Epsom Derby 2011

[The Duke]

Not long now until the second classic of the season, anyone got any ideas to this as yet?

Pour Moi won rather takingly at Saint Cloud this afternoon for Andre Fabre, and is owned by Sue Magnier.

Most firms go 20/1 about him, but Ladbrokes go 8/1, we know Ladbrokes have a line into the Ballydoyle operation so perhaps this one is more likely to line up than the 20/1 suggests?

Would be interesting to get a handle on the performance from a speed perspective...

[Spook]

It all depends on what else Ballydoyle have I suppose? and my best guess is not a lot based on their 2yo performances. O'Brien normally uses the Derrinstown for his best 3yo's and that he accounts for so many of this years renewal leads me to think he hasn't got a stand out candidate.

The time itself is a swine to get a handle given the violent spread, but I'm leaning towards taking a positive view. I also think there's probably an Oaks winner on the card if she has an entry? If not than the Prix Diane looks to be at her mercy. Galikova was pitched into the Bousacc on just her second run and under the circumstances 5th wasn't a bad result. She's the fastest filly I've clocked this year anyway.

Pour Moi looks tailor made for the 12F trip on breeding, (t'was I who altered the pedigree database to make the horse a colt and not a filly as he'd be entered as) and the only alternative I can foresee is the Grand Prix du Paris, Prix Niel and Arc. Fabre might prefer to go that route, but I'm reminded of the comments that Magnier made a few years ago about the Derby and how Coolmore will continue to support the race etc (mind you they sent Cape Blanco to Chantilly last term).

I think it's a tricky race to rate in truth, but I've gone 100.47 for the time being on ground which I reckon was +3.02 (certainly not as described by the French again)

[Spook]

Decoding O'Brien's Derby horse(s) hasn't always been that hard and a combination of the Ballysax and Derrinstown normally holds the answer.

If you look at the horses that won both trials from the last 10 years there might a pattern you can spot

Galileo, High Chapperal, Yeats, Fame and Glory

2 would go onto win at Epsom, 1 might have done had injury not played her part, and the other finished runner up having run into Sea The Stars.

If you look at those horses who ran in both races without winning we have MacArthur and At First Sight. This years Ballysax was won by a filly!!! I'm sorry, but prospective Derby winners don't get beaten by a filly. My suspicion is that he can't have that much?

It might also pay to look at the Derrinstown too with regards to his entries

2001 - Galileo won (El Bueno made the pace)
2002 - High Chapperal won (Nostradamus made the pace)
2003 - The Great Gatsby came 2nd but made the pace for Brian Boru (The great Gatsby came 2nd at Epsom)
2004 - Yeats won on his own
2005 - Grand Central came 3rd, (Down Mexico Way made the pace) Grand Central came 9th at Epsom
2006 - Dylan Thomas won (Altius made the pace) Dylan Thomas came 3rd at Epsom
2007 - Archipenko won, Yellowstone came 2nd, MacArthur 3rd and Hernando Cortes made the pace. Archipenko and Yellowstone came last and 8th at Epsom
2008 - Washington Irving won, (Hindu Kush made the pace) Washington Irving came 5th at Epsom
2009 - Fame and Glory won, Hail Caesar ran (and Listz made the pace) Fame and Glory would finish second at Epsom
2010 - Midas Touch won (At First Sight made the pace and would finish 2nd at Epsom) Midas Touch came 5th

His Derrinstown winners do well in the Derby

1, 1, 3, 5, 2, 5

His Derrinstown placed horses have a less auspicious but respectable record

2, 9, 8, 2

This year he's represented by 3; Recital and Regent Street, with Memphis Tennessee making the pace. As such the entry is closest to 2009 and 2007. In 2007 it transpires he didn't have that much and went at the classic mob handed (8 entries) although you could say that Eagle Mountain would come 2nd (routed through the Guineas) and Soldier of Fortune would win at the Curragh

It would be wrong to say he didn't have much in 2009 though, even if he did provide half the field. had it not been for Sea The Stars he'd have saddled a 1-2-3-4-6. His 2009 Derrinstown looks a bit peculiar as Hail Caesar made up the third horse and wasn't backed to do anything, and was held up in both the race and his next, so wasn't necessarily making the pace either.

Apart from 2007 and 2009, he's only had 2 representatives though and there's just that bit of me thinking he's got strength in numbers without having a stand-out representative again.

I could be wrong? but I'm under the impression he's been using the Criterium du St Cloud a little bit more in the 2yo campaign than he was doing 10 years ago? That being so, Recital looks to be his pick at this stage.

