Madison de Beurlais

[Spook]

Entered (though obviously not confirmed) for the Albert Bartlett hurdle. 20/1 and 48 on [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]..... urm

Intriguing.

Grade 1 winning chaser who's just come second in a King George taking on novice hurdlers at 3 miles. Alright he seemingly hates Cheltenham, but even so.

David Pipe has thrown the odd curve ball before now, and I can't see any reason to enter him unless they were considering it (however remotely). There's no reason to believe he's going to palce in the Gold Cup that I can see, and on last years running might not make the prize money. However, a festival win, is a festival win

One to ponder and keep an eye on

[The Duke]

Very interesting entry.

He's a pretty decent chance on his day, albeit on a flat track but even so, taking on inexperienced novice hurdlers as opposed to taking on experienced top class chasers is a different ball game.

One to keep a beady eye on for sure.

[Spook]

Cappa Bleu at 33/1 catches the eye too, given that he has excuses for Aintree, and Taunton.

[Spook]

My theory concerns the idea that staying hurdelrs are essetially slow..... where as hunter chasers are er.... well...... slow as well. Cappa Bleu wouldn't be the ideal candidate to take the hurdlers on with, but as recently as November he was 33/1 for the Gold Cup, and now he's the same price in a novice hurdle.

Last year he ran the C&D 9.35 secs slower than Kauto Star, but carried 4Ibs more than the Gold Cup horses. Crudely speaking he'd have been 41L's adrift in the Gold Cup. If however we don't make any concession for weight, he was about 46.75L's behind the Gold Cup winner. That broadly equates with Albertas Run (48L's). How comfortable would you be backing Albertas Run against novice hurdlers over 3 miles? Would you reagrd him as a 33/1 shot?

Airforceone was 69L's back in 12th place. A couple of years ago he was a lucky 2nd to Wichita Lineman after Black Harry fell at the last, and finished 12L's off the winner in what was then called the Spa hurdle. Now this is seriously crude, but only meant to be indicative. If we use that to say Wichita would have been 57L's away (which we can't I realise) in the Gold Cup, based on some kind of hurdles extrapolation, then Cappa Bleu's performance in the Foxhunters in finishing a projected 46.75L's off Kauto would have him beating a horse that came second by further, than Wichita Lineman managed in winning.

He should be able to jump, and shouldn't be done for stamina. In fact he's one of those who if he takes the race on from the front and forces it, then he could easily expose some of these novices over 3 miles for stamina (not that I expect them to run that way unfortunately). They must know however that he's not likely to have the toe in a finish, and surely realise that stamina against novices his is trump card.

At Aintree he was tentatively handled, and so much so, that he went into many note books as being lined up for the Hennessy.His trainer estimated him to only have been 85% fit. He wasn't without support come the big day at Newbury, but like a few others that day, ran a poor race and was in retreat before crashing out. Evan Williams is very clear that he needed abreak, and was again well below racing fitness when being reintroduced at Taunton over hurdles. He came second there, and seems to have earned a few nods of approval. The trainer is adamant again that there was no way he could have won at Taunton and was in desperate need of a blow out.

I seriosuly doubt this a grade 1 horse, but then I've long held reservations that this is a grade 1 race. Can a moderate to decent staying chaser beat novices at a staying trip over hurdles? I regard Cappa Bleu as a decent handicapper, but on a form level he might be up to defying the odds he's at? I could easily see him running a place, but if they go the typical slow speed that they do with staying hurdles, then he'll get gubbed in a fast finish. If they makes this a stretch though, then I'd expect him to be among the last screaming "no mas" the way he was falling away in the Hennessy under a faster pace is a worry. I'm tending to the view that he's a hunter whose been protected from a fast pace until he started to run under rules proper, and probably hasn't got the gears.

Interesting entry though, and i don't normally mind taking a chance at these kind of prices on horses that will either sink without trace or run a potential winning race with a bit to spare if all the timings and extrapolations are right

[BrianTheMessiah]

Madison heads straight to Aintree.