The Fighting Fifth - OHR

**Spook** · **23-11-11**, **09:56 PM**

Named after the fifth battalion of the Northumberland Fusiliers who acquired the name in the Peninsular wars apparently (that's my Derek Thompson impersonation over). The Farting Farce sees the reappearance of Binocular who is trying to complete a hat trick of odds on defeats in this race. As I was lamenting earlier, those horses with genuine Festival aspirations are increasingly making poor starts to the season for reasons well documented. As if to illustrate I've taken randomish list from last years festival of 'top performers' and supplemented it with a few who might have had aspirations to see what they've done in the first race (24 in total)

Winners - Big Zeb, So Young, Somersby, Medermit, Thousand Stars, Overturn, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant, Grand Crus (I didn't include Kauto as I think there were grounds to believe he was trained for the day at Haydock)

Losers - What A Friend, Masterminded, Cue card, Long Run, Sizing Europe, Midnight Chase, Captain Chris, Oscars Well, Bostons Angel, Megastar, Oscar Whisky, Time for Rupert, Ghizao, and Menorah

So where is Binocular? I've got no idea. I suspect given the torrid time he endured last season that there's a chance Nicky will want to know sooner rather than later just what sort of a horse he's now got. He put in a couple for sluggish runs at Aintree and Punchestown and given that he's got previous here I do wonder if we might see something similar. He comes up against a few race fit, and capable rivals here too.

The Weekender has 4 horses listed as 'leaders' (Celestial Halo, Kosta Brava, Overturn and Binocular - not so sure about the last named myself) which in a field of this size is a recipe for what Mordin calls 'pace collapse'. That is to say they all take each other on for a lead and cut their throats allowing something held up to come through. For this to happen though, we need a few things to prevail (it isn't that straight forward).

In the first case we need the leaders to empty and essentially not be 'good enough' to see a strong pace out. The second thing is that we need horses and jockeys to consent to a duel. Other things can also help bring them back in the final quarter of mile and that includes heavy ground and an uphill finish as this exaggerates a 'stopping horse' quite markedly (and that's before we take the view that there's a held up closer good enough to get back to them).

The held up closer in this case is the 4yo Brampour, though I do want to reserve a mention for the 66/1 rag at this stage. Stormy Weather is an ex Howard Johnson inmate now with Brian Ellison. He's rated a mouth watering 113

He was with Wylie until until 9 November though and hasn't been felt worthy of going south to Ditcheat. I'm a bit puzzled and inquisitive here, as I'm sure there's going to be a few ex Johnson horses well handicapped when in more capable hands that spring surprises throughout this season. I'd be interested to know how long he's been with Ellison? Is the transfer date an administration thing? I'm also struggling to think what he's doing running in this. Ellison ain't stupid, he knows that a close proximity finish could cost him quite a few pounds in the handicap, but by the same token he must know he's got no chance and that he's simply wasting bullet without getting any prize money. It's tempting to suggest his new owners are locals wanting a day out? When you dig into his form a bit though, there's bits and pieces which if it were to come up heavy might give him a squeak at getting closer to a place than his price and O/R suggest (unfortunately heavy ground doesn't look to be on the cards, but keep an eye out for rain anyway)

He's raced three times on heavy (twice on the flat). The first of these involved being beaten a neck as a 2yo in a listed race at St Cloud by Entre Deux Eaux (St Cloud does ride heavy in November). Entre Deux Eaux came 2nd in the following years Prix Imprudence finishing 2L behind Elusive Wave, and followed up a few weeks later when finishing 6th and 4.5L's behind the same horse in the French thousand Guineas. His second run in heavy ground saw him come 3rd at Haydock over 12F's just 4L's behind Opinion Poll with Distant Memories splitting them. And finally he beat Bocamix 2.25L's in hurdles race at Newcastle over C&D. He actually earned a flat rating of 98 which is pretty useful and not too far removed from Celestial Halo's 100 earned in the St Leger. He came fifth in the Fred Winter before Howard really got stuck into him and ran up a sequence of 7, F, 9, 6, which clearly accounts for his useless rating.

I kind of harbour a suspicion that with some sensible treatment he could be off a useful mark and if he got heavy ground and was prepared to flog himself (something a few others might be reluctant to do) he's got the potential to be whole lot nearer than his 113 suggests.

