Feltham Novices Chase

[Spook]

Yet to see the entries, but the whispers I'm picking up suggest this could be a real cracker (more interesting than the King George as a betting race anyway). I'm starting get interested in Silviniaco Conti to spring a bit of surprise and will take him to reverse with Cue Card over three miles and possibly Bobs Worth and Grand Crus too. Having said that, I don't whose lining up yet

[Spook]

Grand Crus
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
Champion Court
Mr Moonshine
Graduation Night
Saint Are
Teaforthree
Emmaslegend

I reckon there's 5 and half potential winners in here (more competitive than the King George)

[Spook]

As you know, I think staying hurdlers are the class act of racing and I'm still to be convinced that the Spa hurdle produces much more than rubbish. I've had a quick flick through its history and made out a short list of horses that graduated out of it to make their mark chasing;

Dream Alliance, Bewleys Berry, Wichita Lineman, Airforce One, Carruthers, Thetother One, Gone to Lunch, Cape Tribulation and Chief Dan George

Basically handicappers, the only ones I could find who've done anything of note in open chase company were Midnight Club and What A Friend (who is probably the most successful graduate). I reckon its a pretty poor return, especially when you compare to what routes out of the Supreme or the Ballymore/ SAH....... but ...... and its a big but, this is about their novice year being that its the Feltham under consideration, and much as I'm trying to imagine them away, the names of Weapons Amnesty and Bostons Angel are also in the alumni (2 SAC winners). If only they weren't there!!!

With 3 representatives from this year (Bobs Worth, Teaforthree and Champion Court) I'd love to be able strike through all three, but for such time as these names and their SAC achievements remain on the ledger I can't. And I suppose if I stretch things a bit, Baachanal won a stayers hurdle and a Feltham

Bobs Worth and Grand Crus will stay, and yet I suspect Silviniaco Conti is the best jumper in the field. Unlike the King George, horses do fall in the Feltham. 13% of the horses that tackle the 18 fences have fallen in the last 10 years, and you can add another 9% on for UR's.

For form study, Cue Card actually ties them together, albeit he fell when racing Grand Crus so there's a limit as to what we can learn, and Silviniaco was also a long way from being primed to take him on in what was also a muddling race run over a trip far from ideal.

I'm increasingly torn between a view that says dismiss all staying hurdlers and stick with Silviniaco, and the form book which really seems to indicate he'll finish behind the other two. Silviniaco is one of those rare novices that has earned the form book comment "jumped well" and one suspects that Nicholls is bringing him along very much to plan at the moment. I've just go a feeling he's going to possibly make up to be the best chaser and that he might be the one nearest to having had this set as a target

[Spook]

Well I made a kind of trends analysis out which had Teaforthree topping the rankings, which in itself needn't be cause for disaster, but when Graduation Night came second, followed by Bobs Worth, one is tempted to suspect that they're either the 'tricks' that have beaten the system, or that the trends I've picked out shouldn't be relied on. In truth it seems to hinge the 'runs over fences' stat with Bobs Worth, Grand Crus and Silivianacio Conti only having had 2 runs as opposed to the preferred range of 3+, and I'm not totally convinced by the veracity of the win right handed stat either. OK at one level I can see that novice chasers who are still learning the game to some extent, and might be 'thrown' a little bit if asked to race at speed the wrong way round for the first time, and that most previous winners of the Feltham had a right handed verdict in their locker, but I suspect I've overloaded its value, (though do note that Grand Crus is 0-2-1 going right handed).

Anyway, I thought I'd adopt a fresh view based on how I think this race will pan out. As things stand one can reasonably anticipate Mr Moonshine leading them off at a true clip. Perhaps we shouldn't overlook that this horse has only just been beaten 15.5L's by Gauvian who was noted as being "all out" and 11L's by Somersby "kept on under pressure" off level weights going right handed on a flat course in the Peterborough Chase. I think this is reasonably strong form in the context of this race, and if you're prepared to extrapolate Masterminded into the equation through Somersby than there's a clear case to be made for Mr Moonshine. His 20/1 looks wrong to me.

After considering this, I was led into a pace angle. There are quite a few made up novice staying hurdlers in this race (as well as Grand Crus). This division more than any other involves slow races. If Mr Moonshine does take them along at a proper chasers gallop over 3 miles, some of these are going to be outside of their comfort zone and facing a true test for the first time in their careers. Getting 3 miles off a slow pace is reasonably easy enough. This race could easily present a different challenge that involves a combination of stamina, class, and jumping accuracy.

