Friday's handicaps (Epsom)

[Spook]

Nothing I'm getting buzzed up about, but here goes

2.10

One of the curious features of the past winners is the number of times which that mile handicap at Sandown in late April appears (four I reckon) albeit winners don't tend to follow up. This year it was won by Wannabe King (more of which later). Another curious feature is the number of times the horse has started off on the a/w (6). All of the last 10 winners bar one (Passing Glance) finished in the first two in the last two runs, which does suggest you need to be carrying a bit of form going into this race. Applying these filters takes out quite a few in the field, but I want to cut some slack to Dance and Dance (3rd at York) and Start Right (4th at Meyden). Otherwise I'm left with Wannabe King, Extraterrestrial, Benadonner, Merchant of Medici and Arabian Spirit

Merchant of Medici doesn't look good enough, and Arabian Spirit's record of 2 from 22 wouldn't inspire confidence. Benadonner beat Arabian Spirit by a head LTO at Newmarket and is weighted pretty much the same. I don't see that I can take down one without saying the other isn't good enough through association. Extraterrestrials win at Thirsk doesn't look sharp enough either, which leaves me with just the four to sort out and a return-visit to unravel this Sandown win by Wannabe King who was wearing blinkers for the first time and has them on again for this.


1st Wannabe King 9.1
1.5 Benadonner 8.7 (beaten in 6th)
1.25 Hacienda 8.12 (beaten 7th and fav)
10.25 Dance and Dance 8.11 (beaten in 14th)

Re-weighted for Friday the race should result in more or less the same outcome, albeit Hacienda would be closer. The interesting horse might be the tailed off Dance and Dance who was noted as;

"Very slowly away and raced awkwardly early, soon took keen hold and held up in last pair, effort on inner over 2f out, soon weakened and eased"

the analysis is even more sympathetic;

"Nothing went right for Dance And Dance as he was very slowly away and then pulled like a train when back in touch with the rest of the field. It´s probably best to put a line through this".

But help is at hand as the winner re-opposed Dance and Dance at York in this seemingly very fast mile handicap won by St Morritz. Dance and Dance came third (hurrah), having fluffed the start again (Beschitza and De Sousa) - Ryan Moore booked for Friday. He received 2Ibs from Wannabe King and beat him 6.5L's. In other words, he's turned round 20L's on 2Ibs worse terms, so this must be his true running? Well no, not fully as this time it was Wannabe King's turn to fail to get the run of the race though;

"Held up in rear, not much room 2f out, switched left and some headway approaching final furlong, never a factor"

and

"Wannabe King was out the back alongside Fareer and this run has to be forgotten as he got no run in the home straight".

Don't you just love trying to make sense of handicaps!!!

I'm taking a bit of a flyer, but I reckon the York race is the stronger of the two, and despite the Sandown race seemingly having a greater influence on the outcome of this handicap, I'm prepared to say that Benadonner's proximity to Wannabe King just 1.5L's away is a concern.

The alternative is to find something else and off-hand Start Right looks the most attractive proposition having been beaten as a fav (as a 3yo!!!) in the Irish Cambridgeshire. 4th of 25 against more experienced horses is no mean feat, and the following comments suggest he's shifted horses at the business end too.

"Reluctant to load, held up, headway in centre 1 1/2f out, 9th under 1f out, ran on strongly"

If he's 9th with 200 yds to go, finishing 4th is a credible result. Fallon takes the ride again off the same mark of 98.

Now Kieren also rode him in the English equivalent where he finished 17th behind Credit Swap but got himself on the wrong side of the draw. More indicative I suspect is his group result of 2nd of 10 behind Jo'burg on the stands side, and it's not as if he was extended once the handicap of running from the wrong the side had become apparent

"eased when well beaten inside final furlong, 2nd of 10 in group"

His final race saw Christophe Lemaire take over at Meyden where he's finished a closing 0.75L's, 4th of 16 from the theoretically most disadvantaged stall 16. Five weeks later the winner (Win For Sure) was finishing 4.5L's fourth behind Twice Over in a Gp2. The runner up Navajo Chief would win shortly afterwards, and third placed Raihana would come second in a Gp2 in Dubai before finishing 6.5L's behind Presvis in the Dubai Duty Free.

