one would like to see him settle better in future. A stronger pace on a more galloping track is likely to help on that score, and a race like the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot could be a suitable target. A slightly dissapointing run, and he receives his first strike.

Alwaary had been off since winning a 1m maiden at Yarmouth in September and he never got in a blow at the front three. He had apparently only been working "okay" before this, so it's not unreasonable to assume the race might bring him on a good deal. Still, he too receives a strike.

Finally the 4:20 Maiden, which saw Highland Glen emerge victorious. This was a significant improvement on the form he showed in a 1m maiden at Newmarket on his only start at two and he looks a useful prospect. He has no fancy entries and it would be no surprise if he went down the handicap route for the time being, but whatever the case, he can be expected to progress, especially when upped to 1m4f-plus.

A quick glance doesn't appear to throw up any entries tomorrow, but I'll see if the reminder service throws up anything later tonight.

[The Duke]

Good stuff mate, keep us updated.

[Palmersears]

We have one for tomorrow after all, Ithbaat in the 3:30 at Yarmouth. He wasn't seen as a 2yo after making a promising debut at Sandown in the summer but returned with a good effort over this C&D last month, finishing second to fellow 'One to Watch' Hyades. He pulled too hard for his own good then and still looked green, but is entitled to have come on from that and he sets a good standard in what looks to be a decent maiden.

[The Duke]

Yeah, that'll win.

[Palmersears]

I agree Duke. Won't be much of a price though I would imagine.

[Palmersears]

Originally Posted by Palmersears

We have one for tomorrow after all, Ithbaat in the 3:30 at Yarmouth. He wasn't seen as a 2yo after making a promising debut at Sandown in the summer but returned with a good effort over this C&D last month, finishing second to fellow 'One to Watch' Hyades. He pulled too hard for his own good then and still looked green, but is entitled to have come on from that and he sets a good standard in what looks to be a decent maiden.

Has just won easily enough, however at 4/9 it won't make anybody rich.

With York approaching we'll have a few this week, particularly in the Dante. Will keep you updated.

[kidoncricketer]

respect to ye laddie yer flying high man, flying high

[Palmersears]

A busy old day tomorrow, with six currently entered to run.

We start with the first race of the York meeting at 1:40, with Stone Of Scone. He has a top-class pedigree and looked like a smart prospect on his return from almost a year off on handicap debut at Nottingham a fortnight ago, defying market weakness and top weight to beat Red Jade with a powerful late run. Has gone up 7lb for that and today's forecast ground is much quicker than anything he's been on before, but assuming he handles the ground he has to be respected.

Secondly it's on to the 2:10, and Barry Hills' North East Corner. He looked promising when making a successful debut in 7f fast-ground Newmarket maiden last September but the form from that hasn't yet been franked and he stopped quickly when last of seven in Group 3 over the same C&D next time. This is a much more realistic return race (has Derby and St James' Palace entries), however stable-companion Photographic appears on first betting shows to be the more realistic option. 11/1 is a good e/w price though.

We stay at York for the 2:40 Group 3 Musidora Stakes and Sariska. She made a highly encouraging start to her career when winning a 7f Newmaket fillies maiden last November but suggested middle distances could prove her forte (plenty of stamina in female line) when fourth in Newbury Group 3 over the same trip on her return last month, staying on well after a slow start and meeting some trouble. As with Stone of Scone the quicker ground is the question mark here (half-sister Gull Wing liked plenty of ease), and I'm always dubious of Frank in big races, but 5/2 is a fair price.

Our last in Britain is again at York, where Raaeidd will be attempting to bring home the bacon for Michael Jarvis. He was very green on debut at Newmaket last October and stepped up markedly on that effort when off the mark in a 7f maiden at Kempton the following month, catching the eye with a strong finish. Is likely to stay at least this far (dam was second in the Oaks) and is open to deal of improvement. 8/1 makes him a huge e/w bet for me.

It's then over to Ireland for Kevin Prendergast's King Ledley in the 6:20. He was such an emphatic winner of the first two-year-old race of the season that it is not a huge concern that the form of the race has not worked out especially well. The only winners to emerge from it have been the Jim Bolger-trained fourth Eireannach and Royal Entourage, who won a median auction maiden at Dundalk, but this American-bred colt left the impression that he would fit comfortably into much better company, and the forecast 9/4 looks a gift to me.

We round things off in the Blue Wind Stakes at 7:20, with John Oxx's Beauty O' Gwaun. The main strength in John Oxx's juvenile team last year was in the colts department, but the stable also unveiled a very promising filly late in the season in the shape of this horse. A daughter of Rainbow Quest, she looked a smart middle distance prospect when beating The Bull Hayes by 3l over 7f at the Curragh in October, and the forecast 10/3 looks a nice price indeed.