Denman or Kauto Star: Cheltenham Gold Cup

[The Duke]

Well, like I think it was Broadsword who said it, all the threads between now and March regarding these two I felt it was only fair to get this up and running and get it promoted on the main site (soon to follow).

It sure looks to be a thrilling race, and you cannot rule out Imperial Commander, but in all honesty I think its these two who will fight it out come March.

So, who is going to win?

[broadsword]

I think I stand wrongly accused sir.I've said nowt apart from all the usual crap I spout.


But on the subject of Denman,Kauto I believe the stamina of the pair is the key.

Kauto would always beat Denman around Kempton.Around cheltenham on good ground Kauto would beat him on soft ground I believe Denman would win and if the ground is somewhere inbetween I believe its a coin flip.

Overall if you asked me who the better horse is I believe Kauto is.The difference being he can win big races when everything is against him.Which is something the likes of best mate couldn't do and is what IMO seperates Kauto from the others as a real GREAT and i don't say that lightly probably the best I've seen and I don't say that lightly either.

Saying that though Denman is still a fantastic animal and stands out as a real top horse but to me Kauto is in the elite club with the likes of Arkle.

[Corbiere]

uh uh...... It's usually which has the greater will to win which counts

They both have an utter and absolute WILL TO WIN

With both on song, something we have not seen yet, it will be the race of the millenium, and will - I'm sure of this - bottom them both

[skydog]

I thought Denman jumped like the proverbial today and took lengths out of his pursuers at numerous obstacles. Not that KS is a bad jumper BUT he can take the odd liberty. Another question though is IF Ruby rides KS in the GC WHO will ride Denman? Sam Thomas OR will they look elsewhere.

I just hope they both make the race and that the ground is perfect so then we can see who is numero uno!

[The Duke]

Christian Williams I'd imagine Tony, as I believe he is the second in command in the jockey ranks at Ditcheat now.

Although, I don't suppose Harry would mind trying to get Sam Thomas back up top after his performances on the horse to date.

[Spook]

I was rather late coming to Denman, albeit I remember the moment well. I never backed him as a novice hurdler and noted with a knowing smile the number of times BJK swerved him.

I'd been tracking the staying novice chasers of his SAC seaosn quite closely, convinced as I was that Denman wasn't the real deal. He'd be hitting the sort of figures that you neededto though, and was on a course that looked destined to end in the SAC, but it never had a sense of real excitement about him, as he was going in at about 92 (run of the mill for a good staying novice chaser, but not stellar).

My first breakthrough came in late November when I finally unearthed a horse that would beat him. To my surprise, it transpired to be 'Aces Four'. I duly announced it to another forum and earned a 'calm down' comment (or something to that affect) from David Parry!!! I'd found a horse that coudl lay it down to Denman though in my mind (and he was available at 80/1). Anyway, i assured David I thought the rating was genuine and not a rogue, and that he had a kosher SAC horse on his hands. To his great credit, David did admit later that I'd help plant the idea in his mind, as I'm sure they had an eye on the SAC, but i think I might have been amongst the first people who'd actually suggested they had the ammunition to win it.

Anyway, a few weeks later, and Denman went past Aces Four (not by much) but he'd gone to the top of the pile again. Damn!!! Then in January another horse ran two consecutive figures of 100+ in heavy ground and occupied the top positions on the ratings (Snowy Morning). Available at 25/1, I took a reasonable e/w bet and sat back to watch the boats come home. Snowy was a fair bit ahead of the others on ratings, but always at the back of my mind was the nagging doubt that both ratings had been put up on desperate ground, and that these figures just might prove meaningless come mid March at Chelters as they clearly would bear little resemblence to the task at hand.

So the festival came and Claisse declared 'soft' ground on the Tuesday and we all got a mullering. I de-camped with my tail between my legs to 'The Plough' after racing and it was the same story all-round. I hadn't laid a glove on the bookies, and don't think I ever really looked like winning anything. Twist Magic briefly raise dmy hopes, but he duly crashed before I got shouting. I got home at about 8pm and settled down to go over the days carnage. The first thing that struck was that MWDS had broken standard time in winning the Arkle. His time was the third fastest I held a record for!!! (about 10 years). This ground isn't soft I concluded. It's 'good'. I duly went back the next day and after Massinis Maguire had won at 25/1 I took stock of a few things. If i continued at this rate, then I'm looking at losing a grand. This ain't good.

