Form views

[almost]

I started my "Almost there" thread as a platform for encouraging an exchange of views about how we attempt to find our bets.However with hindsight i can see that it may prove to be an inglorious muddle, so thought i would try a separate thread.

I will try and kick start by waffling about filters.I think one of the biggest edges a backer can have is to keep accurate long term records not only for profit/loss but also to help indicate where you may be going wrong or can improve.

I have never been a fan of back fitting but realistic use can be made of your own results providing an explanation can be found to justify ?.

I had five years AW results and although profitable the roi was below my turf profits.A detailed look indicated that i would be A/ better off swerving the 3yo hcaps and B/ Only backing horses whose rating could be taken from the same course.

Neither of the above effected my turf results so was there an AW racing reason ?.With A/ The period Jan - Mar many 3yos are still developing and may not as yet have the strenght and experiance to take on hcap company.Oct-Dec could it be for many coming off turf it takes time to adjust to AW surfaces ?.

With B/ i think its less to do with track confirmation more so a preference for the different surface types.

I do not know if any of this is correct but did implement and have found (so far )that it works for me.

PS An additional finding was that my wagers at < 13fur proved far more profitable than the longer distance ones ,once again the same does not impact on my turf results and frankly i have no idea why this should be ?.

[broadsword]

I'm not the best person to comment on these things as I don't really do my own ratings,I don't punt on the AW anymore if I can help it,I'm generally the worst flat punter ever,my record keeping limits itself to checking the ins and outs of my betting accounts every month and the most important factor I've found is the way I'm backing rather than what I'm backing causing my problems.

I thought though these sorts of posts always dignify a response and for what its worth your points seem to make a lot of sense and your questions are certainly worth asking its just a shame I don't have the answers

[CPGagie]

Decided not to comment.

[CPGagie]

Anyway, why not.

On turf you'll have a better quality of Jockey on the average, better judges of pace, which is more important in longer trips. Just an average of course, but the averages stack up over time. Also you'll see a class difference I bet in your 1M3F+ results between turf and AW.

What happens when you toss out all 5F races?

[almost]

Originally Posted by CPGagie

Anyway, why not. On turf you'll have a better quality of Jockey on the average, better judges of pace, which is more important in longer trips. Just an average of course, but the averages stack up over time. Also you'll see a class difference I bet in your 1M3F+ results between turf and AW. What happens when you toss out all 5F races?

Hi CP interesting points,i dont feel its down to jockeyship as conversely it could be argued that some ride the AW better than turf ?.Your point about lower class less reliable horses could well be relevant in fact another filter i use which i did not mention is to now swerve all the class 6 & 7 AW hcaps.

My profits from 5f races show no variance against the longer distances.

[The Duke]

An interesting thread which I haven't really got round to looking at until now and to be quite honest I'm not really in the right frame of mind at present to give it answer I want to - just can't seem to get my words down at the moment, yet when I'm writing about a race I don't seem to struggle in the slightest? Rather strange goings on.

I am still in the process of finding my way despite betting for years now, I am approaching my third season of punting full time (well pretty much). My first year was a rousing success and I ended up clearly a really good profit for my current living circumstances but found myself filtering bits away on luckless all-weather bets, with the frost and cold weather turning results upside down.

By the time the flat season come at the start of 2011, I was already beaten. I had taken a pasting throughout the winter all-weather season, and with my energies and willpower broken and my standards not up to date and more importantly than all, I simply wasn't prepared in the slightest. This proved a costly error of judgement and I took an absolute beating in the first half of the flat season, to the point where I'd pretty much given up by the end of July (despite getting Pour Moi at 20s for the Derby).

I've found that my biggest edge lies in three-year-old handicaps on the main tracks down south. I show a massive ROI in these races at courses like Newmarket, Sandown, Newbury, Newmarket July and a couple of others that fail to trigger the memory. I also seem to do really well in sprints, although I have pretty much a lousy record in the very top tier of racing (group races) and seem to back more losers in this grade than possibly anyone on here, for reasons I am yet to fathom.

This year after once again trying to persue the all-weather and national hunt sphere I decided that after initially starting off incredibly well, and after the pasting that ensued in January that it really wasn't worth my time and effort going through it all again - so my decision has come to stop betting on pretty much everything now until the turf season begins (occassional Dubai bets aside).

I have spent the last couple of weeks getting updated with my ratings, rectifying my errant standard times for certain tracks, and noticing certain patterns developing. I have also taken to watching race replays of races from the backend of last season and I am confident that this year I am going to have my best year on record.

It wouldn't be mad to hope for some good fortune would it?

[almost]

Originally Posted by The Duke

It wouldn't be mad to hope for some good fortune would it?

Not mad at all Duke Interesting that our circumstances are not dissimilar as this is my third year as a full timer and i am well able to empathise with your above.

In 2010 i lived and slept the job and enjoyed my best ever year.I felt i had found the final part of the equation IE constant hard work = greater profit.Unfortunately this did not prove the case last year as by the end of June i was showing a LSL of 23pts which to the stakes i use equalled a significant sum.

Detailed record keeping of every bet was the main contributor to enabling me to turn things round and end the year in profit.When you attempt to specialise in a race type (for myself its hcaps)there does appear to be areas within areas which are positive/negative to profits.As per my first post this thread

Auditing can indicate same and help prouduce a return of profit and that all important "juice factor".So chin up mate lets stick it to them