Friday Bets - OHR

**alanb1979** · **19-01-12**, **05:09 PM**

One race two bets, Catterick 15:15 Samson Collonges 7/ & Ifonlyalfie 14/1 Trainer says possible podium finish for the latter, and the 14's is best on offer at the mo by a few points.

Best of luck the rest of you

**Lars** · **19-01-12**, **06:30 PM**

Pretty pissed off that I've missed the 7/1 on Samson. Not sure if the 9/2 is quite worth it, probably will leave it as don't want to rush a bet on it, and no doubt it'll be 7/2 by 10pm..

Good luck though.

**Lars** · **19-01-12**, **11:56 PM**

Leaving Samson, as the 9/2 is probably about right and don't like taking that sort of price on one of Ferdy's. Best of luck, mind!
--

The return to a Class 6 and more positive tactics will likely bring about an improved performance about STRONG VIGILANCE (15:40) and it’s worth chancing they’ll sit him more prominent today, after some poor showings when held-up. He’s been given a chance by the handicapper now and could well strike at some point this winter off this kind of rating. He looked quite talented, if not quirky with his runs on turf in 2010, but seemed fond of the all-weather early last year, scoring twice from the front in two small-field events. They were off ratings of 64 and 72 so his current mark of 63 makes him look quite well-handicapped. It’s fair to say since those two victories he has done very little, but has seemingly been held-up by design on most occasions, and for a horse that doesn’t have the greatest turn of foot, it definitely isn’t ideal and he does seem happiest from the front.

Although this is hardly a small-field contest and he isn’t perfectly drawn in stall 9, if they wanted to sit towards the front of affairs, it’s entirely possible they can as there no real confirmed front-runner in attendance and I don’t see there being a fierce early pace. With the booking of the talented Raul Da Silva taking the eye, along with his 5lb claim making this one look further well-handicapped, he could well run a race much better than his odds of 20/1 suggest. It wouldn’t be the first time a horse has dropped to this grade and found improvement and with front running tactics not out of the question back in this sphere, he will almost certainly run well if they are. That’s a big “if”, but it’s worth a small investment if it is the case, especially as I doubt connections would have persisted with this one unless they still thought he had a race in him. Back from a short break he could go well and fitness will not likely be an issue, as they’ve seemingly got plenty of work into him (according to Michael Bell’s website) and I’d be hopeful of a decent showing.

In the closing race of the day at Lingfield, the Ron Harris trained ALHABAN (16:10) is officially 4lbs in front of the handicapper, as he’s due to go up in the weights tomorrow but I feel he’s value for a bit more improvement than that back in a handicap at this mile trip and he looks very decent value currently. A useful juvenile, rated 107 at his peak, he’s struggled in no uncertain terms since and has fallen to a mark of 61. That being said, he’s shown a fair bit more promise over the past few months, being unlucky to run into an impressive winner in Saharia back in October in selling company over a little further than this. He then ran a poor race back in a handicap but that can obviously be excused, as he didn’t stay the 1m4f trip he was asked to compete over. After a poor effort in a visor, he made amends by running a fine race a week ago over 7f here, giving Hinton Admiral (rated 18lbs superior) something to think about in the closing stages, finishing only ½ length behind. Although those figures cannot be taken too literally, it showed that he was still capable of a decent effort, that his current handicap mark was on the lenient side and that 7f was just a little bit too sharp for him

The step up in trip to a mile today is of course a big positive, as has recently looked like his best trip. He isn’t the most consistent, which is a worry but today is likely the best time to catch this animal, especially as they’ll be very little leeway ratings wise if contesting a handicap under his new rating. With Luke Morris back on board, a dab hand around these tracks, then he should definitely run a big race off a rating of 61, especially as I think he could be up to running to a level about 10lbs higher than that over a mile trip. This isn’t a bad race, with Shared Moment an emphatic winner last time, but she might just be held off her new mark, whilst Storm Runner is the most likely winner, his price reflects that and he’s worth opposing. Sottovoce would be interesting if the money came for her, whilst I think Arkaim may need a little further on polytrack. The rest look inconsistent/held off their current marks and there’s definitely some value in the 6/1 about Alhaban, as I have him around a 7/2 chance in this field. Hopefully this run doesn’t come too soon and if it does, the distress signals will be apparent a fair out but if he’s fine from last week’s exertions, he has a very decent chance today.