So what of the others?

Binocular I think is unbackable at odds on for a horse that throws in the odd clunker. If he downs tools there has to be chance he won't even place. I can't imagine Celestial Halo will be looking to do Binocular any favours and expect him to try and force a strong pace and test the 2010 champion. He himself was in the process of being gubbed I felt at Wincanton though and was well beaten when inheriting on Grandouet's demise. Grandouet beat Brampour by 6L's in the Triumph and although I wouldn't like to say how much Grandouet would have beaten Celestial by at the Somerset track, I don't think it was far off that. On that logic Brampour might have the beating of Celestial Halo, but there is an issue of level weights versus a 10Ib concession to consider. OK since the Triumph he's twice gone in this term with strong finishes and seemingly show the benefits of a breathing op. I'm not convinced the Greatwood is up to much and he won't get a 7Ib claim under these conditions either. The jockey bookings also suggest that its Celestial that's preferred too. I'm also persuaded that the record of the age group 0-0-5 is dead against here, and if Katchit couldn't do it then there's no real reason to think a Triumph 9th should succeed in a task that a Triumph winner couldn't. The only way I see Brampour getting involved is through a dramatic pace collapse, but I still think he could be right on Celestial Halo and wouldn't be shocked to see him beat his stablemate (wonder what he'd be in a match bet?).

With the ground set as it is I'm probably preferring Overturn. There is a few that he would have lost to Oscar Whisky last week, and also that he's had a hard race. I'm inclined to take Donald McCain at his word in the Weekender though (never regarded McCain is a hype or stick punters away type of trainer)

"Jason (Maguire) felt it was far from over as our fellow had more left in the tank. He seems none the worse for his efforts and if the ground doesn't go against him he'll go for the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle"

**Spook** · **23-11-11**, **11:44 PM**

Actually this is no bet race (not sure what I'm thinking)

Try the Rehearsal Chase instead.

I realise that in jump racing you have to be more patient and try and accumulate shorter prices more so than you would on the flat where there's more latitude in trying to find the double figured winner, but there must be better 7/2 shots flying around on Saturday

**Spook** · **25-11-11**, **12:10 PM**

Well the Rehearsal Chase has gone to hell on a handcart too. I drew up a long-list of 6 earlier in the week and then thought I'd wait to see how many stood their ground (2 or 3 I thought). No. All bloody 6 of them, whilst everything else entered seems to have dropped out (including some who I was hoping would set the market up for me) leaving me with 6 options in a field of 8.

I've kind of omitted Hey Big Spender as I don't believe he's in the same class as the likes of Neptunes Collonges, Seemorebusiness, or One Knight, who are the others who gave significant weight away. Ashfield Dream won LTO which has been more of millstone than an endorsement for this race, and Minella Theatre is having his first run of the season which also weighs heavily against.

Interestingly, Garleton is one of 3 qualifiers from a system that Nick Mordin was featuring this week (might go back and re-read it) as I need to decide if there's anything in it, or whether Nick's just padding out copy. I was leaning towards Categorical on Wednesday though

**Spook** · **25-11-11**, **08:08 PM**

Return to the farting farce now as we have two developments that might be of significance. The first concerns the defection of Brampour with the number of places still unchanged. The second concerns a shifting in the ground to G/S on a course that isn't renowned as a 'drier'.

I'm increasingly thinking that Celestial Halo can inherit this all of a sudden, but I'm also a sucker for small fields in jump racing (where there's a fallers chance) and big priced outsiders sneaking something. Stormy Weathers record on heavy I've covered, as I have his flat form. If he's settled in well for a change of scenery and responds with a rejuvenated performance is it possible that he could inherit a place at 125/1? Right I won't labour that daft idea any more, and perhaps its better to back him place only for a bit less rather than burn 50% of your stake on an outcome that won't happen.

The key to the race will be a combination of Binocular's fitness and pace. The former we can't really know about other than he's twice disappointed now in this race. My suspicion is that Nicky will have him further forward than the last two renewals though, so we're kind of relying him to throw his toys out a bit and put in a lacklustre effort.

