Friday's Bets

[alanb1979]

I was going to call the thread Blissy's Bismark, but anyhow.

Had a nag me email for Mac Federal in the 13:55 Lingfield tomorrow. Very poor at Taunton on return but has better form here, so I'm on again. Taken the 8/1 with B365

[The Duke]

Has been really strongly punted overnight prior to being taken out at Kempton, and was then well backed again ahead of that Taunton run, clearly they thought it was capable of doing better.

Best of luck Alan. Although Blissys Bismark does have a kind of ring to it.

[Lars]

Selling Handicaps aren’t my usual betting sphere, and backing horses who are 0/12 isn’t always the soundest advice, but OLIMAMU (13:55) might be worth a bet now dropped to a basement mark of 45, especially as I think she’ll stay this two mile trip and will be fully wound up after two sub-standard runs. She was fairly consistent during the summer of 2011, effectively her first year of racing for the 5 year old. She placed in a 10f Lingfield handicap off a mark of 52, shaping as she needed further, and a couple of her efforts at 12f beforehand also suggested that a step up in trip might not be a bad shout, as she usually plugged on at the one pace in the closing stages (see run at Brighton on the 12 July). She was given a break after a relatively poor effort in September, and her two runs subsequently have been pretty poor. Firstly, a 10f race where she was entitled to need the effort and the benefit of the doubt can be given. Her last start returned similar form figures but this time over 12f, when beaten 16 lengths. However, for a start, she might still have needed the outing and she did excuses during the race, namely she was sent wide, held-up off a slow pace in a race with only the runner-up getting involved from towards the rear of the field (that horse won easily next time out).

Although encountering this 2 mile trip today for the first time, I’ve enough confidence to suggest she’ll stay it (not bred to, but has shaped that way on occasions) and she should be fully wound up now at least. Maybe she’s just regressed horrifically but her form during 2011 generally wasn’t bad at all and would give her an obvious shout today. She has in fact only run one bad race here at Lingfield, on the aforementioned reappearance effort and she seems to like this venue, which is an obvious positive. The Lydia Pearce stable are also in very good form at present, with figures of 321 in the past two weeks. This is a weak race and it won’t take a great deal of winning, and I just think that at these prices, this mare is worth chancing, especially as she’s unexposed at this trip, one that I think could improve her and for a yard in-form, she’s worth a small/medium sized investment.

13:55 Lingfield – Olimamu; 2pts @ 14/1 Betfred (bog)