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**Palmersears** · **08-03-09**, **11:43 PM**

Cheltenham- Thursday 12th March 2009

1:30 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (2m5f)

Key Trends:

The last three winners of this race carried 10st 11lbs or 10st 12lbs, highlighting the need for a relatively unexposed sort.

All four winners have been aged seven years old.

All four winners finished either first or second lto.

Relatively unexposed horses have been the norm, with no winner having won more than once over fences prior to the race.

Another decent statistical race to start day three, which is nice. Attention is immediately switched to the 21 seven year olds, 5 of whom (Clarified, Kia Kaha, Or Bleu, Exmoor Ranger and Slash And Burn) are carrying the required weight.

Clarified finished 3rd lto at Gowran Park, so that is a negative, however it has only won once, at Punchestown back in December 2008.

Kia Kaha won it's previous race at Fakenham in January, however he appears a wee bit exposed, having won twice over fences, with a win at Ludlow to add to it's latest success.

Or Bleu is another who has won their previous race, at Chepstow back in February. However he too seems a bit exposed, having chalked up a win at Bangor in November as well.

Exmoor Ranger has also won lto at Exeter in Decemeber, but again is another exposed soret having won at the same venue back in October.

Slash And Burn is the only one of the five contenders not to win lto, infact he's never won over fences, with two seconds at Ascot the sum total of this years form.

In conclusion, a case can be made for all five. The first four have all won over fences, but multiple wins for all four may have seen the handicapper get on top of them slightly. the least exposed looks to be Slash and Burn, however with no wins over fences you'd would have doubts. What swings it for me is the fact that Kia Kaha has C&D form, and would be the tentative e/w selection.

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2:05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3m)

Key Trends:

6 to 9 year olds have won 11 out of the last 11 runnings.

7 of the last 12 (58%) of winners had won their previous race. However four of the last twelve (33%) finished unplaced lto.

Higher weights tend to be better suited, with the range 10-6 to 11-7 winning 9 out of 11 (81%).

Some interesting if not all together concise stats for this Handicap Hurdle. 7 can be ruled out by age, with most of the remained ruled out by on weight, leaving 16. The stats are clearly stacked in favour of those who won lto, leaving us with only one, Jonjo O'Neill's Synchronised, ticking all the boxes.

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3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3m)

Key Trends:

18 of the last 19 winners (94%) of the stayers hurdle have been between 6-8 years old.

The last eight winners had all finished either first or second lto.

The last eight winners have all started at 8/1 or smaller.

Eleven of the last twelve winners (91%) had previously finished 1st or 2nd in a top grade hurdle race.

Nine of the last twelve winners (75%) had previously been placed at the Festival.

Potential Winners MUST HAVE:

Been trained in the UK or France.

Run in the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if running at the previous year’s Festival (All of the past winners of this have).

Finished 1st or 2nd in the World Hurdle if participating in it the year before. (All of the past winners have).

Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (All the last 9 winners have).

Unsurprisingly it is the first three in the betting, Kasbah Bliss, Punchestowns and Big Bucks who meet the majority of the stats to emerge as most likely World Hurdle Winners.

Kasbah Bliss, trained in France, finished second in this last year and won lto at Haydock on Valentine's Day. He's bang in the middle of the ideal age range, the above win is another positive, as is his second here last year.

Punchestowns is a French bred English trained horse, however he's never run at the Festival before, and finished second lto to Big Bucks at this venue. 6 years old, so just meeting the age requirements.

Big Bucks is another French bred, English trainer horse. Won at Cheltenham ahead of Punchestowns in January, however he only ran in the Jewson last year, finishing 7th, which is a negative.

Overall it's clear Kasbah Bliss is the statistical pick, with his second in this last year adding an element of experience to him that the other two cannot match.

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4:00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate (2m5f)

Key Trends:

9 out of the last 11 winners had an offical rating of between 128 and 141.

15 out of the last 17 winners (88%) had run at the Cheltenham Festival before.

11 out of the last 12 winners (91%) carried 11st 3lbs or less.

8 out of 12 (66%) were placed in their previous race.

Martin Pipe had a good record in this race with four winners from the last nine runnings (44%).

After applying the OR filter we're left with 20 potential selections, a figure that's trimmed to 8 when you consider previous runners at the Festival. All 8 carrying less than the maximum 'winnable' weight, however only two, Something Wells, & Le Burf placed on their last outing.

Something Wells came second in a Group 2 at Chepstow in February, with Le Burf winning a Group 3 at Kempton. Preference is for Something Wells.

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4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m1f110y)

Key Trends:

Only four winners in the last 20 years have carried over 11 stone in weight.

Only two winners out of the last eleven had an official rating over 128.

Eight and nine year olds have the best record having won around three quarters of the races to date.

An in-form horse is a must with recent winners showing placed form within their last three runs.

32(!) are left after the weight stat, with all coming under the OR of 128. 15 are left when you consider the most successful ages, and 7, Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan's Future, That's Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star remain after you consider their past three runs. All are comfortably 25/1 or bigger, and if I have time I'll try and narrow it down further tommorrow.

Gold Cup day stats to come tommorrow.