The pace angle I think is more interesting and we have to go back to Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle to see what might happen. Overturn led them out at a fair pace with Celestial Halo tracking on G/S. Overturn ultimately proved the first to fold and went down by 47L's when coming in last of 5. Celestial Halo by contrast would have won had he not messed up the last flight. He duly rallied giving 4Ibs to Milie Chief, but ultimately was touched off by a nose in the end. On this evidence at least, a small field fast pace involving the two on G/S hands a clear verdict to the Nicholls runner. At 47L's Overturn won't place, and if beaten badly in all probability won't be 'got at' as preservation for another day is more important than the prize money

If Celestial Halo is one nil up against Overturn in head to heads, he's four one down against Binocular though, and even that victory was by a head.

Binocular has beaten Celestial Halo by 7L's, 4.5L's, 12L's and 12.75L's. He's lost the last two Fighting Fifths by 7L's and 7.25L's. On their most recent runnings it would suggest even a Binocular who isn't fit would win this by about 5L's. Urm....... there's no evidence to support my hunch really

Perhaps I'm better off trying to get any 2 of the 3 beaten by a degree of distance, and whereas the possibility that Overturn and Celestial Halo might cut each others throats, all things being equal, it's unlikely that both will go out like a light allowing the outside to trundle home in second. I need a faller or for something to go wrong with Binocular who has had a history of injuries

To be honest, the more likely candidate to flop is Celestial Halo off a break of just 21 days. His record being returned quickly isn't great.

On the flat it reads 6, 3, 2 but we need to look at it hurdling to get a better a picture, and quite probably need to look closer at defeated distances too.

2nd - by 7L's Aintree
11th - by 40L's Aintree
Fell - at Aintree but was travelling well at the time
3rd - 6.25L's Relkeel behind Karabak and Any Given Day
3rd - 13L's behind Oscar Whisky
1st - beat Trenchant at Fontwell by 6L's

I need the ground to go softer really to bring the rag into play, and probably need a slow pace which has caught Binocular out when Go Native blasted home to bring the rags potential from the flat into the equation as well. It ain't gonna happen. It's conceivable I might get the first (though unlikely) but I can't see how I'll get the second. I'm betting on Overturn to blow up, and one of the other two to fall

**Spook** · **25-11-11**, **11:51 PM**

Back to the Rehearsal Chase, which once upon time used to be a genuine rehearsal (and quite a reliable one at that). Only Hey Big Spender holds an entry for Chepstow today though and off a mark of 150 I really can't see what incentive he has to win this, yet alone be primed for the day?

I'm increasingly thinking that with a 40 knot wind blowing this could be carnage and would make sense to try and side with safe jumpers (which brings me on to the Mordin system) which is based on runners who earn the form book comment "jumped well". Surprisingly few do. Garleton earned it in a 10 runner field which Mordin suggests accounts for 0.43% of runners. He is a bit one paced and its possible that a strong wind could blunt faster horses as it looks like it will be a head-wind in the all important finishing straight. There's 4 fences in the home straight including an open ditch first up. Jumping might just be the key at the business end as there's a fair chance they'll all be finishing at similar speeds. The testing jumps will probably jump from a cross-wind though which will only really effect the one fence down the side.

Hey Big Spender has fallen twice and unseated once in 14 chase starts. Garleton's only calamity came in the Topham otherwise he's completed all 25 chases he's contested since being pulled up in his very first. Categorical is another one with a pretty unblemished record too (1 PU in 29 chases) and has a course record of 1, 2, 1.

I might lob them into a forecast. My own suspicion is something will prove to fast for Garleton but Newcastle is a stiff test and this might help limit his exposure to a faster finisher that you normally see on a tight track with a short home-straight

**Hexham VIP** · **26-11-11**, **06:33 PM**

I won tickets to Newcastle today and bit the bullet and went at the expense of football (good choice!)