Bets
15:40 Lingfield – Strong Vigilance; 1pt @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (bog)
16:10 Lingfield – Alhaban; 3pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor (bog)

**Weekender** · **20-01-12**, **10:42 AM**

Good Luck

PLACE bets at Betfair Sp [Lingfield]

12.50-Place That Face
1.25-Drawnfromthepast
2.30-Irons On Fire
3.05-Junoob
3.40-Trip Switch
4.10-Storm Runner

**fenton030842** · **20-01-12**, **02:47 PM**

Well someone made a ricket there with STRONG VIGILANCE traded down to 1.04 in running and not looking like to take part in the finish, suspect someone misread the colours .

**Lars** · **20-01-12**, **02:49 PM**

Strong Vigilance backed from 20's into 9/2, and I got the change in tactics absolutely right. What I didn't get right was that there were plenty who were prepared to be up with the pace, and he couldn't lead. He probably sulked a bit but they went far too quick anyway and never stood a chance keeping up with it in the closing stages. I'll be on again in a small-field race if the price makes it worth it.

He also traded at 1.04, which I cannot even begin to fathom. Didn't seem to be a mistake either, foolishly didn't trade out myself though.

Albahan has been well-punted too, but can sort of sense a poor run now after ^ that

**broadsword** · **20-01-12**, **03:22 PM**

No such worries mate does the business cosily

Another 3pt'er Good lad

**Lars** · **20-01-12**, **03:22 PM**

Looked in trouble turning for home but did it quite well in the end, went off 11/4. Today was probably the day and might struggle off a revised mark.

**Weekender** · **21-01-12**, **11:47 AM**

Originally Posted by Weekender

Good Luck

PLACE bets at Betfair Sp [Lingfield]

12.50-Place That Face @ 1.64
1.25-Drawnfromthepast @ 1.37 [Won @ 2.88]
2.30-Irons On Fire
3.05-Junoob @ 1.16 [Won @ 1.3]
3.40-Trip Switch @ 1.64 [Won @ 3.5]
4.10-Storm Runner

Another place would have made my day

19-01-12, 05:09 PM	#1 (permalink)
alanb1979 Group 3 Level Join Date: Mar 2007 Twitter: @blissysmiles Location: Warwickshire	Friday Bets One race two bets, Catterick 15:15 Samson Collonges 7/ & Ifonlyalfie 14/1 Trainer says possible podium finish for the latter, and the 14's is best on offer at the mo by a few points. Best of luck the rest of you

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19-01-12, 06:30 PM	#2 (permalink)
Lars Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Dec 2010 Twitter: joshfletch Location: London/York	Pretty pissed off that I've missed the 7/1 on Samson. Not sure if the 9/2 is quite worth it, probably will leave it as don't want to rush a bet on it, and no doubt it'll be 7/2 by 10pm.. Good luck though.