It's leading me to thinking though that Ladbrokes might be wise to stay on the right side of Pour Moi. In 2009 Aiden, perhaps tellingly thanked the owners for letting him run 6 horses at Epsom. Clearly the trainer(s) have to get the permission from the mafia, and that being so, Andre Fabre might expect to receive the same treatment? Coolmore are going to place greater value on the Derby than they are the Grand Prix du Paris, and that being so I don't think 20/1 is a bad price. It was perhaps a bit annoying as this one could have been spotted and snaffled at double the price.

It's perhaps a trend starting to emerge that could be worth keeping an eye on. How many horses in Coolmore and Godolphin ownership has Fabre got at the moment

[The Duke]

I've speed rated the race using my standards I've knocked up for Saint Cloud and I've got the run as massive, and feel that Galikova has run up to around the class of Blue Bunting when winning the 1000 Guineas.

I've got Pour Moi miles clear on figures of anything that's lining up in the Derby, and I'm tempted to smash into that 20/1 available (I've already had a token bet at the price).

I've watched the replay and he didn't settle whatsoever in the closing stages, was still last turning for home and made a swooping run down the outside closing with exceptional pace to settle the race in a matter of strides - I can upload the video if you want?

I've got videos for both Galikova and Pour Moi on my hard drive.

[Spook]

Year throw them up please Jamie

I've got Galokova about 1.25L's ahead of Blue Bunting, which is quite an achievement give that she's running a Gp3 against a classic. Her time has to be the genuine one, and I'd be a little bit more nervous about the colt (unless you take the view he's run within himself). I do remember recording my fastest ever 3yo time on this card for Visindar though (well I should say this race actually) as the 2006 card bears little resemblance to the 2011 one.

I've taken an interest at 20/1, and I think that will look better with a Ballydoyle no show today. Even if he does win the race (again) he's still got to reconcile himself to the idea that his Derrinstown winner has been beaten by a filly in the Ballysax and I'm struggling to think of when that last happened

[andthereoff]

You're probably right, Pour Moi has a better speed rating than anything else lined up in the Derby mainly because it's had more racecourse experience.

I'm personally waiting for the Dante, just booked my tickets today to see a fantatic race, you can bet your bottom doller that either World Domination, Carlton House or Seville will produce a more reliable speed rating in the high 90's if they win.

3 horses you've totally ignored with Pour Moi.

[The Duke]

YouTube - POUR MOI - GREFFULHE [2011]

I've just watched it again and I'm even more impressed. He is clearly a class above these, and in a race where those sitting close to the pace stayed there, he's done mightily well to come from last to first without even being touched with the whip - class horse.

YouTube - GALIKOVA - Prix CLEOPATRE [2011]

[The Duke]

Originally Posted by andthereoff

I'm personally waiting for the Dante, just booked my tickets today to see a fantatic race, you can bet your bottom doller that either World Domination, Carlton House or Seville will produce a more reliable speed rating in the high 90's if they win.

Whilst I've got a high regard of World Domination, it is very hard for a three-year-old to win the Derby without seeing the racecourse at two. In recent years Hala Bek came closest (and probably would have won). Empire Maker's also have the trait of going backwards after a couple of runs from what I have seen and that could potentially be a worry - he is open to improvement however.

Carlton House I believe wants soft ground and there is absolutely no chance of him getting that at Epsom, and I also think they believe Sea Moon is better than him but interesting they're sending him here a race which Stoute won last year with Workforce en-route to Derby success.

Seville was a horse I thought was O'Brien's number one contender, but looking at the placing it looks like being Recital, and O'Brien run both Black Bear Island and Fremantle in the Dante which went on to do nothing, along with Cape Blanco which apart from a freakish Irish Champion win hasn't done much. So it doesn't bode overly well for Seville one would think.

It is a very open and fascinating year I think where literally anything could come to the fore on the day, I'm happy with my 20/1 about Pour Moi though, factoring in the risk of him not going to the race, I'd say he is worth at least the 8/1 quoted by Ladbrokes on that performance so you can comfortably take off 50% of his 20/1 price allowing for him not to show, and I believe 10/1 is still a good value bet.

[Spook]

You can add Septimus to the O'Brien Dante list too

[The Duke]

Wasn't overly impressed with that effort by Recital. Thought Fallon handled him well and he hung badly towards that rail, his head carriage is a nightmare and made hard work of beating off the two pacemakers who both run good races in defeat (especially Memphis Tennesse).