No winners though, I bit my lip till the 1.10 when Allthekingshorses ran, this horse has been on my list since its last win when it beat an odds on Nicholls horse and Ken Pitterson in the weekender said it looked short of fitness, was really wooly in its coat but had a serious engine. It looked well today but ran a stinker. Not sure what the excuse was.
I am not an expert paddock judge but South Leinster didn’t look fit but ran on well at the end. I am trying to keep an eye out for these ex Howard Johnson/Wylie horses because they should be open to improvement( I don’t rate Howard Johnson)

I ended up disagreeing with myself in the Fighting Fifth because I ended up backing Binocular, I didn’t think it would win for the usual reasons but I thought the ground was a bit soft for Overturn and it might get tired after ending up in a speed duel with Celestial Halo. The 3 market leaders all looked fit to me.

My last bet was on Garleton in the Rehearsal and put it in a forecast with Hey Big Spender. Should of knew something was up when it drifted, Front runners had done well all day so thought it hang on even for second but I don’t think it was at the front at any time during the race and might as well of not turned up.

Biggest lesson learned is don’t ignore these drifts. Will go over the recordings tomorrow morning since MOTD is a turn off.

**Hexham VIP** · **26-11-11**, **06:53 PM**

Just read on the bha site allthekingshorses jockey reported a breathing problem

**Spook** · **26-11-11**, **07:06 PM**

Newcastle was a bit of a graveyard for me today (well alot of a graveyard actually) but the 113 rated dog otherwise known as Stormy Weather has run to about 131 through Overturn, and 136 through Binocular. Every day he spends out of Howards clutches should bring him on, and its difficult to think that the handicapper can really put him up 20Ibs on the back of this. There might be a tidy little handicap hurdle in him somewhere

**muddypaws** · **26-11-11**, **09:14 PM**

Originally Posted by Hexham VIP

I won tickets to Newcastle today and bit the bullet and went at the expense of football (good choice!)

No winners though, I bit my lip till the 1.10 when Allthekingshorses ran, this horse has been on my list since its last win when it beat an odds on Nicholls horse and Ken Pitterson in the weekender said it looked short of fitness, was really wooly in its coat but had a serious engine. It looked well today but ran a stinker. Not sure what the excuse was.
I am not an expert paddock judge but South Leinster didn’t look fit but ran on well at the end. I am trying to keep an eye out for these ex Howard Johnson/Wylie horses because they should be open to improvement( I don’t rate Howard Johnson)

I ended up disagreeing with myself in the Fighting Fifth because I ended up backing Binocular, I didn’t think it would win for the usual reasons but I thought the ground was a bit soft for Overturn and it might get tired after ending up in a speed duel with Celestial Halo. The 3 market leaders all looked fit to me.

My last bet was on Garleton in the Rehearsal and put it in a forecast with Hey Big Spender. Should of knew something was up when it drifted, Front runners had done well all day so thought it hang on even for second but I don’t think it was at the front at any time during the race and might as well of not turned up.

Biggest lesson learned is don’t ignore these drifts. Will go over the recordings tomorrow morning since MOTD is a turn off.

I wanted to go to the races but found I had to take my son to the game that you were so grateful to miss

SB - pack yer bags

**Hexham VIP** · **26-11-11**, **09:23 PM**

Originally Posted by muddypaws

I wanted to go to the races but found I had to take my son to the game that you were so grateful to miss

SB - pack yer bags

Ha spot on. Sick as a chip!

**Hexham VIP** · **26-11-11**, **09:25 PM**

Originally Posted by Spook

Newcastle was a bit of a graveyard for me today (well alot of a graveyard actually) but the 113 rated dog otherwise known as Stormy Weather has run to about 131 through Overturn, and 136 through Binocular. Every day he spends out of Howards clutches should bring him on, and its difficult to think that the handicapper can really put him up 20Ibs on the back of this. There might be a tidy little handicap hurdle in him somewhere

Is there anywhere on the net there is a list of those wylie horses that went to the sales? Could be a system somewhere........ I know John wade bought a few. Might did out some old Mark Howard books to see which ones were thought of highly

**Spook** · **26-11-11**, **10:51 PM**

The Nicholls ones are well documented, but I tend to agree that those who've gone to lesser trainers might be worth noting. I fear this could be a research assignment though ..... seek and ye shall find. Having said that, I'm not sure where you'd start? Weatherbys?

