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**Palmersears** · **08-03-09**, **10:25 PM**

Cheltenham, Wednesday March 11th 2009

1:30 139th Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (4m)

Key Trends:

No horse younger than 7 has won in the past 20 years.

7 year olds have won the last four runnings.

J P McManus has owned four winners and four placed horses.

JJ O'Neil has trained four of the last six winners.

No stats selection, there just isn't enough solid data to whittle them down with. Hope the above guides you towards the winner though

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2:05 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)

Key Trends:

Favourites have won four of the eleven races (36%) with only one winner going off bigger than 12/1.

Form with lots of 1s and maybe the odd 2 is usually the normal pattern for a winner.

Four year olds have a poor record and only one winner has been older than seven in the last decade.

The above isn't the best for picking a firm selection, with all those smaller than 12/1 having very solid form, with plenty of wins to their name. Indeed with all the entries aged 5, 6 or 7 the last stat is redundant, and this really does look like any one from the top six stats-wise.

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2:40 RSA Chase (3m110y)

Key Trends:

Each of the last ten winners finished placed in their most recent run.

All had won at least one race in the current season.

Seven or eight year olds have won 12 out of the last 14 runnings.

Some decent trends here, but in conjunction they fail to find a stand-out selection. Whilst the first point accounts for Hold 'Em, Lodge Lane, Shining Gale, The Market Man and Bohemian Lass, all the remaining horses have won this season, and there are only 5 more that can be excluded on the grounds of age, leaving us with 9 potential candidates! Adivce? Take your pick from those 9 and use minimum stakes!

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3:20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)

A potential winner mast have:

Run in a chase at the Festival the year before if it competed. (10 out of 10)

Won a race that season. (10 out of 10)

Had 3 or 4 races that season or have a 100% record that season prior to the Festival.

Won at least one race at Cheltenham if it has raced there before.

Master Minded is so far ahead statistically but he offers no value whatsoever, and trying to find a winner without him is a little tricky, but here goes.

After the first two stats are taken in to consideration we're left with ScotsIrish, who finished 7th in the Arkle last season and who won at Cork in December and Tidal Bay, winner of the Arkle last season and a winner at Carlisle in November.

Both have had the required amount of runs this season, and so we're left with the final stat to determine the selection. Scotsirish is ruled out, finishing no better than 7th last year, leaving us with Tidal Bay. However if Johnson swerves this and heads for the Ryanair Chase with his charge then Scotsirish gets the nod.

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4:00 Coral Cup (2m5f)

Key trends:

Ten of the last twelve winners (83%) carried 11st or less.

Winners unlikely to come from out of the handicap. Nine out of the last ten wins have come from horses in the top 2/3rds of the handicap,

Four trainers have a really good record in this race; Edward O'Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O'Neil.

Again, not a lot of serious statistical muscle to throw around here. The weight stat only rules three out, and the handicap is fairly none-commital too. Statistically, one to avoid.

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5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (2m110y)

Key Trends:

Four year olds have a poor record with the 7lb weight for age allowance appearing to be insufficient to compensate for their lack of experience.

Eleven out of the last twelve winners (91%) finished 1st or 2nd on their previous run.

The Irish have won ten of the last twelve races (83%).

Willie Mullins has trained six of the last twelve winners (50%).

A feast of decent trends here. We immediately rule out the four years olds, and are left with 24 potential winners to sort out. Long Strand and Benbane Head are also cast aside, failing to finish higher than 4th lto. There are a bucketload of Irish challengers again, so that stat is redundant, and with a staggering nine runners it looks likely that Mr Mullins will be occupying the winners enclosure yet again in the Champion Bumper.

08-03-09, 10:25 PM	#12 (permalink)
Palmersears Mmmmm Hayley Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Manchester	Cheltenham, Wednesday March 11th 2009 1:30 139th Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (4m) Key Trends: No horse younger than 7 has won in the past 20 years. 7 year olds have won the last four runnings. J P McManus has owned four winners and four placed horses. JJ O'Neil has trained four of the last six winners. No stats selection, there just isn't enough solid data to whittle them down with. Hope the above guides you towards the winner though ------------------------------------------------------------ 2:05 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (2m5f) Key Trends: Favourites have won four of the eleven races (36%) with only one winner going off bigger than 12/1. Form with lots of 1s and maybe the odd 2 is usually the normal pattern for a winner. Four year olds have a poor record and only one winner has been older than seven in the last decade. The above isn't the best for picking a firm selection, with all those smaller than 12/1 having very solid form, with plenty of wins to their name. Indeed with all the entries aged 5, 6 or 7 the last stat is redundant, and this really does look like any one from the top six stats-wise. ------------------------------------------------------------ 2:40 RSA Chase (3m110y) Key Trends: Each of the last ten winners finished placed in their most recent run. All had won at least one race in the current season. Seven or eight year olds have won 12 out of the last 14 runnings. Some decent trends here, but in conjunction they fail to find a stand-out selection. Whilst the first point accounts for Hold 'Em, Lodge Lane, Shining Gale, The Market Man and Bohemian Lass, all the remaining horses have won this season, and there are only 5 more that can be excluded on the grounds of age, leaving us with 9 potential candidates! Adivce? Take your pick from those 9 and use minimum stakes! ------------------------------------------------------------ 3:20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m) A potential winner mast have: Run in a chase at the Festival the year before if it competed. (10 out of 10) Won a race that season. (10 out of 10) Had 3 or 4 races that season or have a 100% record that season prior to the Festival. Won at least one race at Cheltenham if it has raced there before. Master Minded is so far ahead statistically but he offers no value whatsoever, and trying to find a winner without him is a little tricky, but here goes. After the first two stats are taken in to consideration we're left with ScotsIrish, who finished 7th in the Arkle last season and who won at Cork in December and Tidal Bay, winner of the Arkle last season and a winner at Carlisle in November. Both have had the required amount of runs this season, and so we're left with the final stat to determine the selection. Scotsirish is ruled out, finishing no better than 7th last year, leaving us with Tidal Bay. However if Johnson swerves this and heads for the Ryanair Chase with his charge then Scotsirish gets the nod. ------------------------------------------------------------ 4:00 Coral Cup (2m5f) Key trends: Ten of the last twelve winners (83%) carried 11st or less. Winners unlikely to come from out of the handicap. Nine out of the last ten wins have come from horses in the top 2/3rds of the handicap, Four trainers have a really good record in this race; Edward O'Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O'Neil. Again, not a lot of serious statistical muscle to throw around here. The weight stat only rules three out, and the handicap is fairly none-commital too. Statistically, one to avoid. ------------------------------------------------------------ 5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (2m110y) Key Trends: Four year olds have a poor record with the 7lb weight for age allowance appearing to be insufficient to compensate for their lack of experience. Eleven out of the last twelve winners (91%) finished 1st or 2nd on their previous run. The Irish have won ten of the last twelve races (83%). Willie Mullins has trained six of the last twelve winners (50%). A feast of decent trends here. We immediately rule out the four years olds, and are left with 24 potential winners to sort out. Long Strand and Benbane Head are also cast aside, failing to finish higher than 4th lto. There are a bucketload of Irish challengers again, so that stat is redundant, and with a staggering nine runners it looks likely that Mr Mullins will be occupying the winners enclosure yet again in the Champion Bumper.