I can't see Recital winning the Derby, the way he hung there suggests he'll dislike that camber at Epsom and that has to be a massive worry.

Come on Pour Moi!

[Budgie]

Back in January I put together a £25 win double on Carlton House at 14/1 for Epsom and Boher Paddy at 12/1 for the Greyhound Derby

As Carlton House is by Street Cry I would be surprised if he did not do better of good / firm going.

[Spook]

O'Brien had a 1-2-3 in 2007 too with Archipenko, Yellowstone, and MacArthur, none of whom would be on the Coolmore roster of greats. Recital becomes his 5th Derrinstown winner that ran in the Ballysax in the last 11 years, but unlike Galileo, High Chapperal, Yeats and Fame and Glory, he didn't win it. He came third and was beaten by a filly. Instead he joins the ranks of Dylan Thomas, Archipenko, Washington Irving and Midas Touch in winning the Derrinstown without having won the Ballysax.

I'll be honest, I'd rather have seen the Ballydoyle horses beaten to improve Pour Moi's prospects of being sent to Epsom, but if past prep running is anything to go by, you could be forgiven for concluding this could be his 'A' team. The only time in the last decade that the Derrinstown failed to represent him was when Yeats went down to injury. If you look through his Dante runners by contrast, the list isn't anywhere near as compelling

[Spook]

Fame and Glory = 99.05
Midas Touch = 95.29
Recital = 92.64

he's quite a way behind his alumni. I note the 20's has gone about Pour Moi, with just the Tote and Skybet standing alone of 16's. Can't believe the last named will last long unless they're limiting everyone to a fiver. Equally tellingly I think, Coral and VC who normally seem to have strong trading teams are only going 12's, whereas even Hills who had stood the 20 have given way to 14's. I also note that whereas a few ran for cover today on Recital (almost a reflex reaction) Corals and Ladbrokes remained unchanged.

Ladbrokes in particular seem to be advertising the fact that they don't want to take a penny on Pour Moi, mind you, they did something similar with Cape Blanco last year and allowed all the other firms to build up an exposure before going bigger than everyone else at a smaller price than the others laid

[Hexham VIP]

I was going to back recital on Saturday when he was 12s but in the end i didnt bother. I think it will drift again on the day possibly bigger than 12s.

I am interested to know why in the last 2 races he has started to hang, he didn't do it on debut and i cant find a video of his group 1 win in france(if anyone finds a link i will be grateful) but the reports said he didnt hang then either. The only reason i can put it down to is the ground being possibly firmer than it likes or that it hates daylight and needs to be brought late to win he seen a lot of daylight in the ballysax and today.
Any thoughts?

[andthereoff]

Personally I think Aidan O'Brien is going to try and make the running with Recital, just can't see how he could think he has a genuine classic winning colt with that demeanour and most certianly wouldn't want it coming from the rear at Epsom.

Think he best chance would just to set off in front like At First Sight?

[Hexham VIP]

Originally Posted by Hexham VIP

I was going to back recital on Saturday when he was 12s but in the end i didnt bother. I think it will drift again on the day possibly bigger than 12s. I am interested to know why in the last 2 races he has started to hang, he didn't do it on debut and i cant find a video of his group 1 win in france(if anyone finds a link i will be grateful) but the reports said he didnt hang then either. The only reason i can put it down to is the ground being possibly firmer than it likes or that it hates daylight and needs to be brought late to win he seen a lot of daylight in the ballysax and today. Any thoughts?

just read on twitter that there was a very strong headwind at Leopardstown today and be wary of the times, could that of caused the horse to hang as well?

[Spook]

A headwind usually means in the home straight, but it wouldn't make much (if any) difference at Leopardstown on this card if that was the case today given the distances the races were run over. If anything it would assist the horses that ran over further (like Recital) as they would have had an extended use of a tailwind coming down the back straight whereas the milers would only benefit from it for about 2F's before turning into it. All horses apart from the 6F sprint would otherwise run into for the same amount of distance in the home straight. I've got a feeling that the sprint course actually reverses anyway? in which they'd have run with a tailwind (times wouldn't support this). I can't find any evidence in the race times that wind was a factor anyway. In fact the adjusted times I've generated are quite tight ranging from +1.09 to +2.72, which is pretty good with just 1.63 secs (9.5L's) covering 7 different winners to class.

If anything, (looking at the times) I'd have said any wind was likely to have been a tailwind in the home straight

[Spook]

Originally Posted by The Duke

Seville was a horse I thought was O'Brien's number one contender, but looking at the placing it looks like being Recital,

Just to put a little bit of meat on the bones of this.