**Hexham VIP** · **27-11-11**, **10:09 AM**

cant find anything on the net, tried the sales websites as well and nothing.
Found an article though that states
"Tidal Bay,Tigre D'Aron, Zhakiera Spirit, Prospect Wells, Frankie Figg, Roger Beantown and Grandioso will join Quwetwo, Ascendant, Doeslessthanme, Double Expresso, Hold Fast and The Knoxs are at Ditcheat"

Willie Mullins has Back In Focus along with Boston Bob, Felix Yonger, On His Own, Prince De Beauchene, Drive Time and Rupert Lamb.

33 are going to the sales(i think John Wade bought 5) and 11 unraced horses are going to Ireland to run in point to points.

I will flick through a old horses in training book if i go in a bookshop they always have old copies of them.

**Hexham VIP** · **03-12-11**, **07:26 PM**

John Wade had a double today with Moon Indigo and Diamond Frontier both ex johnson horses. I havent give up on this yet think there could be some more to win.

**Hexham VIP** · **05-12-11**, **08:56 PM**

More work than i thought this,

Been through all the Howard Johnson horses in howards 2010/11 book and made a list of the horses he trained,
But the RP website still has Johnson as the trainer that means it is not up to date or they havent been sent to the sales yet. I dont understand why they wouldnt of went to the sales - is he keeping hold of them when they could run?