In this case stamina doesn't mean 'lasting 3 miles' but rather sustaining a strong gallop over 3 miles. The two things are subtly different. TS is probably are best indicator and you can only earn a high TS by running a constant pace through out the race. You don't earn high TS figures by going slow and then sprinting, so in this regard at least, it might be more indicative than most pointers as to which horses are better suited to a strong pace by way of stamina (or at least proven they can do it). The highest career TS recorded by 3 of the 6 horses I've got under consideration has already been registered in a chase (despite all of them being novices and having run in appreciably more hurdles races to date). This in itself is a tacit acknowledgement that they're being required to up their game now. It's also the case that only a horse that possesses a bit of genuine class can hit the high TS marks (as a general rule) and when you throw in the additional requirement to jump 18 fences accurately at a speed which they've hitherto only been required to do in the final couple of furlongs of a race, I think we can foresee a couple of punctured reputations.

Let me illustrate it another way. The following are career high TS's gained by the last 10 Feltham winners prior to winning. The list excludes Long Run as he never had one coming over from France as he did.

Gloria Victus = 159
Bacchanal = 159
Ollie Magern = 159
Jair du Cochet = 155
Strong Flow = 154
-------------------------
Ungaro = 135
Darkness = 133
Breedsbreeze = 132
Maximise = 127
Joe Lively = 117

It's actually quite an interesting little spread isn't it?, as we have two distinct groupings with a degree of separation between them. I suspect if I gave you that list of ten horses and asked you to rank them top 5 and bottom 5 this is the grouping you'd come up with. So 50% of Feltham winners had already run a TS in excess of 150 during their careers. Now when we revisit this list and insert the high water marks from the fledgling careers of this years combatants a very interesting thing happens.

Gloria Victus = 159
Bacchanal = 159
Ollie Magern = 159
Silviancioa Conti = 157
Jair du Cochet = 155
Strong Flow = 154
-------------------------
Teaforthree = 143 (Ch)
Mr Moonshine = 141 (Ch)
Grand Crus = 138 (Ch)
Ungaro = 135
Darkness = 133
Champion Court = 133
Breedsbreeze = 132
Bobs Worth = 129
Maximise = 127
Joe Lively = 117

We have a stat that has a 50% win correlation that only takes in 11% of the field (or one horse in this case). However, this still leaves us needing to satisfy the requirement for excluding the others, and three of them in particular are on the upper end of the slow winners. If we believe therefore that a winner (or this years winner) will need to run a TS close to 150 because of the likely way the race will be run, how do we account for the winners who all succeeded having previously run no faster than 135 between them? Well the answer is relatively straight forward. With the exception of Ungaro (where we saw a degree of pace collapse in truth), they all won slow renewals.

Breedsbreeze = 95
Joe Lively = 98
Darkness = 109
Maximize = 121

Ungaro won in a TS of 146, but otherwise we're witnessing slow horses winning slow renewals. This shouldn't be a shock I suppose, they'd demonstrated they could do this before, but what we don't know is how they might have fared in a truly run race?. By contrast Jair du Cochet, Bacchanal and Gloria Victus all beat 150 when winning their Feltham's.

If we take the view therefore that this is likely to be a 'hot' renewal, then some of these are going into completely new territory. Silviniciao Conti has 3 TS's over hurdles for instance that exceeds any figure put up so far to date by Grand Crus (though fans of Rock On Ruby might be concerned how Bobs Worth has beaten him over 21F's in a TS of 32). To be out-sprinted by a staying hurdler when you're lining up in a 2 mile race is a minor concern (even if staying hurdlers tend to win their races this way).....

Unfortunately the form book would bear out my conclusion. As I've already said, Cue Card and Mister Moose tie the principals together (although I think it would be foolish to ignore Mr Moonshine).

Cue Card beat Silvinacioa Conti at Chepstow by 4.5L's with the RP's race analysis recording (rather lazily) that "He´s twice been put in his place by Cue Card now and clearly needs a stiffer test". It's perhaps worth recording that the first of these two defeats came in the International Hurdle at 17F's and involved a half a length defeat for a 4Ib concession in the weights. I'm afraid that doesn't equate to being put in your place in my book. Off levels he'd have beaten him by 3L's. So that brings us back to this Chepstow race, where he's lost by 4.5L's off levels, from which we might tenuously extract he was under-cooked by 7.5L's (this is hypothetical and indicative conjecture) but the race analysis certainly set the alarm bells ringing.