Between 2001 and 2003 O'Brien didn't even bother with the Dante. He skipped it again in 2007. During the period 2004 - 2006, and 2008 -2010 he's prepped the likes of;

Moscow Ballet, Albert Hall, Straight Forward, Black Bear Island, Frozen Fire, Cape Blanco, and Septimus there.

During the same period he's prepped plenty in the Derrinstown which include;

Galileo, Yeats, High Chapperal, Dylan Thomas, Fame and Glory, Midas Touch and Brian Boru

It's possible that he's shown a little bit more interest in the Dante in recent years, but any cursory examination of these two lists would leave you in little doubt as to where his 'A' team tends to be sent. I think it's English journalists who talk up the Dante to be honest and this is why O'Brien horses get over bet as a result of running there, as punters extrapolate the media feed off 'best trial = best O'Brien horse'. What would be the best placed Derby finish of those representatives? Come to think of it, how many of them lined up at Epsom?. I'm not sure that O'Brien necessarily shares the same enthusiasm for the Dante the media does, and just because they regard it as the premier trial, doesn't mean that Aiden does. It doesn't follow therefore that he sends his best horses there, even if most of the English trainers do as befits in Gp2 status. I think he's on his own private schedule that goes against the grain a bit, and sending a 'B' team or spolier to the Dante helps him get a handle on where he is possibly? whereas he can normally manage the pace and prep more effectively at Leopardstown. Possibly worth remembering too that after a cold winter and poor grass growth last term, Cape Blanco returned lame and Aiden got fined for refusing to play ball with the vet. We've had another cold winter and dry early spring, I'm surprised he's even sending a horse to be honest

I actually suspect that you might find he's got a better a record at bringing Derby horses on from Chester than he has York over the same period, and especially after teaming up with Fallon who we're led to believe helped convince him that Chester was a good place to warm up for Epsom. I think he's run more notable horses there since? Gypsy King and Golden Sword are two who come to mind

[Spook]

Coral's gone to 9's now. Another one signalling they don't want to get involved.

Tried watching it again, and he's clearly a difficult ride, but when they come past the 400 metre marker he's in joint last place (9th). When they come past the 300 marker he's 5th, when they come past the 200 metre mark, he's hit the front and in the joint lead. In other words he's shifted 8 Gp2 horses in the space of a furlong. The straight at St Cloud is only about 650 yds long at the most (3 furlongs) depending on how you allow for the run out of the bend (googleearth). He seems to start his run after they pass the other track. I'd say he's run for 500yds (2.25F's), but shifts the field in the space about 250yds (a little over a furlong), without being flogged over the final half of the assignment. In that regard it's a bit of a Workforce type effort. Epsom's straight is about 3.5 furlongs from the road at the bottom of Tattenham to the finish.

[Spook]

So Carlton House installed as new fav, and in the immediate aftermath, Frankel trading shorter than World Domination.

What's caught your eyes folks (though you might argue the Cocked Hat is still to be run)

[Spook]

Boylesports were top price last night about Pour Moi 12/1, into 6's this morning and shortest in the village. Not sure would it would take to shorten them up that much, but I'm drawing a sort of conclusion that it's likely to be Irish money. I expect Ladbrokes to lay a bit soon if only to balance their book, they can't have taken hardly anything on it so far, and even now 10's is the price which means they're still short

[Spook]

So with the trials all but over, this is where I’m at now reweighting everything to 9.0;

Pour Moi = 101.18 (Prix Grefhulle)
Recital = 97.51 (Ballysax)
Native Khan = 96.32 (Guineas)
Recital = 94.06 (Derrinstown)
Ocean War = 92.06 (Newmarket Mdn)
Native Khan = 92.04 (Craven)
World Domination = 91.75 (Newbury Mdn)
Memphis Tennessee = 90.79 (Derrinstown)
Masked Marvel = 88.29 (Goodwood)
Genius Beast = 84.67 (Sandown Trial)
Ocean War = 83.70 (Makfi Stks)
Treasure Beach = 79.36? (Chester Vase)
Nathaniel = 79.20? (Chester Vase)
Carlton House = 68.82? (Prix Dante)
Seville = 67.32? (Prix Dante)

Ok so I’m being sarcastic about the Dante, but it didn’t half remind me of a typical Prix Niel, and as a consequence it sets us a problem or two. I know Nick Mordin designed some kind of formula for building the final 3F’s of a slow race into a speed rating to try and equalise it in such a way as to gague a horses ability (but I’ve lost the piece of work and can’t remember how he did it). I’m not sure I was that convinced by it anyway. I’m less concerned by the Chester Vase as I’m not sure the collateral projections that I’ve kind of turned to suggest that this race will provide anything to threaten the judge, but the Dante seems to indicate it will.