**Spook** · **05-12-11**, **10:32 PM**

I think the RP only update when they get an entry. Might need to try weatherbys

23-11-11, 09:56 PM	#1 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	The Fighting Fifth Named after the fifth battalion of the Northumberland Fusiliers who acquired the name in the Peninsular wars apparently (that's my Derek Thompson impersonation over). The Farting Farce sees the reappearance of Binocular who is trying to complete a hat trick of odds on defeats in this race. As I was lamenting earlier, those horses with genuine Festival aspirations are increasingly making poor starts to the season for reasons well documented. As if to illustrate I've taken randomish list from last years festival of 'top performers' and supplemented it with a few who might have had aspirations to see what they've done in the first race (24 in total) Winners - Big Zeb, So Young, Somersby, Medermit, Thousand Stars, Overturn, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant, Grand Crus (I didn't include Kauto as I think there were grounds to believe he was trained for the day at Haydock) Losers - What A Friend, Masterminded, Cue card, Long Run, Sizing Europe, Midnight Chase, Captain Chris, Oscars Well, Bostons Angel, Megastar, Oscar Whisky, Time for Rupert, Ghizao, and Menorah So where is Binocular? I've got no idea. I suspect given the torrid time he endured last season that there's a chance Nicky will want to know sooner rather than later just what sort of a horse he's now got. He put in a couple for sluggish runs at Aintree and Punchestown and given that he's got previous here I do wonder if we might see something similar. He comes up against a few race fit, and capable rivals here too. The Weekender has 4 horses listed as 'leaders' (Celestial Halo, Kosta Brava, Overturn and Binocular - not so sure about the last named myself) which in a field of this size is a recipe for what Mordin calls 'pace collapse'. That is to say they all take each other on for a lead and cut their throats allowing something held up to come through. For this to happen though, we need a few things to prevail (it isn't that straight forward). In the first case we need the leaders to empty and essentially not be 'good enough' to see a strong pace out. The second thing is that we need horses and jockeys to consent to a duel. Other things can also help bring them back in the final quarter of mile and that includes heavy ground and an uphill finish as this exaggerates a 'stopping horse' quite markedly (and that's before we take the view that there's a held up closer good enough to get back to them). The held up closer in this case is the 4yo Brampour, though I do want to reserve a mention for the 66/1 rag at this stage. Stormy Weather is an ex Howard Johnson inmate now with Brian Ellison. He's rated a mouth watering 113 He was with Wylie until until 9 November though and hasn't been felt worthy of going south to Ditcheat. I'm a bit puzzled and inquisitive here, as I'm sure there's going to be a few ex Johnson horses well handicapped when in more capable hands that spring surprises throughout this season. I'd be interested to know how long he's been with Ellison? Is the transfer date an administration thing? I'm also struggling to think what he's doing running in this. Ellison ain't stupid, he knows that a close proximity finish could cost him quite a few pounds in the handicap, but by the same token he must know he's got no chance and that he's simply wasting bullet without getting any prize money. It's tempting to suggest his new owners are locals wanting a day out? When you dig into his form a bit though, there's bits and pieces which if it were to come up heavy might give him a squeak at getting closer to a place than his price and O/R suggest (unfortunately heavy ground doesn't look to be on the cards, but keep an eye out for rain anyway) He's raced three times on heavy (twice on the flat). The first of these involved being beaten a neck as a 2yo in a listed race at St Cloud by Entre Deux Eaux (St Cloud does ride heavy in November). Entre Deux Eaux came 2nd in the following years Prix Imprudence finishing 2L behind Elusive Wave, and followed up a few weeks later when finishing 6th and 4.5L's behind the same horse in the French thousand Guineas. His second run in heavy ground saw him come 3rd at Haydock over 12F's just 4L's behind Opinion Poll with Distant Memories splitting them. And finally he beat Bocamix 2.25L's in hurdles race at Newcastle over C&D. He actually earned a flat rating of 98 which is pretty useful and not too far removed from Celestial Halo's 100 earned in the St Leger. He came fifth in the Fred Winter before Howard really got stuck into him and ran up a sequence of 7, F, 9, 6, which clearly accounts for his useless rating. I kind of harbour a suspicion that with some sensible treatment he could be off a useful mark and if he got heavy ground and was prepared to flog himself (something a few others might be reluctant to do) he's got the potential to be whole lot nearer than his 113 suggests. So what of the others? Binocular I think is unbackable at odds on for a horse that throws in the odd clunker. If he downs tools there has to be chance he won't even place. I can't imagine Celestial Halo will be looking to do Binocular any favours and expect him to try and force a strong pace and test the 2010 champion. He himself was in the process of being gubbed I felt at Wincanton though and was well beaten when inheriting on Grandouet's demise. Grandouet beat Brampour by 6L's in the Triumph and although I wouldn't like to say how much Grandouet would have beaten Celestial by at the Somerset track, I don't think it was far off that. On that logic Brampour might have the beating of Celestial Halo, but there is an issue of level weights versus a 10Ib concession to consider. OK since the Triumph he's twice gone in this term with strong finishes and seemingly show the benefits of a breathing op. I'm not convinced the Greatwood is up to much and he won't get a 7Ib claim under these conditions either. The jockey bookings also suggest that its Celestial that's preferred too. I'm also persuaded that the record of the age group 0-0-5 is dead against here, and if Katchit couldn't do it then there's no real reason to think a Triumph 9th should succeed in a task that a Triumph winner couldn't. The only way I see Brampour getting involved is through a dramatic pace collapse, but I still think he could be right on Celestial Halo and wouldn't be shocked to see him beat his stablemate (wonder what he'd be in a match bet?). With the ground set as it is I'm probably preferring Overturn. There is a few that he would have lost to Oscar Whisky last week, and also that he's had a hard race. I'm inclined to take Donald McCain at his word in the Weekender though (never regarded McCain is a hype or stick punters away type of trainer) "Jason (Maguire) felt it was far from over as our fellow had more left in the tank. He seems none the worse for his efforts and if the ground doesn't go against him he'll go for the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle"

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23-11-11, 11:44 PM	#2 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Actually this is no bet race (not sure what I'm thinking) Try the Rehearsal Chase instead. I realise that in jump racing you have to be more patient and try and accumulate shorter prices more so than you would on the flat where there's more latitude in trying to find the double figured winner, but there must be better 7/2 shots flying around on Saturday

25-11-11, 12:10 PM	#3 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Well the Rehearsal Chase has gone to hell on a handcart too. I drew up a long-list of 6 earlier in the week and then thought I'd wait to see how many stood their ground (2 or 3 I thought). No. All bloody 6 of them, whilst everything else entered seems to have dropped out (including some who I was hoping would set the market up for me) leaving me with 6 options in a field of 8. I've kind of omitted Hey Big Spender as I don't believe he's in the same class as the likes of Neptunes Collonges, Seemorebusiness, or One Knight, who are the others who gave significant weight away. Ashfield Dream won LTO which has been more of millstone than an endorsement for this race, and Minella Theatre is having his first run of the season which also weighs heavily against. Interestingly, Garleton is one of 3 qualifiers from a system that Nick Mordin was featuring this week (might go back and re-read it) as I need to decide if there's anything in it, or whether Nick's just padding out copy. I was leaning towards Categorical on Wednesday though