"Paul Nicholls warned that Silviniaco Conti, a winner on this card last year, would come on for this run, and given how the 5yo was a dual 2m4f winner last season, it was no surprise to see him come off worse of the big pair when asked to sprint for home".

A Nicholls horse that carries warning of this nature FTO is normally a sign that the trainer holds it in high regard and has plans sketched out for it well beyond the immediate.

He then went to Wincanton and won with a degree of aplomb adding the form book comment "Jumped well" to the favourably impression created at Chepstow where his jumping was noted as "very sound". In this race he beat Mad Moose 25L's receiving 4Ibs The relevance of Mad Moose of course is that he has form with Cue Card and Bobs Worth from Newbury's Berkshire Novice Chase where Bobs Worth has beaten him 35L's on the same terms, and Cue Card the same giving 3Ibs. At face value this is a 10L victory for Bobs Worth, yet I'm not totally convinced.

It might be a slight exaggeration to say that Bobs Worth beat Cue Card by a short-head (even if he did). It might be more accurate to say Geraghty beat Tizzard, and in any event, the 7Ib pull at the weights means that Cue Card should have won off levels, and that Silvincioa Conti is actually ahead of Bobs Worth through Cue Card. Leaving that aside, the next bit of quasi-analysis requires a bit of a leap of faith. Mad Moose had got second and third sewn after he jumped the last in both races and was quickly dropped to a canter. The last fence at Newbury comes 110yds further back than it does at Wincanton, suggesting that he spent half a furlong extra at the slower pace which would exaggerate his defeated distance. The Berkshire Novices by contrast also featured a driving all-out finish to the line between the two principals which Mad Moose didn't partake in. Bobs Worth was flat to the boards to get up and I'm therefore taking the view that a combination of the two finishes plus the extended distance that Mad Moose stopped running from, accounts for the 10 additional lengths that Bobs Worth has beaten him by over Silviniaco Conti (whilst acknowledging there isn't a lot in it).

This leaves me trying to get Grand Crus beaten which is a harder task. Cue Card fell he was asked to take on Grand Crus, and went down too early for us to take a read on him. Grand Crus duly completed an acceptable 10L victory over Champion Court in receipt of 5Ibs. At one level I'm not convinced this is great form, but the advertisement for it really comes from Zaynar back in third, and Vino Griego who was well detached in 5th. It's always possibly of course that both of these were sufficiently so far back as to say they can't represent the form though?

Grand Crus then completed a follow up victory over Paul Nicholls's Sonofvic by 2L's giving 7Ibs in the 3 mile Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase at Cheltenham. In this race he too earned the formbook comment "jumped well" and in doing so also put up his career high-watermark TS of 138. Viking Blond back in 3rd could be leant a form boost for the Welsh National if Grand Crus obliges here.

I'm hoping that Nicholls might have a fix on Grand Crus through Sonofvic, and there are some reasonably encouraging noises coming out of the yard. I haven't committed the money yet, as there is more than just a bit of me wondering if the 4/1 on Mr Moonshine to place isn't a better bet than the 9/2 (likely to be shorter) on SC to win

[Spook]

Grand Crus beat Kauto Star by 2.80 secs (the hidden story of this afternoon's action). Will try and dig out some historical Feltham and King George runs to see how often this is done

[Spook]

Going back 23 years I can only find 4 instances where the Feltham was faster.

1: French Goblin beat Desert Orchird by 1.40 secs (in those days the novices carried 10Ibs less than they do today). Dessie would have beaten him by about 1.45 secs off today's terms, so I'm inclined to discount this one.

2: Brownhall beat Algan by 1.80 secs
3: Lord of the River beat Teeton Mill by 3.00 secs
4: Grand Crus beat Kauto Star by 2.80 secs

It would be interesting to understand how this time differential has come about (one for the sections) but at this stage I'd speculate we've seen 'pace collapse' again, the question is where and how severe was it?