Then the clouds parted and a beam of light shone down on me. Divine providence had decided to intervene on my behalf. Here I was in amongst 70,000 race-goers and I had this calling 5 minutes before the off. I distinctly heard this voice (only I could hear it) "IT'S DENMAN YOU SILLY FOOL". Yes it is, I thought. It's really been that easy all along. The ground is good not soft, and Denman is the horse that has been hitting the figures all winter on good ground. This run of outsiders in the feature races has to end soon. Well I wasn't likely to be able to get a bet on now, so I resorted to the phone and thought I'd test William Hills maximum stake limit on my account (self-imposed). I persuaded them to let me break it, and took a hefty lump for me (3 figures) on Denman. Within a few minutes the hole I was starring at had disappeared, and Snowy Morning landed the e/w bet too. An ante-post 8/1 on VPU followed and I even decided to row with Cork All Star. The day had been turned round. Before the festival was out, Turpin Green would place at 100/1 and Andreas would win at 20/1. It was only when I got home that the magintude of Denman's win became apparent. He'd leapt to the top of the SAC ratings earning a figure that was 5.75L's faster than his nearest on the pantheon (Florida Pearl). He'd opened up the sort of gap that had hiterto been the preseve of Moscow Flyer in the Arkle (8L's clear) and Detroit City in the Triumph (7L's). Denman's superiority over any other SAC winner was the third on the all time list of races I kept historical ratings for (Masterminded was to join them in the same bracket a couple of years later - 6.5L's).

I had him marked down for the 2008 Gold Cup at that moment. My next encounter was the 2007 Hennessy. The talk of the week had been kauto Star at Haydock, but Denman ran a particularly fast race and was heralded for his briliance in giving weight (the merit of the win has been revised down since) but I was on the phone to a Kauto fan within minutes as he came in to a standing ovation and appreciative applause going over the line. I thought I'd witnessed something a bit special (until today) and duly told the person on the other end of the phone that this was your Gold Cup winner, and not Kauto. Denman had gone slightly quicker than Kauto on my figures (not everyones i hasten to admit). I had him on 101.15. This was unusual indeed. I had two horses hitting 100+ in November. It pointed to them being capable of 110 in March when they'd be more finely tuned.

What impressed me about Denman was his ability to gallop through the sections relentlessly. He just served it furlong after furlong with sustained pressure pacing combined with clean, accurate and straight jumping. It was like watching a symphony unfold (it reminded me of Grieg's 'In the Hall fo the Mountain King). It was upbeat but gradually the tempo increased until there was nothing left standing, and it even had a sense of cheeky fun about it too.

This was his great strength (and a potential weakness too). I decided that if Denman set sail from about 10F's out he could do the same to kauto. The year previous Kauto hadn't had his suspect stamina tested, and he'd be going into untested territiory. By now i was convinced nothing could sustain a gallop and maintain its jumping fluency as well as Denman. Kauto might try and live with him, but even he would eventually have to cry 'No mas' if Sam Thomas was brave enough to say,' right lets get it on' and start his run from about half way down the back-straight.

When Gold Cup day came, Denman did the same again. He still occupies the top spot on my Gold Cup ratings with 109.10 (revised down from an initial 111.55).

Which brings me to today's effort;

Awesome!!!

The only weight carrying performance I can think of in recent times that you might stick alongside it was Well Chief giving 20Ibs to the 156 rated, Thisthatandtother in a Chandler rearranged for Cheltenham. Well Chief might have had the dreaded Cheltenham hill to bring him back to the field, but Denmans had to run an extra 10F's and do it softer ground. He's given 22Ibs away to a horse rated 152 and won by 1.5L's further. I'm sure that Phil Smith is going to waste little time sticking an extra 8Ibs or so on What A Friend, and it will transpire that what he's actually done is give 22Ibs away to a horse whose rated at least 160. Thisthatandtother my contrast was much more exposed. It's the greatest weight carrying performance I think i've ever seen.

Could Kauto have done it? I don't know. He couldn't give 14Ibs to the 165 rated Monets Garden in the Old Roan Chase remember first time out, when he lost by 1.5L's. Could he have given 22Ib's to a horse we mght assess as being worthy of 160 which is what I believe Denman will have transpired to have done?

It seems sensible to try and use Barbers Shop to rate it. Denman's given 18Ibs to a horse rated 156 and beaten him by 7L's. That's the same rating as Thisthatandtother, which means that he's given 2Ibs less than Well Chief did, but won by a margin thats worth it (about 5L's more). So I'll call it the best weight carrying performance in my racing memory.