25-11-11, 08:08 PM	#4 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Return to the farting farce now as we have two developments that might be of significance. The first concerns the defection of Brampour with the number of places still unchanged. The second concerns a shifting in the ground to G/S on a course that isn't renowned as a 'drier'. I'm increasingly thinking that Celestial Halo can inherit this all of a sudden, but I'm also a sucker for small fields in jump racing (where there's a fallers chance) and big priced outsiders sneaking something. Stormy Weathers record on heavy I've covered, as I have his flat form. If he's settled in well for a change of scenery and responds with a rejuvenated performance is it possible that he could inherit a place at 125/1? Right I won't labour that daft idea any more, and perhaps its better to back him place only for a bit less rather than burn 50% of your stake on an outcome that won't happen. The key to the race will be a combination of Binocular's fitness and pace. The former we can't really know about other than he's twice disappointed now in this race. My suspicion is that Nicky will have him further forward than the last two renewals though, so we're kind of relying him to throw his toys out a bit and put in a lacklustre effort. The pace angle I think is more interesting and we have to go back to Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle to see what might happen. Overturn led them out at a fair pace with Celestial Halo tracking on G/S. Overturn ultimately proved the first to fold and went down by 47L's when coming in last of 5. Celestial Halo by contrast would have won had he not messed up the last flight. He duly rallied giving 4Ibs to Milie Chief, but ultimately was touched off by a nose in the end. On this evidence at least, a small field fast pace involving the two on G/S hands a clear verdict to the Nicholls runner. At 47L's Overturn won't place, and if beaten badly in all probability won't be 'got at' as preservation for another day is more important than the prize money If Celestial Halo is one nil up against Overturn in head to heads, he's four one down against Binocular though, and even that victory was by a head. Binocular has beaten Celestial Halo by 7L's, 4.5L's, 12L's and 12.75L's. He's lost the last two Fighting Fifths by 7L's and 7.25L's. On their most recent runnings it would suggest even a Binocular who isn't fit would win this by about 5L's. Urm....... there's no evidence to support my hunch really Perhaps I'm better off trying to get any 2 of the 3 beaten by a degree of distance, and whereas the possibility that Overturn and Celestial Halo might cut each others throats, all things being equal, it's unlikely that both will go out like a light allowing the outside to trundle home in second. I need a faller or for something to go wrong with Binocular who has had a history of injuries To be honest, the more likely candidate to flop is Celestial Halo off a break of just 21 days. His record being returned quickly isn't great. On the flat it reads 6, 3, 2 but we need to look at it hurdling to get a better a picture, and quite probably need to look closer at defeated distances too. 2nd - by 7L's Aintree 11th - by 40L's Aintree Fell - at Aintree but was travelling well at the time 3rd - 6.25L's Relkeel behind Karabak and Any Given Day 3rd - 13L's behind Oscar Whisky 1st - beat Trenchant at Fontwell by 6L's I need the ground to go softer really to bring the rag into play, and probably need a slow pace which has caught Binocular out when Go Native blasted home to bring the rags potential from the flat into the equation as well. It ain't gonna happen. It's conceivable I might get the first (though unlikely) but I can't see how I'll get the second. I'm betting on Overturn to blow up, and one of the other two to fall

25-11-11, 11:51 PM	#5 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Back to the Rehearsal Chase, which once upon time used to be a genuine rehearsal (and quite a reliable one at that). Only Hey Big Spender holds an entry for Chepstow today though and off a mark of 150 I really can't see what incentive he has to win this, yet alone be primed for the day? I'm increasingly thinking that with a 40 knot wind blowing this could be carnage and would make sense to try and side with safe jumpers (which brings me on to the Mordin system) which is based on runners who earn the form book comment "jumped well". Surprisingly few do. Garleton earned it in a 10 runner field which Mordin suggests accounts for 0.43% of runners. He is a bit one paced and its possible that a strong wind could blunt faster horses as it looks like it will be a head-wind in the all important finishing straight. There's 4 fences in the home straight including an open ditch first up. Jumping might just be the key at the business end as there's a fair chance they'll all be finishing at similar speeds. The testing jumps will probably jump from a cross-wind though which will only really effect the one fence down the side. Hey Big Spender has fallen twice and unseated once in 14 chase starts. Garleton's only calamity came in the Topham otherwise he's completed all 25 chases he's contested since being pulled up in his very first. Categorical is another one with a pretty unblemished record too (1 PU in 29 chases) and has a course record of 1, 2, 1. I might lob them into a forecast. My own suspicion is something will prove to fast for Garleton but Newcastle is a stiff test and this might help limit his exposure to a faster finisher that you normally see on a tight track with a short home-straight