The only horse that potentially ties Carlton House together is Yaseer having run against him as an immature 2yo. CH has beaten him 3L’s further as a 3yo which isn’t too far away from what you might expect, but then with Yaseer finishing last (beaten 1.75L’s by the 79 rated Ashva) you’d be a bit nervous about projecting off him anyway. If we say Yaseer ran 2.25L’s behind Native Khan on his penultimate start in the Craven for a figure of 89.79, and wa sbeaten 12L’s by CH we might estimate a performance figure of 101.79? (which would be at the top end). He’s beaten Marcus Tregoning’s colt by 9.75L’s further than Native Khan did in the Craven, and he’s come 3rd in a Guineas. If you tried adding that distance to his Guineas then (a dubious leap of faith) you get another figure of 106.07 which looks very high. You might turn to a 2yo indicator and Seville, who ran 96.07 in the Racing Post Trophy, which would suggest that CH is capable of 97.57 with another 3 points to go on for maturation and about 100.57.

None of this makes me feel comfortable though, and it’s just a question of playing around with a few projections and seeing if a picture builds up. I’d prefer to try and use 3yo evidence, which means relying on Yaseer (as already profiled to 101.79) and World Domination (who projects to 99.00). Basically I’ve got a basket of projection ratings for CH covering; 106.07, 101.79, 100.57, 99.00 and 96.07, which would give a mean average of 100.70. I think it would be saver to use an average that discounts the slowest and the fastest and settle for something like 100.45, or even discount the 2yo projection and use a sample of 4 and a median of 101.18 (which coincidentally is spot on what Pour Moi is) – personally I’d back a Ballydoyle horse should it ever come down to a battle of necks and heads, as they rarely go down without a fight. (...... except Pour Moi is an Andre Fabre horse!!!!...... I think I'll be making that mistake quite a few times between now and then)

The only other way I’ve tried looking at this (and it isn’t easy to section time CH and Pour Moi) is how much ground the two made up.

The straight at St Cloud is only about 2.5F’s long. Pour Moi is angled out at the 500m marker but is still in last place, and is about 10-11L’s off the lead. As they come past the 400m market he’s in joint last place with about 8 runners in front of him, but starting his run. At the 300m marker he’s accounted for half of them, and as they pass the 200m he’s starting to in the front. I’d estimate he’s shifted 8 horses in the space of about 230 metres, (a tad over 1 furlong) and picked up about 11L’s before going on to extend without ever being got serious with. Some of the beaten horses were left straggling much further adrift than Yaseer.

Carlton House by contrast appears to be caught a little flat footed when the Dante starts to get serious. At the 3F marker he’s about 2.5L’s behind Pisco Sour. At the 2F he’s only reduced this to about 1L, and by the 1F he’s opened up a 1L lead. I’m not so sure that 3.5L’s in the space of 2F’s over Pisco Sour is really Gp1 classic material, although he does run on to make that worth 6L’s over 3F’s by the time the post arrives.

Pisco Sour had an RPR of 99, compared to the horses that Pour Moi beat this isn’t massively impressive (Bubble Chic 110, Vandamar 108). Basically off a truer pace Pour Moi has put more distance between himself and better horses from further back, than Carlton House has done to Pisco Sour. But this wouldn’t account for Seville who has an RPR of 119 and has been betaen fair and square on the day (probably had about 3.5L’s – 4L’s taken out of him over 3F’s) which isn’t far off the sort of improvement O’Brien can coax out his horses for their second run.

So the result of the 2011 Derby is
1st = Pour Moi
hd = Carlton House
nk = Seville
3.5 = Recital
1.25 = Native Khan
4.25 = Ocean War
0.25 = World Domination
1 = Memphis Tennessee
2.5 = Masked Marvel
3.75 = Genius Beast
1.50 = Treasure Beach
nk = Nathaniel

[Spook]

Thanks for that email Luke, I'll have a look at it later and see if it makes sense to me!!!

I think section times for Carlton Houses last 3F's, Pour Moi's final 500 metres, and probably the Chester Vase for benchmarking the Dante might be interesting. If Pour Moi has been able to get close to Carlton House from what must have been a been quicker early pace (once you've done the adjustments for going), you might well have the answer. I suppose the Derrinstown ought to be looked at as well given that it took Recital a bit of time to overhaul the pacemaker.

