Epsom Handicaps (saturday)

[Spook]

The Dash has been given a separate thread and so any further thoughts will appear there, however that leaves us with a few to go at and I'll take the highlight of the entire card first, the 4.50 'Surefooted' 80-100 handicap for aspiring hurdlers. One thing I did notice when flicking through previous winners to try and build up an idea about this race, is that 6 of the last 10 were slipping back down the handicap (this is quite unusual). So how are the winners weights distributed?

8.0 to 8.6 = 0-4-29
8.7 to 8.13 = 8-9-55
9.0 to 9.6 = 2-4-36
9.7+ = 0-3-11

Urm.... clearly a case to be made here I'd say?

80% of the winners come from 47% of the runners

If we use weight to cut them down, they we end up with a reasonably pruned short-list.

Chilly Filly, Bourne, Berling, Aurorian and The Galloping Shoe. The only one of these that's currently dropping back down the handicap is Chilly Filly Oh no, I fear this one's name rings a bell? Berling is static at the weights and is also of interest.

However, this race takes place at 4.50, which should mean we're on G/F ground by then. How do these protagonists bear up under these conditions?

Chilly Filly = 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 12
Bourne = 4, 11, 4
Berling = 5, 1, 1, 5, 4, 9, 12, 6
Aurorian = 27, 10, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2
The Galloping Shoe = 9, 3, 6, 1, 4

Aurorian came 10th in this last year off the same mark. He was also beaten by Chilly Filly and is so passed over.

Berling is of interest and I suppose he's starting to come back down the weights slowly having been raised 91, and 87 subsequently when finishing just 3L's fifth at Royal Ascot to Dandino.

Bourne is favourite for the handicap partnership of Cumani and Fallon (22% isn't as prolific as many might think actually) Cumani has associations with quite a few jockey's at a higher S/R, but 22% still isn't to be sneezed at either, and you'd have to think he's worth chucking into a forecast. Bourne has been raised 7Ibs since the start of the season and this is his first trip at 12F's on turf. He wouldn't be the obvious choice for me at 7/2. On my shortlist I prefer the claims of others. Berling would be the obvious one, but heaven knows what he might decide to do? I suggest backing him with Paddy Power who are the most likely to give you a refund

It's worth flagging a few comments actually. The first is from Newbury

"A decent middle-distance handicap, and a taking performance from BERLING, despite showing a quirky streak in the closing stages. The principals came from the back of the field. Although a narrow winner on his reappearance at Folkestone, that form had worked out quite well and a 5lb higher mark did not look punitive. He travelled up smoothly on the outside and looked set to score decisively when quickening two lengths clear 2f out, but the dark side of Montjeu then took hold of him and he swerved violently right when the whip came out. The stands´ rail saved him though, and he still hand plenty in hand to score pretty handily. He´s still learning, there´s more to come from him, he´ll get further, and he looks very much one to keep on side, althoughperhaps going right-handed might suit him better".

This next one is on his latest from Ascot;

"Berling won at Newbury last May despite veering badly when in front, but he threw any chance he had away with a similar manoeuvre this time. He was running on down the outside to dispute third when he suddenly veered left across to the stands´ rail. Clearly, for all that he is talented, he is pretty quirky".

So the right handed track caused him to veer left this time!!! On Epsom's camber this horse could be an accident waiting to happen.

At 40/1 it might be worth taking an e/w interest in the useless Chilly Filly. She ran like a drain when making her debut at York for James Given. Now in truth she'd never won off a break of 60 days, and she had run badly at York before. She switched from Mark Johnston over the winter, and whereas he is famous for getting his horses fit, it's possible that she needs to be 'Given' time. At 40/1 it might be worth taking a chance that she was left a bit undercooked going into York by a different trainer who observes different schedules. Otherwise she hits the weight window and has form on the ground, she even has a win over 2 furlongs further so might have stamina (beat Aurorian as it happens). I think stamina is probably a bit under-rated at Epsom. It's only when you stand there and look across the 'Downs' towards the 12F start that you realise just how steep the first half mile actually is (it looks steeper going up hill, than Tattenham is going down hill and lasts longer)

The two horses that might represent some class are of course Amanda Perrett's Irish Leger entry 'Life and Soul' and Mark Johnston's Hardwicke entry 'Foxhunt'. Perrett has a good record in this race, but I'm struggling to believe this horse can have been trained to the moment with a target so many months away as it is. Johnston's would seemingly be nearer its apex, but this is a handicap and has fallen to a strange assortment in the past.

[Spook]

Well if yesterday was about short prices and favourites, then today might be the opposite. Having looked at the opener I've found myself able to make a sort of case for Mick Channon's Gottany's O's!!! (33/1) in addition to Silly Filly

This race has produced everything from King George winners to Champion Hurdle contenders in the last 10 years, and I suspect a bit of class might be needed. I'm hoping however that this year that isn't the case!!!

If class can be expressed through a speed figure (a contentious issue in itself) then there might be a few reasons to oppose the fancied horses as unproven. Now admittedly the failure to run a fast time doesn't mean that a horse can't do so the moment they're required to, but in siding with those who have done so already, you are at least putting experience and 'the proven' into your corner rather than relying on potential and the unknown.

For those of you who like your evidence more statistical and in terms of correlations the slowest winner of this race over the past 10 renewals had registered a TS of 67. The median figure is 83.

This might be used to cast a cloud over the prospects of the favourite Boogie Shoes who has so far managed just 65, in other words a figure lower than any of the previous 10 winners had managed by early June.