[Spook]

I haven't completed a full sectional analysis but have taken Grand Crus versus Kauto Star. The first section I've used is when they pass/ clear the A/W track on the far side for the first time as being indicative of completing the first circuit (I think the novices might have started a bit further forward than they did in the King George and this could be accounting for some of the 2.80 secs)

1st circuit

Kauto = 3.09.86
Grand Crus = 3.07.41

Grand Crus is 2.45 secs faster

The next section I've timed is the back straight on the second circuit. This stretches from the landing side of the first fence (the 12th) through the top turn, and the landing side of the third last (the 16th). Grand Crus makes a move in this section on jumps to the lead at 12th and then seeks to stretch them. However, Kauto is doing something similar even though it might not appear quite so dramatic

Back straight

Kauto = 1.09.53
Grand Crus = 1.09.31

Grand Crus is 0.22 faster

The final sections are timed fence to post and this is where Kauto powers home. In truth, a closer look at this section would tell you that Long Run seemingly has the bigger engine and gains a length between fences that Kauto then gets back through his jumping. Basically Kauto is much more fluent than Long Run going into a fence and getting away from it. This might simply be evidence of experience or class? Alternatively it could be a quirk in Long Run or the difference between Ruby and SWC in their presentation of a fence

3rd last to post

Kauto = 37.92
Grand Crus = 39.60

Kauto Star is 1.68 secs faster

I've got a timing error (hand timed) of 0.13 secs between this section and the three individual fences that make it up

3rd to 2nd = Kauto 0.61 faster
2nd to last = Kauto 0.56 faster
last to post = Kauto 0.38 faster

The final section (last to post) is interesting as both Grand Crus and Kauto appear to ease up slightly, although I'd say that Grand Crus looked the more obvious, although this is a shorter section so perhaps its in keeping

Come Cheltenham there would't be much in it between Kauto and Long Run on this evidence I'd suggest. I'd probably favour the younger horse. Kempton features 3 fences over 550yds, and Cheltenham 2 fences over 620 plus an uphill finish. I reckon Long Run would get a length back for having one less fence to negotiate and about half a length for the additional 70yds plus the uphill finish. That would give him a 0.25L victory, but Ruby did a bit of a Barzalona and would be entitled to a smidge back himself. I reckon Long Run wins by a head. I also wonder if SWC's assertion that he'd 'get off' if he thought it was right to do so might be tested in the run up to Cheltenham.

As regards the Feltham and King George times, I reckon the novices were about a second quicker, although there's a small section I haven't timed which could stretch that out to about 1.30 secs. I suspect the rest might come from them jumping off from a slightly more advanced position, but right now it looks like Grand Crus is going to take some beating (Bog Snorkeller will need to be a machine). For those opposing Grand Crus (and I feel I have to or simply sit it out - I remember the parable of Nick Dundee) you might draw some solace (well a lot actually) from the dire record of Feltham winners in the Sun Alliance Chase

[kidoncricketer]

to my eye, both grand crus & kauto were tiring.
long run will beat it at cheltenham over the more stamina laden track.
grand crus, was visually ver impressive,
so much so that, that 2m5f looks his trip, (regardless of hurdles)

long runs feltham was more impressive for me, but possibly a lesser quality race, than grand crus.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

interesting that captain chris never travelled in the race, and did amazingly well to finish 3rd, considering somersby was a bridle horse 7 out, as he should have been, the fact that captain chris looked outpaced all the way around is a little strange for me.

bobs worth was outpaced by the speed that grand crus produced all the way around, and the fact that silviano conti couldnt get to the winner, tells me that grand crus could win a champion chase before a gold cup.
bobs worth may hold the edge in the sunalliance ???

[broadsword]

An intresting read Spook.I wouldn't be half surprised if Pipe goes for the Gold Cup with him in truth .I don't think he'd see it out myself and I'd agree with Kidon that Long run would grind Kauto down in the last couple of furlongs and probably win the Gold cup in a similar fashion to last year (If he could sort out his jumping I don't think there would be anything that could beat him tbf). Very impressed with Grand Crus myself and very impressed with his jumping looked an absolute natural which I have to admit I never thought he would be.If he were mine he'd go for the Ryan Air without hesitation it looks a fairly weak race this year IMO and GC would be an absolute certainty for it but I can't see them going that way with him(If they did I'd glady hand the bookies my knackers once more).

Of Captain Chris I don't think he'd had the best of preps for this and we'd do well to remember he was being slammed by Ghiazo at this point last year. I was as surprised as anyone when he won the arkle last year but I wouldn't put it past him turning up at the festival a different animal once more and if I knew the Gold cup was his destination the 33's available would tempt me a little.

So hopefully Grand crus for the ryan air and retire Kauto on a high,that'll do me

By the way Alun, Long run still hasn't won a race

[Spook]

Originally Posted by broadsword

An intresting read Spook.I wouldn't be half surprised if Pipe goes for the Gold Cup with him in truth .