His is the strongest form in the book and must surely start favourite I'd have said. However, this is a 17 runner field, and true to the bad luck he seems to have been cursed with, he's drawn 17!!! Now the run at the Curragh where he's shifted 5 horses inside the final furlong offers hope that if he can be waited with, then he'll possess the turn of foot from what I think could be a favourable mark to account for these, but if there is a flyer in the ointment, it could have flown.

Dance and Dance drawn in 5 looks the most likely I think, and at this stage I wouldn't be averse to taking 20% of my stake into a forecast with Start Right. Perhaps I could do with a better handle on the 8.5F draw bias at Epsom, as I'm using this as my principal weapon against Start Right

(Probably find they're first and second favs now!!!)


3.25

Tricky looking affair, and the York race probably looks like the first port of call. It's difficult to build any case for Pleasant Day and Sand Skier based on their performance on the Knavesmire, although you could conceivably give the former a bit of slack. Romona Chase is another that doesn't look up to it.

Right Step is weighted to confirm his York form with Resurge to the tune of 3.75L's although perhaps one needs to be respectful of the 6yo's Epsom record of 1, 2, 1, 2, but then Chancellor is the only horse aged older than 5 that's won this in the last 10 renewals.

This looks like being something of an elimination exercise. At the top of the handicap we have Prompter who is 1 from 12 which doesn't inspire confidence. A further examination of his string of seconds tells us that he's lost all of them by less than 0.75L's and 3 by a head. Is he unlucky? or is he ungenuine? He lost 5th place in November handicap by a short head, and similarly lost 5th place by a neck in the Sweet Solario. In other words, whenever he seems to have had close company at the finish it's the other horse that has got ahead of him. Now I'm sure that someone would suggest that in 5 of these 6 'touched off' finishes he's had Hayley Turner in the plate, and that Jamie Spencer does the steering tomorrow? maybe that's the reason? I don't know. A combination of this trait however, and the top weight makes me nervous

John Gosden's Dhaamer could be progressive but I'm not sure his form is that strong. His debut won by Space War hasn't worked out. A Class 6 madien win at Lingfield doesn't scream out at me, and his Sandown handicap win has been let down by both Valiant Knight, First Post, and Realisation none of whom have done anything for it and are plying their trade in modest company today. His Newmarket 7th from his final assignment last term might be as good as he is for the time being, and 14L's to Lethal Gaze isn't taking this.

Mark Johnston's, Licenced to Till (crap name Mark) seems to still be on a recovery mission having incurred some heavy beatings and you couldn't be really confident about him either.

Oriental Scot has some interesting concealed form having come 2 of 12 in the disadvantaged group in the Spring mile at Doncaster, beaten on his side by the useful Onefortheroad (winner at Thirsk NTO and 6th in that York race won St Morritz). True to form though, he let this down of a 28 day break when re-opposing and coming 9th. He's exhibiting a 'long rest pattern' where he's 1, 3, 1, 7 (and that 7 might be assessed as an honorary 2). Off a <35 days pattern though he's 2, 5, 7, 11, 9 and this is the one he's facing here.

Pleasant Day was heavily beaten at York but earns a sympathetic mention as being set a suspiciously difficult assignment

"Pleasant Day. Given plenty to do, he ran on well after being switched right over 2f out, but had far too much ground to make up".