08-03-09, 11:43 PM	#13 (permalink)
Palmersears Mmmmm Hayley Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester	Cheltenham- Thursday 12th March 2009 1:30 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (2m5f) Key Trends: The last three winners of this race carried 10st 11lbs or 10st 12lbs, highlighting the need for a relatively unexposed sort. All four winners have been aged seven years old. All four winners finished either first or second lto. Relatively unexposed horses have been the norm, with no winner having won more than once over fences prior to the race. Another decent statistical race to start day three, which is nice. Attention is immediately switched to the 21 seven year olds, 5 of whom (Clarified, Kia Kaha, Or Bleu, Exmoor Ranger and Slash And Burn) are carrying the required weight. Clarified finished 3rd lto at Gowran Park, so that is a negative, however it has only won once, at Punchestown back in December 2008. Kia Kaha won it's previous race at Fakenham in January, however he appears a wee bit exposed, having won twice over fences, with a win at Ludlow to add to it's latest success. Or Bleu is another who has won their previous race, at Chepstow back in February. However he too seems a bit exposed, having chalked up a win at Bangor in November as well. Exmoor Ranger has also won lto at Exeter in Decemeber, but again is another exposed soret having won at the same venue back in October. Slash And Burn is the only one of the five contenders not to win lto, infact he's never won over fences, with two seconds at Ascot the sum total of this years form. In conclusion, a case can be made for all five. The first four have all won over fences, but multiple wins for all four may have seen the handicapper get on top of them slightly. the least exposed looks to be Slash and Burn, however with no wins over fences you'd would have doubts. What swings it for me is the fact that Kia Kaha has C&D form, and would be the tentative e/w selection. ------------------------------------------------------------ 2:05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3m) Key Trends: 6 to 9 year olds have won 11 out of the last 11 runnings. 7 of the last 12 (58%) of winners had won their previous race. However four of the last twelve (33%) finished unplaced lto. Higher weights tend to be better suited, with the range 10-6 to 11-7 winning 9 out of 11 (81%). Some interesting if not all together concise stats for this Handicap Hurdle. 7 can be ruled out by age, with most of the remained ruled out by on weight, leaving 16. The stats are clearly stacked in favour of those who won lto, leaving us with only one, Jonjo O'Neill's Synchronised, ticking all the boxes. ------------------------------------------------------------ 3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3m) Key Trends: 18 of the last 19 winners (94%) of the stayers hurdle have been between 6-8 years old. The last eight winners had all finished either first or second lto. The last eight winners have all started at 8/1 or smaller. Eleven of the last twelve winners (91%) had previously finished 1st or 2nd in a top grade hurdle race. Nine of the last twelve winners (75%) had previously been placed at the Festival. Potential Winners MUST HAVE: Been trained in the UK or France. Run in the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if running at the previous year’s Festival (All of the past winners of this have). Finished 1st or 2nd in the World Hurdle if participating in it the year before. (All of the past winners have). Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (All the last 9 winners have). Unsurprisingly it is the first three in the betting, Kasbah Bliss, Punchestowns and Big Bucks who meet the majority of the stats to emerge as most likely World Hurdle Winners. Kasbah Bliss, trained in France, finished second in this last year and won lto at Haydock on Valentine's Day. He's bang in the middle of the ideal age range, the above win is another positive, as is his second here last year. Punchestowns is a French bred English trained horse, however he's never run at the Festival before, and finished second lto to Big Bucks at this venue. 6 years old, so just meeting the age requirements. Big Bucks is another French bred, English trainer horse. Won at Cheltenham ahead of Punchestowns in January, however he only ran in the Jewson last year, finishing 7th, which is a negative. Overall it's clear Kasbah Bliss is the statistical pick, with his second in this last year adding an element of experience to him that the other two cannot match. ------------------------------------------------------------ 4:00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate (2m5f) Key Trends: 9 out of the last 11 winners had an offical rating of between 128 and 141. 15 out of the last 17 winners (88%) had run at the Cheltenham Festival before. 11 out of the last 12 winners (91%) carried 11st 3lbs or less. 8 out of 12 (66%) were placed in their previous race. Martin Pipe had a good record in this race with four winners from the last nine runnings (44%). After applying the OR filter we're left with 20 potential selections, a figure that's trimmed to 8 when you consider previous runners at the Festival. All 8 carrying less than the maximum 'winnable' weight, however only two, Something Wells, & Le Burf placed on their last outing. Something Wells came second in a Group 2 at Chepstow in February, with Le Burf winning a Group 3 at Kempton. Preference is for Something Wells. ------------------------------------------------------------ 4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m1f110y) Key Trends: Only four winners in the last 20 years have carried over 11 stone in weight. Only two winners out of the last eleven had an official rating over 128. Eight and nine year olds have the best record having won around three quarters of the races to date. An in-form horse is a must with recent winners showing placed form within their last three runs. 32(!) are left after the weight stat, with all coming under the OR of 128. 15 are left when you consider the most successful ages, and 7, Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan's Future, That's Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star remain after you consider their past three runs. All are comfortably 25/1 or bigger, and if I have time I'll try and narrow it down further tommorrow. Gold Cup day stats to come tommorrow.