26-11-11, 06:33 PM	#6 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	I won tickets to Newcastle today and bit the bullet and went at the expense of football (good choice!) No winners though, I bit my lip till the 1.10 when Allthekingshorses ran, this horse has been on my list since its last win when it beat an odds on Nicholls horse and Ken Pitterson in the weekender said it looked short of fitness, was really wooly in its coat but had a serious engine. It looked well today but ran a stinker. Not sure what the excuse was. I am not an expert paddock judge but South Leinster didn’t look fit but ran on well at the end. I am trying to keep an eye out for these ex Howard Johnson/Wylie horses because they should be open to improvement( I don’t rate Howard Johnson) I ended up disagreeing with myself in the Fighting Fifth because I ended up backing Binocular, I didn’t think it would win for the usual reasons but I thought the ground was a bit soft for Overturn and it might get tired after ending up in a speed duel with Celestial Halo. The 3 market leaders all looked fit to me. My last bet was on Garleton in the Rehearsal and put it in a forecast with Hey Big Spender. Should of knew something was up when it drifted, Front runners had done well all day so thought it hang on even for second but I don’t think it was at the front at any time during the race and might as well of not turned up. Biggest lesson learned is don’t ignore these drifts. Will go over the recordings tomorrow morning since MOTD is a turn off.

26-11-11, 06:53 PM	#7 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	Just read on the bha site allthekingshorses jockey reported a breathing problem

26-11-11, 07:06 PM	#8 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	Newcastle was a bit of a graveyard for me today (well alot of a graveyard actually) but the 113 rated dog otherwise known as Stormy Weather has run to about 131 through Overturn, and 136 through Binocular. Every day he spends out of Howards clutches should bring him on, and its difficult to think that the handicapper can really put him up 20Ibs on the back of this. There might be a tidy little handicap hurdle in him somewhere

26-11-11, 10:51 PM	#12 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	The Nicholls ones are well documented, but I tend to agree that those who've gone to lesser trainers might be worth noting. I fear this could be a research assignment though ..... seek and ye shall find. Having said that, I'm not sure where you'd start? Weatherbys?

27-11-11, 10:09 AM	#13 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	cant find anything on the net, tried the sales websites as well and nothing. Found an article though that states "Tidal Bay,Tigre D'Aron, Zhakiera Spirit, Prospect Wells, Frankie Figg, Roger Beantown and Grandioso will join Quwetwo, Ascendant, Doeslessthanme, Double Expresso, Hold Fast and The Knoxs are at Ditcheat" Willie Mullins has Back In Focus along with Boston Bob, Felix Yonger, On His Own, Prince De Beauchene, Drive Time and Rupert Lamb. 33 are going to the sales(i think John Wade bought 5) and 11 unraced horses are going to Ireland to run in point to points. I will flick through a old horses in training book if i go in a bookshop they always have old copies of them.

03-12-11, 07:26 PM	#14 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	John Wade had a double today with Moon Indigo and Diamond Frontier both ex johnson horses. I havent give up on this yet think there could be some more to win.

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05-12-11, 08:56 PM	#15 (permalink)
Hexham VIP Moderate Handicapper Join Date: Feb 2009 Twitter: @CR_HexVIP Location: North East	More work than i thought this, Been through all the Howard Johnson horses in howards 2010/11 book and made a list of the horses he trained, But the RP website still has Johnson as the trainer that means it is not up to date or they havent been sent to the sales yet. I dont understand why they wouldnt of went to the sales - is he keeping hold of them when they could run?

05-12-11, 10:32 PM	#16 (permalink)
Spook World Class Join Date: Sep 2005	I think the RP only update when they get an entry. Might need to try weatherbys