The money down the toilet thread

[Spook]

So far, this is where its going

Tuesday

Supreme - No bet (Dunguib likely winner, but too short to back, and too likely to lay. Sit and watch)

Arkle - Was going to be another no bet race, but I'm finding myself persuaded by Riverside Theatre. The logic being there's only 4 potential winners i can see, and yet I've taken a similar price in the Champion hurdle in a race with potentially double the number of feasible winners. Bad punting. If I'd reduced it to a simple maths scenario I'd have concentrated on the Arkle. I'm a bit nervous about Henderson's nomination of Cap't Cee Bee though at last nights Sandown preview, so might even try the forecast yet. No decision made yet

Wm Hill - Haven't looked at. Want to see the final field, but likely to be a no bet race again

Champion Hurdle - 9/1 on Khyber Kim and 16/1 on Solwhit. Quite happy to let that ride, as I'm sure Claisse will give both a chance with ground on the slow side of good.

Hedge Hopping race - Can't be bothered (Garde Champetre most likely winner) no price and no bet

Mares race - Zarinava was might impressive at Doncaster and having lost to Voler la Vadette it's difficult not to think that Colm Murphy will have this one. I'm not sure what to make of her win over Go Native and am inclined to dismiss it a bit (but not altogether). Voler la Vadette most likely winner but no bet again.

Very quiet day anticipated, but this is a marathon not a sprint. No point doing my dough early on things I'm not that confident about (plenty of time for that on Thursday). In any event, the opening day has rarely been that kind to me.


Wednesday

Hunt Cup - Rubbish e/w terms and another race I've never really got on with. Never worked out how to reverse engineer the dosage angle on this, and so a no bet race.

Neptune - Felt that Rite of Passage would be about 4/1 or even 9/2 in places on the day and so left this alone. Should have backed Quel Esprit when he was 12/1 about 10 days ago as i could see him being the one for money. These would be my two against the field and the markets kind of got there now. RoP was only 1.20 secs slower than Solwhit over C&D in winning the Irish Champion in what most observers felt was a champion pace. That being so, then carrying 2Ibs more, the novice has beaten Sublimity, Donnas Palm and Celestial halo on his debut, and this despite being taken wide by a loose horse. Interestingly Quel Esprit also ran on the same card, and he actually covers the final half mile faster than both of the other two, which is no mean achievement given that he's had to run an extra 4F's to that point. Rite of Passage was only given a crack of the reins though, where as Quel Esprit was driven, so his 0.35 secs advantage needn't be as significant as it appears. If RoP stays 21F's then I'd be inclined to back him, but might just throw a forecast into save too.

RSA Chase - Not a bad race for me, but I've taken little interest this year. Burton Port would be my idea of the e/w value, but I need one of the main two to fall by the way side to entertain the bet. Leaning towards a no bet, especially as I don't believe there's anything wrong with Weapons Amnesty either. In fact weapons could prove the value here. Lenaing towards no bet

Champion Chase - I think I've only lost this 3 times in 12 years (Edredon, Newmill and Masterminded first time). can't see beyond the fav, but this race has a history of fancied runners falling or putting in a race ending jump etc. Tempted to have a rattle at Big Zeb for a place and if masterminded isn't completely on his game, then Big Zeb might be more capable than most of giving him something to think about. I'm actually tempted to take a closer look at Well Chief for a place too before finally deciding what to do

Coral Cup - I've surprisingly done well in this over the years, and will probably place a bet, but want to see how the final field cuts up first, as many of my initial fancies look to be too high in the handicap. Leaning towards a bet, but prepared to sit out if i can't find a candidate I'm happy with

Fred Winter - Juveniles tend to start showing their hands in December when the better ones are introduced. Quite a few of these must have been left short having lost significant spells in February and January. Even when we did race, a lot of it was on poor ground. I've got a feeling there's a few concealed performers in here who haven't had the chance to show what they're capable of yet on a better surface and could spring a shock. I'm inclined to start drawing up a short-list of horses that combines hurdles experience and a flat rating that was earned on good ground and see where it takes me. Open minded at this stage as to whether to bet this race. It's been something of a spectacular graveyard for me down the years. I'm not sure I've even managed to get something into the top half yet

Bumper - Elegant Concorde at 16's but wary of Drumbaloo


Another quiet day really, but it will depend on how the handicaps unfold or what I think I've found in the Fred Winter

[stocksy]

Had a read of Willie Mullins' review of his horses in todays RP and decided to back the following 4 in a yankee:

Jewson - The Midnight Club

Bumper - Up Ou That

RSA - Citizen Vic

Coral Cup - Deutschland

Probs just have a yankee on them. No real reasoning, just the ones I thought he bigged up most at decent prices.

Me other yankee will be:

Grand Annual - Tataniano
Neptune - Finians Rainbow
Champ Hurlde - Celestial Halo
Gold Cup - Cooldine

[Spook]

Thursday is handicap day, and this is where I seem to uncharacteristically be concentrating and have invoked a bit of Kelly to try and land just one bet, which will pay for the festival if any one of them come off.

Jewson - Nicanor at 16/1 e/w BOG & NRNB

Hurdles Finale - Palypso De Creek 25/1 NRNB

RyanAir - haven't decided, but am conscious that I need to throw in a few pattrern races to get the balance right with the handicaps and bigger prices I'm trying to land. Will probably bet, and am tempted by a forecast given that I think Barbers Shop is going to place

World Hurdle - Well 44/1 says Tidal Bay wins and 14/1 that he places. In truth, having mucked about with sections from last year, I don't think there's anything between them in terms of finishing burst. BB hits a flat spot from time to time and might get caught out. Nicholls has been sounding notably less optimistic about him than he has many of his others. I have considered laying off, but I see the two of them rounding the bend together and then it's anyone's. I make BB about 2-3L's better and would expect him to win about 70% of such encounters. These kind of margins aren't the sorts that would have you cashing in a big ticket though, and I'm likely to go for broke and try and win big

The Plate - Why?

Kim Muir - Will look nearer the day, but have half a feel for Galant Nuit base don an old investigation that David asked for a couple years ago from Uttoxeter. Will probably depend how those first three went though. One of them placing will put me in a decent place, and a single win should have everything paid for.


So on to Friday which has been something of mixed bag. Historically I haven't done too badly here, although its invariably been either the County or Grand Annual that's dictated the final score. In recent years though I've lost on the final day so could do with a change of direction.

Triumph - Carlito Brigante 10/1 and Notus De La Tour 25/1. The latter should have been backed NRNB and is my biggest fear of being stung by an NR, although side stepping Sandown has made me a bit more optimistic. If he lines up then I'm actually tempted by a forecast too

County Hurdle - This race cuts up too much to even consider

The Bartlett - Will back the fav here and might need to revisit Cappa Bleu for a place. No money down yet, and this could turn into the 'getting out race' if all has gone up in smoke

Gold Cup - Another getting out stakes, but I'm increasingly joining the bandwagon that thinks Tricky Trickster can place in this. I rate Denman's chances of failing to get round as being higher than his chances are of winning (sadly) and I'm prepared to accept that Cooldines RSA is all wrong and redundant for form study purposes

Foxhunters - stopped betting this race

Martin Pipe Conditionals - Shouldn't even be allowed in the programme

Grand Annual - Have had my eye on Consigcliere for this, but there will no shortage of plotted horses knocking about and 101 Henderson theories to boot. Will look at nearer the day

[Spook]

Given to understand that a comment made at a preview evening tonight by Tom Scudamore suggests that the money on Notus de La Tour is indeed down the toilet.

Feckin Pipe