John Gosdens Rain Mac on 69 doesn't fair that much better, but he might have been set too much to do last time at York when coming third. Interestingly though he was beaten 2.75L's by Mica Mika giving 6Ibs. At 10F's this would have been worth about 3.5L's and a level weights victory of 0.75L's. This is less than Gottany's O's managed off levels in a Conditions Stakes race at Catterick when he fought out a 1.75L verdict over the same horse. Using collateral form only, the 33/1 shot is a length ahead of the 4/1 shot. For additional insurance though, he receives 7Ibs in this race.

His form on G/F is tidy enough (if you're prepared to say polytrack is G/F) then it reads 2, 1, 1, 6.

The sixth involves a race at Chester where he was drawn widest of 8, so wouldn't necessarily be as drastic as it first appears. He was beaten by the progressive Brown Panther, who would go on to repeat the dose at Haydock. I think it's only fair to interpret this second result as a vote of confidence in Michael Owen's horse as it was achieved off levels, whereas Grotty O's gave 11Ibs at Chester for a verdict that was only 1L better at Haydock. Even so, there were still some useful performers filling the places at the Merseyside venue. Richard Hannon's Reflect came second (beat Grotty by 4.75L's giving a couple of pounds). Prior to that he'd finished 3.75L's fourth behind Fielden runner up and Guineas sixth, Happy Today, and 7L's third behind World Domination at Newbury in that maiden which was supposed to have made him Cecil's 'Derby horse'. The filly that came third Quschi might not have run with that much distinction in the Nell Gwyn (8L's behind Barefoot Lady) but in the context of a handicap the form would be respectable.

The one I think is likely to be on the paddock is Tanfeeth who gives the distinct impression of having been looked after, but I got burned by a similar horse in yesterdays 'last'. I'd have to respect Trojan Nights too (provided 'team Haggas haven't gone on the lash).

I'm prepared to take a chance that perhaps Gottany's O's might sneak something, and although I haven't measured it, I've always formed the opinion that Channon has done quite well at this meeting with something over the years

[Spook]

And just to complete the round up (before going to Chantilly on Sunday for a change of luck) we come to the so-called (and inappropriately in this case) 'lucky last'

Probably the trickiest race on the card (and I include the dash).

Where to start in this 6F sprint handicap? well in the last 10 years only the one 3yo has lined up so it's perhaps logical to speculate that anything progressive that is concealing a bit from the handicapper is likely to be 4? Not surprisingly they account for 50% of the winners from 29% of the field, but in a slight contradiction perhaps these aren't typically found lurking at the foot of affairs. The spread 9.0 to 9.6 provides 60% of the winners from 43% of the field.

If you take this literally you end up with just Love Delta and Swiss Cross.

And if you apply the supposed draw bias at stalls 1-5 which reads 50% for this race, you're left with Swiss Cross alone.

Swiss Cross is the fav and they have a poor record (1 win in last 10). In addition he also has defy the won LTO bogey. He's also risen from 77 to 92 since the tongue tie was fitted which has seen a corresponding improvement in his fortunes; 3, 2, 1, 7, 3, 1.

The problem with this draw bias is that stall 17 has twice provided the winner over the same period, and stall 13 has also got in on the act. Parisian Pyramid in stall 17 has made the running before and could help tow his Goodwood conqueror (Love Delta) into affairs. Personally, I'd expect it to be more messy given that they have to run round a bend, so wouldn't necessarily accord this kind of analysis the same weight that I might do on a straight course. Parisian Pyramid meets Love Delta on the same terms for a narrow neck at Goodwood but the respective jockey bookings are more in his favour to turn that round (Spencer for Craine, and De Souza replacing Fairley on Johnston's horse). He came 5th in this last year from a 3Ib lower mark with Spencer on board, and that being so, he needs to have improved a bit more than the obvious.

I've tried to get interested in Piazza San Pietro and there's a lot to get stuck into since moving to Andrew Haynes. He's had 7 wins at 6F's and this does look to be his distance. He's had 3 wins on what I categorise as a downhill course, and with 9 wins on G/F the ground has come for him too. But for all this, I just have this nagging doubt as he's yet to win in a field of more than 10 runners, and Neil Callan has presumably gone elsewhere for a reason. In any event, his price reflects his chance.

The one I think might be getting back to a decent mark is Firebreak at 10/1. Off a mark of 84 he came 9th in the Britannia stakes and then followed up with a win in a 20 runner field at Newmarket's July meeting. His record on G/F is pretty encouraging 6, 1, 9, 1, 11, 14 which encompasses the Britannia and Glorious Goodwood (he also ran 8th in a Doncaster handicap behind Irish Heartbeat at the Leger meeting). From a 3yo high water mark of 91, he's back to 88 now.

This season he ran a nothing race really when making his reappearance finishing 14th of 24 Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day behind Pastoral Player, but we just have to assume that he needed the race. Some of the horses involved have done well since, whereas others have been less distinguished. Jimmy Fortune takes the ride and only has Pisco Sour in the Derby otherwise today (which must be a no-hoper).

With no real confidence, I'll take a chance on him

[ColinP]

Excellent analysis and interesting reading once again, Spook, thanks.

Very little to add; like you I give Trojan Nights a chance in the first but it does look very competitive and in my mind, at least, David Nicholls seems to target, and does well in, the 6f. handicap that closes the card. He has five runners in it today but I have this 'bee in my bonnet' that the yard may be out of sorts. Despite having a 2-y-o winner yesterday they have had a number of 2apparently" fancied horses running poorly and on at least two occasions finishing last.

Something that perhaps should be considered when considering "The Dash".

[Spook]

Off to a flyer with a last in the first!!! and unfortunately (to rub a bit of salt in the wounds) I took a cover bet on Trojan Nights which went down by a short head having looked the winner.

I don't mind coming last, but hate coming 2nd.

Still things can only get better now