In March Denman he had beaten Barbers Shop by 20L's, so in effect he was 13L's slower today for the 18Ibs concession. At 26.5F's, 18Ibs is worth about 27.5L's. Had Barbers Shop raced off level weights then, Denman would have beaten him by 35.5L's (27.5L's for the increase in weight + 7L's for the winning distance). This would suggest he's improved 15L's on his Gold Cup second (enough to beat Kauto Star by 2L's) but we might reasonably expect Kauto to be fighting a finish instead of coming home under less pressure. They should be neck and neck imo.

They said he was back to his best. Well today I clocked him in at 108.55 (this compares very favourably with the 101 he recorded in 2007). He's not back, he's better!!! Furthermore, his winning Gold Cup figure was 109.10 so he's only a little bit below that. He might be coming to the peak of his powers this year, and being a more sturdy Irish bred, it's just possible there's even more improvement to come. On this schedule he'd be expected to hit new heights now all things being equal.

But that could be the sting the tail yet. His great strength is his ability to crank it up by consistantly hitting the sections at speed with no let up. A horse can only race like this for so long at these distances, and they'll need to be careful about how many times they allow him to do this. Kauto has the greater tactical speed, but Denman should be able to dictate the pace and it's going to pose Ruby a problem. How much of a lead is he prepared to let Denman have if he sees him going for home 10F's out?. By the very nature of the encounter, a horse can dictate a fast pace, but you can't dictate a slower one, if somethign else wants to go quicker. In other words, its much easier for Denman to set the race up to suit his strengths, then it would be Kauto.

There's two things to consider here I feel, and one of them wouldn't normally be one that I pay that much attention to.

With all the focus on the horses, we could be looking in the wrong direction. This is going to be one encounter where the pilots are going to be central to the outcome. This will be all about judgement of pace and few (if any) are better than Walsh. The question of deciding when to let Denman loose is central to the equation. Go too soon, and any horse can blow up eventually. Go too late and you'll be sitting a duck for Kauto to pick up with tactical speed if you haven't blunted him. I think Denman has to err on the side of going too soon if anything. Give the horse the chance to hang on, or lose it etc. If he leaves it too late, and kauto comes to him, then Kauto will pick him up. He's got try and break Kauto Star and play to stamina and speed through the sections. It will also set Ruby the puzzle on kauto, in terms of how much rope he'll let Denman have before he decides he's got to give chase.

Hitting the button on Denman is probably the easy bit (that's a choice that can be made between now and March, and there's enough sectional telemetary and methods known to maths and physics to work out where the optimal point is in the race in terms of distance from home). What the pilot (whoever it is) has to do next is keep going through the sections at the correct even pace. Go too quickly, and the horse will blow up. It's going to be an exercise in pace judgement, and you can easily see that it could be tempting to over do it coming down the hill, only to empty going up the straight.

The other thing to note of course will be jumping. If Denman goes from about 10F's out and decides to stretch the sections at speed, then both his and Kauto's jumping accuracy is going to be under pressure and penalised like never before. If you look at the way he took the cross fence today (about 3 out) then you tend to think that Denman puts in the kind of race defining jump with greater regularity (especially at the business end when fatigue has to be an issue) than Kauto does.

Somehow I sense it won't quite happen however. Racing has a habit of shotting itself in the foot, or things not turning out according to the script. There's a lot that can go wrong between now and March.

I always supported Ovett over Coe, and I tend to side with Denman over Kauto. I'd be pretty confident at this stage that Ruby Walsh will side with Kauto, and can't help thinking the choice of pilot for Denman is going to be critical. He's going to need an aggressive forcing ride, and I'd be amazed if messers Findlay/ Barber aren't thinking about AP McCoy even at this stage.

[Corbiere]

Think of the loyalty factors at play today, Ruby chose Denman (rightly) but who got the ride on the yard punt? it could have been CW but it was Sam - said a lot to me

[wyncrg]

Along way to the big day at Cheltenham but its a race that we will be talking about for a long time am a DENMAN fan and will be with him in March if all well with him i always go back two years ago when Denman won the Gold Cup both horses fit and well and Danman come out on top ok last season Kauto won but it wasnt the real deal Danman so with that am with Danman again but its along time tothe big day just hope both make it in good heart to the big day.

[Corbiere]

Kauto was not fit and well the year Denman won! We have not yet seen them race when they are both 'right'

PS Spook is right that pace will be all important, and Ruby of course knows both horses so well, he will know how best to beat whchiever one he's not riding

[skydog]

Nice piece Spook and some interesting points.