Gloria Victus? I would. In fact of all the trainers I wouldn't have thought would try this it would be David Pipe given that his dad was the last person to attempt this and it ended in the horses death

If he attempts any open race, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see him go at the Champion Chase with the early speed Grand Crus showed and the division possibly being vulnerable. It was a target they used to speculate was right up Florida Pearls street every year, but ultimately it was never taken. Personally, I've felt for some time that in a weaker year a good novice would be competitive in the Champion

[broadsword]

Gloria victus is the exact reason I think they'd be likley to try it again I don't think that they were convinced that it was beat when it fell (I was).Gloria Victus was in the same bracket I'd have said as Grand crus with one big difference GV had a very bad tendancy to jump right whereas Grand crus if anything goes a little left.Now all the talk before GV's gold cup run wasn't about the fact it was a novice or wether it had the ability it was about the left handed track.If you were prepared to chance a novice that did that why would you not chance Grand Crus.GV died but was that because it ran in the gold cup ? Or was it simply down to bad luck and a nasty fall ? In my view it was just a tired fall after keep trying to make up the ground it was giving away at its fences thats exceptable. A horse could fall in any race at any time and fate will decide wether its fatal. You could say that a horse is more likely to fall when its jumping is put under pressure I.e when being pushed out of its comfort zone either being asked to go quicker than it wants to or further than it wants to.So I'd except that Grand crus might fall in the later stages of a gold cup if he got tired as I do believe its a bit more of a stamina test than he would want.But if your considering the Champion Chase as a viable option then nothing but nothing would put his jumping under more pressure pace wise than a champion chase (I personally think he'd find it a bit sharp anyway even though he does posess a fair bit of speed) If the prize money and prestige were equal he'd be in the Ryan Air tommorow.

As I said If he were mine he'd go for the Ryan Air.I just struggle to see Pipe running him in the RSA I maybe wrong I just can't see it though.

If anything I'd say Long run maybe more likley to fall in the Gold cup than Grand crus would.

[Norton]

Gloria Victis winning at ? Doncaster? the RP Chase? Utter star quality for my untrained eye at the time (it's still untrained now) - I was gutted when he fell in the GC

[Spook]

Originally Posted by broadsword

So hopefully Grand crus for the ryan air and retire Kauto on a high,that'll do me By the way Alun, Long run still hasn't won a race

With Masterminded unlikely to race again the RyanAir has some attraction as an alternative target, but David Pipe has Great Endeavour for that (who might be a player in the Gold Cup yet - but I doubt it)

My Long Run theory revolved around never being the same horse again as a result of him being scarred by a run on bone jarring ground. In truth, I see absolutely no evidence that's happened, and although he's due to run in the Aon next (a race that has claimed a few upsets) you'd expect him to stick a 1 on the board really. If he does fail this year though, he might be struggling next year with some good novices coming through, plus anything else that might emerge, but right now I wouldn't give too much for my chances of holding onto the prediction. At the very least I'd expect him to win a King George or Lancashire Chase.

[broadsword]

Originally Posted by Norton

Gloria Victis winning at ? Doncaster? the RP Chase? Utter star quality for my untrained eye at the time (it's still untrained now) - I was gutted when he fell in the GC

Not sure what ye waffling on about Pete the Racing Post chase is at Kempton in which he looked like some kinda machine.The Racing post trophy champion 2yo mile race at doncaster he never won Nor did he ever visit the left handed donny jumps track.I too was gutted when he fell mate we lost a star that day and he'd have won everything on a right handed track for years to come imo.

[Norton]

Originally Posted by broadsword

Not sure what ye waffling on about Pete the Racing Post chase is at Kempton in which he looked like some kinda machine.The Racing post trophy champion 2yo mile race at doncaster he never won Nor did he ever visit the left handed donny jumps track.I too was gutted when he fell mate we lost a star that day and he'd have won everything on a right handed track for years to come imo.

Chill out big man - the ?s were to show I wasn't sure Hope I'm less mardy when I hit your age

It was indeed Kempton that I meant

[broadsword]

I'm ultra mardy atm but think its more a combination of missed oppourtunities,the post Christmas blues,the post Christmas bank balance and pretty much the complete mess I'm in atm the moment not knowing my arse from my elbow in any aspect of me life . Midlife crisis ? So the age thing might be a factor

My apologies oh well endowed one