500m = 2F's and 107 yds

[Spook]

Having read this all back now, I do detect just a few signs of repetition in places here and there Which at least means they're sincere views rather than being riddled with contradictions, and evidence of thoughts in progress.

This is where I think I've got to with the sections, though I'm not sure what they tell me or how far I can really take them. Accepting normal margins of error exist in hand timing, I've got the following

Carlton House 10F & 88yds - 2.13.49 final 3F's 34.50 secs
Pour Moi 10F - 2.03.02 final 500m's 28.90 secs

Clearly Pour Moi has been involved in the faster race and accelerated off a faster pace. Need to convert Pour Moi's section into a 3F estimate though;

500m = 2F's 107 yds (3yds short of being about 2 and half) so at face value they look quite evenly matched.

34.50/ 3 = 11.50 per furlong
28.90/ 2.5 = 11.56 per furlong

Need to convert (or try to convert) the St Cloud time.

28.90 secs / 547 yds = 0.05283 x 660yds (3F's) = 34.87 secs

34.87 - 34.50 = Carlton House was 0.37 secs faster.

I estimate the ground was riding +3.02 at St Cloud, and +2.74 at York per mile, which means Pour Moi has benefited for 0.105 secs per 3F's, and Carlton House is 0.475 secs faster, but Pour Moi carried 2Ibs more which I think gives him about a third of a length back over 3F's and adjusts to a final differential of about 0.42 secs in Carlton Houses favour.

Having said that, 25.8% of Carlton Houses race time was put up in the final 3F's compared to 28.3% of Pour Moi's suggesting of course that they went much slower early in the Dante and so we'd expect Carlton House to have more in the tank.

One possible angle (although I'm not reading too much into it) is the Carlton Houses slowest final section might have occurred between the 1F and finish. Again I'm not sure what this means? Was he being eased slightly? were the horses slowing down? was the result of a slight knock a bit earlier when they came together a bit. His quickest section is the 2F to 1F bit though I reckon, as he took a bit of time to respond initially.


Time to move onto the Oaks, Coronation Cup and Dash

[Spook]

O'Brien seems to be indicating that one of Recital or Seville will go to Chantilly. It's slightly difficult to read in truth, and complicated a little bit by Pour Moi representing Coolmore but not Ballydoyle. He's advising punters not to back anything until he's confirmed his running plans, and say's "we're very likely to be represented at Chantilly". In this case "we" must mean Ballydoyle, and the article itself doesn't mention Pour Moi (who is of course with Fabre - keep forgetting this, so used have I got to associating AOB and Coolmore runners). The article seemed to be suggesting that the focus was on his supposed 'big two', and it wouldn't take a genius to deduce that previous running history, comments made after the Derrinstown relating to Fallon's booking, and the fact that Seville was beaten by Carlton House, would lead you to think he's the more likely to line up in France. Pour Moi isn't discussed, but then O'Brien doesn't train him so can't really comment, but the fact that he's expecting to run one of his in France does lead you to think that he's aware of the mafia's intent to run Pour Moi at Epsom

The fly in the ointment I think is Roderic O'Connor. I'm not sure if he isn't necessarily regarded as the best 3yo at Ballydoyle. He was O'Brien guineas horse after all, before being taken off his feet in an extraordinary Guineas. I don't think he's become a bad horse over night, and the chances are he was saved after about 3F's. Indeed, you could argue the fact that he couldn't go with the pace in Guineas is an advertisement for a run in the Derby?. I'm moderately confident that if he lines up at Epsom, he'll prove to be the best of O'Briens yet, and could represent some tacit value at 50/1. Reminds me a little bit of the likes of Horatio Nelson and in a different context Henrythenavigator in the way he was written off or forgotten after one bad run and suddenly re-emerged. You might even throw the likes Eagle Mountain or Oratorio into that list who also failed to place in a Guineas. If Aiden still holds him the highest regard then I suspect he won't want to waste him at Chantilly, but of all his horses, he would be the most likely to be suited to the Prix Jockey Club too.

If..... and as always this is a big 'if', if Seville is to follow Cape Blanco and head to France, then that releases Roderic O'Connor for Epsom, and I suspect he's better than Recital. He was felt worthy enough to represent that stable at Newmarket and an O'Brien first string guineas horse shouldn't be ignored at 50's. I can actually see him winning the Irish 2000gns to be honest, which then sets them a bit of a puzzle.