I envisage that we will see Denman start to increase the pace going out onto the final circuit (ala his 07 win) and then just let him bowl down the hill before the final push from the tricky,is it 2nd or 3rd last, but whichever, I feel he will have by now have got KS in trouble because, has you have said, the emphasis on jumping will be paramount and in a jumping contest I would side with Denman. Only my opinion of course.

Interesting comment on the jockey's too Corbiere. Does Tom George have a Gold Cup contender?? Obviously if he does Sam will surely be on that whatever chance it has. I personally don't think C WIlliams would get the ride.

[givemeabreak]

Such a long way off and we can only hope nothing untoward happens to either before the big day, if that happens i believe we will see something very special from Denman, looking at all the meat and muscle he has got back i can't believe they have worked this to the full and will have left plenty still to work with and if that is the case i can only see one outcome, cant remember the last time i came out of my seat like i did when he jumped the last on Saturday and look forward to doing so again.

[broadsword]

Spook I'm a huge fan of your work but your argument for Denman is a bit one sided fella.With a comment like Kauto failed to beat Monets garden at whatever ratings in the old roan is a ridiculous comparison to Denmans triumph yesterday.Denmans ideal coditions and I think this is proven is 3m 2f + in soft ground so when you assess Denman at his very best.To even compare that to a performance by Kauto around Aintree over 2m 4f is a bit like mustard and fish..it just dosen't go.I think its all agreed that Kauto is absolutley at his best around Kempton take a look at his 3 King georges look at some of the horses behind him at his best a 177 rated chaser beat 11 lengths plus,Monets Garden beat a distance I'd bet he could have give him 3 stone around there and countless other highly rated chasers absolutley trounced they can't all have ran bad races.The fact that Kauto has beat Denman around Cheltenham and won gold cups just shows the extra quality this horse has in versatility.I'm quite sure that so long as theres a hole in my arse Denman couldn't beat Kauto around Kempton on good ground and I very much doubt he could do it recieving 2 stone from the master.


Kauto the great! Kauto the Marvelous ! Its Kauto star !

[Spook]

It was the best I had to work off.

I was looking for an example of Kauto giving weight away to something first time out. There just aren't many of examples of it. He failed to give Monkerhostin 4Ibs in a Haldon Cup, but gave Armaturk 11Ibs to win by a wide margin at Liverpool. In any event, he was too low in his own ratings at the time and might have been well handicapped himself.

Lets not forget that kauto was the defending Tingle Creek champion at the time that the Old Roan race was run, so there was no reason to believe that he'd be well short of his trip at 20F's. Indeed he beat a horse by 7L's (VPU) who would go on to be crowned Champion Chaser only a few months later, so 20F's as an opener to the following season would have been within his compass and shouldn't have found him caught flat for pace at a trip to short. Of level weight he'd have beaten Monets Garden and for 2007 at least, I think you'd have lttle difficulty making the argument that Kauto Star was the best chaser in training at trips from 2 miles to 3.25 miles. I've got little doubt that he'd have beaten VPU again, and Taranis over the intermediate distance. The only horse in training that might have got him under pressure would have been Well Chief at 2 miles, but like Kauto Star the season before, he crashed out early.

[kidoncricketer]

mm, all the variables regarding what denman has to beat kauto look about rigt to me.

if both are fit and well, i totally agree with corbiere that there would be the potential to have bottomed both out.

if denman does everything right and sets the optimum pace for him, then imo kauto star will still be stalking him going to the last.
THEN and only then would we have the answer, and that hill would just make me think denman.

but if the margins are wrong. (and its tough to get them right) then kauto would have a carbon copy win.


this is a race where I HOPE that both make it safe and sound,

and its a no bet race for me.

denman all the way.

[broadsword]

Originally Posted by Spook

It was the best I had to work off. I was looking for an example of Kauto giving weight away to something first time out. There just aren't many of examples of it. He failed to give Monkerhostin 4Ibs in a Haldon Cup, but gave Armaturk 11Ibs to win by a wide margin at Liverpool. In any event, he was too low in his own ratings at the time and might have been well handicapped himself. Lets not forget that kauto was the defending Tingle Creek champion at the time that the Old Roan race was run, so there was no reason to believe that he'd be well short of his trip at 20F's. Indeed he beat a horse by 7L's (VPU) who would go on to be crowned Champion Chaser only a few months later, so 20F's as an opener to the following season would have been within his compass and shouldn't have found him caught flat for pace at a trip to short. Of level weight he'd have beaten Monets Garden and for 2007 at least, I think you'd have lttle difficulty making the argument that Kauto Star was the best chaser in training at trips from 2 miles to 3.25 miles. I've got little doubt that he'd have beaten VPU again, and Taranis over the intermediate distance. The only horse in training that might have got him under pressure would have been Well Chief at 2 miles, but like Kauto Star the season before, he crashed out early.