19-01-12, 11:56 PM	#3 (permalink)
Lars Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Dec 2010 Twitter: joshfletch Location: London/York	Leaving Samson, as the 9/2 is probably about right and don't like taking that sort of price on one of Ferdy's. Best of luck, mind! -- The return to a Class 6 and more positive tactics will likely bring about an improved performance about STRONG VIGILANCE (15:40) and it’s worth chancing they’ll sit him more prominent today, after some poor showings when held-up. He’s been given a chance by the handicapper now and could well strike at some point this winter off this kind of rating. He looked quite talented, if not quirky with his runs on turf in 2010, but seemed fond of the all-weather early last year, scoring twice from the front in two small-field events. They were off ratings of 64 and 72 so his current mark of 63 makes him look quite well-handicapped. It’s fair to say since those two victories he has done very little, but has seemingly been held-up by design on most occasions, and for a horse that doesn’t have the greatest turn of foot, it definitely isn’t ideal and he does seem happiest from the front. Although this is hardly a small-field contest and he isn’t perfectly drawn in stall 9, if they wanted to sit towards the front of affairs, it’s entirely possible they can as there no real confirmed front-runner in attendance and I don’t see there being a fierce early pace. With the booking of the talented Raul Da Silva taking the eye, along with his 5lb claim making this one look further well-handicapped, he could well run a race much better than his odds of 20/1 suggest. It wouldn’t be the first time a horse has dropped to this grade and found improvement and with front running tactics not out of the question back in this sphere, he will almost certainly run well if they are. That’s a big “if”, but it’s worth a small investment if it is the case, especially as I doubt connections would have persisted with this one unless they still thought he had a race in him. Back from a short break he could go well and fitness will not likely be an issue, as they’ve seemingly got plenty of work into him (according to Michael Bell’s website) and I’d be hopeful of a decent showing. In the closing race of the day at Lingfield, the Ron Harris trained ALHABAN (16:10) is officially 4lbs in front of the handicapper, as he’s due to go up in the weights tomorrow but I feel he’s value for a bit more improvement than that back in a handicap at this mile trip and he looks very decent value currently. A useful juvenile, rated 107 at his peak, he’s struggled in no uncertain terms since and has fallen to a mark of 61. That being said, he’s shown a fair bit more promise over the past few months, being unlucky to run into an impressive winner in Saharia back in October in selling company over a little further than this. He then ran a poor race back in a handicap but that can obviously be excused, as he didn’t stay the 1m4f trip he was asked to compete over. After a poor effort in a visor, he made amends by running a fine race a week ago over 7f here, giving Hinton Admiral (rated 18lbs superior) something to think about in the closing stages, finishing only ½ length behind. Although those figures cannot be taken too literally, it showed that he was still capable of a decent effort, that his current handicap mark was on the lenient side and that 7f was just a little bit too sharp for him The step up in trip to a mile today is of course a big positive, as has recently looked like his best trip. He isn’t the most consistent, which is a worry but today is likely the best time to catch this animal, especially as they’ll be very little leeway ratings wise if contesting a handicap under his new rating. With Luke Morris back on board, a dab hand around these tracks, then he should definitely run a big race off a rating of 61, especially as I think he could be up to running to a level about 10lbs higher than that over a mile trip. This isn’t a bad race, with Shared Moment an emphatic winner last time, but she might just be held off her new mark, whilst Storm Runner is the most likely winner, his price reflects that and he’s worth opposing. Sottovoce would be interesting if the money came for her, whilst I think Arkaim may need a little further on polytrack. The rest look inconsistent/held off their current marks and there’s definitely some value in the 6/1 about Alhaban, as I have him around a 7/2 chance in this field. Hopefully this run doesn’t come too soon and if it does, the distress signals will be apparent a fair out but if he’s fine from last week’s exertions, he has a very decent chance today. Bets 15:40 Lingfield – Strong Vigilance; 1pt @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 16:10 Lingfield – Alhaban; 3pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor (bog)

20-01-12, 10:42 AM	#4 (permalink)
Weekender World Class Join Date: Mar 2005	Good Luck PLACE bets at Betfair Sp [Lingfield] 12.50-Place That Face 1.25-Drawnfromthepast 2.30-Irons On Fire 3.05-Junoob 3.40-Trip Switch 4.10-Storm Runner

20-01-12, 02:47 PM	#5 (permalink)
fenton030842 Selling Plater Join Date: Dec 2010	Well someone made a ricket there with STRONG VIGILANCE traded down to 1.04 in running and not looking like to take part in the finish, suspect someone misread the colours .

20-01-12, 02:49 PM	#6 (permalink)
Lars Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Dec 2010 Twitter: joshfletch Location: London/York	Strong Vigilance backed from 20's into 9/2, and I got the change in tactics absolutely right. What I didn't get right was that there were plenty who were prepared to be up with the pace, and he couldn't lead. He probably sulked a bit but they went far too quick anyway and never stood a chance keeping up with it in the closing stages. I'll be on again in a small-field race if the price makes it worth it. He also traded at 1.04, which I cannot even begin to fathom. Didn't seem to be a mistake either, foolishly didn't trade out myself though. Albahan has been well-punted too, but can sort of sense a poor run now after ^ that

20-01-12, 03:22 PM	#7 (permalink)
broadsword GA's most wanted Join Date: Feb 2009	No such worries mate does the business cosily Another 3pt'er Good lad

20-01-12, 03:22 PM	#8 (permalink)
Lars Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Dec 2010 Twitter: joshfletch Location: London/York	Looked in trouble turning for home but did it quite well in the end, went off 11/4. Today was probably the day and might struggle off a revised mark.

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