Even so, he's finished 17th of 20. I'm not sure how a horse can run on well and finish 4th last of 20 myself? Had he come midfield I could possibly accept he showed promise, but it doesn't sound as if he was mowing them down exactly. I suspect a bit of sympathetic race reading at play. It might be worth noting however that he seems to suffer from a big field pattern which he faced at York;

12, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 in fields of less than 12 he's 7, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 2

A better showing is possible therefore, but he's still having to turn round 18.5L's with Right Step

By default therefore, I'm coming round to Beaumont's Party whose been raised from 75 to 92 for 2 wins after Kieran O'Neill took him sight seeing down the Rowley Mile. The first of these came at Chester where he's won by 3.75L's from the widest draw of 11 and earned the comments;

"effort over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on well to draw clear soon after"

and

"BEAUMONT´S PARTY was never far away from the speed and he forged clear in the final furlong despite tackling this trip for the first time. The winner proved different gear to his rivals in the final furlong, suggesting he´d improved for the stiffer stamina test, and he is unexposed over this trip".

3 days later he repeated the dose at Chepstow

"Took keen hold early but always going well, led on bit inside final 3f, in no danger final 2f, very easily". and "BEAUMONT'S PARTY took his form to a new level when surging clear from a wide draw in a Chester handicap on Saturday on his third run back for a new yard. He had strong claims under a penalty and cruised to the front before striding clear without being asked any sort of question. Things will get tougher when the handicapper reacts, but he is still unexposed at this trip and there could be quite a bit more to come from this highly progressive gelded son of High Chaparral. His next target could be a 1m2f handicap at Epsom at the end of next week".

Well the handicapper has reacted, but the ease with which he's been accounting for these two wins does make you think he isn't finished just yet.

Right Step looks to be a credible danger, and if the price permits, it might be worth showing some e/w respect for Resurges course form

5.25

A three year old 7F handicap, which true to form features 70% of winners with a 'D' and 90% failing to win in their 2yo career before September (potentially keeping a bit from the handicapper). In fact 80% had a downhill placed effort, which when you throw these together leaves you just two left standing;

Hugely Exciting and Fityaan

Hugely Exciting is difficult to get a handle on with so much of his form being at Cagnes Sur Mer. There are some lines through a listed race that stand up to scrutiny and resolve to the Pouliches 7th Mixed Intention, and he's worth keeping an eye on if allowed to go off at a big price.

Personally I prefer the Hills horse which looks plotted. He made his debut in a conditions race against more experienced 2yo's. He is noted in the RP as having Gimcrack and 1000 guineas entries (the latter being an interesting idea for a colt) so his 7L defeat in 4th to Causal Glimpse is hardly a disgrace. Casual Glimpse has since come 4th in the Craven and 6th in the German Guineas. Lord of the Stars came 7th in the Molcombe, and Roayh came 3rd in the Coventry and Richmond and 4th in the Solaro

His second run was an open goal and he should have scored odds on. He seems to have become distracted by a filly though and was carried wide before stalking her all the way up the straight at Lingfield into second.

His final run to earn his mark came at Pontefract where he didn't exactly distinguish himself but perhaps tellingly earned the observation;

"Fityaan was disappointing, although he wasn´t knocked about on this third run, and handicaps might offer more opportunities for him"

Sure enough, with a mark off 78 secured he was stepped up to 7F's and got on the score sheet at the first time of asking at Warwick where he's beaten Upper Cut by half a length with 6L's back to third.

He doesn't seem to have been too troubled either

"Always prominent, tracked leader over 5f out, shaken up to lead over 1f out, comfortably" and "FITYAAN, rated 78 after three starts on fast ground and Polytrack as a juvenile, had been gelded since. He was always close up and got the better of his market rival entering the last furlong. He won more cosily than the margin suggests, but will not find it easy off similar marks in handicaps."

Having had his penchant for refusing to pass fillies seemingly nipped, a rise of just 2Ibs for this win at Warwick looks very sympathetic to me. Just add a bit of confirmation, Upper Cut has run since where he's come 2nd at Leicester to a useful Michael Stoute horse who had caught the eye as a 2yo in a Newmarket maiden that has been working out well (Chilled). Chilled's 2L victory of Upper Cut was never in doubt but he was at least pushed out.

Fityaan looks to me as if he could have about 15Ibs up his sleeve, all that remains now is to discover that I've picked out a whole load favs at unbackabley short prices !!!