I agree with all of the above Spook but although Kauto has won good races over 2m and 2m4f it would be very unfair to bring any of that into an overall rating.Best mate similary won over shorter distances but would have achieved all of his best ratings in the Gold cup on decent ground.I don't disagree that maybe all in all Denman is capable of a better run than Kauto over the Gold cup course and distance and could quite possibly beat him well in it if the ground was on the softer side but it wouldn't matter a sniff to me as an overall rating of the horses as the way i still look at it is the Gold cup is an away fixture for Kauto and hes twice gone there and won. Kempton is his home fixture and most don't bother turning up.

I think facing facts they are both extrordinary animals and to compare them is a bit unfair 3miles and under is kautos all the way 3m5f + would be Denmans all the way and of course that Gold cup Distance of 3m 2f is well who knows, it'll be a cracking show.


And Just a point that if the race you are metioning about Well Chief giving the weight away was the one in which Kaddaran finished 3rd that race really sticks out in my mind for 2 reasons.One because I couldn't quite believe what I had seen and secondly because I'd had a huge E/w bet on Kadarran thinking at the weights Well chief stood no chance and I think that was the last post I put up in my 1st stint on Ohr.I wish I could remember my user name from back then but it escapes me.Its also flooded my memory back to the dingey little council flat I used to reside in,in a place the locals refer to as little bhagdad! That was of course until the good lady came along and brightened up my life

Thanks for bringing that up Spook its reminded me even though I've had a bad few days how far I've come since back then

[Corbiere]

All excellent stuff and well reasoned from all posters regarding the relative chances of the horses

I think we are all agreed there are two pricicpal factors at work here:

- The ground - soft will favour Denman's strength; good will favour KS's tactical speed

- The pace - much will depend on the jockey riding Denman, for reasons perfectly expressed by Spook:
" By the very nature of the encounter, a horse can dictate a fast pace, but you can't dictate a slower one, if something else wants to go quicker. In other words, its much easier for Denman to set the race up to suit his strengths, then it would be Kauto. "

My guess is that although Denman is an armchair ride they will prefer to stick with a jockey who has won on him so often, ie Sam Thomas (and I'm sure Tom George would let him off to ride the horse even if he had one good enough to run). The fact he rode WAF on Saturday tells me that. The interesting thing would be if the gorund is slow and Ruby decides to opt for Denman... then you would need a jock with real stickability for Kauto, and I doubt Sam would be the right man.

Having watched KS race so many times and having talked now to a few who know him, I'm becoming convinced Kauto tends to make jumping errors at the business end not because he's a poor jumper but because he starts getting distracted by the crowd, and that may cost him.

He's a real 'people person' and always interested in and taking in what's going on around him. I think the noise and crowds at the end of a race distract him - and you can see and hear them from the second last at Cheltenham.

So you would need a jockey who knows him and his quirks.

Denman on the other hand isn't interested in anything except his race - he doesn't look right or left, just concentrates on his fencing. Even after the race on Saturday, with all those hordes in the WE, he didn't lift his head to look at them all, not even when being parading round to applause and cheers. WAF got distracted both by Denman and the yelling jumping crowds on Saturday - Denman didn't get distracted by anything, He was aware each time another came near him and pulled out a bit - but never looked round once! Amazing stuff.

I'm sure Barber would never consent to AP riding Denman - AP left them in lurch many years ago: I can't remember which horse now, but it was a big race and AP got off at the last minute to ride one of Pipe's - and got the 'Pipe job' shortly after. Barber said he'd never ride one of theirs again, and I don't think he has, although AP does now get the odd very rare ride for the yard... It's all in Nicholls book.

My guess is Ruby will stay loyal to Kauto who is not the easiest of rides, and Sam will get the Denman ride again, with Christian riding whichever other horse they put in (poss as pacemaker! - though they will try to avoid the big Winners' Enc row of last year LOL).

There is no substitute for knowing a horse, in a big race like that.

[skydog]

This may be off kilter but for the younger members if you want to see a really tremendous race with an astounding weight carrying feat look for the Desert Orchid/Panto Prince race at Ascot, I think but may have been Sandown,it was a corker!!

[skydog]

So McCoy gets the Denman ride. Not a big surprise really.