[Norton]

Your prophecy of your selections being favourites looks likely to be accurate. Will this make you avoid getting involved financially? An 11/4f winner still keeps the bank manager happy

I've went for Tartan Gigha, Right Step and Hugely Exciting in the 3 handicaps.

[Spook]

Originally Posted by Norton

Your prophecy of your selections being favourites looks likely to be accurate. Will this make you avoid getting involved financially?

Good question. Don't know.

I should still have my notes somewhere, which means i might start to scratch round for e/w value alternatives, but if I'm not satisfied by these and feel that I'm trying to force the issue a bit I'll sit it out.

An alternative strategy might involve reducing the stake by way of risk to reward management and trying to buy a bit of money to have a flail at something else when opportunity arises

The final approach I might consider is forecasts. I couldn't really entertain multiples as I think they're much harder to win than forecasts

The reality is that I'm probably going to sit it out, but would regard Fityaan as the most likely of the three (not that this means anything) I did something similar last year on this card and backed the losers and discarded the winners based on which I thought the more likely were. In reality they probably all have similar chances.

I should say perhaps that its quite unusual to pick on 3 handicaps and find the favourites in each one in the absence of a book. I'm normally a bit more lucky than that

In truth, I think the Oaks is the hardest race to solve tomorrow

[The Duke]

2:10 - Dance And Dance / Kajima
3:25 - License To Till / Tres Coronas
5:25 - Cloud Rock

[andthereoff]

1st Dance And Dance
2nd Benandonner
3rd Wannabe King
4th Kajima


1st Right Step
2nd Prompter
3rd Licence To Till
4th Resurge


1st Fityaan
2nd Cloud Rock
3rd Hugely Exciting
4th Julius Geazer

[Spook]

Originally Posted by Spook

2.10 His is the strongest form in the book and must surely start favourite I'd have said. However, this is a 17 runner field, and true to the bad luck he seems to have been cursed with, he's drawn 17!!! Now the run at the Curragh where he's shifted 5 horses inside the final furlong offers hope that if he can be waited with, then he'll possess the turn of foot from what I think could be a favourable mark to account for these, but if there is a flyer in the ointment, it could have flown. Dance and Dance drawn in 5 looks the most likely I think, and at this stage I wouldn't be averse to taking 20% of my stake into a forecast with Start Right. Perhaps I could do with a better handle on the 8.5F draw bias at Epsom, as I'm using this as my principal weapon against Start Right (Probably find they're first and second favs now!!!)

Pretty well what happened. Start Right found he had too much to do having got checked about 2.5F's. Dance and Dance did indeed turn out to be the flyer, and that York race might be worth taking a look at a bit closer. It was run in a very fast time, and I suspect it will source a few winners for us.

Start Right will surely be winning soon and looks another one to be on the right side of for mile handicaps. Hunt Cup? He's shifted close to about a dozen horses in the final 300yds I reckon

[Spook]

Originally Posted by Spook

3.25 Well the handicapper has reacted, but the ease with which he's been accounting for these two wins does make you think he isn't finished just yet. Right Step looks to be a credible danger, and if the price permits, it might be worth showing some e/w respect for Resurges course form

And in the finest traditions of all good reversed tricasts, the selected perms finish 1st 2nd and 4th

[CPGagie]

I backed Dance And Dance last night at 8's EW. That was it for me today. Thats been it for me all week apart from DIALOGUE the other day, took 5's and 9/2, smahed into 6/4 FAV, then gets a *****ed foot and didnt run.

I almost posted this morning after reading your post Spook, but stayed with the 'dont post and they win' theory, and it worked out beautifully.

Looking through its form, I decided it would probably handle the course, good Jock booked, nice draw, and I had it 7lbs well in. So figured an EW bet was in order. I'm not a fan of Epsom, but felt I needed to make an exception here.

EW wimping, but a nice return.

Havent looked at tomorrows decs properly yet, but will after time tomorrow if anything significant happens.

[CPGagie]

P ricked foot, what wrong with that?